MarketScalpel
@marketscalpel.bsky.social
Sector/Industry Rotation | Macro | Corporate Finance | Strategy
#$VIX (inverted) vs #$SPX - in an IT uptrend thru XMas with the cost of pinning the idx rising sharply as wild volatility careers dramatically around the mkt at subsector/industry group/stock levels. See an IT low mid next wk but gut nevertheless says better chance of coming unglued ~Mar multiexpirty
February 18, 2026 at 6:34 AM
#$VIX (inverted) vs #$SPX - in an IT uptrend thru XMas with the cost of pinning the idx rising sharply as wild volatility careers dramatically around the mkt at subsector/industry group/stock levels. See an IT low mid next wk but gut nevertheless says better chance of coming unglued ~Mar multiexpirty
3rd worst equities volume of '26 Mon creating conditions for a rally off support with a little help from heavy #$CVOLI Index call buying sending the #$PCCI p/c plunging to a low of 0.72x ~10.40 EST then rising constantly into a 0.93x close, with mean reverting Comp HW best subsector setting the tone
February 18, 2026 at 6:06 AM
3rd worst equities volume of '26 Mon creating conditions for a rally off support with a little help from heavy #$CVOLI Index call buying sending the #$PCCI p/c plunging to a low of 0.72x ~10.40 EST then rising constantly into a 0.93x close, with mean reverting Comp HW best subsector setting the tone
ST tactics - Treacherous enviro with mnthly expiry Fri and idx options action ramping up backend last wk. Working hypothesis is rally early on incl likely in commodities, but good chance of a midweek reversal with the wkly downtrend extending to a 2nd; unprecedented longevity in context of >3m range
February 15, 2026 at 2:59 PM
ST tactics - Treacherous enviro with mnthly expiry Fri and idx options action ramping up backend last wk. Working hypothesis is rally early on incl likely in commodities, but good chance of a midweek reversal with the wkly downtrend extending to a 2nd; unprecedented longevity in context of >3m range
UK FTSE 350 Banks - had been one of the bright spots if you view a parabolic blow off style move in a mature industry as that, but underperformed under pressure US Banks by 4.1%, last wk, after the rally seemingly arrested at resistance around the post GFC relative strength highs vs #$FTLC FTSE 350:
February 14, 2026 at 12:15 PM
UK FTSE 350 Banks - had been one of the bright spots if you view a parabolic blow off style move in a mature industry as that, but underperformed under pressure US Banks by 4.1%, last wk, after the rally seemingly arrested at resistance around the post GFC relative strength highs vs #$FTLC FTSE 350:
#$FTLC FTSE 350 (1m) subsector performance ranking/leadership - Some comments this morning about the US narrative tug of war between the bearishly inclined Telecoms/Utils/Staples/Value and much more bullish Inds/Mats leadership strands. No such luck for Blighty; leadership looking solidly bearish 😱
February 14, 2026 at 12:09 PM
#$FTLC FTSE 350 (1m) subsector performance ranking/leadership - Some comments this morning about the US narrative tug of war between the bearishly inclined Telecoms/Utils/Staples/Value and much more bullish Inds/Mats leadership strands. No such luck for Blighty; leadership looking solidly bearish 😱
Was just looking at the US Media Agencies Index which has fallen a cool 70% from the C19 high to yesterday's low. Your chart of media share is the primary reason for that, but I'd be very interested to see a breakdown of social/digital; bots don't buy stuff :-o
February 14, 2026 at 8:31 AM
Was just looking at the US Media Agencies Index which has fallen a cool 70% from the C19 high to yesterday's low. Your chart of media share is the primary reason for that, but I'd be very interested to see a breakdown of social/digital; bots don't buy stuff :-o
3/ Materials qtly top ranked sector 6th wk but some rotation internally with Chems now leading despite feedstock rally, Ind Metals stalling and Coal tanking, while Inds drops out of top 3 sectors generally inhabited thru early Dec, but honorary AI groups still ok but upside vol abating
February 14, 2026 at 7:52 AM
3/ Materials qtly top ranked sector 6th wk but some rotation internally with Chems now leading despite feedstock rally, Ind Metals stalling and Coal tanking, while Inds drops out of top 3 sectors generally inhabited thru early Dec, but honorary AI groups still ok but upside vol abating
2/ Meanwhile Utils lighting up the leaderboard with Water hitherto lagging but SRS+3.5% Fri in a group twinned with 1st mover Telecoms in enjoying early economic contraction cycle phase mkt favour and likely coming out of a major LT SRS cycle low, but imv likely rich vs RoW rel to Telecoms
February 14, 2026 at 7:43 AM
2/ Meanwhile Utils lighting up the leaderboard with Water hitherto lagging but SRS+3.5% Fri in a group twinned with 1st mover Telecoms in enjoying early economic contraction cycle phase mkt favour and likely coming out of a major LT SRS cycle low, but imv likely rich vs RoW rel to Telecoms
Rotation - Selling pressure abating in Cap Mkts SRS+1.3 Fri led by Exchgs & Data, but rotating back into Cons Fin that had led dn thru mid Q2 at a 1.5yr SRS low Fri breaking below dual px support at the mid Nov low and the 200d EMA and now in an IT downtrend
February 14, 2026 at 7:37 AM
Rotation - Selling pressure abating in Cap Mkts SRS+1.3 Fri led by Exchgs & Data, but rotating back into Cons Fin that had led dn thru mid Q2 at a 1.5yr SRS low Fri breaking below dual px support at the mid Nov low and the 200d EMA and now in an IT downtrend
2/ Could certainly be a false alarm but the strong GTFO energy esp in Cap Mkts areas still in evidence in Financials should probably not be construed as constructive for bulls!
February 13, 2026 at 7:17 AM
2/ Could certainly be a false alarm but the strong GTFO energy esp in Cap Mkts areas still in evidence in Financials should probably not be construed as constructive for bulls!
#$DWVAL US Value / Rotation - Nasty px candle on the daily Thu but SRS motoring at a 10m high Thu approaching a test of key resistance, with a slew of groups usually favoured late expansion/early recession increasingly prominent at the top of the UT subsector leaderboards 1/
February 13, 2026 at 7:17 AM
#$DWVAL US Value / Rotation - Nasty px candle on the daily Thu but SRS motoring at a 10m high Thu approaching a test of key resistance, with a slew of groups usually favoured late expansion/early recession increasingly prominent at the top of the UT subsector leaderboards 1/
UK 10yr Gilt - My active chart full of squiggles that detract from the basic position which is trying to claw its way back from the bottom of a fairly tight range. Suspect that succeeds ST, but fear this bounce is last chance saloon to sell before the bottom falls out:
February 12, 2026 at 7:50 AM
UK 10yr Gilt - My active chart full of squiggles that detract from the basic position which is trying to claw its way back from the bottom of a fairly tight range. Suspect that succeeds ST, but fear this bounce is last chance saloon to sell before the bottom falls out:
industry group rankings:
February 12, 2026 at 7:43 AM
industry group rankings:
Financials - yep, weakness deepened and spread to Banks led by Integrateds as the day progressed, with 3/4 subsectors internally placing in the bottom 10 overall (Ins spared but hit early in the slide) and the sector closing nr the px low after a flaggy breakdn. Cld see more sideways but all v weak
February 12, 2026 at 7:40 AM
Financials - yep, weakness deepened and spread to Banks led by Integrateds as the day progressed, with 3/4 subsectors internally placing in the bottom 10 overall (Ins spared but hit early in the slide) and the sector closing nr the px low after a flaggy breakdn. Cld see more sideways but all v weak
Travel & Les internal industry group rankings fyi
February 12, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Travel & Les internal industry group rankings fyi
Hotels / Travel+Les - subsector SRS rn testing Nov SRS ATL with mnths likely remaining on a LT cycle downphase, and recent leader Airlines hit for SRS-3.5% Wed, but Hotels gapping up past wk/px ATH Wed, with SRS now testing key resistance at Q1 '18 ATH. Lots of RoW exposure in there but overdone?
February 12, 2026 at 7:27 AM
Hotels / Travel+Les - subsector SRS rn testing Nov SRS ATL with mnths likely remaining on a LT cycle downphase, and recent leader Airlines hit for SRS-3.5% Wed, but Hotels gapping up past wk/px ATH Wed, with SRS now testing key resistance at Q1 '18 ATH. Lots of RoW exposure in there but overdone?
Real Estate / REITS - yep, RE Svcs worst subsector Wed SRS-11.4% led dn by a nr 20% haircut in #$ZG Zillow, but REITs extending the range breakout setting a nr 1yr px high with OBV still leading up and internal strength fairly broadbased rn ex Mortgage SRS- past wk/mnth
February 12, 2026 at 7:13 AM
Real Estate / REITS - yep, RE Svcs worst subsector Wed SRS-11.4% led dn by a nr 20% haircut in #$ZG Zillow, but REITs extending the range breakout setting a nr 1yr px high with OBV still leading up and internal strength fairly broadbased rn ex Mortgage SRS- past wk/mnth
#$AMZN / Gen Retail - Broadline dominated by #$AMZN in the DJ nomenclature only industry group wkly SRS- in Gen Retail driving subsector level weakness, in a group that led down from the C19 bull mkt top, and the stock not far off a test of LT px trendline support with SRS maybe in a LT downtrend rn:
February 11, 2026 at 7:28 AM
#$AMZN / Gen Retail - Broadline dominated by #$AMZN in the DJ nomenclature only industry group wkly SRS- in Gen Retail driving subsector level weakness, in a group that led down from the C19 bull mkt top, and the stock not far off a test of LT px trendline support with SRS maybe in a LT downtrend rn:
subsector leaderboard fyi:
February 11, 2026 at 7:19 AM
subsector leaderboard fyi:
Home Bubblers - top subsector Tue SRS+4.8% with px at a 4m high but still in a congestion area and SRS probing resistance but rel volume action consistently weak on the entire rally thru early Jan. Unsure of overall pattern but ABC from Nov perhaps completing ST
February 11, 2026 at 7:16 AM
Home Bubblers - top subsector Tue SRS+4.8% with px at a 4m high but still in a congestion area and SRS probing resistance but rel volume action consistently weak on the entire rally thru early Jan. Unsure of overall pattern but ABC from Nov perhaps completing ST
yep, prelim reversal of the possible mean reversion move with the rally arrested just below the px ATH strengthening contours of the possible H&S top pattern in evidence quite a few other places with Value leading up and speculative Momo/$DWMI microcaps dn again. Note #$DWSV small cap value correl 👀
February 11, 2026 at 7:09 AM
yep, prelim reversal of the possible mean reversion move with the rally arrested just below the px ATH strengthening contours of the possible H&S top pattern in evidence quite a few other places with Value leading up and speculative Momo/$DWMI microcaps dn again. Note #$DWSV small cap value correl 👀
S&P 1500 Cap Mkts - Asset Mgrs so far holding at the mid Nov SRS low but selling pressure rotating into Cap Mkts setting a 1.5yr SRS low Tue with an IT downtrend now in place and rel/abs volume going into orbit past 2wks:
February 11, 2026 at 7:00 AM
S&P 1500 Cap Mkts - Asset Mgrs so far holding at the mid Nov SRS low but selling pressure rotating into Cap Mkts setting a 1.5yr SRS low Tue with an IT downtrend now in place and rel/abs volume going into orbit past 2wks:
Was Trump's latest friendly fire hit on the Canadians this time over the Great Lakes bridge due to pressure from his moron supporters...err...I mean....Moroun??!!
February 10, 2026 at 8:13 AM
Was Trump's latest friendly fire hit on the Canadians this time over the Great Lakes bridge due to pressure from his moron supporters...err...I mean....Moroun??!!
Software - Among the few SRS+ rel volume leaders but no more so on than on the recent nosedive, as bulls attempt to rally the group at the old Q4 '21 top since broken/turned key support successfully tested a few times but never before with this kind of trajectory and selling pressure. Lay yer bets:
February 10, 2026 at 7:47 AM
Software - Among the few SRS+ rel volume leaders but no more so on than on the recent nosedive, as bulls attempt to rally the group at the old Q4 '21 top since broken/turned key support successfully tested a few times but never before with this kind of trajectory and selling pressure. Lay yer bets: