Kristi Raik
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik
@kristiraik.bsky.social
5.3K followers 200 following 66 posts
Director, International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn. Adjunct Professor, University of Turku. Feeling home in Estonia, Finland and at sea.
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jan 30
Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet?
My take in @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...
Europe’s Four Different Ways of Handling Trump
From vacuous moralizers to pragmatic engagers, European governments are divided once again.
foreignpolicy.com
Reposted by Kristi Raik
foreignpolicy.com
Finland avoided full subjugation to Moscow thanks to a combination of the broader geopolitical context and its own defense preparedness—not by being friendly toward the Soviets.
The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate
A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war.
foreignpolicy.com
September 16, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
"It is Europe’s weakness & hesitation that encourage Russia and allow Putin to believe that he can achieve a better outcome by continuing the war. Europeans must define their long-term commitments so that Russia’s calculation changes & continuation of war no longer pays off." @kristiraik.bsky.social
September 17, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
Finland’s history offers a warning, not a model.

Kristi Raik explains how Ukraine differs from Finland – and why trading land for peace is unlikely to bring lasting stability. @foreignpolicy.com @kristiraik.bsky.social
The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate
A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war.
foreignpolicy.com
September 16, 2025 at 11:22 AM
kristiraik.bsky.social
Thank you for great discussions @bruegel.org!
Much remains to be done to strengthen European defence.
bruegel.org Bruegel @bruegel.org · Sep 3
❗ LIVE NOW: The future of Europe’s defence
🔗 buff.ly/VQS0Bks

🗣️ @guntramwolff.bsky.social, Bertrand Dumont (French Treasury), @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & @simonassatunas.bsky.social @ec.europa.eu
September 3, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
diplomaatia.bsky.social
Euroopa vajab lähinädalatel kiiret edu kolme hiiglasliku ülesandega, märgib RKK direktor Kristi Raik:

- Ukraina positsiooni tugevdamine
- sõja hinna kasvatamine Venemaale
- Trumpi veenmine, et Putini nõudmiste järgimine oleks hävituslik Euroopale ja häbiväärne USA-le.

@kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik: Anchorage sunnib Euroopat käiku vahetama – Diplomaatia
Trumpi ja Putini kohtumise järgne esmamulje oli mõningane kergendus, olgugi et varjutatud iiveldavalt sõbralikust kohtlemisest, mis sõjakurjategijale osaks sai. Vähemalt diile ei tehtud. Ent mida enam...
diplomaatia.ee
August 18, 2025 at 10:20 AM
kristiraik.bsky.social
This piece describes one of the key differences between Putin and Trump:
Putin lies, while knowing exactly the facts and distorting them in a carefully calculated way (e.g. "Russia wants peace" - sure, if all its impossible demands are met). 1/

www.ft.com/content/a701...
‘Manipulative’ Putin vs ‘emotional’ Trump: what past summits reveal about Alaska meeting
Russian leader’s technique is to lie and play for time, warns former French president François Hollande
www.ft.com
August 12, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
Europe has a vital interest in Ukraine's sovereignty and in defending against the Russian threat. Trump must be convinced that pressuring for a bad deal won’t bring peace but will increase the risk of a larger war, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social.

➡️ ERR: news.err.ee/1609767261/k...
August 11, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
Donald Trumpi ja Vladimir Putini planeeritava kohtumise eel seisab Euroopa silmitsi olukorraga, kus kaks suurriiki hakkavad läbi rääkima mitte ainult Ukraina, vaid tõenäoliselt ka laiemalt Euroopa julgeoleku tuleviku üle, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social ERRi portaalis.

www.err.ee/1609766826/k...
Kristi Raik: suurriikide mäng Euroopa saatusega
Kui USA ja Venemaa läbirääkimiste tulemus on see, et Ukrainale esitatakse "võta või jäta" lahendus, siis ei saa selle tingimused kindlasti olema Ukrainale soodsad. Miski ei viita sellele, et Donald Tr...
www.err.ee
August 9, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
Venemaa jaoks on Läänemeri kahtlemata strateegiliselt ülimalt oluline. Pilt on aga viimase 35 aastaga radikaalselt muutunud. Venemaa mõju Läänemere regioonis on nõrgem kui eelneva 300 a jooksul. @kristiraik.bsky.social

🎦 #Arvamusfestival "Kilud vs karud" ülekanne:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=54cb...
August 8, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
The EU’s credibility depends on its ability to raise the cost of war for Russia & secure a European future for Ukraine — ensuring Russia cannot win its brutal war of aggression.

To defend itself, Europe needs Ukraine on its side, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social in a commentary for @tepsa.bsky.social
A More Autonomous Europe Will Need Ukraine On Its Side - ICDS
Under the second Trump administration, US foreign policy – its underlying principles, vision of the global order and relations with both allies and adversaries – is profoundly changing. This implies a...
icds.ee
July 28, 2025 at 1:54 PM
kristiraik.bsky.social
On my usual summer sailing trip, this time including Naissaar, Tallinn, Porkkala, Örö. Traces of past presence of Soviet/Russian army in all of them, with tragic memories behind idyllic scenes.
Can't help thinking when sailing freely around the Baltic Sea that freedom is really worth defending.
July 28, 2025 at 1:59 PM
kristiraik.bsky.social
Europe has become divided between countries that think the NATO Hague commitment to spend 5% (or rather, 3,5%) on defence was about pleasing Trump and therefore don’t want to do it, and countries that believe it is in their own interest to spend 5% (or at least 3,5) and therefore take it seriously.
July 2, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
diplomaatia.bsky.social
Kaitsekulude tõstmine on vajalik Euroopa enda julgeoleku, mitte Trumpile meeldimise pärast.

Töö selle nimel, et kõik Euroopa NATO riigid mõistaksid ühtemoodi, miks ja kui palju on vaja kaitseks panustada, jätkub pärast tippkohtumist. @kristiraik.bsky.social

📺 ERR: www.err.ee/1609729008/r...
June 25, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
📣 ICDS is delighted to be part of the NATO Public Forum as an institutional partner during next week’s NATO Summit in The Hague.

More information about the Forum (and registration to attend online) 👇

#NATOsummit #WeAreNATO @kristiraik.bsky.social
NATO Summit: join the Public Forum online - ICDS
The NATO Public Forum is a public event jointly organized by NATO and the Government of the Netherlands with civil society organisations, taking place during the Summit meetings of NATO’s Heads of Sta...
icds.ee
June 21, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
dgap.org
How to strenghten the 🇪🇺 pillar of #NATO? In their #PolicyBrief, @kristiraik.bsky.social & Marcin Terlikowski give recommendations on 3⃣ different levels:

1⃣ Strategic: More than ever, 🇪🇺 allies need a common strategic approach to the 🇺🇸 – based on the understanding that 🇷🇺 poses a ... /1
June 18, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
diplomaatia.bsky.social
NATO ajaloos on ennegi ette tulnud kriise, kuid mitte selliseid, mida transatlantilised suhted praegu üle elavad.

Eurooplastel tuleb karmis julgeolekukeskkonnas end kokku võtta, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social RKK uudiskirjas. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Lisaks nädalakirjas ⤵
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: NATO tippkohtumine 24.-25. juunil: kaitsekulud ja USA, Iraan ja Venemaa, liberaalne maailmakord, Ukraina õppetunnid – Diplomaatia
Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 25. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.
diplomaatia.ee
June 17, 2025 at 8:54 AM
kristiraik.bsky.social
A good overview of Europe’s agony in managing the transatlantic relationship.
But I find the division to “countries that support so-called strategic autonomy” and “those who believe the transatlantic relationship must be defended at all costs” really problematic - why?👇
www.ft.com/content/e335...
Europe confronts Trump’s triple threat on Ukraine, Nato and trade
Officials fear that the US president will play the big issues off against each other over five weeks of wide-ranging talks
www.ft.com
June 4, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
See also the programme of the Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025 organized by the Japan Chair at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) on 11 June in Tallinn: icds.ee/en/bipf-2025/
The Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025 - ICDS
Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025  The Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025, organized by the Japan Chair at the International Centre for Defence
icds.ee
June 2, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
Russia’s war against Ukraine and the erosion of the rules-based international order have motivated a closer security partnership between Estonia and Japan.

A commentary by @kristiraik.bsky.social
Estonia and Japan: A Strengthening Partnership in A Turbulent World - ICDS
Estonia and Japan may be geographically far apart, but their views on international security and major powers—China, Russia, and the US—have been pushed closer together by the turbulent global environ...
icds.ee
June 2, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
💬 “Major war is raging on the continent for the 4th consecutive year and we, Europeans, together with our allies & partners, have so far failed to give sufficient support to the brave Ukrainians” — @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of the ICDS

🔹 We Shall Go Forward #LennartMeriConference
May 28, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
tepsa.bsky.social
"Here we are in 2025 and geopolitics is back with a vengeance, as is the EU #enlargement file [...] completing the enlargement process successfully is a security and geopolitical necessity"

- @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & TEPSA Board Member, at the #DanishPPC

/28
May 22, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
Major war is raging on the continent for the 4th consecutive year and we, Europeans, together with our allies and partners, have so far failed to give sufficient support to the brave Ukrainians. — @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Opening words of #LennartMeriConference
May 16, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
jennihellstrom.bsky.social
It’s time for Europe to act and rapidly increase defence spending, says @kristiraik.bsky.social at the @suomenpankki.fi @bruegel.bsky.social #EuropeDay panel, led by @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social.

”We cannot afford to neglect our security. The fundament of our wellfare would also erode.”
May 9, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
elisanewby.bsky.social
Our #EuropeDay continues with a superb panel dialogue about economic resilience. @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social, @kristiraik.bsky.social, @heathergrabbe.bsky.social, @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social and Leena Mörttinen discuss how to best handle the current multi-crisis. @suomenpankki.fi @bruegel.bsky.social
May 9, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
While the US-Ukraine mineral deal provides no security guarantees, it deepens Washington’s ties with Kyiv—making full disengagement unlikely.

By not rushing peace, the US is putting Russia under pressure, notes @kristiraik.bsky.social.

➡️ news.err.ee/1609684046/i...
May 5, 2025 at 1:47 PM