Margarita Moreno-Betancur
@margaritamb.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics. University of Melbourne & Murdoch Children’s Research Institute. Research in causal inference and missing data methods + child, lifecourse and social epidemiology
Pinned
The ideal trial: defining causal estimands that balance relevance and feasibility in target trial emulations and actual randomized trials
Causal inference is the goal of randomized trials and many observational studies. The first step in a formal causal inference framework is to define the causal estimand, and in both types of study thi...
arxiv.org
NEW PAPER! (in press in EPIDEMIOLOGY)
Have you wondered:
- How to specify a target trial: as an ideal trial or something else?
- What biases do target trial emulations and actual RCTs share?
- How does it all relate to potential outcomes?
Read here! 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Have you wondered:
- How to specify a target trial: as an ideal trial or something else?
- What biases do target trial emulations and actual RCTs share?
- How does it all relate to potential outcomes?
Read here! 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
Mark your diaries! The ViCBiostat Summer School returns from 13-20 Feb 2026, in Melbourne and online.
Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework.
Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au
#statistics
Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework.
Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au
#statistics
November 12, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Mark your diaries! The ViCBiostat Summer School returns from 13-20 Feb 2026, in Melbourne and online.
Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework.
Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au
#statistics
Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework.
Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au
#statistics
A few weeks ago I went to Canberra to receive the Moran Medal at the lovely Shine Dome of the Australian Academy of Science (@science.org.au). It was a huge honour, and wonderful to hear talks from all corners of science and to learn about the Academy's great work supporting science
- pics below!
- pics below!
October 1, 2025 at 2:30 AM
A few weeks ago I went to Canberra to receive the Moran Medal at the lovely Shine Dome of the Australian Academy of Science (@science.org.au). It was a huge honour, and wonderful to hear talks from all corners of science and to learn about the Academy's great work supporting science
- pics below!
- pics below!
NEW PAPER!!! "Causal Machine Learning Methods and Use of Cross‐Fitting in Settings With High‐Dimensional Confounding"
led by Susie Ellul, with Stijn Vansteelandt & John Carlin
Published in Stats in Med
Check it out 👇
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
led by Susie Ellul, with Stijn Vansteelandt & John Carlin
Published in Stats in Med
Check it out 👇
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Causal Machine Learning Methods and Use of Cross‐Fitting in Settings With High‐Dimensional Confounding
Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the p...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 25, 2025 at 2:35 AM
NEW PAPER!!! "Causal Machine Learning Methods and Use of Cross‐Fitting in Settings With High‐Dimensional Confounding"
led by Susie Ellul, with Stijn Vansteelandt & John Carlin
Published in Stats in Med
Check it out 👇
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
led by Susie Ellul, with Stijn Vansteelandt & John Carlin
Published in Stats in Med
Check it out 👇
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
NEW PAPER! (in press in EPIDEMIOLOGY)
Have you wondered:
- How to specify a target trial: as an ideal trial or something else?
- What biases do target trial emulations and actual RCTs share?
- How does it all relate to potential outcomes?
Read here! 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Have you wondered:
- How to specify a target trial: as an ideal trial or something else?
- What biases do target trial emulations and actual RCTs share?
- How does it all relate to potential outcomes?
Read here! 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026
#EpiSky #CausalSky
The ideal trial: defining causal estimands that balance relevance and feasibility in target trial emulations and actual randomized trials
Causal inference is the goal of randomized trials and many observational studies. The first step in a formal causal inference framework is to define the causal estimand, and in both types of study thi...
arxiv.org
September 9, 2025 at 11:23 PM
NEW PAPER! (in press in EPIDEMIOLOGY)
Have you wondered:
- How to specify a target trial: as an ideal trial or something else?
- What biases do target trial emulations and actual RCTs share?
- How does it all relate to potential outcomes?
Read here! 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Have you wondered:
- How to specify a target trial: as an ideal trial or something else?
- What biases do target trial emulations and actual RCTs share?
- How does it all relate to potential outcomes?
Read here! 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
🎯 TARGET Guideline published 🎉
TARGET is a reporting guideline for observational studies of interventions that use the target trial framework.
Over 3 years the @TARGETGuideline was rigorously developed and was co-published today in @jama.com & @bmj.com
doi.org/10.1001/jama.2025.13350
#episky
TARGET is a reporting guideline for observational studies of interventions that use the target trial framework.
Over 3 years the @TARGETGuideline was rigorously developed and was co-published today in @jama.com & @bmj.com
doi.org/10.1001/jama.2025.13350
#episky
September 3, 2025 at 9:06 PM
🎯 TARGET Guideline published 🎉
TARGET is a reporting guideline for observational studies of interventions that use the target trial framework.
Over 3 years the @TARGETGuideline was rigorously developed and was co-published today in @jama.com & @bmj.com
doi.org/10.1001/jama.2025.13350
#episky
TARGET is a reporting guideline for observational studies of interventions that use the target trial framework.
Over 3 years the @TARGETGuideline was rigorously developed and was co-published today in @jama.com & @bmj.com
doi.org/10.1001/jama.2025.13350
#episky
1/ NEW R PACKAGE! For estimating the impact of potential interventions on multiple mediators in countering exposure effects (led by @cttc101.bsky.social)
- Paper👉 tinyurl.com/ye26jsps
- Package👉 tinyurl.com/yuh4kens
Thread shows published examples of how the method can be used! #EpiSky #CausalSky
- Paper👉 tinyurl.com/ye26jsps
- Package👉 tinyurl.com/yuh4kens
Thread shows published examples of how the method can be used! #EpiSky #CausalSky
tinyurl.com
July 10, 2025 at 1:30 AM
1/ NEW R PACKAGE! For estimating the impact of potential interventions on multiple mediators in countering exposure effects (led by @cttc101.bsky.social)
- Paper👉 tinyurl.com/ye26jsps
- Package👉 tinyurl.com/yuh4kens
Thread shows published examples of how the method can be used! #EpiSky #CausalSky
- Paper👉 tinyurl.com/ye26jsps
- Package👉 tinyurl.com/yuh4kens
Thread shows published examples of how the method can be used! #EpiSky #CausalSky
NOW PUBLISHED! Featured article + 6 Commentaries + Rejoinder: “On the Uses and Abuses of Regression Models: A Call for Reform of Statistical Practice and Teaching” with my colleague John Carlin
tinyurl.com/2z2tmkhh
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social #EpiSky #CausalSky #StatsSky
tinyurl.com/2z2tmkhh
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social #EpiSky #CausalSky #StatsSky
Rejoinder to Commentaries on: On the Uses and Abuses of Regression Models: A Call for Reform of Statistical Practice and Teaching
Click on the article title to read more.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
July 2, 2025 at 1:56 AM
NOW PUBLISHED! Featured article + 6 Commentaries + Rejoinder: “On the Uses and Abuses of Regression Models: A Call for Reform of Statistical Practice and Teaching” with my colleague John Carlin
tinyurl.com/2z2tmkhh
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social #EpiSky #CausalSky #StatsSky
tinyurl.com/2z2tmkhh
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social #EpiSky #CausalSky #StatsSky
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
📢 New Commentary: We discuss how analytic choices impact interpretation of studies on socioeconomic health inequities. We review 1) descriptive analogues of causal estimands (à la Young et al) with competing events; 2) timescale choice; and 3) covariate adjustment.
👉 academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
👉 academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
Invited commentary: Descriptive social epidemiology: putting the question before the methods
Abstract. In studies describing socioeconomic inequities in health outcomes, the choice of estimand and the planned analytic approach are central to the in
academic.oup.com
May 1, 2025 at 11:09 PM
📢 New Commentary: We discuss how analytic choices impact interpretation of studies on socioeconomic health inequities. We review 1) descriptive analogues of causal estimands (à la Young et al) with competing events; 2) timescale choice; and 3) covariate adjustment.
👉 academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
👉 academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
Thrilled to share our new preprint on causal ML for mediation analysis! We introduce causal ML estimators for interventional effects explicitly mapped to target trials assessing hypothetical interventions inducing distinct shifts in joint mediator distributions📊 📈🧪
#CausalSky #EpiSky
#CausalSky #EpiSky
link 📈🤖
Causal machine learning for high-dimensional mediation analysis using interventional effects mapped to a target trial (Chen, Vansteelandt, Burgner et al) Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are me
Causal machine learning for high-dimensional mediation analysis using interventional effects mapped to a target trial (Chen, Vansteelandt, Burgner et al) Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are me
April 24, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Thrilled to share our new preprint on causal ML for mediation analysis! We introduce causal ML estimators for interventional effects explicitly mapped to target trials assessing hypothetical interventions inducing distinct shifts in joint mediator distributions📊 📈🧪
#CausalSky #EpiSky
#CausalSky #EpiSky
Recording of my talk @causalab.bsky.social on using m-DAGs to guide the treatment of missing data now available 👇 #EpiSky #CausalSky
Check out the last Methods Series talk now on YouTube:
youtu.be/QuQnZ4don54?...
youtu.be/QuQnZ4don54?...
2 weeks away!
@margaritamb.bsky.social (Murdoch Children's Research Institute, University of Melbourne) continues the 2025 Methods Series @ki.se.
📆 April 22, 2025
⏰ 13.00 CEST/7.00 ET
📍 All Methods Series talks virtual
Register now 👇
stats.sender.net/forms/e7JD1d...
#publichealth #causalinference
@margaritamb.bsky.social (Murdoch Children's Research Institute, University of Melbourne) continues the 2025 Methods Series @ki.se.
📆 April 22, 2025
⏰ 13.00 CEST/7.00 ET
📍 All Methods Series talks virtual
Register now 👇
stats.sender.net/forms/e7JD1d...
#publichealth #causalinference
April 23, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Recording of my talk @causalab.bsky.social on using m-DAGs to guide the treatment of missing data now available 👇 #EpiSky #CausalSky
Looking forward to speaking at the CAUSALab methods seminar series next week! 👇
2 weeks away!
@margaritamb.bsky.social (Murdoch Children's Research Institute, University of Melbourne) continues the 2025 Methods Series @ki.se.
📆 April 22, 2025
⏰ 13.00 CEST/7.00 ET
📍 All Methods Series talks virtual
Register now 👇
stats.sender.net/forms/e7JD1d...
#publichealth #causalinference
@margaritamb.bsky.social (Murdoch Children's Research Institute, University of Melbourne) continues the 2025 Methods Series @ki.se.
📆 April 22, 2025
⏰ 13.00 CEST/7.00 ET
📍 All Methods Series talks virtual
Register now 👇
stats.sender.net/forms/e7JD1d...
#publichealth #causalinference
April 15, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Looking forward to speaking at the CAUSALab methods seminar series next week! 👇
Over the moon to have received the Moran Medal from the Australian Academy of Science!🥳
Amazing recognition, hopefully highlighting the key role of biostats & causal inference in high-quality research vimeo.com/1065735362
tinyurl.com/2m3dx2ms
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social
Amazing recognition, hopefully highlighting the key role of biostats & causal inference in high-quality research vimeo.com/1065735362
tinyurl.com/2m3dx2ms
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social
Professor Margarita Moreno-Betancur - Moran Medal 2025
This is "Professor Margarita Moreno-Betancur - Moran Medal 2025" by Australian Academy of Science on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos and the people…
vimeo.com
April 8, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Over the moon to have received the Moran Medal from the Australian Academy of Science!🥳
Amazing recognition, hopefully highlighting the key role of biostats & causal inference in high-quality research vimeo.com/1065735362
tinyurl.com/2m3dx2ms
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social
Amazing recognition, hopefully highlighting the key role of biostats & causal inference in high-quality research vimeo.com/1065735362
tinyurl.com/2m3dx2ms
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
This morning's #CIIG seminar with @margaritamb.bsky.social will be hosted from the Alan Turing Institute's 'Average Causal Effect (ACE)' room 😎
#CausalSky #EpiSky
#CausalSky #EpiSky
April 7, 2025 at 7:40 AM
This morning's #CIIG seminar with @margaritamb.bsky.social will be hosted from the Alan Turing Institute's 'Average Causal Effect (ACE)' room 😎
#CausalSky #EpiSky
#CausalSky #EpiSky
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
📣 📣NEW PAPER providing guidance on best practice for using multiple imputation when estimating interventional mediation effects, considering missingness mechanism, multiple imputation model specification, & variance estimation
#CausalSky #EpiSky
Read more 👇🏽
journals.lww.com/epidem/abstr...
#CausalSky #EpiSky
Read more 👇🏽
journals.lww.com/epidem/abstr...
Handling multivariable missing data in causal mediation... : Epidemiology
miologic studies. However, guidance is lacking on best practice for using multiple imputation when estimating interventional mediation effects, specifically regarding the role of missingness mechanism...
journals.lww.com
April 2, 2025 at 6:39 AM
📣 📣NEW PAPER providing guidance on best practice for using multiple imputation when estimating interventional mediation effects, considering missingness mechanism, multiple imputation model specification, & variance estimation
#CausalSky #EpiSky
Read more 👇🏽
journals.lww.com/epidem/abstr...
#CausalSky #EpiSky
Read more 👇🏽
journals.lww.com/epidem/abstr...
Looking forward to giving this talk! 👇😊
"Using missingness directed acyclic graphs (m-DAGs) to guide the treatment of multivariable missing data in epidemiological studies"
Don't miss the next #CIIG seminar with @margaritamb.bsky.social on 7th April 2025 at *9am* BST!
Register at: turing-uk.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Don't miss the next #CIIG seminar with @margaritamb.bsky.social on 7th April 2025 at *9am* BST!
Register at: turing-uk.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
March 27, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Looking forward to giving this talk! 👇😊
Thrilled to have received this funding for my causal inference research program - with my amazing team we shall continue to advance methods and provide expertise in this key area for another 5 years!!! 🥳☺️ #CausalSky #EpiSky
Exciting Monday news with two of our brilliant researchers awarded NHMRC Investigator Grants 🎊
Congratulations Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social and Julie Simpson @julieasimpson50.bsky.social
More:
www.vicbiostat.org.au/news
@mischhub.bsky.social @cebu-melbourne.bsky.social
Congratulations Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social and Julie Simpson @julieasimpson50.bsky.social
More:
www.vicbiostat.org.au/news
@mischhub.bsky.social @cebu-melbourne.bsky.social
News
www.vicbiostat.org.au
February 24, 2025 at 6:44 AM
Thrilled to have received this funding for my causal inference research program - with my amazing team we shall continue to advance methods and provide expertise in this key area for another 5 years!!! 🥳☺️ #CausalSky #EpiSky
Really happy with how this went! Our first missing data workshop completely grounded on the use of missingness DAGs (m-DAGs) to specify missingness assumptions 😀 #EpiSky #CausalSky
Another successful workshop from our missing data methods research group ✔️Led by Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social, with presenters Kate Lee, Ghazaleh Dashti @ghazalehd.bsky.social, Jiaxin Zhang, Cattram Nguyen, Melissa Middleton and Jessica Xu.
Thank you to all who came along!
Thank you to all who came along!
February 12, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Really happy with how this went! Our first missing data workshop completely grounded on the use of missingness DAGs (m-DAGs) to specify missingness assumptions 😀 #EpiSky #CausalSky
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
New paper!! We find that prevalent exposure designs are very common in dementia research, explain why they are ill-suited for causal inference, and show how the target trial framework helps us move beyond them.
Read here👇 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Read here👇 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Moving beyond the prevalent exposure design for causal inference in dementia research
As randomised trials are not always feasible or practical, observational studies remain
crucial for addressing many causal questions in the dementia prevention field. Through
a systematic search, we f...
www.thelancet.com
February 2, 2025 at 11:52 PM
New paper!! We find that prevalent exposure designs are very common in dementia research, explain why they are ill-suited for causal inference, and show how the target trial framework helps us move beyond them.
Read here👇 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Read here👇 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
NEW COMMENTARY in Epidemiology on causal estimands in studies of pre-diagnostic exposures and cancer survival
#EpiSkye #CausalSky
journals.lww.com/epidem/citat...
#EpiSkye #CausalSky
journals.lww.com/epidem/citat...
Pre-diagnostic exposures and cancer survival: Can a... : Epidemiology
An abstract is unavailable. This article is available as a PDF only.
journals.lww.com
January 30, 2025 at 7:29 AM
NEW COMMENTARY in Epidemiology on causal estimands in studies of pre-diagnostic exposures and cancer survival
#EpiSkye #CausalSky
journals.lww.com/epidem/citat...
#EpiSkye #CausalSky
journals.lww.com/epidem/citat...
NOW PUBLISHED! Correction to: “Canonical causal diagrams to guide the treatment of missing data in epidemiologic studies" doi.org/10.1093/aje/...
Grateful to have had the opportunity to correct our paper translating missingness DAGs (m-DAGs) into epidemiological practice #CausalSky #EpiSky
Grateful to have had the opportunity to correct our paper translating missingness DAGs (m-DAGs) into epidemiological practice #CausalSky #EpiSky
Correction to: “Canonical causal diagrams to guide the treatment of missing data in epidemiologic studies”
Moreno-Betancur et al.1 report and correct here errors in their article “Canonical causal diagrams to guide the treatment of missing data in epidemiologic
doi.org
January 28, 2025 at 2:19 AM
NOW PUBLISHED! Correction to: “Canonical causal diagrams to guide the treatment of missing data in epidemiologic studies" doi.org/10.1093/aje/...
Grateful to have had the opportunity to correct our paper translating missingness DAGs (m-DAGs) into epidemiological practice #CausalSky #EpiSky
Grateful to have had the opportunity to correct our paper translating missingness DAGs (m-DAGs) into epidemiological practice #CausalSky #EpiSky
Reposted by Margarita Moreno-Betancur
Hot off the press! 📣📣In this tutorial we illustrate available multiple imputation approaches for handling longitudinal data including when they are clustered within higher level clusters. A reproducible example with R and Stata code provided! #OpenAccess
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Multiple Imputation for Longitudinal Data: A Tutorial
Longitudinal studies are frequently used in medical research and involve collecting repeated measures on individuals over time. Observations from the same individual are invariably correlated and thu....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
January 27, 2025 at 4:14 AM
Hot off the press! 📣📣In this tutorial we illustrate available multiple imputation approaches for handling longitudinal data including when they are clustered within higher level clusters. A reproducible example with R and Stata code provided! #OpenAccess
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
WORKSHOPS! On causal inference, missing data and SMARTs, part of the ViCBiostat Summer School (10-14 Feb, hybrid). For more details & registration visit: www.vicbiostat.org.au/short-courses
#CausalSky #EpiSky
#CausalSky #EpiSky
January 22, 2025 at 5:08 AM
WORKSHOPS! On causal inference, missing data and SMARTs, part of the ViCBiostat Summer School (10-14 Feb, hybrid). For more details & registration visit: www.vicbiostat.org.au/short-courses
#CausalSky #EpiSky
#CausalSky #EpiSky
Recording of the great #WCE2024 DAG debate now available!👇
I feel compelled to say:
1. I was assigned my side - everyone knows I love DAGs, especially missingness DAGs!
2. But also, debate was NOT “are u for/against DAGs” even if Peter made it seem so - he’s a great debater!
#CausalSky #EpiSky
I feel compelled to say:
1. I was assigned my side - everyone knows I love DAGs, especially missingness DAGs!
2. But also, debate was NOT “are u for/against DAGs” even if Peter made it seem so - he’s a great debater!
#CausalSky #EpiSky
"Have directed acyclic graphs fullfilled their promise?" - the recording of my debate with @margaritamb.bsky.social at the World Congress of Epidemiology 2024 is now available on YouTube!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG79...
#EpiSky #CausalSky #WCE2025
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG79...
#EpiSky #CausalSky #WCE2025
WCE2024 - INT02 - Debate - Have DAGS fulfilled their promise?
YouTube video by World Congress of Epidemiology 2024
www.youtube.com
January 16, 2025 at 6:11 AM
Recording of the great #WCE2024 DAG debate now available!👇
I feel compelled to say:
1. I was assigned my side - everyone knows I love DAGs, especially missingness DAGs!
2. But also, debate was NOT “are u for/against DAGs” even if Peter made it seem so - he’s a great debater!
#CausalSky #EpiSky
I feel compelled to say:
1. I was assigned my side - everyone knows I love DAGs, especially missingness DAGs!
2. But also, debate was NOT “are u for/against DAGs” even if Peter made it seem so - he’s a great debater!
#CausalSky #EpiSky
NEW PAPER! "Causal inference in multi-cohort studies using the target trial framework to identify and minimize sources of bias" led by Marnie Downes
Check it out 👇
academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Check it out 👇
academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Causal inference in multi-cohort studies using the target trial framework to identify and minimize sources of bias
Abstract. Longitudinal cohort studies, which follow a group of individuals over time, provide the opportunity to examine causal effects of complex exposure
academic.oup.com
December 4, 2024 at 5:12 AM
NEW PAPER! "Causal inference in multi-cohort studies using the target trial framework to identify and minimize sources of bias" led by Marnie Downes
Check it out 👇
academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
#EpiSky #CausalSky
Check it out 👇
academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
#EpiSky #CausalSky