Lars Clausen
@larsinthecloud.bsky.social
History, culture, warfare, statebuilding, education - and happy trail hiker.
Reposted by Lars Clausen
Link to statement:
Statement by President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Tusk, Prime Minister Starmer, President von der Leyen and President Stubb on Peace for Ukraine ahead of President ...
We welcome President Trump\'s work to stop the killing in Ukraine, end the Russian Federation\'s war of aggression, and achieve just and lasting peace and security for Ukraine.\nWe are convinced that ...
ec.europa.eu
August 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Link to statement:
A high-risk area for external influence with bon-kinetic measures.
Russian Gerbera drone casually flies over the Lithuanian capital this morning.
July 28, 2025 at 2:13 PM
A high-risk area for external influence with bon-kinetic measures.
Reposted by Lars Clausen
Fontanka: Russia's main naval parade cancelled in fear of attacks.
Fontanka: Main naval parade cancelled in fear of attacks
Preparations for the Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg were stopped earlier this week, allegedly for security concerns, Fontanka reports.
www.thebarentsobserver.com
July 4, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Fontanka: Russia's main naval parade cancelled in fear of attacks.
“This means peace in our time”
(Artifact description at the British Museum anno 2040: The American president mimicking Chamberlain in his own, 21st century style)
(Artifact description at the British Museum anno 2040: The American president mimicking Chamberlain in his own, 21st century style)
June 17, 2025 at 4:50 PM
“This means peace in our time”
(Artifact description at the British Museum anno 2040: The American president mimicking Chamberlain in his own, 21st century style)
(Artifact description at the British Museum anno 2040: The American president mimicking Chamberlain in his own, 21st century style)
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?
Society emerges not from individuals, but from the intricate dance of communication systems. Messages, not humans, weave the social fabric.
Society emerges not from individuals, but from the intricate dance of communication systems. Messages, not humans, weave the social fabric.
June 17, 2025 at 3:06 PM
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?
Society emerges not from individuals, but from the intricate dance of communication systems. Messages, not humans, weave the social fabric.
Society emerges not from individuals, but from the intricate dance of communication systems. Messages, not humans, weave the social fabric.
If the Israel-Iranian conflict leads to a prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz, we’re at the beginning of a conflict involving all major powers across the globe.
Why?
Oil prices and oil supply.
Why?
Oil prices and oil supply.
June 13, 2025 at 8:25 AM
If the Israel-Iranian conflict leads to a prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz, we’re at the beginning of a conflict involving all major powers across the globe.
Why?
Oil prices and oil supply.
Why?
Oil prices and oil supply.
Risk pricing on the supply side of - in effect - global oil prices.
June 13, 2025 at 6:28 AM
Risk pricing on the supply side of - in effect - global oil prices.
The head of German Intelligence BND raises the issue of little green men across the Narva river into Estonia under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.
I regard Vilnius and Svalbard as the other two least implausible incursion vectors.
I regard Vilnius and Svalbard as the other two least implausible incursion vectors.
Russia could send "little green men" to test NATO's resolve, German intelligence boss warns
Russia is determined to test the resolve of the NATO alliance, including by extending its confrontation with the West beyond the borders of Ukraine, the Germany's foreign intelligence chief told the Table Media news organization.
www.reuters.com
June 10, 2025 at 7:35 AM
The head of German Intelligence BND raises the issue of little green men across the Narva river into Estonia under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.
I regard Vilnius and Svalbard as the other two least implausible incursion vectors.
I regard Vilnius and Svalbard as the other two least implausible incursion vectors.
@anderspucknielsen.dk is right.
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
I disagree. The worse things go for Russia in Ukraine, the more risks they will take to turn things around. A limited attack on NATO could be a coercive move to force the Europeans to stop sending aid to Ukraine. (Not saying it would work, but that doesn't mean they won't try.)
Unlike @dmytrokuleba.bsky.social, I don't think that Russia would risk a two-front war, as that would be in Ukraine's interest.
A necessary condition for an attack on a NATO country is a partial or full Russian victory over Ukraine.
www.russiamatters.org/blog/would-r...
@russiamatters.bsky.social
A necessary condition for an attack on a NATO country is a partial or full Russian victory over Ukraine.
www.russiamatters.org/blog/would-r...
@russiamatters.bsky.social
June 6, 2025 at 6:27 AM
@anderspucknielsen.dk is right.
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
Threat to Vilnius (drones+cyber), Narva (green men) and Svalbard (navy).
The German chancellor currently visits the White House. He might have the unenviable situation as first row viewer of the Trump-government working the press as the social media bonfire between the President and his (former) advisor unfolds.
June 5, 2025 at 8:43 PM
The German chancellor currently visits the White House. He might have the unenviable situation as first row viewer of the Trump-government working the press as the social media bonfire between the President and his (former) advisor unfolds.
As predicted; a further expense incurred by delays generated by checks and a loss of trust in containers and trucks.
Opens the door wide open for non-state (criminal) actors performing check-and-steal stops, similar to St. Petersburg in the late 90’ies.
Opens the door wide open for non-state (criminal) actors performing check-and-steal stops, similar to St. Petersburg in the late 90’ies.
🚘❌ Irkutsk, they are checking everyone, not letting anyone in, the roads are blocked, everyone is stopping trucks, they are afraid...
June 2, 2025 at 7:36 AM
As predicted; a further expense incurred by delays generated by checks and a loss of trust in containers and trucks.
Opens the door wide open for non-state (criminal) actors performing check-and-steal stops, similar to St. Petersburg in the late 90’ies.
Opens the door wide open for non-state (criminal) actors performing check-and-steal stops, similar to St. Petersburg in the late 90’ies.
Question is: how did they get drone footage transferred? Was public 4/5G network and RU sim-cards (or eSIM) available for use?
Ukraine has just carried out one of its largest attacks against the Russian Air Force using kamikaze drones, inflicting damage worth billions of euros. 1/2
June 1, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Question is: how did they get drone footage transferred? Was public 4/5G network and RU sim-cards (or eSIM) available for use?
Reposted by Lars Clausen
The unprecedented aspect of the attack is that the drones appear to have been launched from trucks inside Russia – and the drivers reportedly had no idea what they were transporting. Maskirovka is a game both sides can play. 2/2
June 1, 2025 at 12:28 PM
The unprecedented aspect of the attack is that the drones appear to have been launched from trucks inside Russia – and the drivers reportedly had no idea what they were transporting. Maskirovka is a game both sides can play. 2/2
Not ‘really’ the case anymore, as the Baltic front can’t be resupplied with air and sealift from nearby allied Finland and Sweden.
Vilnius (LT), Narva (EST) and Svalbard (NO) are the areas most exposed to contemporary Russian multidomain warfare.
Vilnius (LT), Narva (EST) and Svalbard (NO) are the areas most exposed to contemporary Russian multidomain warfare.
⚠️ The Suwałki Corridor is considered the most vulnerable place in the defense of NATO's eastern flank, - BILD
❗️In the event of a Russian attack on the Alliance countries from both sides, Russian artillery with a firing range of more than 30 km can take the entire region under fire control.
❗️In the event of a Russian attack on the Alliance countries from both sides, Russian artillery with a firing range of more than 30 km can take the entire region under fire control.
May 26, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Not ‘really’ the case anymore, as the Baltic front can’t be resupplied with air and sealift from nearby allied Finland and Sweden.
Vilnius (LT), Narva (EST) and Svalbard (NO) are the areas most exposed to contemporary Russian multidomain warfare.
Vilnius (LT), Narva (EST) and Svalbard (NO) are the areas most exposed to contemporary Russian multidomain warfare.
Not sticking to his own 90-day moratorium means that the current US government once again demonstrates their willingness to follow their own, designed measures of ‘days’.
Trump announces he is recommending a 50% tariff on all products from the European Union starting June 1, 2025
May 23, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Not sticking to his own 90-day moratorium means that the current US government once again demonstrates their willingness to follow their own, designed measures of ‘days’.
Economists have phrased the term: knock-on impacts.
Seems democratic instilled populations across the West have taken note.
Seems democratic instilled populations across the West have taken note.
Starting to wonder if we took one for global civic democracy. Electing Trump basically seems to have knee-capped every revanchist far-right candidate in the world. You're welcome, world.
May 19, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Economists have phrased the term: knock-on impacts.
Seems democratic instilled populations across the West have taken note.
Seems democratic instilled populations across the West have taken note.
Exactly.
Man kann übrigens weder ein prinzipielles Problem mit dem Staat Israel, noch mit dem Judentum haben, ja sogar selbst aus einer jüdischen Familie kommen und den unmenschlichen Irrsinn, den Netanjahu und das israelische Militär gerade in Gaza veranstalten, trotzdem grundfalsch finden.
Just sayin´.
Just sayin´.
May 18, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Exactly.
Circulating imagery from different angles seem to verify a ballistic hit on the Kerch bridge. Timing the attack to occur just after signing the mineral deal in an indication of reduced tensions between the US and Ukraine in the diplomatic realm.
Russian SAM air defense systems active in Kerch, in the east of Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea, near the illegally constructed Crimea Bridge. Seven explosions reported.
May 3, 2025 at 5:53 AM
Circulating imagery from different angles seem to verify a ballistic hit on the Kerch bridge. Timing the attack to occur just after signing the mineral deal in an indication of reduced tensions between the US and Ukraine in the diplomatic realm.
Reposted by Lars Clausen
The European theater mostly stopped fighting; the indo-pacific went on. Rethorically, this makes the last three months a succession war, decoupling the two theaters into two simultaneous wars.
What an affront to veterans, diplomats and historians.
What an affront to veterans, diplomats and historians.
May 2, 2025 at 11:30 AM
The European theater mostly stopped fighting; the indo-pacific went on. Rethorically, this makes the last three months a succession war, decoupling the two theaters into two simultaneous wars.
What an affront to veterans, diplomats and historians.
What an affront to veterans, diplomats and historians.
A precise description of the delayed effect in logistics of material products. Digital services might be ‘instant’ across the globe - manufacturing and business deals not so much.
The brick wall will hit hard.
The brick wall will hit hard.
A terrifying warning from the CEO of a consumer products company about what is about to hit the economy from Trump’s tariffs.
April 28, 2025 at 1:50 PM
A precise description of the delayed effect in logistics of material products. Digital services might be ‘instant’ across the globe - manufacturing and business deals not so much.
The brick wall will hit hard.
The brick wall will hit hard.
Reposted by Lars Clausen
Massive power outage in Spain/Portugal at 10:34 UTC (12:34pm local) leading to plummeting levels of internet traffic flowing to the countries. #apagao #apagonenespana #apagon
April 28, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Massive power outage in Spain/Portugal at 10:34 UTC (12:34pm local) leading to plummeting levels of internet traffic flowing to the countries. #apagao #apagonenespana #apagon
First and foremost messaging towards what it calls the ‘Asian brethren’ such as Vietnam, Japan or South Korea. To a lesser, but still ominous extend also a warning shot (or signal of support) towards Bruxelles negotiations with Washington.
Morning Bluesky.
Today the US-China trade war has intensified.
China has warned it will hit back at countries that make deals with the US that hurt Beijing's interests.
"Appeasement cannot bring peace, and compromise cannot earn one respect," a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said.
Today the US-China trade war has intensified.
China has warned it will hit back at countries that make deals with the US that hurt Beijing's interests.
"Appeasement cannot bring peace, and compromise cannot earn one respect," a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said.
April 21, 2025 at 10:09 AM
First and foremost messaging towards what it calls the ‘Asian brethren’ such as Vietnam, Japan or South Korea. To a lesser, but still ominous extend also a warning shot (or signal of support) towards Bruxelles negotiations with Washington.
Reposted by Lars Clausen
As announced today 🇩🇰Denmark will set up a new HQ signals batallion for NATO high-level communication in North- & Northwestern Europe.
The 🇩🇰-based HQ & support company will be fully operational by 2029. 🇳🇴🇸🇪🇫🇮are expected to contribute to the HQ and its subordinate units.
The 🇩🇰-based HQ & support company will be fully operational by 2029. 🇳🇴🇸🇪🇫🇮are expected to contribute to the HQ and its subordinate units.
April 21, 2025 at 8:59 AM
As announced today 🇩🇰Denmark will set up a new HQ signals batallion for NATO high-level communication in North- & Northwestern Europe.
The 🇩🇰-based HQ & support company will be fully operational by 2029. 🇳🇴🇸🇪🇫🇮are expected to contribute to the HQ and its subordinate units.
The 🇩🇰-based HQ & support company will be fully operational by 2029. 🇳🇴🇸🇪🇫🇮are expected to contribute to the HQ and its subordinate units.
Pope Francis has died, hours after meeting JD Vance in the Vatican.
I expect it to be 15 minutes, before consiracy mythologies of American involvement to emerge on my timelines.
I expect it to be 15 minutes, before consiracy mythologies of American involvement to emerge on my timelines.
April 21, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Pope Francis has died, hours after meeting JD Vance in the Vatican.
I expect it to be 15 minutes, before consiracy mythologies of American involvement to emerge on my timelines.
I expect it to be 15 minutes, before consiracy mythologies of American involvement to emerge on my timelines.
Dispair - though it started as the great whatever.
Historians will propose in due course a name for this current phase we are witnessing in the United States. My early submission: The Great Dismantling.
April 20, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Dispair - though it started as the great whatever.