Margarita Moreno-Betancur
@margaritamb.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics. University of Melbourne & Murdoch Children’s Research Institute. Research in causal inference and missing data methods + child, lifecourse and social epidemiology
Without getting into the Hume/Kant debate that Ivan raised above, if we focus on target trial emulations or actual trials, the estimand can indeed (though doesn't have to!) be defined as the effect in an ideal trial (per my other message, given the asymptotic result)
September 11, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Without getting into the Hume/Kant debate that Ivan raised above, if we focus on target trial emulations or actual trials, the estimand can indeed (though doesn't have to!) be defined as the effect in an ideal trial (per my other message, given the asymptotic result)
So specifying the components of the ideal trial (up to the contrasts) is an intuitive (but not necessary!) way of defining some causal estimands (but maybe not all of them!). And as I argue can help being clear about some things that are often forgotten in the math notation
September 11, 2025 at 10:53 AM
So specifying the components of the ideal trial (up to the contrasts) is an intuitive (but not necessary!) way of defining some causal estimands (but maybe not all of them!). And as I argue can help being clear about some things that are often forgotten in the math notation
I am not sure what you think my premise is, but as I explain in the paper under asymptotic conditions the ACE defined using potential outcomes is mathematically equivalent to the effect in an ideal trial randomizing the target pop to the two interventions of interest
September 11, 2025 at 10:49 AM
I am not sure what you think my premise is, but as I explain in the paper under asymptotic conditions the ACE defined using potential outcomes is mathematically equivalent to the effect in an ideal trial randomizing the target pop to the two interventions of interest
My take on the addendum estimands (from afar), is that the approach overlooks causal identification assumptions (step 2 in my Figure 1) and suggests some estimands that are not actually proper (mathematically defined) defensivle estimands - they are more “analysis approaches”, ie skip steps 1 and 2
September 10, 2025 at 10:36 PM
My take on the addendum estimands (from afar), is that the approach overlooks causal identification assumptions (step 2 in my Figure 1) and suggests some estimands that are not actually proper (mathematically defined) defensivle estimands - they are more “analysis approaches”, ie skip steps 1 and 2
My 2 cents to clarifying links between formal causal inference and target and actual trials: arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026 @timpmorris.bsky.social @idiaz.bsky.social
arxiv.org
September 10, 2025 at 10:08 PM
My 2 cents to clarifying links between formal causal inference and target and actual trials: arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026 @timpmorris.bsky.social @idiaz.bsky.social
6/ And more: Impact of eliminating racial discrimination in reducing inequities in mental health and sleep problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (tinyurl.com/5nej5vch)
To what extent could eliminating racial discrimination reduce inequities in mental health and sleep problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children? A causal mediation study
Targeted policy interventions that eliminate racial discrimination against Aboriginal
and Torres Strait Islander children could have high potential to reduce inequities
in mental health and sleep prob...
tinyurl.com
July 10, 2025 at 1:33 AM
6/ And more: Impact of eliminating racial discrimination in reducing inequities in mental health and sleep problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (tinyurl.com/5nej5vch)
5/ Even more examples: Impact of potential interventions to reduce postnatal depression (tinyurl.com/3ej5mee4) and mid-life mental health disorders (tinyurl.com/yy8jbpwr) in those with a history of mental illness
Preventing postnatal depression: a causal mediation analysis of a 20-year preconception cohort | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Postnatal depression (PND) is common and predicts a range of adverse maternal and
offspring outcomes. PND rates are highest among women with persistent mental health
problems before pregnancy, and ant...
tinyurl.com
July 10, 2025 at 1:33 AM
5/ Even more examples: Impact of potential interventions to reduce postnatal depression (tinyurl.com/3ej5mee4) and mid-life mental health disorders (tinyurl.com/yy8jbpwr) in those with a history of mental illness
4/ More examples: Impact of potential interventions to reduce the heightened cancer risk in postmenopausal women with obesity (tinyurl.com/5b3kwjwk) and to reduce sex differences in melanoma cancer survival (tinyurl.com/57prtyr7)
Adiposity and breast, endometrial, and colorectal cancer risk in postmenopausal women: Quantification of the mediating effects of leptin, C‐reactive protein, fasting insulin, and estradiol
Background Mechanisms underlying the adiposity–cancer relationship are incompletely understood. We quantified the mediating roles of C-reactive protein (CRP), leptin, fasting insulin, and estradiol ...
tinyurl.com
July 10, 2025 at 1:33 AM
4/ More examples: Impact of potential interventions to reduce the heightened cancer risk in postmenopausal women with obesity (tinyurl.com/5b3kwjwk) and to reduce sex differences in melanoma cancer survival (tinyurl.com/57prtyr7)
3/ Examples: Impact of potential early childhood interventions to reduce socioeconomic disparities in children’s mental health (tinyurl.com/muttxx7j) and literacy skills (tinyurl.com/mvz8bxk8)
Addressing Child Mental Health Inequities Through Parental Mental Health and Preschool Attendance
BACKGROUND. Prevention is key to reducing socioeconomic inequities in children’s mental health problems, especially given limited availability and accessibility of services. We investigated the potent...
tinyurl.com
July 10, 2025 at 1:33 AM
3/ Examples: Impact of potential early childhood interventions to reduce socioeconomic disparities in children’s mental health (tinyurl.com/muttxx7j) and literacy skills (tinyurl.com/mvz8bxk8)
2/ The methodology uses interventional effects mapped to a “target trial” assessing the treatment strategies of interest, as proposed here tinyurl.com/yztb2hxs
Mediation effects that emulate a target randomised trial: Simulation-based evaluation of ill-defined interventions on multiple mediators - Margarita Moreno-Betancur, Paul Moran, Denise Becker, George ...
Many epidemiological questions concern potential interventions to alter the pathways presumed to mediate an association. For example, we consider a study that i...
tinyurl.com
July 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
2/ The methodology uses interventional effects mapped to a “target trial” assessing the treatment strategies of interest, as proposed here tinyurl.com/yztb2hxs