Matthew Shugart
@laderafrutal.bsky.social
Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science, UC Davis. Researching electoral systems, parties, legislatures. 🍑🍊🌻 Orchardist. 🇺🇸 🇮🇱🇺🇦🇹🇼🇰🇷 Zionist and small-d democrat. Blog/links to pubs: fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
John K. and I summarized political science on the fragmentation myth here: manhattan.institute/article/refo...
MSS, ML, and I reflected on the presidentialism issue here: protectdemocracy.org/work/toward-...
MSS, ML, and I reflected on the presidentialism issue here: protectdemocracy.org/work/toward-...
November 7, 2025 at 8:07 PM
John K. and I summarized political science on the fragmentation myth here: manhattan.institute/article/refo...
MSS, ML, and I reflected on the presidentialism issue here: protectdemocracy.org/work/toward-...
MSS, ML, and I reflected on the presidentialism issue here: protectdemocracy.org/work/toward-...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
With PR in the discourse again, we’re likely to hear things about incompatibility with presidentialism and a tendency to produce fragmentation.
These views tend to come from a certain corner of American Politics. I reflected on that dynamic last month: open.substack.com/pub/jacksant...
1/2
These views tend to come from a certain corner of American Politics. I reflected on that dynamic last month: open.substack.com/pub/jacksant...
1/2
November 7, 2025 at 8:05 PM
With PR in the discourse again, we’re likely to hear things about incompatibility with presidentialism and a tendency to produce fragmentation.
These views tend to come from a certain corner of American Politics. I reflected on that dynamic last month: open.substack.com/pub/jacksant...
1/2
These views tend to come from a certain corner of American Politics. I reflected on that dynamic last month: open.substack.com/pub/jacksant...
1/2
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
NEW: How did Tuesday's elections affect how you vote, and the rules of democracy?
You know about Prop 50, surely.
But there's a lot more: Here is our round-up at Bolts!
You know about Prop 50, surely.
But there's a lot more: Here is our round-up at Bolts!
Five Ways Tuesday’s Results Will Affect Voting Rules and Democracy - Bolts
From felony disenfranchisement and mail-voting to mid-decade gerrymanders, Tuesday delivered verdicts on election law across these five states.
boltsmag.org
November 6, 2025 at 9:46 PM
NEW: How did Tuesday's elections affect how you vote, and the rules of democracy?
You know about Prop 50, surely.
But there's a lot more: Here is our round-up at Bolts!
You know about Prop 50, surely.
But there's a lot more: Here is our round-up at Bolts!
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
If it's true that RealClearPolitics removed their polling average of the VA Attorney General race because it was wrong, that should really be the nail in the coffin for them. It's GOP polling propaganda that hasn't been rigorous or transparent in a long time (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-pollin...)
November 6, 2025 at 3:50 PM
If it's true that RealClearPolitics removed their polling average of the VA Attorney General race because it was wrong, that should really be the nail in the coffin for them. It's GOP polling propaganda that hasn't been rigorous or transparent in a long time (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-pollin...)
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Why is there any doubt about this
PAHO meets this week to decide if we’ve lost measles elimination status. I warned in this interview that we’re marching toward that threshold—and getting this close signals widening vaccination gaps and eroding public health capacity.
🔗 www.scientificamerican.com/article/meas...
#Vaccines #Measles
🔗 www.scientificamerican.com/article/meas...
#Vaccines #Measles
North America May Soon No Longer Be Officially Measles-Free, Experts Say
A meeting of the Pan American Health Organization this week will address the resurgence of measles in the Americas
www.scientificamerican.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Why is there any doubt about this
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Research finding!
“Prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.”
“Prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.”
Off With Their Heads
prosecuting your elected leader is good for the soul
hegemon.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Research finding!
“Prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.”
“Prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.”
Really good.
Also, ouch!
“Cheney’s work put him at the forefront of the quantitative wave in political science that transformed the field from a sleepy and largely useless compilation of descriptive facts … into a research enterprise that occasionally has something useful to say about the world.”
Also, ouch!
“Cheney’s work put him at the forefront of the quantitative wave in political science that transformed the field from a sleepy and largely useless compilation of descriptive facts … into a research enterprise that occasionally has something useful to say about the world.”
This is easily the most interesting of all the Cheney obits I read today
Dick Cheney, ABD
Remembering the greatest alt-ac of them all
musgrave.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Really good.
Also, ouch!
“Cheney’s work put him at the forefront of the quantitative wave in political science that transformed the field from a sleepy and largely useless compilation of descriptive facts … into a research enterprise that occasionally has something useful to say about the world.”
Also, ouch!
“Cheney’s work put him at the forefront of the quantitative wave in political science that transformed the field from a sleepy and largely useless compilation of descriptive facts … into a research enterprise that occasionally has something useful to say about the world.”
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
I see Dick Cheney's death has been pushed lower on the NYT page by a new top story about a GOP president deciding which half-assed plan to use for regime change in Venezuela and what a nice tribute to him really. Justifying it based on a drug that Venezuela doesn't traffic in is a great touch.
November 4, 2025 at 7:26 PM
I see Dick Cheney's death has been pushed lower on the NYT page by a new top story about a GOP president deciding which half-assed plan to use for regime change in Venezuela and what a nice tribute to him really. Justifying it based on a drug that Venezuela doesn't traffic in is a great touch.
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Out now! I look at the size of municipal and local assemblies in EU/OECD countries and find that in addition to an effect of municipality population, more autonomous local councils are larger www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Patterns of regional and local council size
There is a growing literature that examines how subnational assembly size affects policy outcomes like turnout and women's representation, but also in…
www.sciencedirect.com
November 3, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Out now! I look at the size of municipal and local assemblies in EU/OECD countries and find that in addition to an effect of municipality population, more autonomous local councils are larger www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
In my paper the other day in @liberalcurrents.com I spent some time on our very weird candidate selection & non-membership based political parties because I don't think Americans know just how strange it is:
www.liberalcurrents.com/the-american...
www.liberalcurrents.com/the-american...
November 2, 2025 at 2:32 AM
In my paper the other day in @liberalcurrents.com I spent some time on our very weird candidate selection & non-membership based political parties because I don't think Americans know just how strange it is:
www.liberalcurrents.com/the-american...
www.liberalcurrents.com/the-american...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Hey #lawsky, with H5N1 incoming there's going to be a *ton* of money in the #PersonalInjury space. Worth reading up on how we got here, #failuretowarn, and why the COIs around major medical errors made wrt COVID mean reasonable steps to mitigate infectious aerosol hazards are rejected.
Also:
Also:
October 31, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Hey #lawsky, with H5N1 incoming there's going to be a *ton* of money in the #PersonalInjury space. Worth reading up on how we got here, #failuretowarn, and why the COIs around major medical errors made wrt COVID mean reasonable steps to mitigate infectious aerosol hazards are rejected.
Also:
Also:
Excellent overview about how the structural problem of presidentialization, plus non-hierarchical parties, renders it insufficient to implore Democrats (or Republicans for that matter) to just develop better messaging and improve their reputation.
More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions.
Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
October 29, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Excellent overview about how the structural problem of presidentialization, plus non-hierarchical parties, renders it insufficient to implore Democrats (or Republicans for that matter) to just develop better messaging and improve their reputation.
Anyone out there happen to know details of the electoral system of #Senegal after 2012? Datasets I am working with disagree on some features and Wikipedia isn’t clear.
October 28, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Anyone out there happen to know details of the electoral system of #Senegal after 2012? Datasets I am working with disagree on some features and Wikipedia isn’t clear.
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
The more I think about all of this, the more I become convinced that democratic reform is the answer, not organizing and messaging.
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-i...
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-i...
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway
outsidethebeltway.com
October 27, 2025 at 1:55 PM
The more I think about all of this, the more I become convinced that democratic reform is the answer, not organizing and messaging.
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-i...
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-i...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Have you noticed plane turbulence is getting worse?
It’s not your imagination. It’s climate change.
It’s not your imagination. It’s climate change.
Our new study finds that the upper atmosphere is becoming more sheared and less stratified because of climate change. Both these changes are making the air less stable and more conducive to turbulence.
Published in the November issue of Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
doi.org/10.1175/JAS-...
Published in the November issue of Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
doi.org/10.1175/JAS-...
October 26, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Have you noticed plane turbulence is getting worse?
It’s not your imagination. It’s climate change.
It’s not your imagination. It’s climate change.
Wales is going to use a new closed-list PR system next May, replacing MMP. Already at least one Member of Senedd wants to change to STV. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/10/24/w...
Wales: A Labour member introduces bill for STV
Just as Wales is approaching an election that will be its first under a new closed-list proportional representation system, a Labour member of the Senedd is proposing that Wales adopt the single tr…
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Wales is going to use a new closed-list PR system next May, replacing MMP. Already at least one Member of Senedd wants to change to STV. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/10/24/w...
Why I’m voting yes on Prop 50 in California. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/10/24/y...
Yes on California Prop. 50
California voters have before them now a special election on a statewide measure, Proposition 50, that would put in place temporary districts for US House elections of 2026, 2028, and 2030. The new…
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Why I’m voting yes on Prop 50 in California. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/10/24/y...
I’ve devoted much of my career to comparative presidentialism. I’ll know I’ve succeeded only if journalists stop saying things like I just heard on France24: “the French presidency may be the strongest in the world.”
If so, then why can’t he keep a cabinet in office?
If so, then why can’t he keep a cabinet in office?
October 6, 2025 at 1:48 PM
I’ve devoted much of my career to comparative presidentialism. I’ll know I’ve succeeded only if journalists stop saying things like I just heard on France24: “the French presidency may be the strongest in the world.”
If so, then why can’t he keep a cabinet in office?
If so, then why can’t he keep a cabinet in office?
So the Doha op might have failed DUE TO OVERLY PRECISE TARGETING.
(Sorry for shouting but it’s important.)
(Sorry for shouting but it’s important.)
September 11, 2025 at 7:56 PM
So the Doha op might have failed DUE TO OVERLY PRECISE TARGETING.
(Sorry for shouting but it’s important.)
(Sorry for shouting but it’s important.)
This is a very important paper. The thread offers a nice overview.
What constitutional forms of democracy exist in the world today and what’s their rationale? A forthcoming paper of mine in Global Constitutionalism @globcon.bsky.social gives some new answers to these questions. Short 🧵https://shorturl.at/iWAeg
(PDF) Taking democracy seriously A theory and global typology of democratic forms of government
PDF | Although the distinction between presidential, parliamentary and hybrid forms of government is fundamental to the study of democratic... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on Resear...
shorturl.at
September 9, 2025 at 3:50 PM
This is a very important paper. The thread offers a nice overview.
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Election nerds, can you help me?
Here are data from 1000s of local elections in Austria, held under list-PR with D'Hondt allocation and no fixed electoral threshold (whoever wins 1 seat is in). The graph shows the vote share of parties centered around the threshold ...
Here are data from 1000s of local elections in Austria, held under list-PR with D'Hondt allocation and no fixed electoral threshold (whoever wins 1 seat is in). The graph shows the vote share of parties centered around the threshold ...
September 5, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Election nerds, can you help me?
Here are data from 1000s of local elections in Austria, held under list-PR with D'Hondt allocation and no fixed electoral threshold (whoever wins 1 seat is in). The graph shows the vote share of parties centered around the threshold ...
Here are data from 1000s of local elections in Austria, held under list-PR with D'Hondt allocation and no fixed electoral threshold (whoever wins 1 seat is in). The graph shows the vote share of parties centered around the threshold ...
UC Davis is recruiting in comparative politics!
"We are especially interested in candidates working on regional and/or emerging-market powers, though the successful candidate may work in any area of Comparative Politics."
Assistant level, tenure track.
recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07299
"We are especially interested in candidates working on regional and/or emerging-market powers, though the successful candidate may work in any area of Comparative Politics."
Assistant level, tenure track.
recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07299
Department of Political Science - Comparative Politics
University of California, Davis is hiring. Apply now!
recruit.ucdavis.edu
August 29, 2025 at 5:52 PM
UC Davis is recruiting in comparative politics!
"We are especially interested in candidates working on regional and/or emerging-market powers, though the successful candidate may work in any area of Comparative Politics."
Assistant level, tenure track.
recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07299
"We are especially interested in candidates working on regional and/or emerging-market powers, though the successful candidate may work in any area of Comparative Politics."
Assistant level, tenure track.
recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07299
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
I’m playing with ways to visualize state leg. size relative to population. Start with ratio. Tried normalization and robust scaling.
Here, we have the factor by which a state’s value differs from the median. Left: houses; right: senates.
Here, we have the factor by which a state’s value differs from the median. Left: houses; right: senates.
August 25, 2025 at 9:56 PM
I’m playing with ways to visualize state leg. size relative to population. Start with ratio. Tried normalization and robust scaling.
Here, we have the factor by which a state’s value differs from the median. Left: houses; right: senates.
Here, we have the factor by which a state’s value differs from the median. Left: houses; right: senates.
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
🧵 I have a new paper online @apsa-preprints.bsky.social where I try to answer a deceptively simple question:
𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 '𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵' 𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵-𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘵-𝘵𝘩𝘦-𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘺𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘴?
Summary below 👇
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...
𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 '𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵' 𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵-𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘵-𝘵𝘩𝘦-𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘺𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘴?
Summary below 👇
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...
Where is the Post in First-Past-the-Post (and Beyond)? A Logical Model of the Effective District-Wide Threshold
I present a new model of the effective district-wide threshold: the vote share at which any given party has a 50/50 chance of winning its first seat in a district. To derive my model, I rely only on s...
preprints.apsanet.org
August 25, 2025 at 3:49 PM
🧵 I have a new paper online @apsa-preprints.bsky.social where I try to answer a deceptively simple question:
𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 '𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵' 𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵-𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘵-𝘵𝘩𝘦-𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘺𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘴?
Summary below 👇
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...
𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 '𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵' 𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵-𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘵-𝘵𝘩𝘦-𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘺𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘴?
Summary below 👇
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...
Well, the campaign is underway. The bills to put this on the ballot passed the legislature only yesterday. But the opposition hasn’t been sitting around waiting.
(My posting this is not an endorsement of any position.)
(My posting this is not an endorsement of any position.)
August 22, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Well, the campaign is underway. The bills to put this on the ballot passed the legislature only yesterday. But the opposition hasn’t been sitting around waiting.
(My posting this is not an endorsement of any position.)
(My posting this is not an endorsement of any position.)