John Roberts
@johnactuary.bsky.social
Worn out and retired actuary after 40 years in the profession.
Anyone still interested in mortality trends? The latest age standardised update from CMI show that 2025 continues to trend well below 2024, currently around 1.6% of a full year's mortality lower. So barring a sudden and very severe flu season, we should comfortably end the year with a new low.
November 13, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Anyone still interested in mortality trends? The latest age standardised update from CMI show that 2025 continues to trend well below 2024, currently around 1.6% of a full year's mortality lower. So barring a sudden and very severe flu season, we should comfortably end the year with a new low.
I guess the question is Steve, for how much longer is it appropriate to keep increasing the SP above both earnings and prices, given the huge cost and impact on generational inequity?
September 18, 2025 at 9:35 AM
I guess the question is Steve, for how much longer is it appropriate to keep increasing the SP above both earnings and prices, given the huge cost and impact on generational inequity?
Good morning from Bristol!
Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
August 10, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Good morning from Bristol!
Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
An interesting read for anyone inspired by the story of the Salt Path. Seems they were somewhat economical with the truth as to how they lost their house.
Having done the whole SWCP Mrs R read the book when it came out and was very sceptical about her story, apparently with some justification.
Having done the whole SWCP Mrs R read the book when it came out and was very sceptical about her story, apparently with some justification.
Penniless and homeless, Raynor and Moth Winn found fame with their story of their 630-mile walk to salvation. The Salt Path became a global bestseller and was adapted into a major film.
But we can reveal it wasn’t the whole truth.
@chloehadj.bsky.social
Read more:
But we can reveal it wasn’t the whole truth.
@chloehadj.bsky.social
Read more:
The real Salt Path: how the couple behind a bestseller le...
Penniless and homeless, the Winns found fame and fortune with the story of their 630-mile walk to salvation. We can reveal it was far from the truth
observer.co.uk
July 6, 2025 at 9:50 AM
An interesting read for anyone inspired by the story of the Salt Path. Seems they were somewhat economical with the truth as to how they lost their house.
Having done the whole SWCP Mrs R read the book when it came out and was very sceptical about her story, apparently with some justification.
Having done the whole SWCP Mrs R read the book when it came out and was very sceptical about her story, apparently with some justification.
Reposted by John Roberts
John, meet @ottoenglish.bsky.social , who’s post was perfectly timed in my feed.
May 19, 2025 at 7:29 PM
John, meet @ottoenglish.bsky.social , who’s post was perfectly timed in my feed.
Whenever the subject of the fishing industry comes up I do wonder how important it actually is to our economy, in relation to other sectors which would benefit from a closer relationship with Europe. Is it a case of the fishtail wagging the dog?
May 19, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Whenever the subject of the fishing industry comes up I do wonder how important it actually is to our economy, in relation to other sectors which would benefit from a closer relationship with Europe. Is it a case of the fishtail wagging the dog?
Blimey. Greek inflation must be steep….
2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
May 4, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Blimey. Greek inflation must be steep….
2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
I've only got three years to look at, but my perception that it's been a remarkably fine early Spring is certainly borne out by my solar generation - up a third on the average of 23/24.
April 30, 2025 at 8:25 PM
I've only got three years to look at, but my perception that it's been a remarkably fine early Spring is certainly borne out by my solar generation - up a third on the average of 23/24.
Reposted by John Roberts
Perhaps surprisingly, today’s CMI Mortality Monitor shows that 2025 death rates in England & Wales continue to be relatively low, similar to last year. Death rates set a new record low in 2024.
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
April 9, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Perhaps surprisingly, today’s CMI Mortality Monitor shows that 2025 death rates in England & Wales continue to be relatively low, similar to last year. Death rates set a new record low in 2024.
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
An interesting thread setting out how recent mortality trends are moving in opposite directions at differing age groups.
As highlighted in a recent BBC article, overall death rates in the UK were back on the pre-pandemic trend in 2024, hitting an all time low.
However, the overall death rate is dominated by what’s going on at older ages where most deaths happen. The news is much worse at working ages. 🧵 1/5
However, the overall death rate is dominated by what’s going on at older ages where most deaths happen. The news is much worse at working ages. 🧵 1/5
March 15, 2025 at 2:51 PM
An interesting thread setting out how recent mortality trends are moving in opposite directions at differing age groups.
Reposted by John Roberts
Death rates reached a record low in 2024, slightly lower than 2019, but it's not all good news.
As I said to the BBC "This is five years of basically flat mortality improvement, it's pretty poor by historical standards".
And working-age death rates are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.
As I said to the BBC "This is five years of basically flat mortality improvement, it's pretty poor by historical standards".
And working-age death rates are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.
March 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Death rates reached a record low in 2024, slightly lower than 2019, but it's not all good news.
As I said to the BBC "This is five years of basically flat mortality improvement, it's pretty poor by historical standards".
And working-age death rates are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.
As I said to the BBC "This is five years of basically flat mortality improvement, it's pretty poor by historical standards".
And working-age death rates are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Reposted by John Roberts
Today’s CMI mortality analysis again shows death rates that are towards the middle of the pre-pandemic 10-year range. It looks like registration delays are still a bit longer than normal, so still a bit of a backlog.
February 12, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Today’s CMI mortality analysis again shows death rates that are towards the middle of the pre-pandemic 10-year range. It looks like registration delays are still a bit longer than normal, so still a bit of a backlog.
Just back from 17 days in Vietnam and Cambodia and amongst the highlights were sunrise at Angkor Wat, a week cruising the Mekong, and Ha Long Bay.
February 8, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Just back from 17 days in Vietnam and Cambodia and amongst the highlights were sunrise at Angkor Wat, a week cruising the Mekong, and Ha Long Bay.
Reposted by John Roberts
Another significant fall in flu admissions this week but still higher than last year's peak.
www.gov.uk/government/s...
www.gov.uk/government/s...
January 23, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Another significant fall in flu admissions this week but still higher than last year's peak.
www.gov.uk/government/s...
www.gov.uk/government/s...
Mortality based on death registrations reached a new low in 2024, just beating 2019. There was a change in the registration process in Sept though that introduced a slight delay - without that it's likely registrations would have been slightly higher, but still broadly in line with 2019.
The CMI has released its quarterly analysis of death rates in England and Wales, covering Q4 2024.
Based on death registrations, death rates in 2024 were are a record low, slightly better than the previous best year on record, 2019.
Death rates were 4% lower than 2023, a significant improvement.
Based on death registrations, death rates in 2024 were are a record low, slightly better than the previous best year on record, 2019.
Death rates were 4% lower than 2023, a significant improvement.
January 15, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Mortality based on death registrations reached a new low in 2024, just beating 2019. There was a change in the registration process in Sept though that introduced a slight delay - without that it's likely registrations would have been slightly higher, but still broadly in line with 2019.
Deaths in line with the pre-pandemic trend once more. And a reminder that upward trend is due to an ageing population, particularly due to the baby boomer generation reaching old age.
Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
January 15, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Deaths in line with the pre-pandemic trend once more. And a reminder that upward trend is due to an ageing population, particularly due to the baby boomer generation reaching old age.
Reposted by John Roberts
More here on concerns about how the pensions / IHT changes could cause delays for grieving families, including in cases where no IHT is eventually due - so it's not just a 'problem for the rich': www.thesun.co.uk/money/322828...
Families face probate 'nightmare' with delays of up to a YEAR after IHT change
HOUSEHOLDS face delays of up to a year to get probate granted following major changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) rules by the government, experts have warned. Finance experts told The Sun that plans …
www.thesun.co.uk
January 8, 2025 at 10:31 AM
More here on concerns about how the pensions / IHT changes could cause delays for grieving families, including in cases where no IHT is eventually due - so it's not just a 'problem for the rich': www.thesun.co.uk/money/322828...
Finally I can explain why I only got a “pass” at Grade 8, much to my parents’ disappointment. It was all their fault for not owning a Steinway for me to practise on.
Every kid needs to learn on a Steinway grand.
Private school fees are rising in a facilities ‘arms race’ — timely piece from @financialtimes.com Laura Hughes on facilites/fees link over last 20 years in private schools, and the impact on affordability.
on.ft.com/4gAThHT
Private school fees are rising in a facilities ‘arms race’ — timely piece from @financialtimes.com Laura Hughes on facilites/fees link over last 20 years in private schools, and the impact on affordability.
on.ft.com/4gAThHT
December 30, 2024 at 8:48 AM
Finally I can explain why I only got a “pass” at Grade 8, much to my parents’ disappointment. It was all their fault for not owning a Steinway for me to practise on.
Good to see that the govt has not caved in to a vociferous campaign by a minority who claim not to have known about the change to SPA.
Given the very undeserving cases bizarrely put forward by them (remember the 3 properties woman?) it would have been an inappropriate use of taxpayers money.
Given the very undeserving cases bizarrely put forward by them (remember the 3 properties woman?) it would have been an inappropriate use of taxpayers money.
No compensation for WASPI women, Govt announces bit.ly/3VIlp3u these are women born in the 1950s whose state pension age was raised from 60 to 65 or 66 without they say proper notice and the Parliamentary Ombuds found the DWP guilty of maladministration.
Waspi: No payouts for women hit by state pension age rise
Campaigners say they were not properly informed of a pension age rise to bring them in line with men.
bit.ly
December 17, 2024 at 1:39 PM
Good to see that the govt has not caved in to a vociferous campaign by a minority who claim not to have known about the change to SPA.
Given the very undeserving cases bizarrely put forward by them (remember the 3 properties woman?) it would have been an inappropriate use of taxpayers money.
Given the very undeserving cases bizarrely put forward by them (remember the 3 properties woman?) it would have been an inappropriate use of taxpayers money.
Reposted by John Roberts
Hospitalisation with flu up again this week, crossing the medium threshold. More positively, the rate of increase was much slower than last week so hopefully we'll avoid any repeat of the 2022/23 peak.
Source: www.gov.uk/government/s...
Source: www.gov.uk/government/s...
December 12, 2024 at 2:48 PM
Hospitalisation with flu up again this week, crossing the medium threshold. More positively, the rate of increase was much slower than last week so hopefully we'll avoid any repeat of the 2022/23 peak.
Source: www.gov.uk/government/s...
Source: www.gov.uk/government/s...
Cumulative mortality for 2024 is now just about equal to the lowest ever year, 2019, and still on a positive trend with just a few weeks left this year.
Note that CMI estimates it would be around 0.25% higher but for the change in registration reporting implemented in Sep.
1/
Note that CMI estimates it would be around 0.25% higher but for the change in registration reporting implemented in Sep.
1/
CMI has released its weekly mortality monitor.
Death rates again at the lower end of the 2011-19 range.
Death rates year-to-date continue to track the best year on record (2019) closely. Ordinarily we expect death rates to fall over any 5-year period, so this isn’t quite as good news as it sounds.
Death rates again at the lower end of the 2011-19 range.
Death rates year-to-date continue to track the best year on record (2019) closely. Ordinarily we expect death rates to fall over any 5-year period, so this isn’t quite as good news as it sounds.
December 12, 2024 at 10:53 AM
Cumulative mortality for 2024 is now just about equal to the lowest ever year, 2019, and still on a positive trend with just a few weeks left this year.
Note that CMI estimates it would be around 0.25% higher but for the change in registration reporting implemented in Sep.
1/
Note that CMI estimates it would be around 0.25% higher but for the change in registration reporting implemented in Sep.
1/
Let’s be grateful William wasn’t accompanied by Catherine.
President elect Trump on Prince William:
“I had a great talk with the prince. He’s a good-looking guy. He looked really, very handsome last night. Some people look better in person? He looked great. He looked really nice, and I told him that.”
“I had a great talk with the prince. He’s a good-looking guy. He looked really, very handsome last night. Some people look better in person? He looked great. He looked really nice, and I told him that.”
December 11, 2024 at 4:12 PM
Let’s be grateful William wasn’t accompanied by Catherine.
Apart from the good news story here about US health, this is an excellent example of how statistics can (either unwittingly or, as we saw in the pandemic, deliberately) be used to mislead.
"So cancer rates are up 20% since 1990, huh?"
Adds red line:-
"Nope, think again. Down a third."
"So cancer rates are up 20% since 1990, huh?"
Adds red line:-
"Nope, think again. Down a third."
Americans are now one-third less likely to die from cancer at the same ages as Americans in 1990
December 9, 2024 at 5:08 PM
Apart from the good news story here about US health, this is an excellent example of how statistics can (either unwittingly or, as we saw in the pandemic, deliberately) be used to mislead.
"So cancer rates are up 20% since 1990, huh?"
Adds red line:-
"Nope, think again. Down a third."
"So cancer rates are up 20% since 1990, huh?"
Adds red line:-
"Nope, think again. Down a third."
Clickbait buzzword #94. "Tiny".
As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
December 9, 2024 at 2:02 PM
Clickbait buzzword #94. "Tiny".
As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
I remember ostrich farms were a common scam a few years ago. Problem is people just keep putting their head in the sand and ignoring this type of warning.
Non investment fails to perform. Before buying anything unregulated as an investment - does it produce an income? Is there a market to sell it? What are the costs of storing? Better still, ask a good independent financial adviser. Or save a lot of time and money and just say ‘no’
December 8, 2024 at 7:31 AM
I remember ostrich farms were a common scam a few years ago. Problem is people just keep putting their head in the sand and ignoring this type of warning.