MarketScalpel
@marketscalpel.bsky.social
Sector/Industry Rotation | Macro | Corporate Finance | Strategy
Charitable interpretation of Witkoff/Trump's motives
November 26, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Charitable interpretation of Witkoff/Trump's motives
A woman tho, severely handicapping her wider American electoral prospects!
November 18, 2025 at 6:33 PM
A woman tho, severely handicapping her wider American electoral prospects!
wiping out $5bn that was all paper funny money he never had in the first place, or that ever actually existed in any substantive form. Stupid headline
November 18, 2025 at 6:31 PM
wiping out $5bn that was all paper funny money he never had in the first place, or that ever actually existed in any substantive form. Stupid headline
=Illegal under FCC rules
November 18, 2025 at 6:29 PM
=Illegal under FCC rules
...and financials 👀👀
November 17, 2025 at 6:03 PM
...and financials 👀👀
Looking more at the short side currently tbh!! But sustained >40% ROCE eg in Industrials seems a lot. Sounds like highly concentrated competitive structures, and interested in how M&A dynamics may have played a role in getting to that position
November 17, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Looking more at the short side currently tbh!! But sustained >40% ROCE eg in Industrials seems a lot. Sounds like highly concentrated competitive structures, and interested in how M&A dynamics may have played a role in getting to that position
Thanks, very interesting! Any chance of a quick list of the companies with a 5yr ROCE >40%
November 17, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Thanks, very interesting! Any chance of a quick list of the companies with a 5yr ROCE >40%
Have you calculated those sector returns bottom up, and if so have you tried excluding $TSLA from Consumer discretionary? (and $AMZN if it's in there too??)
November 17, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Have you calculated those sector returns bottom up, and if so have you tried excluding $TSLA from Consumer discretionary? (and $AMZN if it's in there too??)
Yep, China making great strides but important to remember Western makers like VW, Tesla, BMW, Stellantis, Renault , Volvo(/Polestar), etc are all serving export markets from Chinese manufacturing. A lot of hysteria currently about the imminent Euro auto industry demise in what are cyclical markets!
November 10, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Yep, China making great strides but important to remember Western makers like VW, Tesla, BMW, Stellantis, Renault , Volvo(/Polestar), etc are all serving export markets from Chinese manufacturing. A lot of hysteria currently about the imminent Euro auto industry demise in what are cyclical markets!
2/...the damage bad or corrupt leaders can do? Trump objectively shows the disastrous effects of the framers' choice of route 1, and it sounds like even natural supporters like Justice Roberts may have recently been getting queasy about this unitary executive doctrine. That cld all be an act tho!
November 2, 2025 at 10:21 AM
2/...the damage bad or corrupt leaders can do? Trump objectively shows the disastrous effects of the framers' choice of route 1, and it sounds like even natural supporters like Justice Roberts may have recently been getting queasy about this unitary executive doctrine. That cld all be an act tho!
True as a general matter, but as I understand it the constitution does give the president vast powers to run foreign policy, in some areas enhanced by Congressional delegation. It's a problem of institutional design; do you give the executive vast power in hope great men do great things or limit 1/
November 2, 2025 at 10:21 AM
True as a general matter, but as I understand it the constitution does give the president vast powers to run foreign policy, in some areas enhanced by Congressional delegation. It's a problem of institutional design; do you give the executive vast power in hope great men do great things or limit 1/
2/...much more appropriate to loudly and repeatedly ask what the hell is going on with the US constitutional framework to allow the president this degree of unchecked power? It is completely mad!
November 2, 2025 at 9:48 AM
2/...much more appropriate to loudly and repeatedly ask what the hell is going on with the US constitutional framework to allow the president this degree of unchecked power? It is completely mad!
Exactly as say Sy Hersh documented with special forces sabotage and assassination operations against Iran in the post Iraq War era. Established practice, and v much doubt this supreme court would have any problems with it. Rather than targeting Trump, even tho he is likely bending rules, seems...1/
November 2, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Exactly as say Sy Hersh documented with special forces sabotage and assassination operations against Iran in the post Iraq War era. Established practice, and v much doubt this supreme court would have any problems with it. Rather than targeting Trump, even tho he is likely bending rules, seems...1/
isn't this all fully consistent with the practice and operations authorised by presidential national security findings? Seems to me what is different is only that a) Trump is boasting about it rather than maintaining secrecy and b) GOP controlled Congress gives a oversight waiver
November 1, 2025 at 5:35 PM
isn't this all fully consistent with the practice and operations authorised by presidential national security findings? Seems to me what is different is only that a) Trump is boasting about it rather than maintaining secrecy and b) GOP controlled Congress gives a oversight waiver
Or growing equities bubble fears are driving sovereign bond flight to safety...?
October 31, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Or growing equities bubble fears are driving sovereign bond flight to safety...?
Further if there is a US fiscal crisis it is in their direct and immediate interest that they are not piggy in the middle and instead have some whataboutism propaganda wiggle room. UK and JP clearly the softest targets, with 10yr yield spread over USTs not going in a helpful direction thru Trump II!
October 24, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Further if there is a US fiscal crisis it is in their direct and immediate interest that they are not piggy in the middle and instead have some whataboutism propaganda wiggle room. UK and JP clearly the softest targets, with 10yr yield spread over USTs not going in a helpful direction thru Trump II!
Fed holds a leveraged investment portfolio. It is correct to add net profits/interest income less expenses from the total. Trust funds provide operating expenditure financed by interest income. You could add back the financing but then you would have to deduct it from the budget; no net impact
October 23, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Fed holds a leveraged investment portfolio. It is correct to add net profits/interest income less expenses from the total. Trust funds provide operating expenditure financed by interest income. You could add back the financing but then you would have to deduct it from the budget; no net impact
Gangs of New York seems topical. Plus has my old mate Sean Gilder in it!
October 16, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Gangs of New York seems topical. Plus has my old mate Sean Gilder in it!
Tell yo mama. This is accurately described as counterstrike against consecutive US administrations' multiple first strike efforts to destroy China's tech industry
China now quite rightly senses weakness. Amateurish, crony infested admin chiefly pursuing personal enrichment and pointless grudges 🤮🤮🤮
China now quite rightly senses weakness. Amateurish, crony infested admin chiefly pursuing personal enrichment and pointless grudges 🤮🤮🤮
October 10, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Tell yo mama. This is accurately described as counterstrike against consecutive US administrations' multiple first strike efforts to destroy China's tech industry
China now quite rightly senses weakness. Amateurish, crony infested admin chiefly pursuing personal enrichment and pointless grudges 🤮🤮🤮
China now quite rightly senses weakness. Amateurish, crony infested admin chiefly pursuing personal enrichment and pointless grudges 🤮🤮🤮
Part of the brand, I'd say
October 10, 2025 at 5:20 AM
Part of the brand, I'd say
....And how recent Dem administration staffers start looking suspiciously like America First patriots on departure
September 30, 2025 at 9:03 AM
....And how recent Dem administration staffers start looking suspiciously like America First patriots on departure
no, I think it fundamentally misstates/misreads the legal position under ESF enabling statute, where the powers cited and mentioned in subclause b are clearly and specifically related to subclause a) limiting the scope to USD stabilisation.
September 30, 2025 at 8:53 AM
no, I think it fundamentally misstates/misreads the legal position under ESF enabling statute, where the powers cited and mentioned in subclause b are clearly and specifically related to subclause a) limiting the scope to USD stabilisation.
But it was the original competitor sponsored act of congress that wiped out the value of the US business. Trump then hijacked it and handed to his political cronies but gave the owners some value where there was previously going to be zero. All too sordid to attempt to describe fully in all facets
September 26, 2025 at 11:46 AM
But it was the original competitor sponsored act of congress that wiped out the value of the US business. Trump then hijacked it and handed to his political cronies but gave the owners some value where there was previously going to be zero. All too sordid to attempt to describe fully in all facets
They let you do that when you're valued on a P/S multiple of 165x!
September 24, 2025 at 5:05 AM
They let you do that when you're valued on a P/S multiple of 165x!