Liam
@lrbatman1945.bsky.social
Political stats from a neurodivergent leftie in NZ
TVNZ Verian Poll tonight
My guess
LAB: 36
NAT: 32
GRN: 10
ACT: 7
NZF: 7
TPM: 2
My guess
LAB: 36
NAT: 32
GRN: 10
ACT: 7
NZF: 7
TPM: 2
December 7, 2025 at 10:07 PM
TVNZ Verian Poll tonight
My guess
LAB: 36
NAT: 32
GRN: 10
ACT: 7
NZF: 7
TPM: 2
My guess
LAB: 36
NAT: 32
GRN: 10
ACT: 7
NZF: 7
TPM: 2
Looking back at my prediction thread. May have got a couple trends wrong, but happy with how I called the council races overall in Christchurch
Thoughts on how Christchurch local elections will play out. Just gut instinct...
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October 19, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Looking back at my prediction thread. May have got a couple trends wrong, but happy with how I called the council races overall in Christchurch
Thoughts on how Christchurch local elections will play out. Just gut instinct...
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1/
October 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Thoughts on how Christchurch local elections will play out. Just gut instinct...
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1/
Another thread tonight. And it's the remainder of west Auckland tonight.
June 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Another thread tonight. And it's the remainder of west Auckland tonight.
My promised thread, covering the east coast of the North Island
June 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
My promised thread, covering the east coast of the North Island
Next electorate graphic thread to drop tonight.
Gonna cover the eastern coast of the North Island; East Coast, Napier, Tukituki and Wairarapa
Gonna cover the eastern coast of the North Island; East Coast, Napier, Tukituki and Wairarapa
June 22, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Next electorate graphic thread to drop tonight.
Gonna cover the eastern coast of the North Island; East Coast, Napier, Tukituki and Wairarapa
Gonna cover the eastern coast of the North Island; East Coast, Napier, Tukituki and Wairarapa
As promised, tonight's thread of election graphics are for the remaining Wellington seats
April 24, 2025 at 9:15 AM
As promised, tonight's thread of election graphics are for the remaining Wellington seats
Will post graphics for the remaining seats in Wellington tonight.
April 23, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Will post graphics for the remaining seats in Wellington tonight.
Another thread of 2023 election results. This thread is polishing off the South Island electorate seats.
April 20, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Another thread of 2023 election results. This thread is polishing off the South Island electorate seats.
Starting to feel Albanese has a good chance of a majority on May 3rd.
April 12, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Starting to feel Albanese has a good chance of a majority on May 3rd.
A Tony Benn quote comes to mind with the Nats announcing $9b in new defence spending.
'If we can find the money to kill people, we can find the money to help people.'
'If we can find the money to kill people, we can find the money to help people.'
April 7, 2025 at 7:18 PM
A Tony Benn quote comes to mind with the Nats announcing $9b in new defence spending.
'If we can find the money to kill people, we can find the money to help people.'
'If we can find the money to kill people, we can find the money to help people.'
Reposted by Liam
AOC: If you are an LGBTQ kid or family, we cannot throw you under the bus in order to win an election. In this house, we stand together
March 22, 2025 at 12:07 AM
AOC: If you are an LGBTQ kid or family, we cannot throw you under the bus in order to win an election. In this house, we stand together
What's happening with UK Labour absolutely sickens me. Cowardly Keir Starmer has sold out every principle the party was built on and turned on the very people the party was founded to stand up for.
Starmer, Reeves, Streeting, Kendall, Akehurst. They need to go.
Starmer, Reeves, Streeting, Kendall, Akehurst. They need to go.
March 20, 2025 at 5:02 AM
What's happening with UK Labour absolutely sickens me. Cowardly Keir Starmer has sold out every principle the party was built on and turned on the very people the party was founded to stand up for.
Starmer, Reeves, Streeting, Kendall, Akehurst. They need to go.
Starmer, Reeves, Streeting, Kendall, Akehurst. They need to go.
In the midst of polishing off the rest of the South Island electorates for their graphics, but that Talbot Mills poll!
That's a 7.1% swing from National to Labour. Reflected on the electorates, that would be Labour winning seats like Hamilton East and Whanganui, not just Banks P and Mt Roskill
That's a 7.1% swing from National to Labour. Reflected on the electorates, that would be Labour winning seats like Hamilton East and Whanganui, not just Banks P and Mt Roskill
March 15, 2025 at 1:17 AM
In the midst of polishing off the rest of the South Island electorates for their graphics, but that Talbot Mills poll!
That's a 7.1% swing from National to Labour. Reflected on the electorates, that would be Labour winning seats like Hamilton East and Whanganui, not just Banks P and Mt Roskill
That's a 7.1% swing from National to Labour. Reflected on the electorates, that would be Labour winning seats like Hamilton East and Whanganui, not just Banks P and Mt Roskill
Today's 2023 election graphics thread covers the remaining Maori electorate seats.
March 8, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Today's 2023 election graphics thread covers the remaining Maori electorate seats.
This thread is for the three Green wins in 2023
February 28, 2025 at 9:34 PM
This thread is for the three Green wins in 2023
More 2023 election result graphics
This thread is for the three closest Labour held seats
This thread is for the three closest Labour held seats
February 28, 2025 at 9:09 PM
More 2023 election result graphics
This thread is for the three closest Labour held seats
This thread is for the three closest Labour held seats
Watching Canadian Tories losing their shit as their landslide evaporates brings a smile to my face.
The unhinged poll denialsm is gold.
The unhinged poll denialsm is gold.
February 20, 2025 at 3:48 AM
Watching Canadian Tories losing their shit as their landslide evaporates brings a smile to my face.
The unhinged poll denialsm is gold.
The unhinged poll denialsm is gold.
Recent polls a good sign for Labour and the left.
Noticed that Verian, Talbot Mills and Curia all have an average swing from National to Labour of 5% (would nab Labour seats like Mt Roskill, Wairarapa and Banks if electorates swing the same).
Noticed that Verian, Talbot Mills and Curia all have an average swing from National to Labour of 5% (would nab Labour seats like Mt Roskill, Wairarapa and Banks if electorates swing the same).
February 10, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Recent polls a good sign for Labour and the left.
Noticed that Verian, Talbot Mills and Curia all have an average swing from National to Labour of 5% (would nab Labour seats like Mt Roskill, Wairarapa and Banks if electorates swing the same).
Noticed that Verian, Talbot Mills and Curia all have an average swing from National to Labour of 5% (would nab Labour seats like Mt Roskill, Wairarapa and Banks if electorates swing the same).
I'd stop short of saying it's a cover up, but David Seymour's handling of the complaint against Jago was awful.
February 7, 2025 at 12:41 AM
I'd stop short of saying it's a cover up, but David Seymour's handling of the complaint against Jago was awful.
So Stuart Nash has ditched Labour? Not surprised to be honest.
Still, one less Blairite in the NZLP. What's the bet he'll follow in Shane Jones' footsteps?
Still, one less Blairite in the NZLP. What's the bet he'll follow in Shane Jones' footsteps?
January 25, 2025 at 12:22 AM
So Stuart Nash has ditched Labour? Not surprised to be honest.
Still, one less Blairite in the NZLP. What's the bet he'll follow in Shane Jones' footsteps?
Still, one less Blairite in the NZLP. What's the bet he'll follow in Shane Jones' footsteps?
Right, need to get a couple of submissions done today.
Might see if I can get a few graphics done today too.
Might see if I can get a few graphics done today too.
January 4, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Right, need to get a couple of submissions done today.
Might see if I can get a few graphics done today too.
Might see if I can get a few graphics done today too.
Reposted by Liam
“8 Critical Jimmy Carter Quotes You Won’t See in Most Mainstream Media Obits”
From me, on how the late ex-president slammed US foreign policy, backed Bernie Sanders, and condemned Israeli ‘apartheid’.
From me, on how the late ex-president slammed US foreign policy, backed Bernie Sanders, and condemned Israeli ‘apartheid’.
8 Critical Jimmy Carter Quotes You Won’t See in Most Mainstream Media Obits
The late ex-president slammed US foreign policy, backed Bernie Sanders, and condemned Israeli ‘apartheid.'
open.substack.com
December 30, 2024 at 1:24 AM
“8 Critical Jimmy Carter Quotes You Won’t See in Most Mainstream Media Obits”
From me, on how the late ex-president slammed US foreign policy, backed Bernie Sanders, and condemned Israeli ‘apartheid’.
From me, on how the late ex-president slammed US foreign policy, backed Bernie Sanders, and condemned Israeli ‘apartheid’.
I will complete the 2023 election graphic series I started at some point, but here's an end of year poll average and map for you all.
Polling average includes the following polls:
TVNZ Verian
Post Freshwater
Talbot Mills
TPU Curia
🧵
Changes are with 2023 election
Polling average includes the following polls:
TVNZ Verian
Post Freshwater
Talbot Mills
TPU Curia
🧵
Changes are with 2023 election
December 27, 2024 at 2:17 AM
I will complete the 2023 election graphic series I started at some point, but here's an end of year poll average and map for you all.
Polling average includes the following polls:
TVNZ Verian
Post Freshwater
Talbot Mills
TPU Curia
🧵
Changes are with 2023 election
Polling average includes the following polls:
TVNZ Verian
Post Freshwater
Talbot Mills
TPU Curia
🧵
Changes are with 2023 election
Would be wonderful if city rail networks didn’t have to stop over Christmas/New Years.
December 26, 2024 at 10:17 PM
Would be wonderful if city rail networks didn’t have to stop over Christmas/New Years.