@macrodove.bsky.social
Reposted
3/3
That's because, as I explain below, an option framework explains why share prices in a largely-insolvent banking system are effectively a proxy for expected GDP growth. At the time I wrote this, Chinese banks were trading at 3-4 times book.
carnegieendowment.org/china-financ...
That's because, as I explain below, an option framework explains why share prices in a largely-insolvent banking system are effectively a proxy for expected GDP growth. At the time I wrote this, Chinese banks were trading at 3-4 times book.
carnegieendowment.org/china-financ...
What Do Bank Share Prices Tell Us About Growth?
The plummeting valuation of China’s banks suggests that investors are losing confidence in China’s growth prospects.
carnegieendowment.org
January 2, 2026 at 6:25 AM
3/3
That's because, as I explain below, an option framework explains why share prices in a largely-insolvent banking system are effectively a proxy for expected GDP growth. At the time I wrote this, Chinese banks were trading at 3-4 times book.
carnegieendowment.org/china-financ...
That's because, as I explain below, an option framework explains why share prices in a largely-insolvent banking system are effectively a proxy for expected GDP growth. At the time I wrote this, Chinese banks were trading at 3-4 times book.
carnegieendowment.org/china-financ...
Reposted
NEW: President Trump's first veto of his second term kills a unanimous bill to fund a major drinking water project in Colorado. Trump had threatened punishment for Colorado for imprisoning his ally Tina Peters. www.9news.com/article/news...
Trump vetoes bill to fund Arkansas Valley conduit in Colorado
President Trump vetoed a bill to fund a pipeline project to bring clean drinking water to communities on the Eastern Plains between Pueblo and Lamar.
www.9news.com
December 31, 2025 at 12:28 AM
NEW: President Trump's first veto of his second term kills a unanimous bill to fund a major drinking water project in Colorado. Trump had threatened punishment for Colorado for imprisoning his ally Tina Peters. www.9news.com/article/news...
Reposted
JUST IN: AG Pam Bondi deletes a post touting a chart as proof of the Trump administration's success in reducing drug overdoses—after being informed the data actually reflected the *Biden* administration’s record.
December 31, 2025 at 12:11 AM
JUST IN: AG Pam Bondi deletes a post touting a chart as proof of the Trump administration's success in reducing drug overdoses—after being informed the data actually reflected the *Biden* administration’s record.
Reposted
Bloomberg: "China has launched a national venture capital fund and three regional funds, together worth billions of dollars, as part of a push to foster home-grown tech champions. The national fund will run for 20 years."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China Starts State-Backed Venture Funds to Support Tech Startups
China has officially launched a national venture capital fund and three large regional funds, together worth billions of dollars, as part of a push to foster home-grown tech champions and improve inve...
www.bloomberg.com
December 27, 2025 at 4:16 AM
Bloomberg: "China has launched a national venture capital fund and three regional funds, together worth billions of dollars, as part of a push to foster home-grown tech champions. The national fund will run for 20 years."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted
I riff on @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social’s discussion of institutions and growth to explain why banking may be an important missing link in economists’ understanding of how and why growth takes place.
Institutions and growth: How banks used to provide the liquidity that fuels innovation and growth
Institutions and growth: How banks used to provide the liquidity that fuels innovation and growth
December 22, 2025 at 10:56 PM
I riff on @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social’s discussion of institutions and growth to explain why banking may be an important missing link in economists’ understanding of how and why growth takes place.
Institutions and growth: How banks used to provide the liquidity that fuels innovation and growth
Institutions and growth: How banks used to provide the liquidity that fuels innovation and growth
Reposted
DOGE was A LOT less likely to cancel contracts from companies that donated money to Republicans than companies that donated to Democrats.
December 25, 2025 at 10:47 PM
DOGE was A LOT less likely to cancel contracts from companies that donated money to Republicans than companies that donated to Democrats.
Reposted
If we can't even identify our enemies then how can we fight them?
Trump's National Security Strategy is the longest suicide note in American history
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Trump's National Security Strategy is the longest suicide note in American history
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
The Longest Suicide Note in American History
The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy targets liberal democracy itself.
www.theatlantic.com
December 16, 2025 at 1:59 PM
If we can't even identify our enemies then how can we fight them?
Trump's National Security Strategy is the longest suicide note in American history
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Trump's National Security Strategy is the longest suicide note in American history
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Reposted
1/6
Very interesting Caixin article on how the Big Four AMCs, badly hurt by falling real estate prices and weak NPL resolution, are buying bank stocks and recognizing the gap between their prices and their higher book values as paper profits.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-12-12/i...
Very interesting Caixin article on how the Big Four AMCs, badly hurt by falling real estate prices and weak NPL resolution, are buying bank stocks and recognizing the gap between their prices and their higher book values as paper profits.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-12-12/i...
In Depth: China Bad-Debt Managers’ Bet on Bank Stocks Could Backfire
‘Big Four’ asset management companies have each taken large stakes in major lenders, allowing them to use accounting magic to book instant profits
www.caixinglobal.com
December 13, 2025 at 7:32 AM
1/6
Very interesting Caixin article on how the Big Four AMCs, badly hurt by falling real estate prices and weak NPL resolution, are buying bank stocks and recognizing the gap between their prices and their higher book values as paper profits.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-12-12/i...
Very interesting Caixin article on how the Big Four AMCs, badly hurt by falling real estate prices and weak NPL resolution, are buying bank stocks and recognizing the gap between their prices and their higher book values as paper profits.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-12-12/i...
Reposted
A+ trolling from Zelenskyy
December 13, 2025 at 2:33 AM
A+ trolling from Zelenskyy
Reposted
Bash: "Do you believe if there was a second strike to eliminate any survivors that it constitutes a war crime?"
Mark Kelly: "It seems to."
Bash: "If you received that order, would you have carried it out?"
Mark Kelly: "No…Going after survivors in the water is unlawful."
Mark Kelly: "It seems to."
Bash: "If you received that order, would you have carried it out?"
Mark Kelly: "No…Going after survivors in the water is unlawful."
November 30, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Bash: "Do you believe if there was a second strike to eliminate any survivors that it constitutes a war crime?"
Mark Kelly: "It seems to."
Bash: "If you received that order, would you have carried it out?"
Mark Kelly: "No…Going after survivors in the water is unlawful."
Mark Kelly: "It seems to."
Bash: "If you received that order, would you have carried it out?"
Mark Kelly: "No…Going after survivors in the water is unlawful."
Reposted
Reposted
Turns out that when you describe how "the punters" feel about the economy, Americans think you're talking about blokes who kick footballs, rather than "the people." (Hilarity ensued.)
November 27, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Turns out that when you describe how "the punters" feel about the economy, Americans think you're talking about blokes who kick footballs, rather than "the people." (Hilarity ensued.)
Reposted
The draft dodging idiot posted a pic of this West Point plaque. It contains these words:
“Our American Code of Military Obedience requires that, should orders and the law ever conflict, our officers must obey the law.”
That is precisely what Senator Mark Kelly told officers to do. #NoSedition
“Our American Code of Military Obedience requires that, should orders and the law ever conflict, our officers must obey the law.”
That is precisely what Senator Mark Kelly told officers to do. #NoSedition
November 25, 2025 at 6:49 PM
The draft dodging idiot posted a pic of this West Point plaque. It contains these words:
“Our American Code of Military Obedience requires that, should orders and the law ever conflict, our officers must obey the law.”
That is precisely what Senator Mark Kelly told officers to do. #NoSedition
“Our American Code of Military Obedience requires that, should orders and the law ever conflict, our officers must obey the law.”
That is precisely what Senator Mark Kelly told officers to do. #NoSedition
Reposted
🎵 “Join Ice” - @wellesmusic on Colbert
November 22, 2025 at 1:54 PM
🎵 “Join Ice” - @wellesmusic on Colbert
Reposted
AOC to @pabloreports.bsky.social : A swastika is one of the clearest symbols of hatred in all of humanity… to remove that designation… indicates a possible collaboration with those very elements, which I think is genuinely frightening to any American.
November 21, 2025 at 12:00 AM
AOC to @pabloreports.bsky.social : A swastika is one of the clearest symbols of hatred in all of humanity… to remove that designation… indicates a possible collaboration with those very elements, which I think is genuinely frightening to any American.
Reposted
News of a critical counterattack by Ukraine in Pokrovsk
Needing to unblock key lines of logistics, UKR troops have been daringly dropped-in by low flying helicopters in territory Russian claimed was captured.
My initial reaction is it's a huge gamble, but the only other option was to retreat.
Needing to unblock key lines of logistics, UKR troops have been daringly dropped-in by low flying helicopters in territory Russian claimed was captured.
My initial reaction is it's a huge gamble, but the only other option was to retreat.
October 31, 2025 at 8:29 PM
News of a critical counterattack by Ukraine in Pokrovsk
Needing to unblock key lines of logistics, UKR troops have been daringly dropped-in by low flying helicopters in territory Russian claimed was captured.
My initial reaction is it's a huge gamble, but the only other option was to retreat.
Needing to unblock key lines of logistics, UKR troops have been daringly dropped-in by low flying helicopters in territory Russian claimed was captured.
My initial reaction is it's a huge gamble, but the only other option was to retreat.
Reposted
Bessent on American farmers being hurt by tariffs: "Martha, in case you don't know it, I'm actually a soybean farmer, so I have felt this pain too."
October 26, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Bessent on American farmers being hurt by tariffs: "Martha, in case you don't know it, I'm actually a soybean farmer, so I have felt this pain too."
Reposted
Leavitt: "At this moment in time, of course, the ballroom is really the president's main priority."
October 23, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Leavitt: "At this moment in time, of course, the ballroom is really the president's main priority."
Reposted
The United States is no longer negotiating with Canada because the America's Republican President does not understand his predecessor's view of tariffs.
Forget the clip that worries the President. Reagan was consistent, and here's a different speech where he made his case.
Forget the clip that worries the President. Reagan was consistent, and here's a different speech where he made his case.
October 24, 2025 at 4:04 PM
The United States is no longer negotiating with Canada because the America's Republican President does not understand his predecessor's view of tariffs.
Forget the clip that worries the President. Reagan was consistent, and here's a different speech where he made his case.
Forget the clip that worries the President. Reagan was consistent, and here's a different speech where he made his case.
Reposted
EXCLUSIVE: Thousands of leaked messages show leaders of Young Republican groups joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape in a private Telegram chat.
Inside rising GOP leaders’ racist chats — obtained by POLITICO and spanning more than 7 months👇
Inside rising GOP leaders’ racist chats — obtained by POLITICO and spanning more than 7 months👇
‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat
Thousands of private messages reveal young GOP leaders joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape.
www.politico.com
October 14, 2025 at 5:22 PM
EXCLUSIVE: Thousands of leaked messages show leaders of Young Republican groups joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape in a private Telegram chat.
Inside rising GOP leaders’ racist chats — obtained by POLITICO and spanning more than 7 months👇
Inside rising GOP leaders’ racist chats — obtained by POLITICO and spanning more than 7 months👇
Reposted
Reposted
Shapiro: I filed that amicus brief last night to make it very clear that the Pennsylvania National Guard is under my command.
The way the President has chosen to deploy the Guard in other states—and, in at least one case, deploy the Guard from one state into another—is extremely dangerous.
The way the President has chosen to deploy the Guard in other states—and, in at least one case, deploy the Guard from one state into another—is extremely dangerous.
October 9, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Shapiro: I filed that amicus brief last night to make it very clear that the Pennsylvania National Guard is under my command.
The way the President has chosen to deploy the Guard in other states—and, in at least one case, deploy the Guard from one state into another—is extremely dangerous.
The way the President has chosen to deploy the Guard in other states—and, in at least one case, deploy the Guard from one state into another—is extremely dangerous.
Reposted
Welp, here it is: maybe the funniest thing we've ever done, in its entirety.
The Onion Investigates: Jeffrey Epstein
YouTube video by The Onion
www.youtube.com
October 9, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Welp, here it is: maybe the funniest thing we've ever done, in its entirety.
Reposted
"El Paso Bishop Mark Seitz, who attended the meeting, said Chicago-born Pope Leo was visibly moved after being handed dozens of letters from immigrants describing their fears of arrest and separation under Trump’s enforcement policies..."
www.thedailybeast.com/pope-leo-ram...
www.thedailybeast.com/pope-leo-ram...
Pope Leo Ramps Up His Trump Feud With Order to American Bishops
The Chicago-born pontiff has sharpened his criticism of the Trump administration and reportedly decided to take action.
www.thedailybeast.com
October 8, 2025 at 7:32 PM
"El Paso Bishop Mark Seitz, who attended the meeting, said Chicago-born Pope Leo was visibly moved after being handed dozens of letters from immigrants describing their fears of arrest and separation under Trump’s enforcement policies..."
www.thedailybeast.com/pope-leo-ram...
www.thedailybeast.com/pope-leo-ram...