Innes Ward

This one is a must watch. I think it could go either way. Pauline Cotter in for a rematch against Ali Jones after Cotter held on by 16 votes last time.

Central Ward

Jake McLellan could be in trouble with splits from his left. I don't buy Mauger simp Mike Yardley's prediction of a third place finish, but a win for Raf Manji not out of the question

10/

Papanui Ward

Simon Britten has put forward a good challenge to Vic Henstock, but i reckon a similar outcome to Burwood, a hold for a Mauger ally but with a swing left

9/

Riccarton Ward

Tyla Harrison-Hunt's been doing well. Tony Simons has emerged as a competitor, but Sam Yau and Debbie Mora are likely to split the right vote. Could be close, but I'd pick Tyla winning.

8/

Banks Peninsula Ward

Tyrone Fields has been a very active councilor, I don't see any indicators that he's in trouble and should easily nab another term.

7/

Heathcote Ward

Nathaniel Herz Jadine is my pick to succeed Sara Templeton. He's been doing well in the community. His opponent, Ian Kearney, hurt himself when his service in Sumner community fire brigade was... over-exaggerated

6/

Burwood Ward

Mauger ally Kelly Barber has a good chance of holding on, but new Labour/TPC candidate Fionna Chapman has been going hard out in the ward, a solid candidate.

I think Kelly may get another term, but Fionna will get a swing in her favour.

5/

Coastal Ward

Celeste Donovan has been an awesome councilor, still retains a strong bedrock in New Brighton. Jo Zervos has a good profile in the community too and was help by James Daniels backing out, but I'm still picking a Celeste win.

4/

Unopposed or easy re-election for:

Yani Johanson (Linwood)
Tim Scandrett (Cashmere)
Sam McDonald (Waimairi)
Mark Peters (Hornby)
Aaron Keown (Harewood)
Andrei Moore (Halswell)

David Cartwright highly likely succeed Jamie Gough in Fendalton

3/

The mayoral race is going to be close. Sara's been a solid contender. Phil Mauger has had some gaffes, but it's not put him out of the race.

It could go either way.

2/

And last, Upper Harbour

A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.

National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%

To New Lynn

The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.

National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%

First is Kelston.

Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.

Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.

And last, Wairarapa.

The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.

The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide

Third is Tukituki.

Labour's Anna Lorck falls as a 13% swing returns the seat to National. New MP Catherine Wedd will take her place with a comfortable majority.

Much like Napier, Tukituki delivers a comfortable win for National and the right bloc on the party vote, a 15.2% swing right.

Next is Napier

With Stuart Nash gone, National's Katie Nimon succeeds in her second attempt, beating back Labour newcomer Mark Hutchison.

The fairly conservative seat returns to form, giving National and the right bloc a win on the party vote, 59% to the left's 36%

First is the East Coast.

Following Kiri Allan's sad departure, Tamati Coffey steps up to try and keep the East Coast in Labour hands, but falls to National's Dana Kirkpatrick.

National is able to score a party vote win, with an NZF surge helping out the right bloc.

And last, Hutt South.

National's Chris Bishop is able to win back this seat after a close contest, but Labour's Ginny Andersen will stay on as a list MP, hot on Bishop's heels.

National's party vote lead is a narrow 1.5% over Labour, but the left wins the bloc vote, 49.3% to 44.9%

Second is Mana.

An easy second term for Labour's Barbara Edmonds as she holds a strong majority over National. Former mayor Andy Foster enters as a list MP for New Zealand First.

The Labour heartland returns a decisive party vote win for Labour, with the left bloc winning despite a right swing