Joshua Kucera
@joshuakucera.bsky.social
Iowan in Tbilisi. Senior analyst, South Caucasus, International Crisis Group.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer than ever to finally resolving their decades-old conflict. But there are still significant obstacles which remain and that risk scuttling the process. Our new @crisisgroup.org briefing lays it out: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Armenia and Azerbaijan: The Hard Road to a Lasting Peace | International Crisis Group
A conflict-ending accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan sits ready for signature. Peace would be a boon for both countries and their common vision of regional economic integration. With help from outs...
www.crisisgroup.org
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer than ever to finally resolving their decades-old conflict. But there are still significant obstacles which remain and that risk scuttling the process. Our new @crisisgroup.org briefing lays it out: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Reposted by Joshua Kucera
A month ago, Trump hosted Aliyev & Pashinyan in Washington with much pomp. But the deal between Armenia & Azerbaijan, negotiated bilaterally months before, remains unsigned. Our new @crisisgroup.org briefing explores the roadblocks to peace & how to overcome them. @joshuakucera.bsky.social
Armenia and Azerbaijan: The Hard Road to a Lasting Peace | International Crisis Group
A conflict-ending accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan sits ready for signature. Peace would be a boon for both countries and their common vision of regional economic integration. With help from outs...
www.crisisgroup.org
September 5, 2025 at 11:45 AM
A month ago, Trump hosted Aliyev & Pashinyan in Washington with much pomp. But the deal between Armenia & Azerbaijan, negotiated bilaterally months before, remains unsigned. Our new @crisisgroup.org briefing explores the roadblocks to peace & how to overcome them. @joshuakucera.bsky.social
Reposted by Joshua Kucera
Some further reflections on yesterday’s White House summit between President Aliyev, PM Pashinyan and President Trump. It was by all accounts an extraordinary day, whose time-honoured optics and symbolism could seduce all but the most hardened observers of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process.
August 9, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Some further reflections on yesterday’s White House summit between President Aliyev, PM Pashinyan and President Trump. It was by all accounts an extraordinary day, whose time-honoured optics and symbolism could seduce all but the most hardened observers of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process.
Having watched the ceremony and read the text that they signed, a few additional thoughts. tl;dr: it was a positive event, but a lot of pitfalls lie ahead.
Later today Donald Trump is meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Trump promises that it will be an “official Peace Signing Ceremony.” Will it be? A background thread.
August 9, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Having watched the ceremony and read the text that they signed, a few additional thoughts. tl;dr: it was a positive event, but a lot of pitfalls lie ahead.
Later today Donald Trump is meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Trump promises that it will be an “official Peace Signing Ceremony.” Will it be? A background thread.
August 8, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Later today Donald Trump is meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Trump promises that it will be an “official Peace Signing Ceremony.” Will it be? A background thread.
Amid the crisis between Moscow and Baku, Russia remains useful for Azerbaijan: Baku appreciates Moscow’s efforts to weaken efforts from the U.S. and Europe to (as they see it) use democracy to advance their interests, I tell BBC Russian:
www.bbc.com/russian/arti...
www.bbc.com/russian/arti...
Сколько будут ссориться Азербайджан и Россия? И может ли конфликт ускорить примирение с Арменией? - BBC News Русская служба
Азербайджан хотел изменить характер отношений, уменьшить российское влияние на Южном Кавказе и из страны «ближнего зарубежья» превратиться в равного партнера.
www.bbc.com
July 4, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Amid the crisis between Moscow and Baku, Russia remains useful for Azerbaijan: Baku appreciates Moscow’s efforts to weaken efforts from the U.S. and Europe to (as they see it) use democracy to advance their interests, I tell BBC Russian:
www.bbc.com/russian/arti...
www.bbc.com/russian/arti...
Reposted by Joshua Kucera
“The nightmare scenario here [in the South Caucasus] is that Iran suffers serious internal instability or collapse of the state.”
@joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu
(13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
@joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu
(13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
Delegation to the EU-Armenia Parliamentary Partnership Committee, EU-Azerbaijan Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, and the EU-Georgia Parliamentary Association Committee Ordinary Meeting - Multimedi...
The multimedia platform of the European Parliament is the official public available repository of the media production of the Secretariat of the European Parliament, managed by the Directorate-General...
multimedia.europarl.europa.eu
June 27, 2025 at 10:22 AM
“The nightmare scenario here [in the South Caucasus] is that Iran suffers serious internal instability or collapse of the state.”
@joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu
(13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
@joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu
(13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
I spoke with the EU Parliament committees on the Caucasus to discuss the effect that the Iran-Israel war had (and could have again) on Armenia and Azerbaijan. (My part starts at 13:11:16.)
multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
Delegation to the EU-Armenia Parliamentary Partnership Committee, EU-Azerbaijan Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, and the EU-Georgia Parliamentary Association Committee Ordinary Meeting - Multimedi...
The multimedia platform of the European Parliament is the official public available repository of the media production of the Secretariat of the European Parliament, managed by the Directorate-General...
multimedia.europarl.europa.eu
June 26, 2025 at 11:27 AM
I spoke with the EU Parliament committees on the Caucasus to discuss the effect that the Iran-Israel war had (and could have again) on Armenia and Azerbaijan. (My part starts at 13:11:16.)
multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...
Azerbaijan and Turkey, very close allies, are in a rare public dispute after Turkey and Armenia agreed to temporarily open their border for Armenian humanitarian aid shipments to Syria.
March 24, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Azerbaijan and Turkey, very close allies, are in a rare public dispute after Turkey and Armenia agreed to temporarily open their border for Armenian humanitarian aid shipments to Syria.
Reposted by Joshua Kucera
My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward
After decades of conflict, the two moved closer to a peace deal. But outside support, especially from Ankara, is critical to maintain momentum.
carnegieendowment.org
March 18, 2025 at 10:36 AM
My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Trump’s national security adviser has weighed in following last week’s news that Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized the text of their peace agreement:
March 17, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Trump’s national security adviser has weighed in following last week’s news that Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized the text of their peace agreement:
Armenia and Azerbaijan have come to an agreement on the final two points of their peace agreement, Azerbaijan announced and Armenia confirmed. This COULD bring their three-plus-decade conflict to an end, but there is an even bigger obstacle still in the way, no celebrating just yet. t.co/rkWB5F489J
https://www.mfa.am/hy/interviews-articles-and-comments/2025/03/13/mfa_statement/13114
t.co
March 13, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Armenia and Azerbaijan have come to an agreement on the final two points of their peace agreement, Azerbaijan announced and Armenia confirmed. This COULD bring their three-plus-decade conflict to an end, but there is an even bigger obstacle still in the way, no celebrating just yet. t.co/rkWB5F489J
The first round of Abkhazia’s elections for a de facto president took place on Saturday. The establishment candidate, Badra Gunba, took 46 percent of the vote. The main opposition candidate, Adgur Ardzinba, took 37 percent. The two now head for a runoff on March 1. oc-media.org/abkhazias-pr...
Abkhazia’s presidential election heads to a second round
The second round of voting between Badra Gunba and Ardgur Ardzinba will take place within the next two weeks.
oc-media.org
February 17, 2025 at 9:15 AM
The first round of Abkhazia’s elections for a de facto president took place on Saturday. The establishment candidate, Badra Gunba, took 46 percent of the vote. The main opposition candidate, Adgur Ardzinba, took 37 percent. The two now head for a runoff on March 1. oc-media.org/abkhazias-pr...
Reposted by Joshua Kucera
"In reality, deploying NGOs for explicitly political action has long been viewed as the pinnacle of foreign grant-making — the most exalted discipline for the most eminent players, yielding the biggest bang for their buck."
jacobin.com/2025/02/west...
jacobin.com/2025/02/west...
Western-Backed NGOs: A Hollow Version of Civil Society
Donald Trump’s moves to dismantle USAID clearly aren’t driven by fears of infringing on other nations’ sovereignty. Still, we should recognize that Global South NGOs’ reliance on Western donors hinder...
jacobin.com
February 6, 2025 at 4:22 AM
"In reality, deploying NGOs for explicitly political action has long been viewed as the pinnacle of foreign grant-making — the most exalted discipline for the most eminent players, yielding the biggest bang for their buck."
jacobin.com/2025/02/west...
jacobin.com/2025/02/west...
The EU has agreed to extend the mandate of its border monitoring mission in Armenia for another two years: www.azatutyun.am/a/33295601.h... The current mandate, also two years, was scheduled to expire next month.
EU Agrees To Extend Border Mission In Armenia
Representatives of the European Union member states approved on Wednesday a proposal to extend the EU’s monitoring mission along Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan by two years.
www.azatutyun.am
January 30, 2025 at 8:06 AM
The EU has agreed to extend the mandate of its border monitoring mission in Armenia for another two years: www.azatutyun.am/a/33295601.h... The current mandate, also two years, was scheduled to expire next month.
Russia and Iran have agreed to finally start construction on a critical railroad, the Rasht-Astara line in northern Iran. This is the final link in a rail corridor that will eventually (in theory) stretch from St Petersburg to the Persian Gulf - via Azerbaijan. www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/...
Rasht – Astara construction to start after March 2025
At long last, the Iranian Rasht – Astara railway may finally start to see the light. Russia and Iran have reportedly agreed to begin building…
www.railfreight.com
January 28, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Russia and Iran have agreed to finally start construction on a critical railroad, the Rasht-Astara line in northern Iran. This is the final link in a rail corridor that will eventually (in theory) stretch from St Petersburg to the Persian Gulf - via Azerbaijan. www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/...
The current state of MAGA-Georgia relations, in three tweets.
No I don't understand it either.
No I don't understand it either.
January 28, 2025 at 6:42 AM
The current state of MAGA-Georgia relations, in three tweets.
No I don't understand it either.
No I don't understand it either.
Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service this week published its first-ever report on “external security risks” to Armenia, somewhat in the vein of the CIA’s “annual threat assessment.” It’s an interesting read, in particular with respect to Azerbaijan and Russia.
armenpress.am/storage/cont...
armenpress.am/storage/cont...
armenpress.am
January 24, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service this week published its first-ever report on “external security risks” to Armenia, somewhat in the vein of the CIA’s “annual threat assessment.” It’s an interesting read, in particular with respect to Azerbaijan and Russia.
armenpress.am/storage/cont...
armenpress.am/storage/cont...
Reposted by Joshua Kucera
NEW Q&A | Understanding the Israel-Hamas Truce
A deal has been reached to halt the war in Gaza and secure the release of Israelis held captive.
@crisisgroup.org experts break down the terms of the ceasefire agreement and its prospects for success.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
A deal has been reached to halt the war in Gaza and secure the release of Israelis held captive.
@crisisgroup.org experts break down the terms of the ceasefire agreement and its prospects for success.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Understanding the Israel-Hamas Truce | Crisis Group
A deal has been reached to halt the war that has devastated the Gaza Strip and to return many of the Israelis held captive there. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts lay out the ceasefire agreement’s contents and gauge its prospects for success.
www.crisisgroup.org
January 22, 2025 at 9:41 AM
NEW Q&A | Understanding the Israel-Hamas Truce
A deal has been reached to halt the war in Gaza and secure the release of Israelis held captive.
@crisisgroup.org experts break down the terms of the ceasefire agreement and its prospects for success.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
A deal has been reached to halt the war in Gaza and secure the release of Israelis held captive.
@crisisgroup.org experts break down the terms of the ceasefire agreement and its prospects for success.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Armenia and the U.S. will sign a Strategic Partnership agreement today. There's less than a week left in the Biden administration, and it’s the second inheritance in the Caucasus that the current WH is, in its waning days, bequeathing the incoming Trump administration.
armenpress.am/en/article/1...
armenpress.am/en/article/1...
Armenia-United States Strategic Partnership document to be signed today in Washington D.C.
Armenia and the United States will sign the document on Strategic Partnership today in Washington D.C., the foreign ministry has said.“Today in Washington Minister...
armenpress.am
January 14, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Armenia and the U.S. will sign a Strategic Partnership agreement today. There's less than a week left in the Biden administration, and it’s the second inheritance in the Caucasus that the current WH is, in its waning days, bequeathing the incoming Trump administration.
armenpress.am/en/article/1...
armenpress.am/en/article/1...
Dug up this story that I wrote for @slate.bsky.social after a trip to Greenland ... in 2008.
slate.com/news-and-pol...
slate.com/news-and-pol...
January 9, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Dug up this story that I wrote for @slate.bsky.social after a trip to Greenland ... in 2008.
slate.com/news-and-pol...
slate.com/news-and-pol...
Reposted by Joshua Kucera
Absolutely thrilled to announce that @joshuakucera.bsky.social has joined @crisisgroup.org as our new Senior South Caucasus Analyst! Welcome, Josh! Really looking forward to working with you!
January 6, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Absolutely thrilled to announce that @joshuakucera.bsky.social has joined @crisisgroup.org as our new Senior South Caucasus Analyst! Welcome, Josh! Really looking forward to working with you!
Reposted by Joshua Kucera
On the new @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, Elissa Jobson & I welcome back @joshuakucera.bsky.social to talk Georgia. We unpack Georgian Dream's popularity & election fraud accusations against it, future EU roles, & whether Abkhazia unrest is driven by local, regional, or geopolitical factors.
What Next for Georgia and Its Breakaway Regions after Contested Elections? | Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Tbilisi-based journalist Joshua Kucera about Georgia’s disputed parliamentary elections, the ruling Georgian Dream party’s success, the recent unrest in the breakaway region of Abkhazia, and the evolving ambitions of Russia and the EU in the region.
www.crisisgroup.org
November 26, 2024 at 5:08 PM
On the new @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, Elissa Jobson & I welcome back @joshuakucera.bsky.social to talk Georgia. We unpack Georgian Dream's popularity & election fraud accusations against it, future EU roles, & whether Abkhazia unrest is driven by local, regional, or geopolitical factors.
The “choose peace” message may have resonated with voters. “We want Europe,” said Levan Kobaladze, a 60-something doctor, as he left a polling station on Tbilisi’s central avenue. “But Western countries, America, they just want to make you do what they want.”
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
Georgia’s ruling party crushes the country’s European dream
Russia gloats, while the opposition and the president allege massive fraud
www.economist.com
October 31, 2024 at 2:28 PM
The “choose peace” message may have resonated with voters. “We want Europe,” said Levan Kobaladze, a 60-something doctor, as he left a polling station on Tbilisi’s central avenue. “But Western countries, America, they just want to make you do what they want.”
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
The caution from the west disappointed many Georgian opposition leaders and their supporters, who look to the United States and Europe for backing.
www.rferl.org/a/georgian-e...
www.rferl.org/a/georgian-e...
Amid Uncertainty Over Election Results, Georgians Look To The West
As Georgia reckons with its shock election results, all eyes are turning to the West to see if the United States and Europe will back up the opposition's claims that the election was stolen.
www.rferl.org
October 30, 2024 at 3:42 AM
The caution from the west disappointed many Georgian opposition leaders and their supporters, who look to the United States and Europe for backing.
www.rferl.org/a/georgian-e...
www.rferl.org/a/georgian-e...