There is hope that the prospect of becoming a hub, or other potential peace dividends, could convince Baku to delink the constitution issue from the peace process. (Which it already did last year with another critical issue, the “Zangezur Corridor.)

And that vision is not compatible with an unresolved conflict on its border. Officials in Baku acknowledge that Armenia has to be included if the Caucasus can really become a serious international hub, and that the investors needed to make this happen won’t come without peace.

The most significant potential pitfall is the lack of detail on the transportation agreement. Will there be customs checks? Who will provide security? What do the "reciprocal benefits" for Armenia entail? These were always the sticking points it seems like they remain so.

The one really new, and potentially significant, element of everything being discussed today is the “Trump Route.” This is intended as a solution to another contentious issue between the two sides: a route that Azerbaijan wants built in Armenia to connect its mainland with its exclave of Nakhchivan.

Later today Donald Trump is meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Trump promises that it will be an “official Peace Signing Ceremony.” Will it be? A background thread.

Meanwhile, another senior U.S. official quietly visited Baku last week, with Iran reportedly high on the agenda. And Iran hawks are trying to leverage Azerbaijan’s friendly relations with Israel to strengthen its ties with the U.S.: www.wsj.com/opinion/isra...

And the EU monitoring mission also pushed back on the Azerbaijani claims, saying that it had observed no "unusual activity" on the border this weekend.

A lawyer for the most prominent of the prisoners, Ruben Vardanyan, is using Waltz’s statement to try to put pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan:

Trump’s national security adviser has weighed in following last week’s news that Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized the text of their peace agreement:

Now the focus is back on diplomacy 🤞. But the bad blood evidenced even in the announcement of the agreement is a sign of how much distrust still has to be overcome. But the bad blood evidenced even in the announcement of the agreement is a sign of how much distrust still has to be overcome.

The current state of MAGA-Georgia relations, in three tweets.

No I don't understand it either.

It also accuses Russia of plotting to overthrow the government, including by recruiting “the Nagorno Karabakh Armenians” in the conspiracy. (It is the only reference to Karabakh in the document.) Background: www.azatutyun.am/a/33125359.h...

The document also takes a hard jab at the Russia-led military alliance, the CSTO, suggesting that its conspicuous failure to come to Armenia’s aid will weaken its credibility among other member states.

Perhaps the most pointed bit in the entire document is a paragraph predicting that Russia will interfere in elections next year. And that “diversify[ing] economic dependencies” (Armenia is gradually moving toward a bid for EU candidacy) can help mitigate this threat.

Dug up this story that I wrote for @slate.bsky.social after a trip to Greenland ... in 2008.

slate.com/news-and-pol...

"Armenia is turning against its erstwhile guardian, Russia." But it has few other options. In @TheEconomist:

www.economist.com/europe/2023/...