Lars Clausen
banner
larsinthecloud.bsky.social
Lars Clausen
@larsinthecloud.bsky.social

History, culture, warfare, statebuilding, education - and happy trail hiker.

Lars Michael Clausen was a German sociologist and professor at the University of Kiel.

Source: Wikipedia
Political science 33%
Sociology 24%

Is it red?

Nemlig

Reposted by Lars Clausen

Green men can swim across the Narva river. The video surveillance is not effective against slow infiltration.

A high-risk area for external influence with bon-kinetic measures.
Russian Gerbera drone casually flies over the Lithuanian capital this morning.

Reposted by Lars Clausen

Russian Gerbera drone casually flies over the Lithuanian capital this morning.

Om numerous occasions since then, genocidal programs have reemerged from the tomb of history.
We’ve had a good dialogue about assessing scenarios, freedom of thought and the failures of modern societies to stop such terrible events.

Only one image resonates with this

Never again - is today, so the German government argues.
Brought my two kids to Auschwitz today, so they at least will bear witness for another generation, make smarter choices and act ethically informed.

Reposted by Lars Clausen

Fontanka: Russia's main naval parade cancelled in fear of attacks.
Fontanka: Main naval parade cancelled in fear of attacks
Preparations for the Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg were stopped earlier this week, allegedly for security concerns, Fontanka reports.
www.thebarentsobserver.com

Shows how communication with the UD President is conducted: by social media app.

Tillykke!

“This means peace in our time”

(Artifact description at the British Museum anno 2040: The American president mimicking Chamberlain in his own, 21st century style)

What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?

Society emerges not from individuals, but from the intricate dance of communication systems. Messages, not humans, weave the social fabric.

Oil markets is the structural coupling linking the regional conflicts and wars. It’s not the oilmprice per se, but secondary effects within the multiple domains of diplomacy and warfare, that is of real interest.

If the Israel-Iranian conflict leads to a prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz, we’re at the beginning of a conflict involving all major powers across the globe.
Why?
Oil prices and oil supply.

Activate: yes.
Support: yes
Sufficient support: by Nordics, Germany, France, Poland, - less from SW Europe.
Setting the scene for the inverse reaction with the next wave of migration.

Risk pricing on the supply side of - in effect - global oil prices.
🛢️📈 Not good for us…

Reposted by Lars Clausen

🛢️📈 Not good for us…

MS har cloud services hostet i EU. Grundkrav i statslige kontrakter.

Pointen er at hverken Linux eller hosting i EU *i sig selv* er beskyttelse mod nøglen: den ominøse licens og adgang til updates.

Microsoft Azure Linux …. Ved at adskille software fra hosting, kan man fortsætte med Microsoft og udnytte stærke migrationsværktøjer i Azure-cloud.

Here:
@anderspucknielsen.dk is right.
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
I disagree. The worse things go for Russia in Ukraine, the more risks they will take to turn things around. A limited attack on NATO could be a coercive move to force the Europeans to stop sending aid to Ukraine. (Not saying it would work, but that doesn't mean they won't try.)

@anderspucknielsen.dk has suggested this for some time now.
@anderspucknielsen.dk is right.
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
I disagree. The worse things go for Russia in Ukraine, the more risks they will take to turn things around. A limited attack on NATO could be a coercive move to force the Europeans to stop sending aid to Ukraine. (Not saying it would work, but that doesn't mean they won't try.)

Here’s a recent suggestion of little green men heading for Narva as a distinct scenario.

Building block for dual-purpose logistics between Murmansk, Russia and Svalbard, Norway.
Barentsburg port welcomes historic new visa-free voyage directly from Murmansk
This is the first time since Norway in 2011 introduced passport control on flights via the mainland that a dedicated passenger cruise sails directly from Murmansk. A propaganda show that will not make...
www.thebarentsobserver.com

The head of German Intelligence BND raises the issue of little green men across the Narva river into Estonia under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.

I regard Vilnius and Svalbard as the other two least implausible incursion vectors.
Russia could send "little green men" to test NATO's resolve, German intelligence boss warns
Russia is determined to test the resolve of the NATO alliance, including by extending its confrontation with the West beyond the borders of Ukraine, the Germany's foreign intelligence chief told the Table Media news organization.
www.reuters.com

@anderspucknielsen.dk is right.
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
I disagree. The worse things go for Russia in Ukraine, the more risks they will take to turn things around. A limited attack on NATO could be a coercive move to force the Europeans to stop sending aid to Ukraine. (Not saying it would work, but that doesn't mean they won't try.)
Unlike @dmytrokuleba.bsky.social, I don't think that Russia would risk a two-front war, as that would be in Ukraine's interest.

A necessary condition for an attack on a NATO country is a partial or full Russian victory over Ukraine.

www.russiamatters.org/blog/would-r...

@russiamatters.bsky.social

The German chancellor currently visits the White House. He might have the unenviable situation as first row viewer of the Trump-government working the press as the social media bonfire between the President and his (former) advisor unfolds.

Denmark is celebrating constitution day - the US: not so much today.

Flight-risk to Mars…