Maximilian Maier
@maxmaier.bsky.social
PhD candidate @EP_UCL | Decision-making, applied statistics, & meta-analysis | Open science | Previously @ResMaPsychology
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
Today's HotFresh recommended paper is:
Maier, M., Harris, A. J. L., Kellen, D., & Singmann, H. (2025). Decision making under extinction risk. Cognitive Psychology, 159. doi.org/10.1016/j.co...
Maier, M., Harris, A. J. L., Kellen, D., & Singmann, H. (2025). Decision making under extinction risk. Cognitive Psychology, 159. doi.org/10.1016/j.co...
Redirecting
doi.org
November 3, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Today's HotFresh recommended paper is:
Maier, M., Harris, A. J. L., Kellen, D., & Singmann, H. (2025). Decision making under extinction risk. Cognitive Psychology, 159. doi.org/10.1016/j.co...
Maier, M., Harris, A. J. L., Kellen, D., & Singmann, H. (2025). Decision making under extinction risk. Cognitive Psychology, 159. doi.org/10.1016/j.co...
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
I am recruiting (Canadian🇨🇦) graduate students at York University for Fall 2026 in Social and Personality Psychology! If you are interested in misinformation, political polarization, and/or computational social science, I'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out with any questions.
September 15, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I am recruiting (Canadian🇨🇦) graduate students at York University for Fall 2026 in Social and Personality Psychology! If you are interested in misinformation, political polarization, and/or computational social science, I'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out with any questions.
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
Exciting #rstats news for Bayesian model comparison: bridgesampling is finally ready to support cmdstanr, see screenshot. Help us by installing the development version of bridgesampling and letting us know if it works for your model(s): pak::pkg_install("quentingronau/bridgesampling#44")
![R code and output showing the new functionality:
``` r
## pak::pkg_install("quentingronau/bridgesampling#44")
## see: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/bridgesampling/vignettes/bridgesampling_example_stan.html
library(bridgesampling)
### generate data ###
set.seed(12345)
mu <- 0
tau2 <- 0.5
sigma2 <- 1
n <- 20
theta <- rnorm(n, mu, sqrt(tau2))
y <- rnorm(n, theta, sqrt(sigma2))
### set prior parameters ###
mu0 <- 0
tau20 <- 1
alpha <- 1
beta <- 1
stancodeH0 <- 'data {
int<lower=1> n; // number of observations
vector[n] y; // observations
real<lower=0> alpha;
real<lower=0> beta;
real<lower=0> sigma2;
}
parameters {
real<lower=0> tau2; // group-level variance
vector[n] theta; // participant effects
}
model {
target += inv_gamma_lpdf(tau2 | alpha, beta);
target += normal_lpdf(theta | 0, sqrt(tau2));
target += normal_lpdf(y | theta, sqrt(sigma2));
}
'
tf <- withr::local_tempfile(fileext = ".stan")
writeLines(stancodeH0, tf)
mod <- cmdstanr::cmdstan_model(tf, quiet = TRUE, force_recompile = TRUE)
fitH0 <- mod$sample(
data = list(y = y, n = n,
alpha = alpha,
beta = beta,
sigma2 = sigma2),
seed = 202,
chains = 4,
parallel_chains = 4,
iter_warmup = 1000,
iter_sampling = 50000,
refresh = 0
)
#> Running MCMC with 4 parallel chains...
#>
#> Chain 3 finished in 0.8 seconds.
#> Chain 2 finished in 0.8 seconds.
#> Chain 4 finished in 0.8 seconds.
#> Chain 1 finished in 1.1 seconds.
#>
#> All 4 chains finished successfully.
#> Mean chain execution time: 0.9 seconds.
#> Total execution time: 1.2 seconds.
H0.bridge <- bridge_sampler(fitH0, silent = TRUE)
print(H0.bridge)
#> Bridge sampling estimate of the log marginal likelihood: -37.73301
#> Estimate obtained in 8 iteration(s) via method "normal".
#### Expected output:
## Bridge sampling estimate of the log marginal likelihood: -37.53183
## Estimate obtained in 5 iteration(s) via method "normal".
```](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lgxrkw556dtxkplwrj5rzlli/bafkreicf6zdyyjmaxrdfyq2sekokprym3c2o5atca6i2cczcx5zec4q4hm@jpeg)
September 2, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Exciting #rstats news for Bayesian model comparison: bridgesampling is finally ready to support cmdstanr, see screenshot. Help us by installing the development version of bridgesampling and letting us know if it works for your model(s): pak::pkg_install("quentingronau/bridgesampling#44")
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
How do people choose between moral rules or cost-benefit moral reasoning when faced with dilemmas?
Research by @maxmaier.bsky.social et al suggests
metacognitive learning from *consequences*
shapes moral decision-making, which is surprisingly malleable:
buff.ly/6SREXa0
Research by @maxmaier.bsky.social et al suggests
metacognitive learning from *consequences*
shapes moral decision-making, which is surprisingly malleable:
buff.ly/6SREXa0
August 13, 2025 at 3:09 PM
How do people choose between moral rules or cost-benefit moral reasoning when faced with dilemmas?
Research by @maxmaier.bsky.social et al suggests
metacognitive learning from *consequences*
shapes moral decision-making, which is surprisingly malleable:
buff.ly/6SREXa0
Research by @maxmaier.bsky.social et al suggests
metacognitive learning from *consequences*
shapes moral decision-making, which is surprisingly malleable:
buff.ly/6SREXa0
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
Our new research paper is out in NHB, which we apparently coauthored with acclaimed actor Ryan Reynolds. Critics are calling it his best work since Deadpool.
In this article, Maier et al. show that metacognitive learning from consequences can shape moral decision-making. @maxmaier.bsky.social @vancityreynolds.bsky.social @vanessachg.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Learning from outcomes shapes reliance on moral rules versus cost–benefit reasoning - Nature Human Behaviour
Maier et al. show that metacognitive learning from consequences can shape moral decision-making.
www.nature.com
August 12, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Our new research paper is out in NHB, which we apparently coauthored with acclaimed actor Ryan Reynolds. Critics are calling it his best work since Deadpool.
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
For all those at #CogSci2025, @glenspiteri.bsky.social will be presenting this work at 14:15 PDT (22:15 BST for those online and UK based)!
“Communicating Global Income Rank Increases Charitable Donations”
Session: ‘Talks 8: Social Cognition’
@cogscisociety.bsky.social
“Communicating Global Income Rank Increases Charitable Donations”
Session: ‘Talks 8: Social Cognition’
@cogscisociety.bsky.social
New preprint w/ @glenspiteri.bsky.social , @maxmaier.bsky.social & Falk Lieder: Telling people their global income rank (RBN) increased charitable donations. Also explored RBN’s effect on perceived global income distribution + whether asking how much others should donate increased giving (IDT)
🧵…
🧵…
July 31, 2025 at 8:56 PM
For all those at #CogSci2025, @glenspiteri.bsky.social will be presenting this work at 14:15 PDT (22:15 BST for those online and UK based)!
“Communicating Global Income Rank Increases Charitable Donations”
Session: ‘Talks 8: Social Cognition’
@cogscisociety.bsky.social
“Communicating Global Income Rank Increases Charitable Donations”
Session: ‘Talks 8: Social Cognition’
@cogscisociety.bsky.social
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
@fbartos.bsky.social @maxmaier.bsky.social & EJ Wagenmakers have extended RoBMA with 3-level publication bias-adjusted model-averaged meta-regression models in R along with the usual code-free and intuitive @jaspstats.bsky.social implementation. Nerdy details are osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
July 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
@fbartos.bsky.social @maxmaier.bsky.social & EJ Wagenmakers have extended RoBMA with 3-level publication bias-adjusted model-averaged meta-regression models in R along with the usual code-free and intuitive @jaspstats.bsky.social implementation. Nerdy details are osf.io/preprints/ps...
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
In Deutschland wird leidenschaftlich über mögliche Änderungen an den Strukturen der wissenschaftlichen Zusammenarbeit diskutiert. Das Ziel ist, die vielfältigen Verführungen zum Machtmissbrauch, die das gegenwärtige deutsche System beinhaltet, stärker zu beschränken.
July 25, 2025 at 1:47 PM
In Deutschland wird leidenschaftlich über mögliche Änderungen an den Strukturen der wissenschaftlichen Zusammenarbeit diskutiert. Das Ziel ist, die vielfältigen Verführungen zum Machtmissbrauch, die das gegenwärtige deutsche System beinhaltet, stärker zu beschränken.
Happy to share that I passed my viva yesterday without corrections and will start as Assistant Professor at Warwick Business School on 1st of August - I look forward to the next chapter at Warwick and to building new collaborations with the exceptional colleagues there!
July 22, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Happy to share that I passed my viva yesterday without corrections and will start as Assistant Professor at Warwick Business School on 1st of August - I look forward to the next chapter at Warwick and to building new collaborations with the exceptional colleagues there!
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
Out in Cognitive Psychology, led by @maxmaier.bsky.social: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
A new lottery task with choices that matter across trials; the risky option has a chance of going extinct, which ends the study. We derive optimal policies and develop a strategy-classification model.
A new lottery task with choices that matter across trials; the risky option has a chance of going extinct, which ends the study. We derive optimal policies and develop a strategy-classification model.
June 24, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Out in Cognitive Psychology, led by @maxmaier.bsky.social: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
A new lottery task with choices that matter across trials; the risky option has a chance of going extinct, which ends the study. We derive optimal policies and develop a strategy-classification model.
A new lottery task with choices that matter across trials; the risky option has a chance of going extinct, which ends the study. We derive optimal policies and develop a strategy-classification model.
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
Excited to share that this paper is now published in PNAS! (With @maxmaier.bsky.social & Falk Lieder) www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
We updated our preprint on moral decision-making in LLMs (osf.io/preprints/ps...) with a new study investigating sources of the yes-no framing bias and amplified omission bias. Results show that they likely arise from fine-tuning for chatbot applications. (w/ @maxmaier.bsky.social and Falk Lieder)
June 20, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Excited to share that this paper is now published in PNAS! (With @maxmaier.bsky.social & Falk Lieder) www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
New preprint w/ @glenspiteri.bsky.social , @maxmaier.bsky.social & Falk Lieder: Telling people their global income rank (RBN) increased charitable donations. Also explored RBN’s effect on perceived global income distribution + whether asking how much others should donate increased giving (IDT)
🧵…
🧵…
May 7, 2025 at 9:43 AM
New preprint w/ @glenspiteri.bsky.social , @maxmaier.bsky.social & Falk Lieder: Telling people their global income rank (RBN) increased charitable donations. Also explored RBN’s effect on perceived global income distribution + whether asking how much others should donate increased giving (IDT)
🧵…
🧵…
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
New paper with Tong Liu and Arndt Broeder, just accepted in Cognition. We test novel qualitative predictions from sampling-based models of probability estimation in an event ranking task. Results provide evidence for the idea that mental sampling underlies probability judgements.
Evaluating the Role of Mental Sampling in Probability Judgments: Illogical Rankings Occur in a Predictable Manner: https://osf.io/bfwpe
March 19, 2025 at 9:38 PM
New paper with Tong Liu and Arndt Broeder, just accepted in Cognition. We test novel qualitative predictions from sampling-based models of probability estimation in an event ranking task. Results provide evidence for the idea that mental sampling underlies probability judgements.
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
First time on Blue Sky! Super happy this article is now out in an issue of Political Psychology! And honoured by the promo tweet with custom-made graphic! @leede-wit.bsky.social
New research by David Young and Lee de-Wit gives us a deeper look at polarization within political parties. Their findings suggest factional divides within a party can be as strong, and even stronger, than those between parties. Read more: https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12973
March 17, 2025 at 6:44 PM
First time on Blue Sky! Super happy this article is now out in an issue of Political Psychology! And honoured by the promo tweet with custom-made graphic! @leede-wit.bsky.social
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
Dave Lagnado is looking for a post doc to work on causal inference! The BR-UK team is doing some very cool stuff, so if you're currently looking for a job, check this out: www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
March 5, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Dave Lagnado is looking for a post doc to work on causal inference! The BR-UK team is doing some very cool stuff, so if you're currently looking for a job, check this out: www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
Friends, I have written you a book on forensic metascience.
It is free. You can have it. Happy St. Valentine's Day.
If you wish to give me a gift back, you can use it to cause trouble - the greatest gift of all.
open.substack.com/pub/jamescla...
It is free. You can have it. Happy St. Valentine's Day.
If you wish to give me a gift back, you can use it to cause trouble - the greatest gift of all.
open.substack.com/pub/jamescla...
I Have Written You A Book On Forensic Metascience
Use it to cause trouble
open.substack.com
February 14, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Friends, I have written you a book on forensic metascience.
It is free. You can have it. Happy St. Valentine's Day.
If you wish to give me a gift back, you can use it to cause trouble - the greatest gift of all.
open.substack.com/pub/jamescla...
It is free. You can have it. Happy St. Valentine's Day.
If you wish to give me a gift back, you can use it to cause trouble - the greatest gift of all.
open.substack.com/pub/jamescla...
New preprint "Decision Making Under Extinction Risk" with Adam Harris, David Kellen, and @singmann.bsky.social.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
January 24, 2025 at 4:42 PM
New preprint "Decision Making Under Extinction Risk" with Adam Harris, David Kellen, and @singmann.bsky.social.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
We updated our preprint on moral decision-making in LLMs (osf.io/preprints/ps...) with a new study investigating sources of the yes-no framing bias and amplified omission bias. Results show that they likely arise from fine-tuning for chatbot applications. (w/ @maxmaier.bsky.social and Falk Lieder)
December 11, 2024 at 4:15 PM
We updated our preprint on moral decision-making in LLMs (osf.io/preprints/ps...) with a new study investigating sources of the yes-no framing bias and amplified omission bias. Results show that they likely arise from fine-tuning for chatbot applications. (w/ @maxmaier.bsky.social and Falk Lieder)
Reposted by Maximilian Maier
(1/5) Very excited to announce the publication of Bayesian Models of Cognition: Reverse Engineering the Mind. More than a decade in the making, it's a big (600+ pages) beautiful book covering both the basics and recent work: mitpress.mit.edu/978026204941...
November 19, 2024 at 9:33 PM
(1/5) Very excited to announce the publication of Bayesian Models of Cognition: Reverse Engineering the Mind. More than a decade in the making, it's a big (600+ pages) beautiful book covering both the basics and recent work: mitpress.mit.edu/978026204941...
New paper "Model-Averaged Bayesian t tests" in Psychonomic Bulletin and Review with Frantisek Bartos, @dsquintana.bsky.social, Fabian Dablander, Don van den Bergh, @maartenmarsman.bsky.social, Alexander Ly, & @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social
Paper: doi.org/10.3758/s134...
Tutorial video & summary below👇
Paper: doi.org/10.3758/s134...
Tutorial video & summary below👇
Model Averaged Bayesian T-Test
YouTube video by JASP Statistics
www.youtube.com
November 11, 2024 at 2:50 PM
New paper "Model-Averaged Bayesian t tests" in Psychonomic Bulletin and Review with Frantisek Bartos, @dsquintana.bsky.social, Fabian Dablander, Don van den Bergh, @maartenmarsman.bsky.social, Alexander Ly, & @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social
Paper: doi.org/10.3758/s134...
Tutorial video & summary below👇
Paper: doi.org/10.3758/s134...
Tutorial video & summary below👇