Johan Engvall
@jengvall.bsky.social
Research & analysis on Central Asia, South Caucasus
Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at The Swedish Institute for International Affairs (UI) https://www.ui.se/english/about/staff/johan-engvall/
Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at The Swedish Institute for International Affairs (UI) https://www.ui.se/english/about/staff/johan-engvall/
My latest with Svante Cornell on the potential of Central Asia-Nordic cooperation.
How is the Nordic experience of regional cooperation relevant to the distant Central Asia?
Read more on this intriguing topic here: buff.ly/EprDyZv
Read more on this intriguing topic here: buff.ly/EprDyZv
August 14, 2025 at 8:06 AM
My latest with Svante Cornell on the potential of Central Asia-Nordic cooperation.
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Chinese influence in the #CentralAsia region will significantly increase and will be especially important in the coming years. buff.ly/pQE7A3i
August 13, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Chinese influence in the #CentralAsia region will significantly increase and will be especially important in the coming years. buff.ly/pQE7A3i
Reposted by Johan Engvall
How is the Nordic experience of regional cooperation relevant to the distant Central Asia?
Read more on this intriguing topic here: buff.ly/EprDyZv
Read more on this intriguing topic here: buff.ly/EprDyZv
August 13, 2025 at 11:03 PM
How is the Nordic experience of regional cooperation relevant to the distant Central Asia?
Read more on this intriguing topic here: buff.ly/EprDyZv
Read more on this intriguing topic here: buff.ly/EprDyZv
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Den som hoppas på fred i Ukraina vid fredagens möte i Alaska mellan Trump och Putin hoppas för mycket – Ryssland har gång på gång genom åren talat om fred och svarat med kulor.
@dagensnyheter.bsky.social @sceeus-ui.bsky.social @uisweden.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social @sveukr.bsky.social
@dagensnyheter.bsky.social @sceeus-ui.bsky.social @uisweden.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social @sveukr.bsky.social
DN Debatt. ”Ett avbrott i striderna spelar Ryssland i händerna”
DN Debatt. Östeuropaexperten Andreas Umland: Den som hoppas på fred i Ukraina efter mötet mellan Trump och Putin i Alaska hoppas för mycket.
share.google
August 13, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Den som hoppas på fred i Ukraina vid fredagens möte i Alaska mellan Trump och Putin hoppas för mycket – Ryssland har gång på gång genom åren talat om fred och svarat med kulor.
@dagensnyheter.bsky.social @sceeus-ui.bsky.social @uisweden.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social @sveukr.bsky.social
@dagensnyheter.bsky.social @sceeus-ui.bsky.social @uisweden.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social @sveukr.bsky.social
Reposted by Johan Engvall
After a country is taken over by illiberal rule, it's not easy to bring the pendulum back to liberalism.
Read FREE:
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Read FREE:
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
August 11, 2025 at 5:16 PM
After a country is taken over by illiberal rule, it's not easy to bring the pendulum back to liberalism.
Read FREE:
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Read FREE:
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Thanks @FPRI for publishing my look at some of the Chinese investment and deals for projects in Central Asia since 2023. www.fpri.org/article/2025...
Debt and Development: The Next Chapter of Chinese Investments in Central Asia - Foreign Policy Research Institute
China has been a major investor and trade partner in Central Asia for some twenty-five years. For the first half of those years, Beijing was focused on oil
www.fpri.org
August 11, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Thanks @FPRI for publishing my look at some of the Chinese investment and deals for projects in Central Asia since 2023. www.fpri.org/article/2025...
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Capitalism isn't a threat to democracy on its own. The real threat is state capture of business.
Read "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" by Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky:
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Read "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" by Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky:
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
July 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Capitalism isn't a threat to democracy on its own. The real threat is state capture of business.
Read "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" by Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky:
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
Read "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" by Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky:
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
The Nordic region and the Central Asian region have more in common and more to learn from each other than meets the eye. The case for why the Nordic countries should engage Central Asia.
nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-ro...
nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-ro...
How the Nordic Countries Can Engage Central Asia
Both the Nordic and Central Asian blocs have more in common and more to learn from each other than meets the eye.
nationalinterest.org
July 30, 2025 at 10:35 AM
The Nordic region and the Central Asian region have more in common and more to learn from each other than meets the eye. The case for why the Nordic countries should engage Central Asia.
nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-ro...
nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-ro...
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Our @pannierb.bsky.social makes the case for Uzbekistan's military budget rise signaling its potential as a Central Asian power timesca.com/uzbekistans-... #Uzbekistan #CentralAsia #MilitaryBudget #UzbekDefense #MilitaryStrategy #CentralAsianSecurity #PolicyAnalysis
Uzbekistan's New Emphasis on the Military - The Times Of Central Asia
Uzbekistan has become Central Asia’s leader in terms of military spending. This raises some questions about why Uzbekistan has boosted its military spending,
timesca.com
March 24, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Our @pannierb.bsky.social makes the case for Uzbekistan's military budget rise signaling its potential as a Central Asian power timesca.com/uzbekistans-... #Uzbekistan #CentralAsia #MilitaryBudget #UzbekDefense #MilitaryStrategy #CentralAsianSecurity #PolicyAnalysis
Amid talks of a new European security architecture, European countries no longer have the luxury of ignoring Türkiye.
Re-upping this piece from a year ago, in which I argued that it is a strong EU interest to strengthen security cooperation with Ankara.
Re-upping this piece from a year ago, in which I argued that it is a strong EU interest to strengthen security cooperation with Ankara.
Eurasia: Between Russia and Turkey
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions have reinforced economic relations between an increasingly isolated Russia and an opportunistic Turkey. Russia has become Turkey’s leading...
nationalinterest.org
March 18, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Amid talks of a new European security architecture, European countries no longer have the luxury of ignoring Türkiye.
Re-upping this piece from a year ago, in which I argued that it is a strong EU interest to strengthen security cooperation with Ankara.
Re-upping this piece from a year ago, in which I argued that it is a strong EU interest to strengthen security cooperation with Ankara.
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Fresh off-the-press: I had the honor of contributing a chapter on Kazakhstan for the 2025 Atlas Freedom and Prosperity Around the World, the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's flagship publication: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
Surrounded by superpowers, Kazakhstan walks a geopolitical tightrope
Still a relatively young nation, Kazakhstan finds itself at critical juncture amid a series of domestic and geopolitical shocks.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
February 8, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Fresh off-the-press: I had the honor of contributing a chapter on Kazakhstan for the 2025 Atlas Freedom and Prosperity Around the World, the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's flagship publication: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Caucasus and Central Asia - different worlds? Not anymore. As trade routes are redrawn and diplomatic alliances diversified, the Caspian Sea is becoming a unifier rather than divider of the regions. The EU should develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this evolving geopolitical landscape.
The Convergence of the South Caucasus and Central Asia: an Opportunity for a New EU partnership
<p align="left"><strong>Johan Engvall</strong></p> <p><strong>January 22, 2025</strong&...
www.cacianalyst.org
January 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Caucasus and Central Asia - different worlds? Not anymore. As trade routes are redrawn and diplomatic alliances diversified, the Caspian Sea is becoming a unifier rather than divider of the regions. The EU should develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this evolving geopolitical landscape.
Reposted by Johan Engvall
If you’re unsure why 🇹🇷🇪🇺 EU-Türkiye relations are important?
🔟-point-list 👇
————————
1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa.
German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye
. . . Continued
🔟-point-list 👇
————————
1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa.
German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye
. . . Continued
January 30, 2025 at 1:10 PM
If you’re unsure why 🇹🇷🇪🇺 EU-Türkiye relations are important?
🔟-point-list 👇
————————
1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa.
German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye
. . . Continued
🔟-point-list 👇
————————
1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa.
German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye
. . . Continued
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet?
My take in @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...
My take in @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...
Europe’s Four Different Ways of Handling Trump
From vacuous moralizers to pragmatic engagers, European governments are divided once again.
foreignpolicy.com
January 30, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet?
My take in @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...
My take in @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...
Reposted by Johan Engvall
"The shifting geopolitical landscape presents the U.S. with a unique opportunity to adopt a more proactive foreign policy toward Central Asia," writes Uzbekistan's former ambassador to the US Javlon Vakhabov for @thediplomat.com
thediplomat.com/2025/01/rene...
thediplomat.com/2025/01/rene...
Renewed Horizons: Strengthening Central Asia-US Relations under the Trump Administration
As the new administration charts its foreign policy course, a stronger Central Asia-U.S. partnership can serve as a model for mutually beneficial cooperation.
thediplomat.com
January 26, 2025 at 4:24 PM
"The shifting geopolitical landscape presents the U.S. with a unique opportunity to adopt a more proactive foreign policy toward Central Asia," writes Uzbekistan's former ambassador to the US Javlon Vakhabov for @thediplomat.com
thediplomat.com/2025/01/rene...
thediplomat.com/2025/01/rene...
Caucasus and Central Asia - different worlds? Not anymore. As trade routes are redrawn and diplomatic alliances diversified, the Caspian Sea is becoming a unifier rather than divider of the regions. The EU should develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this evolving geopolitical landscape.
The Convergence of the South Caucasus and Central Asia: an Opportunity for a New EU partnership
<p align="left"><strong>Johan Engvall</strong></p> <p><strong>January 22, 2025</strong&...
www.cacianalyst.org
January 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Caucasus and Central Asia - different worlds? Not anymore. As trade routes are redrawn and diplomatic alliances diversified, the Caspian Sea is becoming a unifier rather than divider of the regions. The EU should develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this evolving geopolitical landscape.
Reposted by Johan Engvall
🆕 Read CACI's new Feature Article: "The Convergence of the South Caucasus and Central Asia: an Opportunity for a New EU partnership" by Johan Engvall (@jengvall.bsky.social).
🔗 Link here: https://buff.ly/40O6ibS
🔗 Link here: https://buff.ly/40O6ibS
The Convergence of the South Caucasus and Central Asia: an Opportunity for a New EU partnership
<p align="left"><strong>Johan Engvall</strong></p> <p><strong>January 22, 2025</strong></p>...
cacianalyst.org
January 24, 2025 at 10:42 AM
🆕 Read CACI's new Feature Article: "The Convergence of the South Caucasus and Central Asia: an Opportunity for a New EU partnership" by Johan Engvall (@jengvall.bsky.social).
🔗 Link here: https://buff.ly/40O6ibS
🔗 Link here: https://buff.ly/40O6ibS
Reposted by Johan Engvall
In the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the desire to forge closer ties with the EU has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
@jengvall.bsky.social, #SCEEUS, in NEE
@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @fpri.bsky.social @euwatch.live @caucasussurvey.bsky.social
@jengvall.bsky.social, #SCEEUS, in NEE
@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @fpri.bsky.social @euwatch.live @caucasussurvey.bsky.social
It is time for the EU to initiate a Trans-Caspian Partnership
EU leaders’ decision to start accession negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine has put the final nail in the coffin of the Eastern Partnership which was never designed to handle enlargement. The time i...
neweasterneurope.eu
August 21, 2024 at 12:58 PM
In the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the desire to forge closer ties with the EU has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
@jengvall.bsky.social, #SCEEUS, in NEE
@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @fpri.bsky.social @euwatch.live @caucasussurvey.bsky.social
@jengvall.bsky.social, #SCEEUS, in NEE
@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @fpri.bsky.social @euwatch.live @caucasussurvey.bsky.social
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Ten years of insufficient support for Ukraine, coupled with many states' continued trade with Russia, have led Kyiv to shift from a defensive to an offensive stance.
My today's @kyivindependent.com article based on a #SCEEUS commentary.
@nordicukraine.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social
My today's @kyivindependent.com article based on a #SCEEUS commentary.
@nordicukraine.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social
Opinion: 6 ways Ukraine’s Kursk incursion is changing the tide of war
As becomes clearer with each passing day, the Ukrainian foray into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which began on Aug. 6, is no minor incident. Kyiv’s unexpected operation on Russian territory could fundamenta...
kyivindependent.com
August 15, 2024 at 11:06 AM
Ten years of insufficient support for Ukraine, coupled with many states' continued trade with Russia, have led Kyiv to shift from a defensive to an offensive stance.
My today's @kyivindependent.com article based on a #SCEEUS commentary.
@nordicukraine.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social
My today's @kyivindependent.com article based on a #SCEEUS commentary.
@nordicukraine.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social
Reposted by Johan Engvall
The Ukrainian foray into Russian state territory deconstructs the image – inside Russia and around the world – of a seemingly static frontline, stable force constellation, and predictable course of the conflict.
@nordicukraine.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social
@nordicukraine.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social
A Turn in the Russo-Ukrainian War? - SCEEUS
SCEEUS Commentary | A Turn in the Russo-Ukrainian War? by Andreas Umland | Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies
sceeus.se
August 13, 2024 at 11:58 AM
The Ukrainian foray into Russian state territory deconstructs the image – inside Russia and around the world – of a seemingly static frontline, stable force constellation, and predictable course of the conflict.
@nordicukraine.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social
@nordicukraine.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social
Reposted by Johan Engvall
A Russian victory over Ukraine would have grave implications not only for the post-Soviet region, but far beyond it. Conversely, a Ukrainian success in its defense against Russia will have stabilizing and innovating effects far beyond Eastern Europe.
The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
Global Dimensions of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Essays – The Russo-Ukrainian War is a grand battle about both the future of Europe and the principle of inviolability of borders. In addition, the war’s course and
jstribune.com
August 8, 2024 at 6:37 PM
A Russian victory over Ukraine would have grave implications not only for the post-Soviet region, but far beyond it. Conversely, a Ukrainian success in its defense against Russia will have stabilizing and innovating effects far beyond Eastern Europe.
The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Anniversary of #Belarus2020 mass protests
Check out our special issue
“The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus”
by @gwendolynsasse.bsky.social & me
How can & should we analyze mass mobilization and its outcomes in authoritarian states as social scientists? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Check out our special issue
“The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus”
by @gwendolynsasse.bsky.social & me
How can & should we analyze mass mobilization and its outcomes in authoritarian states as social scientists? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Nationalities Papers: Volume 51 - Special Issue on Mass Mobilization in Belarus | Cambridge Core
Cambridge Core - Nationalities Papers - Volume 51 - Special Issue on Mass Mobilization in Belarus
www.cambridge.org
August 10, 2024 at 8:09 PM
Anniversary of #Belarus2020 mass protests
Check out our special issue
“The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus”
by @gwendolynsasse.bsky.social & me
How can & should we analyze mass mobilization and its outcomes in authoritarian states as social scientists? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Check out our special issue
“The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus”
by @gwendolynsasse.bsky.social & me
How can & should we analyze mass mobilization and its outcomes in authoritarian states as social scientists? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Johan Engvall
Kyiv has not only changed the military narrative on the ground but also tries to change the narrative on negotiations—from a “land for peace” deal to a “land for land” deal.
My today's piece in @foreignpolicy.com
@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social
My today's piece in @foreignpolicy.com
@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social
Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War
One aim of the surprise breakthrough may be for Kyiv to gain leverage in negotiations.
foreignpolicy.com
August 9, 2024 at 3:40 PM
Kyiv has not only changed the military narrative on the ground but also tries to change the narrative on negotiations—from a “land for peace” deal to a “land for land” deal.
My today's piece in @foreignpolicy.com
@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social
My today's piece in @foreignpolicy.com
@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social
Reposted by Johan Engvall
"Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War"
...has now been for almost 24 hours the top story, number one editors' pick & most trending article on the website of @foreignpolicy.com.
Here is a gift link for free access to the text:
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/09/k...
...has now been for almost 24 hours the top story, number one editors' pick & most trending article on the website of @foreignpolicy.com.
Here is a gift link for free access to the text:
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/09/k...
August 10, 2024 at 1:40 PM
"Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War"
...has now been for almost 24 hours the top story, number one editors' pick & most trending article on the website of @foreignpolicy.com.
Here is a gift link for free access to the text:
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/09/k...
...has now been for almost 24 hours the top story, number one editors' pick & most trending article on the website of @foreignpolicy.com.
Here is a gift link for free access to the text:
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/09/k...