Liam
@lrbatman1945.bsky.social
Political stats from a neurodivergent leftie in NZ
And last, Upper Harbour
A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.
National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%
A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.
National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%
June 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM
And last, Upper Harbour
A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.
National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%
A 17% swing sees Cameron Brewer regain the seat for National. ACT's Karen Chhour will return on the list, with Labour's Vanushi Walters joining after the departure of David Parker.
National wins a party vote majority here, with the right bloc scoring 62.8%
To New Lynn
The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.
National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%
The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.
National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%
June 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM
To New Lynn
The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.
National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%
The Auckland tidal wave hits the west as Paulo Garcia becomes the first National MP to hold the seat. Labour's Deborah Russell will stay as a list MP and be joined by Steve Abel of the Greens.
National wins the party vote with a 10.4% lead over Labour, with the right scoring 50%
First is Kelston.
Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.
Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.
Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.
Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.
June 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM
First is Kelston.
Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.
Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.
Despite a 16% swing against her, Labour deputy Carmel Sepuloni holds this western stalwart seat. She will be joined by Golriz Ghahraman for a period on the list.
Despite a swing to the right of 13.3% Labour holds the party vote, and the left bloc scores a win.
And last, Wairarapa.
The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.
The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide
The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.
The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide
June 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
And last, Wairarapa.
The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.
The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide
The most marginal of the seats, Mike Butterick manages to win a small majority over Labour's Kieran McAnulty, who will return on the list. Celia Wade-Brown of the Greens will follow later.
The party vote mirrors the East Coast results, a win for the Nats, but not a landslide
Third is Tukituki.
Labour's Anna Lorck falls as a 13% swing returns the seat to National. New MP Catherine Wedd will take her place with a comfortable majority.
Much like Napier, Tukituki delivers a comfortable win for National and the right bloc on the party vote, a 15.2% swing right.
Labour's Anna Lorck falls as a 13% swing returns the seat to National. New MP Catherine Wedd will take her place with a comfortable majority.
Much like Napier, Tukituki delivers a comfortable win for National and the right bloc on the party vote, a 15.2% swing right.
June 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Third is Tukituki.
Labour's Anna Lorck falls as a 13% swing returns the seat to National. New MP Catherine Wedd will take her place with a comfortable majority.
Much like Napier, Tukituki delivers a comfortable win for National and the right bloc on the party vote, a 15.2% swing right.
Labour's Anna Lorck falls as a 13% swing returns the seat to National. New MP Catherine Wedd will take her place with a comfortable majority.
Much like Napier, Tukituki delivers a comfortable win for National and the right bloc on the party vote, a 15.2% swing right.
Next is Napier
With Stuart Nash gone, National's Katie Nimon succeeds in her second attempt, beating back Labour newcomer Mark Hutchison.
The fairly conservative seat returns to form, giving National and the right bloc a win on the party vote, 59% to the left's 36%
With Stuart Nash gone, National's Katie Nimon succeeds in her second attempt, beating back Labour newcomer Mark Hutchison.
The fairly conservative seat returns to form, giving National and the right bloc a win on the party vote, 59% to the left's 36%
June 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Next is Napier
With Stuart Nash gone, National's Katie Nimon succeeds in her second attempt, beating back Labour newcomer Mark Hutchison.
The fairly conservative seat returns to form, giving National and the right bloc a win on the party vote, 59% to the left's 36%
With Stuart Nash gone, National's Katie Nimon succeeds in her second attempt, beating back Labour newcomer Mark Hutchison.
The fairly conservative seat returns to form, giving National and the right bloc a win on the party vote, 59% to the left's 36%
First is the East Coast.
Following Kiri Allan's sad departure, Tamati Coffey steps up to try and keep the East Coast in Labour hands, but falls to National's Dana Kirkpatrick.
National is able to score a party vote win, with an NZF surge helping out the right bloc.
Following Kiri Allan's sad departure, Tamati Coffey steps up to try and keep the East Coast in Labour hands, but falls to National's Dana Kirkpatrick.
National is able to score a party vote win, with an NZF surge helping out the right bloc.
June 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
First is the East Coast.
Following Kiri Allan's sad departure, Tamati Coffey steps up to try and keep the East Coast in Labour hands, but falls to National's Dana Kirkpatrick.
National is able to score a party vote win, with an NZF surge helping out the right bloc.
Following Kiri Allan's sad departure, Tamati Coffey steps up to try and keep the East Coast in Labour hands, but falls to National's Dana Kirkpatrick.
National is able to score a party vote win, with an NZF surge helping out the right bloc.
And last, Hutt South.
National's Chris Bishop is able to win back this seat after a close contest, but Labour's Ginny Andersen will stay on as a list MP, hot on Bishop's heels.
National's party vote lead is a narrow 1.5% over Labour, but the left wins the bloc vote, 49.3% to 44.9%
National's Chris Bishop is able to win back this seat after a close contest, but Labour's Ginny Andersen will stay on as a list MP, hot on Bishop's heels.
National's party vote lead is a narrow 1.5% over Labour, but the left wins the bloc vote, 49.3% to 44.9%
April 24, 2025 at 9:15 AM
And last, Hutt South.
National's Chris Bishop is able to win back this seat after a close contest, but Labour's Ginny Andersen will stay on as a list MP, hot on Bishop's heels.
National's party vote lead is a narrow 1.5% over Labour, but the left wins the bloc vote, 49.3% to 44.9%
National's Chris Bishop is able to win back this seat after a close contest, but Labour's Ginny Andersen will stay on as a list MP, hot on Bishop's heels.
National's party vote lead is a narrow 1.5% over Labour, but the left wins the bloc vote, 49.3% to 44.9%
Second is Mana.
An easy second term for Labour's Barbara Edmonds as she holds a strong majority over National. Former mayor Andy Foster enters as a list MP for New Zealand First.
The Labour heartland returns a decisive party vote win for Labour, with the left bloc winning despite a right swing
An easy second term for Labour's Barbara Edmonds as she holds a strong majority over National. Former mayor Andy Foster enters as a list MP for New Zealand First.
The Labour heartland returns a decisive party vote win for Labour, with the left bloc winning despite a right swing
April 24, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Second is Mana.
An easy second term for Labour's Barbara Edmonds as she holds a strong majority over National. Former mayor Andy Foster enters as a list MP for New Zealand First.
The Labour heartland returns a decisive party vote win for Labour, with the left bloc winning despite a right swing
An easy second term for Labour's Barbara Edmonds as she holds a strong majority over National. Former mayor Andy Foster enters as a list MP for New Zealand First.
The Labour heartland returns a decisive party vote win for Labour, with the left bloc winning despite a right swing
First up is Ohariu.
Despite a 12% swing in her favour, National's deputy Nicola Willis fails to unseat Labour's Greg O'Connor. The Greens' Stephanie Rodgers wins a strong third place.
National is able to win a 5.6% lead on party vote, but a strong Green vote gets the left bloc a win here
Despite a 12% swing in her favour, National's deputy Nicola Willis fails to unseat Labour's Greg O'Connor. The Greens' Stephanie Rodgers wins a strong third place.
National is able to win a 5.6% lead on party vote, but a strong Green vote gets the left bloc a win here
April 24, 2025 at 9:15 AM
First up is Ohariu.
Despite a 12% swing in her favour, National's deputy Nicola Willis fails to unseat Labour's Greg O'Connor. The Greens' Stephanie Rodgers wins a strong third place.
National is able to win a 5.6% lead on party vote, but a strong Green vote gets the left bloc a win here
Despite a 12% swing in her favour, National's deputy Nicola Willis fails to unseat Labour's Greg O'Connor. The Greens' Stephanie Rodgers wins a strong third place.
National is able to win a 5.6% lead on party vote, but a strong Green vote gets the left bloc a win here
And last is Invercargill. After a close call in 2020, National's Penny Simmonds wins a second term with a comfortable majority. Labour list MP Liz Craig is gone.
Much like the rest of Southland, Invercargill sees a surge for National and NZF, driving the 14.4% swing to the right bloc
Much like the rest of Southland, Invercargill sees a surge for National and NZF, driving the 14.4% swing to the right bloc
April 20, 2025 at 1:39 AM
And last is Invercargill. After a close call in 2020, National's Penny Simmonds wins a second term with a comfortable majority. Labour list MP Liz Craig is gone.
Much like the rest of Southland, Invercargill sees a surge for National and NZF, driving the 14.4% swing to the right bloc
Much like the rest of Southland, Invercargill sees a surge for National and NZF, driving the 14.4% swing to the right bloc
Third is Southland
National's Joseph Mooney scores himself a second term with a swing of almost 15%. He will be joined by ACT's Todd Stephenson on the list.
Southland sees a National surge on party vote, driving the right's comeback with a 13% swing on the bloc vote
National's Joseph Mooney scores himself a second term with a swing of almost 15%. He will be joined by ACT's Todd Stephenson on the list.
Southland sees a National surge on party vote, driving the right's comeback with a 13% swing on the bloc vote
April 20, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Third is Southland
National's Joseph Mooney scores himself a second term with a swing of almost 15%. He will be joined by ACT's Todd Stephenson on the list.
Southland sees a National surge on party vote, driving the right's comeback with a 13% swing on the bloc vote
National's Joseph Mooney scores himself a second term with a swing of almost 15%. He will be joined by ACT's Todd Stephenson on the list.
Southland sees a National surge on party vote, driving the right's comeback with a 13% swing on the bloc vote
Second is Waitaki.
Following the retirement of Jacqui Dean, new National candidate Miles Anderson holds the seat with a comfortable majority, a swing of 10.1% in his favour.
National regains the party vote lead, with it and New Zealand First giving the right bloc its swing of 12%
Following the retirement of Jacqui Dean, new National candidate Miles Anderson holds the seat with a comfortable majority, a swing of 10.1% in his favour.
National regains the party vote lead, with it and New Zealand First giving the right bloc its swing of 12%
April 20, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Second is Waitaki.
Following the retirement of Jacqui Dean, new National candidate Miles Anderson holds the seat with a comfortable majority, a swing of 10.1% in his favour.
National regains the party vote lead, with it and New Zealand First giving the right bloc its swing of 12%
Following the retirement of Jacqui Dean, new National candidate Miles Anderson holds the seat with a comfortable majority, a swing of 10.1% in his favour.
National regains the party vote lead, with it and New Zealand First giving the right bloc its swing of 12%
West Coast-Tasman is first. National's Maureen Pugh is able to pull off a small majority over Labour's Damien O'Connor. O'Connor stays in parliament as a list MP.
On party vote, National wins a 10% lead over Labour, with a resurgent right bloc winning a swing of 13.6%
On party vote, National wins a 10% lead over Labour, with a resurgent right bloc winning a swing of 13.6%
April 20, 2025 at 1:39 AM
West Coast-Tasman is first. National's Maureen Pugh is able to pull off a small majority over Labour's Damien O'Connor. O'Connor stays in parliament as a list MP.
On party vote, National wins a 10% lead over Labour, with a resurgent right bloc winning a swing of 13.6%
On party vote, National wins a 10% lead over Labour, with a resurgent right bloc winning a swing of 13.6%
And Te Tai Tonga to finish.
Takuta Ferris is able to reclaim the southern most Maori seat from Labour's Rino Tirakatene, who will stay in parliament as a list MP for the first part of the term.
The party vote sees a swing right of 5%, though the Greens and Te Pati Maori gain from Labour's fall
Takuta Ferris is able to reclaim the southern most Maori seat from Labour's Rino Tirakatene, who will stay in parliament as a list MP for the first part of the term.
The party vote sees a swing right of 5%, though the Greens and Te Pati Maori gain from Labour's fall
March 8, 2025 at 3:17 AM
And Te Tai Tonga to finish.
Takuta Ferris is able to reclaim the southern most Maori seat from Labour's Rino Tirakatene, who will stay in parliament as a list MP for the first part of the term.
The party vote sees a swing right of 5%, though the Greens and Te Pati Maori gain from Labour's fall
Takuta Ferris is able to reclaim the southern most Maori seat from Labour's Rino Tirakatene, who will stay in parliament as a list MP for the first part of the term.
The party vote sees a swing right of 5%, though the Greens and Te Pati Maori gain from Labour's fall
Ikaroa-Rawhiti stays steadfast for Labour. New candidate Cushla Tangaere-Manuel holds the seat against her predecessor Meka Whaitiri, following her defection to Te Pati Maori.
While Te Pati Maori likewise surges, this seat gives Labour its best party vote performance in the Maori seats.
While Te Pati Maori likewise surges, this seat gives Labour its best party vote performance in the Maori seats.
March 8, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Ikaroa-Rawhiti stays steadfast for Labour. New candidate Cushla Tangaere-Manuel holds the seat against her predecessor Meka Whaitiri, following her defection to Te Pati Maori.
While Te Pati Maori likewise surges, this seat gives Labour its best party vote performance in the Maori seats.
While Te Pati Maori likewise surges, this seat gives Labour its best party vote performance in the Maori seats.
Hauraki-Waikato sees the biggest upset. Labour totara Nanaia Mahuta loses her seat to rising star Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, a swing of 27% in her favour.
The party vote stays left, with Te Pati Maori seeing a surge at Labour's expense. The bloc vote swings right by just under 1%
The party vote stays left, with Te Pati Maori seeing a surge at Labour's expense. The bloc vote swings right by just under 1%
March 8, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Hauraki-Waikato sees the biggest upset. Labour totara Nanaia Mahuta loses her seat to rising star Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, a swing of 27% in her favour.
The party vote stays left, with Te Pati Maori seeing a surge at Labour's expense. The bloc vote swings right by just under 1%
The party vote stays left, with Te Pati Maori seeing a surge at Labour's expense. The bloc vote swings right by just under 1%
To Tamaki Makaurau. A cliffhanger just sees Takutai Tarsh Kemp beat back Labour's Peeni Henare, the most marginal Maori seat. Henare will return on the list, joined by Darleen Tana of the Greens, who will later be pushed out.
Another Te Pati Maori surge on party vote, but Labour holds a lead
Another Te Pati Maori surge on party vote, but Labour holds a lead
March 8, 2025 at 3:17 AM
To Tamaki Makaurau. A cliffhanger just sees Takutai Tarsh Kemp beat back Labour's Peeni Henare, the most marginal Maori seat. Henare will return on the list, joined by Darleen Tana of the Greens, who will later be pushed out.
Another Te Pati Maori surge on party vote, but Labour holds a lead
Another Te Pati Maori surge on party vote, but Labour holds a lead
Starting in Te Tai Tokerau. Te Pati Maori's Mariameno Kapa-Kingi scores an upset against Labour's Kelvin Davis, a small majority of 2%. Davis and Huhana Lyndon of the Greens enter as list MPs, with Davis leaving soon after.
Labour holds the party vote, but Te Pati Maori surges to a strong 2nd place
Labour holds the party vote, but Te Pati Maori surges to a strong 2nd place
March 8, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Starting in Te Tai Tokerau. Te Pati Maori's Mariameno Kapa-Kingi scores an upset against Labour's Kelvin Davis, a small majority of 2%. Davis and Huhana Lyndon of the Greens enter as list MPs, with Davis leaving soon after.
Labour holds the party vote, but Te Pati Maori surges to a strong 2nd place
Labour holds the party vote, but Te Pati Maori surges to a strong 2nd place
And third is Rongotai
The Greens' Julie Anne Genter gains another Wellington seat, closely seeing off new Labour challenge Fleur Fitzsimons. ACT's Nicole McKee returns as a list MP.
The Greens get a party vote win, but only just with Labour nipping at their heels. An easy left bloc win.
The Greens' Julie Anne Genter gains another Wellington seat, closely seeing off new Labour challenge Fleur Fitzsimons. ACT's Nicole McKee returns as a list MP.
The Greens get a party vote win, but only just with Labour nipping at their heels. An easy left bloc win.
February 28, 2025 at 9:34 PM
And third is Rongotai
The Greens' Julie Anne Genter gains another Wellington seat, closely seeing off new Labour challenge Fleur Fitzsimons. ACT's Nicole McKee returns as a list MP.
The Greens get a party vote win, but only just with Labour nipping at their heels. An easy left bloc win.
The Greens' Julie Anne Genter gains another Wellington seat, closely seeing off new Labour challenge Fleur Fitzsimons. ACT's Nicole McKee returns as a list MP.
The Greens get a party vote win, but only just with Labour nipping at their heels. An easy left bloc win.
Second is Wellington Central
Wellington councillor Tamatha Paul is able to win this seat off Labour with a 27% swing. Labour rising star, Ibrahim Omer is out of parliament.
The seat also delivers the Greens their best party vote performance of the election, easily securing a left bloc win.
Wellington councillor Tamatha Paul is able to win this seat off Labour with a 27% swing. Labour rising star, Ibrahim Omer is out of parliament.
The seat also delivers the Greens their best party vote performance of the election, easily securing a left bloc win.
February 28, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Second is Wellington Central
Wellington councillor Tamatha Paul is able to win this seat off Labour with a 27% swing. Labour rising star, Ibrahim Omer is out of parliament.
The seat also delivers the Greens their best party vote performance of the election, easily securing a left bloc win.
Wellington councillor Tamatha Paul is able to win this seat off Labour with a 27% swing. Labour rising star, Ibrahim Omer is out of parliament.
The seat also delivers the Greens their best party vote performance of the election, easily securing a left bloc win.
Auckland Central is first. Chloe Swarbrick holds the seat with a comfortable majority over National. Labour's candidate vote crumbles.
On the party vote, National wins the most, with the Greens just beating Labour for second place. Left bloc scores a win with 48.3%
On the party vote, National wins the most, with the Greens just beating Labour for second place. Left bloc scores a win with 48.3%
February 28, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Auckland Central is first. Chloe Swarbrick holds the seat with a comfortable majority over National. Labour's candidate vote crumbles.
On the party vote, National wins the most, with the Greens just beating Labour for second place. Left bloc scores a win with 48.3%
On the party vote, National wins the most, with the Greens just beating Labour for second place. Left bloc scores a win with 48.3%
And last is Te Atatu.
Despite a strong challenge from National's Angee Nicholas, Labour's Phil Twyford holds the West Auckland seat with a 0.4% majority. ACT's Simon Court will join him on the list.
National scores a party vote win over Labour, with a 4% lead, and the right bloc winning with 48.8%
Despite a strong challenge from National's Angee Nicholas, Labour's Phil Twyford holds the West Auckland seat with a 0.4% majority. ACT's Simon Court will join him on the list.
National scores a party vote win over Labour, with a 4% lead, and the right bloc winning with 48.8%
February 28, 2025 at 9:09 PM
And last is Te Atatu.
Despite a strong challenge from National's Angee Nicholas, Labour's Phil Twyford holds the West Auckland seat with a 0.4% majority. ACT's Simon Court will join him on the list.
National scores a party vote win over Labour, with a 4% lead, and the right bloc winning with 48.8%
Despite a strong challenge from National's Angee Nicholas, Labour's Phil Twyford holds the West Auckland seat with a 0.4% majority. ACT's Simon Court will join him on the list.
National scores a party vote win over Labour, with a 4% lead, and the right bloc winning with 48.8%
Second is Nelson.
First term Labour MP Rachel Boyack has a close call against National's Blair Cameron, holding against a smaller 5% swing to the Nats. ACT's Chris Baillie is gone.
National wins a small party vote lead of 3% over Labour, with the right bloc carrying the day: 48.9% to 44.5%
First term Labour MP Rachel Boyack has a close call against National's Blair Cameron, holding against a smaller 5% swing to the Nats. ACT's Chris Baillie is gone.
National wins a small party vote lead of 3% over Labour, with the right bloc carrying the day: 48.9% to 44.5%
February 28, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Second is Nelson.
First term Labour MP Rachel Boyack has a close call against National's Blair Cameron, holding against a smaller 5% swing to the Nats. ACT's Chris Baillie is gone.
National wins a small party vote lead of 3% over Labour, with the right bloc carrying the day: 48.9% to 44.5%
First term Labour MP Rachel Boyack has a close call against National's Blair Cameron, holding against a smaller 5% swing to the Nats. ACT's Chris Baillie is gone.
National wins a small party vote lead of 3% over Labour, with the right bloc carrying the day: 48.9% to 44.5%
First up is Mount Albert
Labour list MP Helen White narrowly holds the seat of Jacinda Ardern against a 26% swing to National's Melissa Lee. Lee and the Greens' Ricardo Menendez-March return as list MPs.
The party vote goes for National, though a strong Green result gives the left bloc a win
Labour list MP Helen White narrowly holds the seat of Jacinda Ardern against a 26% swing to National's Melissa Lee. Lee and the Greens' Ricardo Menendez-March return as list MPs.
The party vote goes for National, though a strong Green result gives the left bloc a win
February 28, 2025 at 9:09 PM
First up is Mount Albert
Labour list MP Helen White narrowly holds the seat of Jacinda Ardern against a 26% swing to National's Melissa Lee. Lee and the Greens' Ricardo Menendez-March return as list MPs.
The party vote goes for National, though a strong Green result gives the left bloc a win
Labour list MP Helen White narrowly holds the seat of Jacinda Ardern against a 26% swing to National's Melissa Lee. Lee and the Greens' Ricardo Menendez-March return as list MPs.
The party vote goes for National, though a strong Green result gives the left bloc a win