Michael Shurkin
@michaelshurkin.bsky.social
Ex-CIA, Ex-RAND, ex-historian. I post on things related to defense, national security, Africa (esp. the Sahel), and all things French military. Sometimes troll antisemites.
I wonder if anyone in the Admin made some well-timed trades.
Yeah this seems like market manipulation once again.
January 21, 2026 at 9:56 PM
I wonder if anyone in the Admin made some well-timed trades.
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
The is not a new deal - this is Trump surrendering. For now. They have always said that the US & NATO is free to do what it wants in Greenland from a military perspective. Trump said that wasn’t good enough because he needs the US to “own” it. So this is simply Trump backing down
January 21, 2026 at 7:54 PM
The is not a new deal - this is Trump surrendering. For now. They have always said that the US & NATO is free to do what it wants in Greenland from a military perspective. Trump said that wasn’t good enough because he needs the US to “own” it. So this is simply Trump backing down
Amazing.
Trump on Canada: They should be grateful also, but they’re not. I watched your prime minister yesterday. He wasn’t so grateful. But they should be grateful to us. Canada lives because of the U.S. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.
January 21, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Amazing.
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
Very interesting analysis of the Greenland shockwaves by @michaelshurkin.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
Post-Greenland Scenarios, the Three-Body Problem, and Life After the Pax Americana
The Greenland Crisis may be one of the most consequential events of post-war history, up there with Suez and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
open.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 7:39 AM
Very interesting analysis of the Greenland shockwaves by @michaelshurkin.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
I'm trying to get my head around the implications of the Greenland scenario.
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
Post-Greenland Scenarios, the Three-Body Problem, and Life After the Pax Americana
The Greenland Crisis may be one of the most consequential events of post-war history, up there with Suez and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:10 PM
I'm trying to get my head around the implications of the Greenland scenario.
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
@michaelshurkin.bsky.social spelling it out:
without allies America becomes a mere regional power, no longer able to project its power across the globe.
without allies America becomes a mere regional power, no longer able to project its power across the globe.
I made this video reluctantly because it seems so self-evident. Rather like having to tell people not to drink the rubbing alcohol. But here we are.
youtu.be/5KmuWGT__yc
youtu.be/5KmuWGT__yc
Why America Is Better Off With Allies
YouTube video by Pax Americana
youtu.be
January 19, 2026 at 1:21 PM
@michaelshurkin.bsky.social spelling it out:
without allies America becomes a mere regional power, no longer able to project its power across the globe.
without allies America becomes a mere regional power, no longer able to project its power across the globe.
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
Because it's not really about that at all.
Question in Copenhagen: why is Trump focussed on a Russian threat that doesn't exist (in Greenland) as opposed to one where it does (Ukraine)?
January 19, 2026 at 11:13 AM
Because it's not really about that at all.
I made this video reluctantly because it seems so self-evident. Rather like having to tell people not to drink the rubbing alcohol. But here we are.
youtu.be/5KmuWGT__yc
youtu.be/5KmuWGT__yc
Why America Is Better Off With Allies
YouTube video by Pax Americana
youtu.be
January 19, 2026 at 12:23 PM
I made this video reluctantly because it seems so self-evident. Rather like having to tell people not to drink the rubbing alcohol. But here we are.
youtu.be/5KmuWGT__yc
youtu.be/5KmuWGT__yc
I feel like I'm living that movie "Idiocracy." I've woken up and everyone in my country is dumber by maybe 20 IQ points. Myself included? Now that's a good question. Would I know what if it were true?
January 16, 2026 at 12:43 PM
I feel like I'm living that movie "Idiocracy." I've woken up and everyone in my country is dumber by maybe 20 IQ points. Myself included? Now that's a good question. Would I know what if it were true?
There's too much nonsense being said about Denmark. I hope this helps.
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
The Truth about Denmark Pulling its Weight
One of the insights I got from researching my YouTube video about the Danish military and military policy was Denmark’s understanding of how best to contribute to NATO’s collective defense.
open.substack.com
January 14, 2026 at 2:24 PM
There's too much nonsense being said about Denmark. I hope this helps.
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
This is insane.
Today at 34 & Park in Minneapolis, a woman tried to drive down the street where a protest had broken out in front of a home ICE was raiding, saying she had a doctor apt to get to. ICE agents busted out her windows, cut off her seatbelt, and pulled her out before arresting her.
January 13, 2026 at 9:25 PM
This is insane.
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
"Eyewitnesses say gov't forces have begun opening fire, apparently with automatic weapons and at times seemingly indiscriminately, on unarmed protesters...protesters had been coming in with pellet injuries but now with gunshot wounds & skull fractures."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/w...
‘Shoot to Kill’: Accounts of Brutal Crackdown Emerge From Iran
www.nytimes.com
January 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM
"Eyewitnesses say gov't forces have begun opening fire, apparently with automatic weapons and at times seemingly indiscriminately, on unarmed protesters...protesters had been coming in with pellet injuries but now with gunshot wounds & skull fractures."
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/w...
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
C'est un épisode que j'ai en stock depuis plus d'un mois et dont je vais confesser qu'il me brûlait un peu les doigts, parce que je pense qu'il aurait fait du bien au débat, et notamment aux remarques des Clausewitz de bistrot sur l'obsolescence du porte-avions qu'on lit depuis trois semaines.
January 13, 2026 at 3:29 PM
C'est un épisode que j'ai en stock depuis plus d'un mois et dont je vais confesser qu'il me brûlait un peu les doigts, parce que je pense qu'il aurait fait du bien au débat, et notamment aux remarques des Clausewitz de bistrot sur l'obsolescence du porte-avions qu'on lit depuis trois semaines.
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
Another thought-provoking piece from @michaelshurkin.bsky.social
“Why is Trump doing this?” My guesses:
- He wants to assert himself internationally as the strongman of the Western hemisphere
- He wants to make a point domestically: he can do whatever he wants
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
“Why is Trump doing this?” My guesses:
- He wants to assert himself internationally as the strongman of the Western hemisphere
- He wants to make a point domestically: he can do whatever he wants
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
The Nightmare Greenland Scenario
Lots of things worry me these days, but this is now my darkest fear: Greenland could be the prompt for the collapse of American democracy and possibly civil war.
open.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Another thought-provoking piece from @michaelshurkin.bsky.social
“Why is Trump doing this?” My guesses:
- He wants to assert himself internationally as the strongman of the Western hemisphere
- He wants to make a point domestically: he can do whatever he wants
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
“Why is Trump doing this?” My guesses:
- He wants to assert himself internationally as the strongman of the Western hemisphere
- He wants to make a point domestically: he can do whatever he wants
open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
All about the Danish military. With thoughts on Greenland and the Pax Americana.
youtu.be/bJK-p9Ynpmk
youtu.be/bJK-p9Ynpmk
All About the Danish Military
YouTube video by Pax Americana
youtu.be
January 12, 2026 at 11:50 PM
All about the Danish military. With thoughts on Greenland and the Pax Americana.
youtu.be/bJK-p9Ynpmk
youtu.be/bJK-p9Ynpmk
All about the Danish military. With thoughts on Greenland and the Pax Americana.
youtu.be/bJK-p9Ynpmk
youtu.be/bJK-p9Ynpmk
All About the Danish Military
YouTube video by Pax Americana
youtu.be
January 12, 2026 at 11:50 PM
All about the Danish military. With thoughts on Greenland and the Pax Americana.
youtu.be/bJK-p9Ynpmk
youtu.be/bJK-p9Ynpmk
I coined a new word today.
January 9, 2026 at 7:43 PM
I coined a new word today.
Danish soldier Sophia Bruun. Killed in action in Afghanistan as part of Task Force Helmand, 2010, at the age of 22.
January 9, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Danish soldier Sophia Bruun. Killed in action in Afghanistan as part of Task Force Helmand, 2010, at the age of 22.
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
Another round in the drones versus drone defence cycle: Russia has added MANPADS to its Shahed drones
www.flightglobal.com/military-uav...
www.flightglobal.com/military-uav...
Russia adds anti-aircraft missile capability to Shahed one-way attack drones
Russian forces appear to have modified Shahed-136 one-way attack drones to carry man-portable air defence missiles, marking a tactical evolution aimed at threatening Ukrainian fighter aircraft deploye...
www.flightglobal.com
January 9, 2026 at 10:23 AM
Another round in the drones versus drone defence cycle: Russia has added MANPADS to its Shahed drones
www.flightglobal.com/military-uav...
www.flightglobal.com/military-uav...
Reposted by Michael Shurkin
The vibe we all need right now
January 9, 2026 at 11:48 AM
The vibe we all need right now
Spare a thought for poor Jeremy Corbyn.
January 9, 2026 at 3:29 AM
Spare a thought for poor Jeremy Corbyn.
The fall of the Iranian regime combined with some sort of Israel-Syria deal would radically improve the chances of regional peace and do wonders for calming Israel-Palestine. Everyone would win except for Hiz, the Houthis, and Hamas. Fingers crossed.
January 9, 2026 at 2:31 AM
The fall of the Iranian regime combined with some sort of Israel-Syria deal would radically improve the chances of regional peace and do wonders for calming Israel-Palestine. Everyone would win except for Hiz, the Houthis, and Hamas. Fingers crossed.
PS. None of the events people were saying were going to happen did happen. It was all fake news
Watch Somaliland today. Might be some really big news.
January 9, 2026 at 1:49 AM
PS. None of the events people were saying were going to happen did happen. It was all fake news
Watching events in Iran...I can't help but wonder if maybe 7 October was a bad idea.
January 9, 2026 at 1:48 AM
Watching events in Iran...I can't help but wonder if maybe 7 October was a bad idea.