Just “death’s door” would do it?

Shared this with my Dad (who you might remember) - he enjoyed it very much!

This despite (probably) more deaths from the end of 2024 in the January 2025 figures than the equivalent for 2023/24?

Obviously the correct answer is “somewhere between the two”

We were here 5 years before and we’re still here 5 years after…

There’s something a bit odd going on with the “age 30” figures from ONS (table 5 in their spreadsheet) - for other ages the odds ratio plateaus after a certain length of time but for this age it keeps going up.

(Sort of) CMI-style projections from ONS!

The main difference is end-2022 vs start-2023 really isn’t it?

FWIW I’m inclined more towards the “half full” end - a return to pre-pandemic mortality levels feels like a pretty good outcome.

*sighs*

Percentage change should *always* be expressed on a log scale, because it’s multiplicative.

A doubling and a halving should be given equal space.

I did a whole thread on this at the time x.com/jburnmurdoch...

Hard agree - I implemented this for a bunch of CMI charts in reports produced by my committee.

The Oncological Ontology Project - I’m pretty sure it went on past this but can’t find it at the moment… thedailymailoncologicalontologyproject.wordpress.com

Chalk another one up to “Everything causes and / or prevents cancer and / or circulatory disease”.

Hmm…