Josh Housden
@joshhousden.bsky.social
He/Him • Green Party member 🍉 • I tweet about politics
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Josh Housden
@joshhousden.bsky.social
· Feb 4
House of Commons nowcast - 04/02/25
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
Labour MPs who are afraid of losing their seat to Reform could advocate for proportional representation instead of right-wing immigration policies......
Problem is they are far more likely to personally agree with the latter
Problem is they are far more likely to personally agree with the latter
February 4, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Labour MPs who are afraid of losing their seat to Reform could advocate for proportional representation instead of right-wing immigration policies......
Problem is they are far more likely to personally agree with the latter
Problem is they are far more likely to personally agree with the latter
House of Commons nowcast - 04/02/25
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
February 4, 2025 at 3:37 PM
House of Commons nowcast - 04/02/25
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
UK seat projection under Proportional Representation - 03/02/25
🟥 LAB: 168 (-66)
➡️ RFM: 161 (+65)
🟦 CON: 144 (-12)
🟧 LDM: 80 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 55 (+12)
🟨 SNP: 19 (+2)
+/- vs. GE24 (PR)
🟥 LAB: 168 (-66)
➡️ RFM: 161 (+65)
🟦 CON: 144 (-12)
🟧 LDM: 80 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 55 (+12)
🟨 SNP: 19 (+2)
+/- vs. GE24 (PR)
February 3, 2025 at 4:25 PM
UK seat projection under Proportional Representation - 03/02/25
🟥 LAB: 168 (-66)
➡️ RFM: 161 (+65)
🟦 CON: 144 (-12)
🟧 LDM: 80 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 55 (+12)
🟨 SNP: 19 (+2)
+/- vs. GE24 (PR)
🟥 LAB: 168 (-66)
➡️ RFM: 161 (+65)
🟦 CON: 144 (-12)
🟧 LDM: 80 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 55 (+12)
🟨 SNP: 19 (+2)
+/- vs. GE24 (PR)
FPTP is a terrible system for modern-day British politics, most people understand that
You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't?
The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it
You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't?
The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it
All UK parties (except Conservatives, marginally) have voter bases that prefer proportional representation over first-past-the-post.
February 3, 2025 at 3:24 PM
FPTP is a terrible system for modern-day British politics, most people understand that
You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't?
The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it
You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't?
The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it
Labour vote share HALVED in Scotland
Down from 35.3%
Down from 35.3%
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP: 31% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-2)
RFM: 17% (+2)
CON: 12% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 15-20 Jan.
Changes w/ 17-24 Dec.
SNP: 31% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-2)
RFM: 17% (+2)
CON: 12% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 15-20 Jan.
Changes w/ 17-24 Dec.
February 2, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Labour vote share HALVED in Scotland
Down from 35.3%
Down from 35.3%
Aberdeen South nowcast - 02/02/25
(Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald)
🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1)
🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1)
🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7)
🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5)
🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7)
+/- vs. GE24
Stephen Flynn's seat
(Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald)
🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1)
🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1)
🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7)
🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5)
🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7)
+/- vs. GE24
Stephen Flynn's seat
February 2, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Aberdeen South nowcast - 02/02/25
(Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald)
🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1)
🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1)
🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7)
🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5)
🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7)
+/- vs. GE24
Stephen Flynn's seat
(Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald)
🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1)
🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1)
🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7)
🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5)
🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7)
+/- vs. GE24
Stephen Flynn's seat
I think about this image a lot
January 29, 2025 at 6:33 PM
I think about this image a lot
*PR* seat projection for today's @FindoutnowUK poll
🟥 LAB: 169 (-64)
➡️ RFM: 164 (+68)
🟦 CON: 132 (-24)
🟧 LDM: 73 (-8)
🟩 GRN: 70 (+27)
+/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result
🟥 LAB: 169 (-64)
➡️ RFM: 164 (+68)
🟦 CON: 132 (-24)
🟧 LDM: 73 (-8)
🟩 GRN: 70 (+27)
+/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result
January 9, 2025 at 4:59 PM
*PR* seat projection for today's @FindoutnowUK poll
🟥 LAB: 169 (-64)
➡️ RFM: 164 (+68)
🟦 CON: 132 (-24)
🟧 LDM: 73 (-8)
🟩 GRN: 70 (+27)
+/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result
🟥 LAB: 169 (-64)
➡️ RFM: 164 (+68)
🟦 CON: 132 (-24)
🟧 LDM: 73 (-8)
🟩 GRN: 70 (+27)
+/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result
Reposted by Josh Housden
For more than two weeks, students hold an overnight protest at the Shota Rustaveli Theater and Film University. Among nationwide demands, they also want the resignation of Rector Giorgi Shalutashvili.
Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests
Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests
January 5, 2025 at 2:59 PM
For more than two weeks, students hold an overnight protest at the Shota Rustaveli Theater and Film University. Among nationwide demands, they also want the resignation of Rector Giorgi Shalutashvili.
Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests
Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests
As the year comes to a close, here's a quick update on party performance (1918 - 2024)
Per recent polling:
🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918
🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024
Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline
Per recent polling:
🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918
🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024
Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline
December 17, 2024 at 9:04 PM
As the year comes to a close, here's a quick update on party performance (1918 - 2024)
Per recent polling:
🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918
🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024
Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline
Per recent polling:
🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918
🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024
Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline
Big problem with Labour abandoning WASPI women is that they (again) prove absolutely nothing they "pledge" can be trusted
The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this
The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this
December 17, 2024 at 3:23 PM
Big problem with Labour abandoning WASPI women is that they (again) prove absolutely nothing they "pledge" can be trusted
The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this
The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this
Terrible MP, terrible Foreign Secretary
He should've resigned months ago.
news.sky.com/story/foreig...
He should've resigned months ago.
news.sky.com/story/foreig...
Foreign secretary says people should 'follow the rules' in other countries after 18-year-old constituent jailed in Dubai
Marcus Fakana, from David Lammy's Tottenham constituency, had a "holiday romance" with a girl who was 17 while with his family in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
news.sky.com
December 16, 2024 at 5:13 PM
Terrible MP, terrible Foreign Secretary
He should've resigned months ago.
news.sky.com/story/foreig...
He should've resigned months ago.
news.sky.com/story/foreig...
Reposted by Josh Housden
It’s the week before the 6th annual Office Xmas Party & Paul & Eli are doing a bit of shopping. It’s one last walkabout adventure for 2024 & they’re loose in the cramped streets of London!
Listen in MONO or STEREO editions!
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk
Share/Review
www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...
Listen in MONO or STEREO editions!
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk
Share/Review
www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk | CheapShow
It’s 2024’s final walkabout episode and Paul & Eli need to get a bit of shopping done. A simple errand becomes another rowdy adventure!
www.thecheapshow.co.uk
December 13, 2024 at 12:17 PM
It’s the week before the 6th annual Office Xmas Party & Paul & Eli are doing a bit of shopping. It’s one last walkabout adventure for 2024 & they’re loose in the cramped streets of London!
Listen in MONO or STEREO editions!
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk
Share/Review
www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...
Listen in MONO or STEREO editions!
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk
Share/Review
www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...
Assisted dying bill if parliament was proportionally elected (assuming party splits remain the same)
✅ FOR: 342 (+12)
❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4)
➖ ABSENT: 38
+/- vs. actual result
✅ FOR: 342 (+12)
❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4)
➖ ABSENT: 38
+/- vs. actual result
November 29, 2024 at 10:37 PM
Assisted dying bill if parliament was proportionally elected (assuming party splits remain the same)
✅ FOR: 342 (+12)
❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4)
➖ ABSENT: 38
+/- vs. actual result
✅ FOR: 342 (+12)
❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4)
➖ ABSENT: 38
+/- vs. actual result
Gut feeling about the Irish general election:
🟩 FF: 40-45
🟦 FG: 35-40
🟩 SF: 35-40
🟪 SD: 10
🟥 Lab: 5
🟩 Grn: 2
I guess we'll find out in roughly 60 mins if this is anywhere close to accurate
🟩 FF: 40-45
🟦 FG: 35-40
🟩 SF: 35-40
🟪 SD: 10
🟥 Lab: 5
🟩 Grn: 2
I guess we'll find out in roughly 60 mins if this is anywhere close to accurate
November 29, 2024 at 9:04 PM
Gut feeling about the Irish general election:
🟩 FF: 40-45
🟦 FG: 35-40
🟩 SF: 35-40
🟪 SD: 10
🟥 Lab: 5
🟩 Grn: 2
I guess we'll find out in roughly 60 mins if this is anywhere close to accurate
🟩 FF: 40-45
🟦 FG: 35-40
🟩 SF: 35-40
🟪 SD: 10
🟥 Lab: 5
🟩 Grn: 2
I guess we'll find out in roughly 60 mins if this is anywhere close to accurate
Lost about 80 followers this week on twitter
Either the exodus is real, or I've been cancelled for something without realising (!?)
Either the exodus is real, or I've been cancelled for something without realising (!?)
November 29, 2024 at 7:47 PM
Lost about 80 followers this week on twitter
Either the exodus is real, or I've been cancelled for something without realising (!?)
Either the exodus is real, or I've been cancelled for something without realising (!?)
Using my own seat model-
🟦 CON: 240 (+119)
🟥 LAB: 214 (-197)
🟧 LDM: 62 (-10)
➡️ RFM: 59 (+54)
🟩 GRN: 10 (+6)
With a CON/RFM pact, these numbers shift dramatically to-
🟦 CON: 331 (+210)
🟥 LAB: 114 (-297)
➡️ RFM: 111 (+106)
🟧 LDM: 31 (-41)
🟩 GRN: 10 (+6)
(Not saying it's likely, just interesting)
🟦 CON: 240 (+119)
🟥 LAB: 214 (-197)
🟧 LDM: 62 (-10)
➡️ RFM: 59 (+54)
🟩 GRN: 10 (+6)
With a CON/RFM pact, these numbers shift dramatically to-
🟦 CON: 331 (+210)
🟥 LAB: 114 (-297)
➡️ RFM: 111 (+106)
🟧 LDM: 31 (-41)
🟩 GRN: 10 (+6)
(Not saying it's likely, just interesting)
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 27% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-10)
RFM: 22% (+7)
LDM: 12% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 27 Nov.
Changes w/ GE2024.
CON: 27% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-10)
RFM: 22% (+7)
LDM: 12% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 27 Nov.
Changes w/ GE2024.
November 28, 2024 at 4:32 PM
Using my own seat model-
🟦 CON: 240 (+119)
🟥 LAB: 214 (-197)
🟧 LDM: 62 (-10)
➡️ RFM: 59 (+54)
🟩 GRN: 10 (+6)
With a CON/RFM pact, these numbers shift dramatically to-
🟦 CON: 331 (+210)
🟥 LAB: 114 (-297)
➡️ RFM: 111 (+106)
🟧 LDM: 31 (-41)
🟩 GRN: 10 (+6)
(Not saying it's likely, just interesting)
🟦 CON: 240 (+119)
🟥 LAB: 214 (-197)
🟧 LDM: 62 (-10)
➡️ RFM: 59 (+54)
🟩 GRN: 10 (+6)
With a CON/RFM pact, these numbers shift dramatically to-
🟦 CON: 331 (+210)
🟥 LAB: 114 (-297)
➡️ RFM: 111 (+106)
🟧 LDM: 31 (-41)
🟩 GRN: 10 (+6)
(Not saying it's likely, just interesting)
ICYMI: All four Green Party MPs voted for the Rail Public Ownership Bill yesterday 👍
November 20, 2024 at 10:44 PM
ICYMI: All four Green Party MPs voted for the Rail Public Ownership Bill yesterday 👍
🇺🇦🇵🇸 is the only morally defensible position
November 20, 2024 at 9:39 PM
🇺🇦🇵🇸 is the only morally defensible position
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇬🇧 United Kingdom, Nowcast projection - 20/11/2024
🟥 LAB: 287 (-124)
🟦 CON: 214 (+93)
🟧 LDM: 68 (-4)
🟨 SNP: 23 (+14)
➡️ RFM: 19 (+14)
🟩 GRN: 7 (+3)
🟩 PLC: 4 (=)
+/- vs. last election, July 2024
Majority: ~320
Next election: 2029
🟥 LAB: 287 (-124)
🟦 CON: 214 (+93)
🟧 LDM: 68 (-4)
🟨 SNP: 23 (+14)
➡️ RFM: 19 (+14)
🟩 GRN: 7 (+3)
🟩 PLC: 4 (=)
+/- vs. last election, July 2024
Majority: ~320
Next election: 2029
November 20, 2024 at 6:26 PM
🇬🇧 United Kingdom, Nowcast projection - 20/11/2024
🟥 LAB: 287 (-124)
🟦 CON: 214 (+93)
🟧 LDM: 68 (-4)
🟨 SNP: 23 (+14)
➡️ RFM: 19 (+14)
🟩 GRN: 7 (+3)
🟩 PLC: 4 (=)
+/- vs. last election, July 2024
Majority: ~320
Next election: 2029
🟥 LAB: 287 (-124)
🟦 CON: 214 (+93)
🟧 LDM: 68 (-4)
🟨 SNP: 23 (+14)
➡️ RFM: 19 (+14)
🟩 GRN: 7 (+3)
🟩 PLC: 4 (=)
+/- vs. last election, July 2024
Majority: ~320
Next election: 2029
Last time this happened, the (Tory) government were accused of "rolling out the red carpet to dictators"
Things will be different with a human rights lawyer in charge... right?
Things will be different with a human rights lawyer in charge... right?
EXC: Keir Starmer will travel to Saudi Arabia and UAE next month, as UK govt seeks to drum up billions of pounds investment from Gulf sovereign wealth funds
MBS may in turn visit Britain next year, but plans are yet to be finalised
www.ft.com/content/ad06...
MBS may in turn visit Britain next year, but plans are yet to be finalised
www.ft.com/content/ad06...
Keir Starmer to visit Saudi Arabia and UAE to try to secure investment
UK prime minister is seeking billions of pounds of Gulf money to boost British growth
www.ft.com
November 20, 2024 at 2:19 PM
Last time this happened, the (Tory) government were accused of "rolling out the red carpet to dictators"
Things will be different with a human rights lawyer in charge... right?
Things will be different with a human rights lawyer in charge... right?
Well, we absolutely should be targeting people who earn income from assets and land!
🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer says he is "absolutely not" engaged in a class war on wealthy people
Rigby: "You’ve targeted people who send their kids to private schools, people who earn income from assets, landowners, small business owners. There is a pattern here, is this class war?"
Rigby: "You’ve targeted people who send their kids to private schools, people who earn income from assets, landowners, small business owners. There is a pattern here, is this class war?"
November 19, 2024 at 2:57 PM
Well, we absolutely should be targeting people who earn income from assets and land!
This is the worst poll I've ever seen for any leader 💀
🇵🇪#Peru, President Boluarte approval rating poll:
🔽Approve: 3 % (-2)
⏸️Disapprove: 94 % (+2)
This is the worst poll ever for President Boluarte.
Datum, November 2024
🔽Approve: 3 % (-2)
⏸️Disapprove: 94 % (+2)
This is the worst poll ever for President Boluarte.
Datum, November 2024
November 18, 2024 at 6:35 PM
This is the worst poll I've ever seen for any leader 💀
One of the most evil senators in America, and he's not even a Republican!
November 18, 2024 at 4:58 PM
One of the most evil senators in America, and he's not even a Republican!