Joshua Kucera
@joshuakucera.bsky.social
Iowan in Tbilisi. Senior analyst, South Caucasus, International Crisis Group.
What Trump did was give both sides (but more importantly Azerbaijan) more incentive to have the political will to carry out the concrete steps that they agreed on in principle. That hasn’t happened yet but the White House meeting improved the atmosphere a lot and I’m more optimistic than not.
October 28, 2025 at 6:05 PM
What Trump did was give both sides (but more importantly Azerbaijan) more incentive to have the political will to carry out the concrete steps that they agreed on in principle. That hasn’t happened yet but the White House meeting improved the atmosphere a lot and I’m more optimistic than not.
Does all this mean space is being created where it’s possible for the two sides to find some compromise on the constitution, and avert the looming disaster that the referendum could pose? Let’s hope.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Does all this mean space is being created where it’s possible for the two sides to find some compromise on the constitution, and avert the looming disaster that the referendum could pose? Let’s hope.
The two deputy PMs in charge of a joint border commission, also for the first time, crossed into each other’s territory during a visit along the border last week, the two sides announced. And now Turkey’s envoy to Armenia will come to Armenia in the coming days.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The two deputy PMs in charge of a joint border commission, also for the first time, crossed into each other’s territory during a visit along the border last week, the two sides announced. And now Turkey’s envoy to Armenia will come to Armenia in the coming days.
The August White House meeting has already improved the atmosphere and there have been some small but significant steps forward just in the last few days. Pashinyan’s plane crossed Azerbaijani airspace, reportedly a first.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The August White House meeting has already improved the atmosphere and there have been some small but significant steps forward just in the last few days. Pashinyan’s plane crossed Azerbaijani airspace, reportedly a first.
There is hope that the prospect of becoming a hub, or other potential peace dividends, could convince Baku to delink the constitution issue from the peace process. (Which it already did last year with another critical issue, the “Zangezur Corridor.)
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
There is hope that the prospect of becoming a hub, or other potential peace dividends, could convince Baku to delink the constitution issue from the peace process. (Which it already did last year with another critical issue, the “Zangezur Corridor.)
The U.S. is promising to help build the “Trump Route,” basically a version of what Azerbaijanis had been calling the Zangezur Corridor, a route through Armenia connecting the two noncontiguous parts of Azerbaijan. That could then open the door to many other regional connections.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The U.S. is promising to help build the “Trump Route,” basically a version of what Azerbaijanis had been calling the Zangezur Corridor, a route through Armenia connecting the two noncontiguous parts of Azerbaijan. That could then open the door to many other regional connections.
Armenia has its own regional hub vision, which is compatible with Azerbaijan’s, called the Crossroads of Peace. There also is interest from abroad in making all this happen – from the EU, Gulf states, and now most notably the U.S.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Armenia has its own regional hub vision, which is compatible with Azerbaijan’s, called the Crossroads of Peace. There also is interest from abroad in making all this happen – from the EU, Gulf states, and now most notably the U.S.
And that vision is not compatible with an unresolved conflict on its border. Officials in Baku acknowledge that Armenia has to be included if the Caucasus can really become a serious international hub, and that the investors needed to make this happen won’t come without peace.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
And that vision is not compatible with an unresolved conflict on its border. Officials in Baku acknowledge that Armenia has to be included if the Caucasus can really become a serious international hub, and that the investors needed to make this happen won’t come without peace.
But there also is another strain of thinking in Baku, one that is focused on turning the country into a transit and energy hub of the Greater Caspian region. It is something you increasingly see in the rhetoric of Aliyev and state-affiliated commentators.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
But there also is another strain of thinking in Baku, one that is focused on turning the country into a transit and energy hub of the Greater Caspian region. It is something you increasingly see in the rhetoric of Aliyev and state-affiliated commentators.
In the broader context, many in Azerbaijan feel that a peace deal will benefit Armenia more than them, and that the status quo of no war, no peace, is acceptable to Baku. So, in this thinking, they can afford to wait, and as the winners of the war, dictate terms on Armenia.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
In the broader context, many in Azerbaijan feel that a peace deal will benefit Armenia more than them, and that the status quo of no war, no peace, is acceptable to Baku. So, in this thinking, they can afford to wait, and as the winners of the war, dictate terms on Armenia.
In Baku, they say that’s not the case: they consider it a reasonable demand for the Armenian constitution not to enshrine a formal claim on their territory, and want the Armenian public to confirm that they renounce irredentist demands for the sake of long-term peace.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
In Baku, they say that’s not the case: they consider it a reasonable demand for the Armenian constitution not to enshrine a formal claim on their territory, and want the Armenian public to confirm that they renounce irredentist demands for the sake of long-term peace.
Many Armenians think that this is deliberate sabotage by Azerbaijan, which knows that Armenian voters will reject the new constitution.. “So, then the conflict will continue”, one Armenian source imagined Aliyev saying. “And then we will crush you.”
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Many Armenians think that this is deliberate sabotage by Azerbaijan, which knows that Armenian voters will reject the new constitution.. “So, then the conflict will continue”, one Armenian source imagined Aliyev saying. “And then we will crush you.”
Pashinyan has not done much to explain why the constitution needs to be changed, and in the context of Baku’s public demands to remove the language about Karabakh, many Armenian voters see it as the result of Azerbaijani bullying. So the chances of failure are high.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Pashinyan has not done much to explain why the constitution needs to be changed, and in the context of Baku’s public demands to remove the language about Karabakh, many Armenian voters see it as the result of Azerbaijani bullying. So the chances of failure are high.
Baku considers that language in the constitution a claim on its territory. PM Pashinyan has been saying he wants to change the constitution for years, but now is finally doing it; a referendum is tentatively planned for 2026 or 2027.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Baku considers that language in the constitution a claim on its territory. PM Pashinyan has been saying he wants to change the constitution for years, but now is finally doing it; a referendum is tentatively planned for 2026 or 2027.
The most significant remaining obstacle, though, is Armenia’s constitution. Azerbaijan says it won’t sign the agreement until Armenia changes its constitution to remove a(n indirect) reference to “reunification” with Nagorno-Karabakh.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The most significant remaining obstacle, though, is Armenia’s constitution. Azerbaijan says it won’t sign the agreement until Armenia changes its constitution to remove a(n indirect) reference to “reunification” with Nagorno-Karabakh.
But the Washington deal papered over some of the fundamental issues that still divide the two sides. This includes the “Trump Route” – which is a step forward, but still leaves unanswered the most difficult questions about how new transportation routes will be arranged.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
But the Washington deal papered over some of the fundamental issues that still divide the two sides. This includes the “Trump Route” – which is a step forward, but still leaves unanswered the most difficult questions about how new transportation routes will be arranged.
The two sides finalized the text of a peace agreement in March. In Washington last month the foreign ministers initialled it, while the leaders of the two countries – along with Trump – signed a separate agreement including some of the same principles that are in the peace deal.
September 8, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The two sides finalized the text of a peace agreement in March. In Washington last month the foreign ministers initialled it, while the leaders of the two countries – along with Trump – signed a separate agreement including some of the same principles that are in the peace deal.
From scanning social media in the Caucasus, along with the skepticism I see a lot of genuine happiness about what happened. That also will have its effect, trust between the two sides has been zero, and this will go some way in starting to rebuild it. Let's hope.
August 9, 2025 at 8:10 AM
From scanning social media in the Caucasus, along with the skepticism I see a lot of genuine happiness about what happened. That also will have its effect, trust between the two sides has been zero, and this will go some way in starting to rebuild it. Let's hope.
All that said, it was a remarkable sight to see them all there smiling, Pashinyan and Aliyev shaking hands. The vibes and symbolism were all very positive and that will have its own sort of effect.
August 9, 2025 at 8:10 AM
All that said, it was a remarkable sight to see them all there smiling, Pashinyan and Aliyev shaking hands. The vibes and symbolism were all very positive and that will have its own sort of effect.
The flattery ... my god. But both Pashinyan and Aliyev knew the assignment, this is what you have to do. And in this case it brought results. Though, doubts remain about the follow-up: this has always been a problem with U.S. involvement in the Caucasus, now 100x so with Trump.
August 9, 2025 at 8:10 AM
The flattery ... my god. But both Pashinyan and Aliyev knew the assignment, this is what you have to do. And in this case it brought results. Though, doubts remain about the follow-up: this has always been a problem with U.S. involvement in the Caucasus, now 100x so with Trump.
Aliyev reiterated that Armenia has to change its constitution before they will sign the peace agreement. This remains a deeply risky proposition -- asking Armenian voters to ratify their defeat -- and still threatens to scuttle the agreement.
August 9, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Aliyev reiterated that Armenia has to change its constitution before they will sign the peace agreement. This remains a deeply risky proposition -- asking Armenian voters to ratify their defeat -- and still threatens to scuttle the agreement.
The most significant potential pitfall is the lack of detail on the transportation agreement. Will there be customs checks? Who will provide security? What do the "reciprocal benefits" for Armenia entail? These were always the sticking points it seems like they remain so.
August 9, 2025 at 8:10 AM
The most significant potential pitfall is the lack of detail on the transportation agreement. Will there be customs checks? Who will provide security? What do the "reciprocal benefits" for Armenia entail? These were always the sticking points it seems like they remain so.