Matt Fletcher
@longevitymatt.bsky.social
Actuary - Longevity lead in Aon’s Demographic Horizons team. Current chair of IFoA Mortality Research Steering Committee
Flu picking up earlier than usual, and following a heavy flu season in Australia in our summer.
Flu admissions heading up... 📈
... while Covid admissions head back down. 📉
www.gov.uk/government/s...
... while Covid admissions head back down. 📉
www.gov.uk/government/s...
October 31, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Flu picking up earlier than usual, and following a heavy flu season in Australia in our summer.
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
An absolute goldmine of health and mortality data 📊
Well done to all involved in this.
Well done to all involved in this.
New CMO report out today on health trends and variation in England. My team delivered this using a RAP developed in R, which made a nice change from lots of people running around putting numbers into excel then pasting into powerpoint... Was not without challenges though! www.gov.uk/government/p...
Health trends and variation in England 2025: a Chief Medical Officer report
An overview of the health of England’s population, including trends over time and geographical variation.
www.gov.uk
September 25, 2025 at 11:06 AM
An absolute goldmine of health and mortality data 📊
Well done to all involved in this.
Well done to all involved in this.
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
The CMI has released its latest mortality monitor covering the period up to 25 July.
Death rates year-to-date are the lowest ever seen, though only slightly lower than 2019 and 2024.
In particularly, death rates have been notably lower than 2024 (the previous best year) for the last few weeks.
Death rates year-to-date are the lowest ever seen, though only slightly lower than 2019 and 2024.
In particularly, death rates have been notably lower than 2024 (the previous best year) for the last few weeks.
August 6, 2025 at 5:01 PM
The CMI has released its latest mortality monitor covering the period up to 25 July.
Death rates year-to-date are the lowest ever seen, though only slightly lower than 2019 and 2024.
In particularly, death rates have been notably lower than 2024 (the previous best year) for the last few weeks.
Death rates year-to-date are the lowest ever seen, though only slightly lower than 2019 and 2024.
In particularly, death rates have been notably lower than 2024 (the previous best year) for the last few weeks.
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
New report on recent trends in mortality in England out today fingertips.phe.org.uk/documents/re...
Recent mortality trends in England
fingertips.phe.org.uk
June 11, 2025 at 10:49 AM
New report on recent trends in mortality in England out today fingertips.phe.org.uk/documents/re...
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
I have heard a number of different terms being used to refer to weight loss drugs both in the press and by clients. I thought it would be useful to build a weight loss drugs dictionary. Are there any other terms that people commonly use or hear that should be added to the list?
April 9, 2025 at 4:21 PM
I have heard a number of different terms being used to refer to weight loss drugs both in the press and by clients. I thought it would be useful to build a weight loss drugs dictionary. Are there any other terms that people commonly use or hear that should be added to the list?
Excellent analysis of England & Wales mortality (as ever) by Jean - using data on deaths by occurrence rather than registration date suggests that death rates in both 2023 and 2024 were a bit better than it might seem
I think there is now enough data from England and Wales to venture a view on 2024 mortality by occurrence date
Overall, 2024 saw a (slight) deficit vs. pre-pandemic mortality rate trends (-1%) thanks to a mild winter 23/24 respiratory season and a mild start into the 24/25 one
1/
Overall, 2024 saw a (slight) deficit vs. pre-pandemic mortality rate trends (-1%) thanks to a mild winter 23/24 respiratory season and a mild start into the 24/25 one
1/
January 22, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Excellent analysis of England & Wales mortality (as ever) by Jean - using data on deaths by occurrence rather than registration date suggests that death rates in both 2023 and 2024 were a bit better than it might seem
Glass half full: 2024 saw the lowest death rates ever!
Glass half empty: mortality improvements between 2019 and 2024 were basically zero…
Glass half empty: mortality improvements between 2019 and 2024 were basically zero…
The CMI has released its quarterly analysis of death rates in England and Wales, covering Q4 2024.
Based on death registrations, death rates in 2024 were are a record low, slightly better than the previous best year on record, 2019.
Death rates were 4% lower than 2023, a significant improvement.
Based on death registrations, death rates in 2024 were are a record low, slightly better than the previous best year on record, 2019.
Death rates were 4% lower than 2023, a significant improvement.
January 15, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Glass half full: 2024 saw the lowest death rates ever!
Glass half empty: mortality improvements between 2019 and 2024 were basically zero…
Glass half empty: mortality improvements between 2019 and 2024 were basically zero…
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
January 15, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
12 hour waits in A&E in December were back at levels only previously seen in Dec '22 and Jan '23.
As the chart shows, it is extraordinary by historical standards to see so many people waiting this long for emergency care. And this is just counting the time after the decision to admit the patient.
As the chart shows, it is extraordinary by historical standards to see so many people waiting this long for emergency care. And this is just counting the time after the decision to admit the patient.
January 9, 2025 at 5:51 PM
12 hour waits in A&E in December were back at levels only previously seen in Dec '22 and Jan '23.
As the chart shows, it is extraordinary by historical standards to see so many people waiting this long for emergency care. And this is just counting the time after the decision to admit the patient.
As the chart shows, it is extraordinary by historical standards to see so many people waiting this long for emergency care. And this is just counting the time after the decision to admit the patient.
Slightly longer commute than normal today!
January 8, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Slightly longer commute than normal today!
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
Hospitalisations with flu are up sharply again this week, threatening a peak comparable to 2022/23 which contributed to huge pressure in hospitals.
December 21, 2024 at 12:16 PM
Hospitalisations with flu are up sharply again this week, threatening a peak comparable to 2022/23 which contributed to huge pressure in hospitals.
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
*sighs*
Percentage change should *always* be expressed on a log scale, because it’s multiplicative.
A doubling and a halving should be given equal space.
I did a whole thread on this at the time x.com/jburnmurdoch...
Percentage change should *always* be expressed on a log scale, because it’s multiplicative.
A doubling and a halving should be given equal space.
I did a whole thread on this at the time x.com/jburnmurdoch...
x.com
x.com
December 18, 2024 at 8:49 AM
*sighs*
Percentage change should *always* be expressed on a log scale, because it’s multiplicative.
A doubling and a halving should be given equal space.
I did a whole thread on this at the time x.com/jburnmurdoch...
Percentage change should *always* be expressed on a log scale, because it’s multiplicative.
A doubling and a halving should be given equal space.
I did a whole thread on this at the time x.com/jburnmurdoch...
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
Looks like we are in for an early flu season this year.
If you're eligible for a flu vaccine (or want to pay for one) then now might be a good time to get one. It'll help protect yourself, and might help relieve extreme pressure on the NHS over Xmas, and in doing so help protect others.
If you're eligible for a flu vaccine (or want to pay for one) then now might be a good time to get one. It'll help protect yourself, and might help relieve extreme pressure on the NHS over Xmas, and in doing so help protect others.
@UKHSA latest respiratory surveillance released.
1.flu positivity and hospitalisations rising fast - earlier than last year and exponential growth
2. RSV remains high but looks like it is close to peak - highest rates in children under 5.
3. COVID at low levels and stable.
1.flu positivity and hospitalisations rising fast - earlier than last year and exponential growth
2. RSV remains high but looks like it is close to peak - highest rates in children under 5.
3. COVID at low levels and stable.
December 5, 2024 at 2:52 PM
Looks like we are in for an early flu season this year.
If you're eligible for a flu vaccine (or want to pay for one) then now might be a good time to get one. It'll help protect yourself, and might help relieve extreme pressure on the NHS over Xmas, and in doing so help protect others.
If you're eligible for a flu vaccine (or want to pay for one) then now might be a good time to get one. It'll help protect yourself, and might help relieve extreme pressure on the NHS over Xmas, and in doing so help protect others.
Just got my work Secret Santa present - good work Santa!
December 5, 2024 at 4:59 PM
Just got my work Secret Santa present - good work Santa!
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
New figures out yesterday from OHID show that alcohol-specific deaths in England rise again in 2023 to their highest level on record.
That's a 42% increase in the number of people dying from alcohol-specific causes since 2019. Oof.
That's a 42% increase in the number of people dying from alcohol-specific causes since 2019. Oof.
December 4, 2024 at 9:30 AM
New figures out yesterday from OHID show that alcohol-specific deaths in England rise again in 2023 to their highest level on record.
That's a 42% increase in the number of people dying from alcohol-specific causes since 2019. Oof.
That's a 42% increase in the number of people dying from alcohol-specific causes since 2019. Oof.
Niche interest is the best interest! Good to see this analysis from CMI.
Niche interest, but CMI have released an analysis of the impact death certification reforms (implemented 9 Sep) have had on death registrations in 2024.
In summary, expect around 0.25% fewer death registrations due to small increase in registration delays.
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
In summary, expect around 0.25% fewer death registrations due to small increase in registration delays.
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
November 21, 2024 at 3:17 PM
Niche interest is the best interest! Good to see this analysis from CMI.
Welcome to Bluesky to my colleague @davidbarnard.bsky.social!
Another one to add to the list of actuaries @higheredactuary.bsky.social…
Another one to add to the list of actuaries @higheredactuary.bsky.social…
November 20, 2024 at 6:06 PM
Welcome to Bluesky to my colleague @davidbarnard.bsky.social!
Another one to add to the list of actuaries @higheredactuary.bsky.social…
Another one to add to the list of actuaries @higheredactuary.bsky.social…
Reposted by Matt Fletcher
November 17, 2024 at 2:18 PM