Julian Gerez
@juliangerez.com
Assistant Professor of Criminology, Law and Society and Political Science (by courtesy) at the University of California, Irvine. I study the political economy of security, crime, and law enforcement.
Reposted by Julian Gerez
Next Monday!
@ucisocialecology.bsky.social
@ucisocialecology.bsky.social
November 3, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Next Monday!
@ucisocialecology.bsky.social
@ucisocialecology.bsky.social
Reposted by Julian Gerez
Nearly half of UC undergraduates and graduate students experience food insecurity. Those numbers will increase with the federal government's refusal to fund SNAP (CalFresh). If you can afford it, please consider contributing to the UCI Basic Needs Center, which feeds many of our students.
Fill Our Pantries: Nourish Student Success
Help University of California, Irvine raise $15,000 for the project: Fill Our Pantries: Nourish Student Success. Your gift will make a difference!
zotfunder.give.uci.edu
October 30, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Nearly half of UC undergraduates and graduate students experience food insecurity. Those numbers will increase with the federal government's refusal to fund SNAP (CalFresh). If you can afford it, please consider contributing to the UCI Basic Needs Center, which feeds many of our students.
Reposted by Julian Gerez
Re-election means voters can hold elected officials accountable, but can it be effective where criminal groups shape local politics? In my new article in @bjpols.bsky.social, I show that in high-crime areas of Mexico, re-election did not boost accountability, but increased collusion instead.
October 30, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Re-election means voters can hold elected officials accountable, but can it be effective where criminal groups shape local politics? In my new article in @bjpols.bsky.social, I show that in high-crime areas of Mexico, re-election did not boost accountability, but increased collusion instead.
This is a great opportunity at an amazing university in one of the most beautiful cities in the world!
📢 Exciting news from EAFIT University in Medellín 🇨🇴!
The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School.
👇 More details in the next posts.
The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School.
👇 More details in the next posts.
October 25, 2025 at 2:41 PM
This is a great opportunity at an amazing university in one of the most beautiful cities in the world!
Reposted by Julian Gerez
📢 Exciting news from EAFIT University in Medellín 🇨🇴!
The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School.
👇 More details in the next posts.
The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School.
👇 More details in the next posts.
October 25, 2025 at 2:16 PM
📢 Exciting news from EAFIT University in Medellín 🇨🇴!
The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School.
👇 More details in the next posts.
The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School.
👇 More details in the next posts.
Fun exercise for students in a causal inference class: draw a DAG for this debate.
Look. It would be great if there was one simple trick for winning elections. But 'just be more moderate' isn't it.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion
After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Fun exercise for students in a causal inference class: draw a DAG for this debate.
I joined @cnn.com International last night to discuss the recent U.S. military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling vessels and their implications for counternarcotics cooperation, U.S.-Colombia relations, and regional geopolitics more broadly.
(1/2)
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October 22, 2025 at 5:05 PM
I joined @cnn.com International last night to discuss the recent U.S. military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling vessels and their implications for counternarcotics cooperation, U.S.-Colombia relations, and regional geopolitics more broadly.
(1/2)
(1/2)
Reposted by Julian Gerez
I wrote about deadly US strikes in the Caribbean. A lot has been said about the illegality of the strikes, but impunity (and not legality) is the whole point.
Two airstrikes in recent weeks have been aimed at ‘narcoterrorists’, according to the White House. They’ve been deadly, dangerous and likely ineffective.
US strikes on Venezuelan ‘drug boats’ have killed 14 people. What is Trump trying to do?
theconversation.com
September 20, 2025 at 7:19 AM
I wrote about deadly US strikes in the Caribbean. A lot has been said about the illegality of the strikes, but impunity (and not legality) is the whole point.
Reposted by Julian Gerez
🚨 New publication alert! 🚨
When do armed groups capture democratic elections, and when do they fail to do so?
In a new study, @andresuribe.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) investigates how local party competition can shape the effectiveness of coercion during Colombia’s 2002 Senate elections.
When do armed groups capture democratic elections, and when do they fail to do so?
In a new study, @andresuribe.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) investigates how local party competition can shape the effectiveness of coercion during Colombia’s 2002 Senate elections.
September 16, 2025 at 11:34 AM
🚨 New publication alert! 🚨
When do armed groups capture democratic elections, and when do they fail to do so?
In a new study, @andresuribe.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) investigates how local party competition can shape the effectiveness of coercion during Colombia’s 2002 Senate elections.
When do armed groups capture democratic elections, and when do they fail to do so?
In a new study, @andresuribe.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) investigates how local party competition can shape the effectiveness of coercion during Colombia’s 2002 Senate elections.
I'm working on a difference-in-RDs project but struggling with how to properly handle bandwidth selection across treatment periods. It's not obvious to me how to choose a bandwidth for multiple separate RD estimates at once. Would love pointers to resources or best practices! Thanks in advance 🙏🏼
August 5, 2025 at 2:30 PM
I'm working on a difference-in-RDs project but struggling with how to properly handle bandwidth selection across treatment periods. It's not obvious to me how to choose a bandwidth for multiple separate RD estimates at once. Would love pointers to resources or best practices! Thanks in advance 🙏🏼
By the way, this also applies to all experiments and any observational studies that use comparisons. Report control/baseline information to contextualize differences!
Great explainer! I think visualization plays a role too—both FOX/WSJ present party differences centered at zero, without the levels for each party. Here's a quick (thrown-together) example of how showing the underlying values—even when excluding the other responses—paints a very different picture.
July 28, 2025 at 9:53 PM
By the way, this also applies to all experiments and any observational studies that use comparisons. Report control/baseline information to contextualize differences!
It's hard to describe how sad and embarrassed I feel by this.
I am deeply disappointed by reports of Columbia University’s outrageous and embarrassing $200 million capitulation to the Trump Administration’s repugnant extortion campaign.
July 24, 2025 at 4:02 AM
It's hard to describe how sad and embarrassed I feel by this.
Reposted by Julian Gerez
A timely and trenchant piece by Suresh Naidu. When future generations sift through the wreckage of our era, they’ll find it strewn with the institutional and personal failures of leaders both great and small.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...
Opinion | Columbia’s Administrators Are Fooling Themselves
www.nytimes.com
July 24, 2025 at 3:16 AM
A timely and trenchant piece by Suresh Naidu. When future generations sift through the wreckage of our era, they’ll find it strewn with the institutional and personal failures of leaders both great and small.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...
I defended my dissertation today! A heartfelt thanks to my committee—@vickymurillo.bsky.social, John Marshall, Sarah Daly, @emoncada.bsky.social, and @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social—for their insight, generosity, and steady support, as well as the family and friends who've backed me every step of the way.
May 7, 2025 at 10:54 PM
I defended my dissertation today! A heartfelt thanks to my committee—@vickymurillo.bsky.social, John Marshall, Sarah Daly, @emoncada.bsky.social, and @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social—for their insight, generosity, and steady support, as well as the family and friends who've backed me every step of the way.
As someone who worked at a government contractor before starting graduate school, I'm thinking about my former colleagues in light of the news about USAID.
www.reuters.com/world/us/mus...
www.reuters.com/world/us/mus...
Musk to give update on reform effort amid questions about his power
Billionaire Elon Musk, who is heading U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to shrink the federal government, will give an update on the effort early Monday amid reports he has been given access to a vital payments system at the Treasury Department.
www.reuters.com
February 3, 2025 at 1:36 PM
As someone who worked at a government contractor before starting graduate school, I'm thinking about my former colleagues in light of the news about USAID.
www.reuters.com/world/us/mus...
www.reuters.com/world/us/mus...
To the point of a "Trump effect" on seizures, as tempting as it may be to link seizures to political events, these are influenced by many factors beyond who holds the U.S. presidency (or Mexican presidency, for that matter). I created this figure to provide some evidence for this claim.
February 1, 2025 at 4:44 PM
To the point of a "Trump effect" on seizures, as tempting as it may be to link seizures to political events, these are influenced by many factors beyond who holds the U.S. presidency (or Mexican presidency, for that matter). I created this figure to provide some evidence for this claim.
Based on some of the online reactions to the tariff situation between Colombia and the United States, it's frustrating how Colombia is still reduced in popular consciousness to a poor, 'third world' country with no autonomy, valued globally only for its exports of legal and illegal stimulants.
January 27, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Based on some of the online reactions to the tariff situation between Colombia and the United States, it's frustrating how Colombia is still reduced in popular consciousness to a poor, 'third world' country with no autonomy, valued globally only for its exports of legal and illegal stimulants.
Medellín is an incredible city! Despite being born in Bogotá and having family from la costa (Caribbean coast), it's my favorite city in Colombia :)
"Between 2016 and 2019, the level of PM2.5 [air pollution] fell significantly, and in turn the city’s morbidity rate from acute respiratory infections decreased from 159.8 to 95.3 per 1,000 people."
In Medellín, a city of 2.5 million people in Colombia, the Green Corridors urban restoration project has planted 880,000 trees and 2.5 million plants, reducing pollution and bringing temperatures down by 2 degrees C. #ShareGoodNewsToo reasonstobecheerful.world/green-corrid...
November 26, 2024 at 2:18 PM
Medellín is an incredible city! Despite being born in Bogotá and having family from la costa (Caribbean coast), it's my favorite city in Colombia :)
Reposted by Julian Gerez
Interesting in the amazing work of scholars who study organized crime and politics? Check out this growing starter pack of scholars and policy-makers.
DM me or @juliangerez.com to be added to the list! We're looking to expand!
go.bsky.app/EibGsKS
DM me or @juliangerez.com to be added to the list! We're looking to expand!
go.bsky.app/EibGsKS
November 23, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Interesting in the amazing work of scholars who study organized crime and politics? Check out this growing starter pack of scholars and policy-makers.
DM me or @juliangerez.com to be added to the list! We're looking to expand!
go.bsky.app/EibGsKS
DM me or @juliangerez.com to be added to the list! We're looking to expand!
go.bsky.app/EibGsKS
Reposted by Julian Gerez
Is your Bluesky feed missing in conflict analysis? I made a starter pack of peace and conflict scholars to follow here. DM me if you want to be included.
#Conflictsky
go.bsky.app/7o8tZt2
#Conflictsky
go.bsky.app/7o8tZt2
September 12, 2024 at 8:20 PM
Is your Bluesky feed missing in conflict analysis? I made a starter pack of peace and conflict scholars to follow here. DM me if you want to be included.
#Conflictsky
go.bsky.app/7o8tZt2
#Conflictsky
go.bsky.app/7o8tZt2
👋 I'm on the academic job market! I'm a political scientist who studies the political economy of security and law enforcement, examining criminal and political violence and the state enforcement strategies that respond to these threats, with a regional focus on Latin America.
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September 3, 2024 at 3:00 PM
👋 I'm on the academic job market! I'm a political scientist who studies the political economy of security and law enforcement, examining criminal and political violence and the state enforcement strategies that respond to these threats, with a regional focus on Latin America.
🧵 1/9
🧵 1/9
Excited to share my paper exploring subnational variation in law enforcement intensity, focusing on coca eradication in Colombia. I'll be presenting it at various venues soon, including the MPSA mini-conference on organized crime and politics.
julianegerez.github.io/research/EradicationCauses.pdf
julianegerez.github.io/research/EradicationCauses.pdf
March 25, 2024 at 3:15 PM
Excited to share my paper exploring subnational variation in law enforcement intensity, focusing on coca eradication in Colombia. I'll be presenting it at various venues soon, including the MPSA mini-conference on organized crime and politics.
julianegerez.github.io/research/EradicationCauses.pdf
julianegerez.github.io/research/EradicationCauses.pdf
Hi Polisky community, long-time (~2 months?) listener, first-time caller. I'm looking for good posters that present the pilot of an experiment—a mix of preliminary results and speculative design considerations seems to be the right idea here, but posters are new to me so any advice would be great.
February 12, 2024 at 3:49 PM
Hi Polisky community, long-time (~2 months?) listener, first-time caller. I'm looking for good posters that present the pilot of an experiment—a mix of preliminary results and speculative design considerations seems to be the right idea here, but posters are new to me so any advice would be great.