Michael Roberts
@mikejrob.bsky.social
An economist who studies agriculture, climate change, energy, and sometimes other environmental and resource issues.
Blog: https://grainsgigawatts.substack.com
Blog: https://grainsgigawatts.substack.com
It took 15 years for the Nasdaq to return to .com peak after the bubble burst. Another ~10.5 years to grow 4.5 X.
But this time is different, right?
...Right?
But this time is different, right?
...Right?
October 9, 2025 at 7:24 AM
It took 15 years for the Nasdaq to return to .com peak after the bubble burst. Another ~10.5 years to grow 4.5 X.
But this time is different, right?
...Right?
But this time is different, right?
...Right?
Krugman asks why Republicans support such obviously destructive things.
Great examples in his column. But his essential answer is in the quote.
"https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-does-the-right-reject-progress.
Great examples in his column. But his essential answer is in the quote.
"https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-does-the-right-reject-progress.
September 5, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Krugman asks why Republicans support such obviously destructive things.
Great examples in his column. But his essential answer is in the quote.
"https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-does-the-right-reject-progress.
Great examples in his column. But his essential answer is in the quote.
"https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-does-the-right-reject-progress.
August 30, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Trump & Republicans: It's not just the abject cruelty, and the stupidity of giving the future to China.
In a better world, the US-China rivalry would foster competition for the betterment of all humanity.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/o...
In a better world, the US-China rivalry would foster competition for the betterment of all humanity.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/o...
July 17, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Trump & Republicans: It's not just the abject cruelty, and the stupidity of giving the future to China.
In a better world, the US-China rivalry would foster competition for the betterment of all humanity.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/o...
In a better world, the US-China rivalry would foster competition for the betterment of all humanity.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/o...
The main reason why the DOW is up and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down is the Big Beautiful Bill slashes Medicaid, which will force millions of poor people to to buy overpriced insurance from the private sector.
July 1, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The main reason why the DOW is up and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down is the Big Beautiful Bill slashes Medicaid, which will force millions of poor people to to buy overpriced insurance from the private sector.
Dividend yield of the S&P is approaching an all-time low. www.multpl.com/s-p-500-divi...
June 30, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Dividend yield of the S&P is approaching an all-time low. www.multpl.com/s-p-500-divi...
The Shiller PE ratio is in nose bleed territory. Perhaps we should reconsider rational expectations? www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
June 30, 2025 at 11:47 PM
The Shiller PE ratio is in nose bleed territory. Perhaps we should reconsider rational expectations? www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
David Brooks is being generous. This tiresome narrative is 85-90% bonkers.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/o...
May 22, 2025 at 9:49 PM
David Brooks is being generous. This tiresome narrative is 85-90% bonkers.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/o...
The 30-year TIPS real yield just hit an all-time high.
It should look like a steal in a world of rising tariff risks, potential Fed interference, and future inflation.
Too good to be true?
Markets might be sniffing out something worse: default risk.
www.multpl.com/30-year-real...
It should look like a steal in a world of rising tariff risks, potential Fed interference, and future inflation.
Too good to be true?
Markets might be sniffing out something worse: default risk.
www.multpl.com/30-year-real...
May 17, 2025 at 7:12 AM
The 30-year TIPS real yield just hit an all-time high.
It should look like a steal in a world of rising tariff risks, potential Fed interference, and future inflation.
Too good to be true?
Markets might be sniffing out something worse: default risk.
www.multpl.com/30-year-real...
It should look like a steal in a world of rising tariff risks, potential Fed interference, and future inflation.
Too good to be true?
Markets might be sniffing out something worse: default risk.
www.multpl.com/30-year-real...
Front page of WSJ in 2014 and front page of NYT today.
April 30, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Front page of WSJ in 2014 and front page of NYT today.
Important new paper reporting experimental evidence that EV owners respond very strongly to incentives to shift electricity demand. I think we all suspected this was the case, but it's good to have clear documentation.
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
April 30, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Important new paper reporting experimental evidence that EV owners respond very strongly to incentives to shift electricity demand. I think we all suspected this was the case, but it's good to have clear documentation.
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
I'm looking at this poll trend in the NYT. They use a backward-looking moving average to fit the lines. But this can delay sharp turns of opinion (which are rare).
But zoom in: the recent dots do indicate a recent sharp turn.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/u...
But zoom in: the recent dots do indicate a recent sharp turn.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/u...
April 24, 2025 at 4:32 PM
I'm looking at this poll trend in the NYT. They use a backward-looking moving average to fit the lines. But this can delay sharp turns of opinion (which are rare).
But zoom in: the recent dots do indicate a recent sharp turn.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/u...
But zoom in: the recent dots do indicate a recent sharp turn.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/u...
When I was in graduate school, nearly 30 years ago, a prominent faculty member I worked with (and greatly admire) said that climate change research was over.
In my inbox:
In my inbox:
April 24, 2025 at 1:19 PM
When I was in graduate school, nearly 30 years ago, a prominent faculty member I worked with (and greatly admire) said that climate change research was over.
In my inbox:
In my inbox:
I was confounded by those crazy tariff estimates for other countries. Turns out it's dumber than we could have imagined.
April 3, 2025 at 5:28 PM
I was confounded by those crazy tariff estimates for other countries. Turns out it's dumber than we could have imagined.
I am reading this sweeping review article in Nature Reviews Earth & Env, on how ESS is using big data and deep learning to better model global systems.
But I'm uncomfortable with their characterization of causality == Granger causality.
www.researchgate.net/profile/Youh...
But I'm uncomfortable with their characterization of causality == Granger causality.
www.researchgate.net/profile/Youh...
March 22, 2025 at 1:21 AM
I am reading this sweeping review article in Nature Reviews Earth & Env, on how ESS is using big data and deep learning to better model global systems.
But I'm uncomfortable with their characterization of causality == Granger causality.
www.researchgate.net/profile/Youh...
But I'm uncomfortable with their characterization of causality == Granger causality.
www.researchgate.net/profile/Youh...
The most important part of Krugman's post concerns media "sane washing" of Musk/Trump economic actions and Scott Bessent's indefensible "detox" claims.
Biden-era job growth was overwhelmingly private sector.
And most government hiring was local.
Media do better!
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Biden-era job growth was overwhelmingly private sector.
And most government hiring was local.
Media do better!
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
March 18, 2025 at 8:35 PM
The most important part of Krugman's post concerns media "sane washing" of Musk/Trump economic actions and Scott Bessent's indefensible "detox" claims.
Biden-era job growth was overwhelmingly private sector.
And most government hiring was local.
Media do better!
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Biden-era job growth was overwhelmingly private sector.
And most government hiring was local.
Media do better!
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
While I think Lazar gets some important things wrong in his handbook, we do have a big problem with the way we regulate utilities. I don't think it's unique to CA; it appears systemic to the standard regulatory design.
If we can't fix regulation we ought to municipalize.
If we can't fix regulation we ought to municipalize.
March 12, 2025 at 5:34 PM
While I think Lazar gets some important things wrong in his handbook, we do have a big problem with the way we regulate utilities. I don't think it's unique to CA; it appears systemic to the standard regulatory design.
If we can't fix regulation we ought to municipalize.
If we can't fix regulation we ought to municipalize.
We have revised our working paper on transmission expansion. The main differences are that we (1) better account for ramp rates and (2) reserves by artificially boosting demand by 25% in each region during the most difficult-to-serve week.
arxiv.org/pdf/2402.14189
arxiv.org/pdf/2402.14189
March 8, 2025 at 4:02 AM
We have revised our working paper on transmission expansion. The main differences are that we (1) better account for ramp rates and (2) reserves by artificially boosting demand by 25% in each region during the most difficult-to-serve week.
arxiv.org/pdf/2402.14189
arxiv.org/pdf/2402.14189
True.
But, sadly, many economists (half?) who agree with that point disagree with Krugman's subsequent point.
Krugman navigates the ambiguities well. He strikes the right balance.
But, sadly, many economists (half?) who agree with that point disagree with Krugman's subsequent point.
Krugman navigates the ambiguities well. He strikes the right balance.
December 24, 2024 at 12:27 AM
True.
But, sadly, many economists (half?) who agree with that point disagree with Krugman's subsequent point.
Krugman navigates the ambiguities well. He strikes the right balance.
But, sadly, many economists (half?) who agree with that point disagree with Krugman's subsequent point.
Krugman navigates the ambiguities well. He strikes the right balance.
Here's a preview of results, not including producer rents (still verifying these). For context, we scale values to $/MWh under baseline projected demand.
December 21, 2024 at 5:16 PM
Here's a preview of results, not including producer rents (still verifying these). For context, we scale values to $/MWh under baseline projected demand.
Cost of decarbonizing w/wo transmission expansion across regions. Map shows DiD: how much transmission saves by region.
February 23, 2024 at 5:02 AM
Cost of decarbonizing w/wo transmission expansion across regions. Map shows DiD: how much transmission saves by region.
Generation mixes, costs, and transmission across a range of scenarios.
February 23, 2024 at 5:01 AM
Generation mixes, costs, and transmission across a range of scenarios.
current vs ideal zero-emission system in 2050
February 23, 2024 at 5:00 AM
current vs ideal zero-emission system in 2050
New working paper:
"Optimal transmission expansion minimally reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. Electricity."
arxiv.org/abs/2402.14189
"Optimal transmission expansion minimally reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. Electricity."
arxiv.org/abs/2402.14189
February 23, 2024 at 4:56 AM
New working paper:
"Optimal transmission expansion minimally reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. Electricity."
arxiv.org/abs/2402.14189
"Optimal transmission expansion minimally reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. Electricity."
arxiv.org/abs/2402.14189