MarketScalpel
@marketscalpel.bsky.social
Sector/Industry Rotation | Macro | Corporate Finance | Strategy
US Budget deficit/GDP-Last 3 recessions produced following peak to trough deficit swings
6.6% .com
8.8% GFC
15.7% C19
10.2% Avg
If the US econ now rolls over avg swing+last peak=>-14.3% GDP worst level. But trend increasing!
Last 2 dips global crises; US praying for repeat else exceptionalism done
6.6% .com
8.8% GFC
15.7% C19
10.2% Avg
If the US econ now rolls over avg swing+last peak=>-14.3% GDP worst level. But trend increasing!
Last 2 dips global crises; US praying for repeat else exceptionalism done
September 14, 2025 at 9:08 AM
US Budget deficit/GDP-Last 3 recessions produced following peak to trough deficit swings
6.6% .com
8.8% GFC
15.7% C19
10.2% Avg
If the US econ now rolls over avg swing+last peak=>-14.3% GDP worst level. But trend increasing!
Last 2 dips global crises; US praying for repeat else exceptionalism done
6.6% .com
8.8% GFC
15.7% C19
10.2% Avg
If the US econ now rolls over avg swing+last peak=>-14.3% GDP worst level. But trend increasing!
Last 2 dips global crises; US praying for repeat else exceptionalism done
Reposted by MarketScalpel
My lab's been attacked by an anti-wind group and their lawyers. They threatened the science funding of my whole university, to shut me and my undergraduate research assistants up.
NYT just covered it. 1/n
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/c...
NYT just covered it. 1/n
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/c...
Law Firm Pressures Brown University to Erase Research on Anti-Wind Groups
www.nytimes.com
August 25, 2025 at 11:32 AM
My lab's been attacked by an anti-wind group and their lawyers. They threatened the science funding of my whole university, to shut me and my undergraduate research assistants up.
NYT just covered it. 1/n
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/c...
NYT just covered it. 1/n
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/c...
Think I'm gonna take my mkt stuff back to Xitter. Some great posters here and am not flouncing off, but there seems to be v little interest in mkt analysis, exemplified by my getting the reaction of equities, bonds, and currencies to the Jackson Hole speech right and not getting a single reaction
August 24, 2025 at 6:15 AM
Think I'm gonna take my mkt stuff back to Xitter. Some great posters here and am not flouncing off, but there seems to be v little interest in mkt analysis, exemplified by my getting the reaction of equities, bonds, and currencies to the Jackson Hole speech right and not getting a single reaction
yep x3! Alas my read says 2 of the 3 moves should start to be reversed by the end of next wk :-o
Very light volume Tue 2md worst full trading day of the summer, with a 4/5wk cycle in Momo likely to bottom 2nd half og wk +/- a few days, but am thinking no later than JPOW at Jacksom Hole. Also suspect the dollar starts another slide similar sort of time, suggesting Ponzis catch a bid
August 22, 2025 at 2:16 PM
yep x3! Alas my read says 2 of the 3 moves should start to be reversed by the end of next wk :-o
just had a v interesting session with DeepSeek; actually v impressed and certainly helped me to crystalise some thoughts. Started by feeding it the below passage i wrote this morning, then went on to ask about Kondratieff and his fall from grace both in Russia and in wider Economic theory. Reply fyi
August 21, 2025 at 11:46 AM
just had a v interesting session with DeepSeek; actually v impressed and certainly helped me to crystalise some thoughts. Started by feeding it the below passage i wrote this morning, then went on to ask about Kondratieff and his fall from grace both in Russia and in wider Economic theory. Reply fyi
yep, looks like the the 4/5 wk momo cycle bottomed intraday Wed with the mkt painting a hammer on the candle chart, but the last cycle featured a lot of overlapping not the thrust/consolidation typical off the Apr lows, and imv longer cycles are rn in the process of topping and the bull mkt with it!
August 21, 2025 at 5:44 AM
yep, looks like the the 4/5 wk momo cycle bottomed intraday Wed with the mkt painting a hammer on the candle chart, but the last cycle featured a lot of overlapping not the thrust/consolidation typical off the Apr lows, and imv longer cycles are rn in the process of topping and the bull mkt with it!
Very light volume Tue 2md worst full trading day of the summer, with a 4/5wk cycle in Momo likely to bottom 2nd half og wk +/- a few days, but am thinking no later than JPOW at Jacksom Hole. Also suspect the dollar starts another slide similar sort of time, suggesting Ponzis catch a bid
August 20, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Very light volume Tue 2md worst full trading day of the summer, with a 4/5wk cycle in Momo likely to bottom 2nd half og wk +/- a few days, but am thinking no later than JPOW at Jacksom Hole. Also suspect the dollar starts another slide similar sort of time, suggesting Ponzis catch a bid
S&P 1500 O&G Drillers / Energy - yep, further serious weakness just past Q1 windows dressing but then some stabilisation with a flaggy range developing for +2m looking like it may be going up, and a possible catalyst in $CL likely hitting a 3/4wk cycle low Tue +/- 2TDs.
August 18, 2025 at 6:30 AM
S&P 1500 O&G Drillers / Energy - yep, further serious weakness just past Q1 windows dressing but then some stabilisation with a flaggy range developing for +2m looking like it may be going up, and a possible catalyst in $CL likely hitting a 3/4wk cycle low Tue +/- 2TDs.
Asset Mgmt - nope, rose pheonix/zombie like from the ashes of the Apr lows to retest the Xmas px ATH, but progress made in a textbook ABC, now hitting key resistance/SRS IT downtrend. Could well be a terminal pattern meaning more sideways chop and time to burn, but imv the px move substantially done
August 18, 2025 at 6:20 AM
Asset Mgmt - nope, rose pheonix/zombie like from the ashes of the Apr lows to retest the Xmas px ATH, but progress made in a textbook ABC, now hitting key resistance/SRS IT downtrend. Could well be a terminal pattern meaning more sideways chop and time to burn, but imv the px move substantially done
Diversified Inds - More LT momo mkt leader cracks in an honorary Inds Mag 7 member containing a lot of Electrical type Data Centre related stuff, suffering a so far minor SRS trendline break as px reversed from a mid Jul ATH following what looks a good candidate for a 5 leg impulse off the Apr lows:
August 18, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Diversified Inds - More LT momo mkt leader cracks in an honorary Inds Mag 7 member containing a lot of Electrical type Data Centre related stuff, suffering a so far minor SRS trendline break as px reversed from a mid Jul ATH following what looks a good candidate for a 5 leg impulse off the Apr lows:
Software - Quick look at recent weakness in another key momo leader having suffered a sharp reaction following a technical failure at the old Q1 '24 SRS ATH marginally eclipsed at the start of the month signalling the start of the whipsaw, with rel volume picking up sharply on the decline:
August 18, 2025 at 6:03 AM
Software - Quick look at recent weakness in another key momo leader having suffered a sharp reaction following a technical failure at the old Q1 '24 SRS ATH marginally eclipsed at the start of the month signalling the start of the whipsaw, with rel volume picking up sharply on the decline:
S&P 1500 EMS - yep, +25% move off the mid Jun range and a recently hot momo leader, but now hitting turbulence with SRS in an IT downtrend and px potentially having suffered at key technical failure at the late Jul ATH and rel volume picking up on the recent decline. Cld steady but more momo cracks:
August 18, 2025 at 5:57 AM
S&P 1500 EMS - yep, +25% move off the mid Jun range and a recently hot momo leader, but now hitting turbulence with SRS in an IT downtrend and px potentially having suffered at key technical failure at the late Jul ATH and rel volume picking up on the recent decline. Cld steady but more momo cracks:
Reposted by MarketScalpel
🧵 THREAD: What the leaked Alaska summit documents really reveal (excellent scoop by @NPR) 1/
NPR just broke some big news: US government documents were accidentally left in a hotel printer in Anchorage, revealing the actual plan for the Trump-Putin summit. They show exactly what Trump intended.
NPR just broke some big news: US government documents were accidentally left in a hotel printer in Anchorage, revealing the actual plan for the Trump-Putin summit. They show exactly what Trump intended.
Documents with sensitive details about the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin were left behind on a public hotel printer.
Government papers found in an Alaskan hotel reveal new details of Trump-Putin summit
Documents with sensitive details about the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin were left behind on a public hotel printer.
n.pr
August 16, 2025 at 5:43 PM
🧵 THREAD: What the leaked Alaska summit documents really reveal (excellent scoop by @NPR) 1/
NPR just broke some big news: US government documents were accidentally left in a hotel printer in Anchorage, revealing the actual plan for the Trump-Putin summit. They show exactly what Trump intended.
NPR just broke some big news: US government documents were accidentally left in a hotel printer in Anchorage, revealing the actual plan for the Trump-Putin summit. They show exactly what Trump intended.
$DX Dollar Idx - yep, C leg likely narrowly failed to reach the 1:1 distance of the A leg with a small chance the C leg is more complex/not complete, but regardless current move is again showing signs of mounting weakness with imv good odds the Jul low is taken out on this leg
August 17, 2025 at 5:57 AM
$DX Dollar Idx - yep, C leg likely narrowly failed to reach the 1:1 distance of the A leg with a small chance the C leg is more complex/not complete, but regardless current move is again showing signs of mounting weakness with imv good odds the Jul low is taken out on this leg
S&P 1500 Semis Equip - yep, long standing downside leader did indeed take another lurch dn Q1, and now again whacked Fri led by $AMAT citing predictable Trumponomics headwinds on biggest rel volume in my history, with the rally stalled at the Fib 61.8% retrace and SRS now in a ST/IT downtrend:
August 17, 2025 at 5:42 AM
S&P 1500 Semis Equip - yep, long standing downside leader did indeed take another lurch dn Q1, and now again whacked Fri led by $AMAT citing predictable Trumponomics headwinds on biggest rel volume in my history, with the rally stalled at the Fib 61.8% retrace and SRS now in a ST/IT downtrend:
Extremely muted volume expiry Fri, with defensives dominating the daily leaderboard and the rebounding following repeated Q4 thru H1 beatings Housing Complex still leading the pack at ~wkly timeframes. However, Momo now worst factor on the wk hurt by S/W and Semis Fri; that's new ;-o
August 17, 2025 at 5:34 AM
Extremely muted volume expiry Fri, with defensives dominating the daily leaderboard and the rebounding following repeated Q4 thru H1 beatings Housing Complex still leading the pack at ~wkly timeframes. However, Momo now worst factor on the wk hurt by S/W and Semis Fri; that's new ;-o
US Total mkt 52wk highs made a move to a 9yr record Wed, but NYSE quasi-debt instruments (eg prefs etc) likely a key driver, with the more pure play - and speculative ground zero - Nasdaq measure still below the Nov highs, and breadth poor in both. Options expiry Fri and midwk reversal a possibility
August 14, 2025 at 5:55 AM
US Total mkt 52wk highs made a move to a 9yr record Wed, but NYSE quasi-debt instruments (eg prefs etc) likely a key driver, with the more pure play - and speculative ground zero - Nasdaq measure still below the Nov highs, and breadth poor in both. Options expiry Fri and midwk reversal a possibility
move to new momo idx highs on dual breadth/52wk highs non-confirmations. Will see if that condition can be relieved with cum breadth/AD Line most problematic rn:
August 13, 2025 at 6:00 AM
move to new momo idx highs on dual breadth/52wk highs non-confirmations. Will see if that condition can be relieved with cum breadth/AD Line most problematic rn:
Full house of Housing complex subsectors top 8 in the subsector leaderboard, no doubt riding high on enthusiasm for the prospects of brisk inflation, nowhere better epitomised than Airlines SRS+7.7% with all constituents green/avg+7.6%, on particularly high airfare CPI component! Gotta luv it :-o
August 13, 2025 at 5:56 AM
Full house of Housing complex subsectors top 8 in the subsector leaderboard, no doubt riding high on enthusiasm for the prospects of brisk inflation, nowhere better epitomised than Airlines SRS+7.7% with all constituents green/avg+7.6%, on particularly high airfare CPI component! Gotta luv it :-o
Reposted by MarketScalpel
The extent to which the American economy is being transformed into a machine for scams and outright bribery should be spoken about more directly.
www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/scams-and-...
www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/scams-and-...
Scams And Bribery Are Becoming the Foundation of Our Economy
It's bad and you should be alarmed.
www.hamiltonnolan.com
August 12, 2025 at 3:53 PM
The extent to which the American economy is being transformed into a machine for scams and outright bribery should be spoken about more directly.
www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/scams-and-...
www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/scams-and-...
Bottom half of the subsector ranking (1m sort) - significant expansion of downside leadership, with 62 groups hitting >52wk SRS lows Mon albeit with some overlap. Looking like the process of capitulation at the altar of narrowing momentum is well advanced!
August 12, 2025 at 6:17 AM
Bottom half of the subsector ranking (1m sort) - significant expansion of downside leadership, with 62 groups hitting >52wk SRS lows Mon albeit with some overlap. Looking like the process of capitulation at the altar of narrowing momentum is well advanced!
$ZN / CPI - Ponzis appear in a flaggy controlled descent off the early Aug high, suggesting the advance not yet complete. That could now happen several ways but the upshot is today's #cpi likely to trigger a push to retest those highs that is should fail within hours or days depending on the path
August 12, 2025 at 5:59 AM
$ZN / CPI - Ponzis appear in a flaggy controlled descent off the early Aug high, suggesting the advance not yet complete. That could now happen several ways but the upshot is today's #cpi likely to trigger a push to retest those highs that is should fail within hours or days depending on the path
FX - Some chance EUR made an important longer term cycle low early last wk but potentially vulnerable to a sharp pullback, with JPY now seemingly nr a 5wk cycle high
EURGBP/USD - yep at least initially a flagpole off that silver 1wk cycle low. EUR entering window for a 3wk cycle low and Q is whether longer cycles are rolling over with GBP and JPY in my book both looking under pressure into final wks of Jul; if not there is a an ultra bullish route ~1/3 odds
August 11, 2025 at 5:40 AM
FX - Some chance EUR made an important longer term cycle low early last wk but potentially vulnerable to a sharp pullback, with JPY now seemingly nr a 5wk cycle high
Another fairly bad wk for non-Cons cyclicals, led by Paper marginally breaking the prior GFC SRS ATL, but generally eclipsed by Energy back to mnthly worst sector, with $CL in a 4/5wk cycle downphase not due to bottom until ~early next wk
August 11, 2025 at 5:23 AM
Another fairly bad wk for non-Cons cyclicals, led by Paper marginally breaking the prior GFC SRS ATL, but generally eclipsed by Energy back to mnthly worst sector, with $CL in a 4/5wk cycle downphase not due to bottom until ~early next wk