Jeff Singer
@jeffsinger.bsky.social
Managing Editor at The Downballot. Email jeffsinger -at- the-downballot -dot- com
Pinned
Jeff Singer
@jeffsinger.bsky.social
· Apr 24
It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
The Downballot's calculations of presidential election results by congressional district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics
Our one-of-a-kind collection spans from 2008 to the present
the-db.co
This took a ton of work, but as Robert Caro says, "It’s not about how long it takes to make. It’s about whether it will endure."
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Most retrospectives of Pelosi’s career focus on her time as leader of the House. At The Downballot, we reach back much further to explain how she *got* to the House in the first place.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
Nancy Pelosi is retiring after a groundbreaking electoral career that, as we detail in our new Morning Digest, almost didn't happen.
Morning Digest: Nancy Pelosi, first woman speaker, retires after historic career
The longtime congresswoman left an indelible mark on San Francisco—and America
www.the-downballot.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Most retrospectives of Pelosi’s career focus on her time as leader of the House. At The Downballot, we reach back much further to explain how she *got* to the House in the first place.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
One of my favorite discoveries while writing this was the New York Times' nondescript headline following Pelosi's first general election win: "DEMOCRAT ELECTED IN SAN FRANCISCO." Her retirement generated far different headlines!
November 7, 2025 at 3:30 PM
One of my favorite discoveries while writing this was the New York Times' nondescript headline following Pelosi's first general election win: "DEMOCRAT ELECTED IN SAN FRANCISCO." Her retirement generated far different headlines!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
For the Netroots community, for everyone who knew @arjunjaikumar.bsky.social when he was a guy posting on DailyKos and SSP as "brownsox" who loved writing about elections, today is a joyous day as he's been elected to the Cambridge School Board with the strong backing of the local teachers' union.
November 6, 2025 at 5:57 PM
For the Netroots community, for everyone who knew @arjunjaikumar.bsky.social when he was a guy posting on DailyKos and SSP as "brownsox" who loved writing about elections, today is a joyous day as he's been elected to the Cambridge School Board with the strong backing of the local teachers' union.
The next time there's an article about how voter registration numbers are an omen for the next election remember: This piece ran two days before New Jersey Democrats pulled off a blowout win.
These 13 N.J. towns saw a surprise surge in Republican voter registrations
Republicans made huge gains in some traditionally Democratic strongholds in New Jersey in recent years. See the list.
www.nj.com
November 5, 2025 at 5:18 PM
The next time there's an article about how voter registration numbers are an omen for the next election remember: This piece ran two days before New Jersey Democrats pulled off a blowout win.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
It wasn't just the marquee races last night: Democrats racked up massive victories across the country and far down the ballot, pretty much everywhere.
We recap *dozens* of elections in today's newsletter—almost a clean sweep for the Dems. Get caught up here!
We recap *dozens* of elections in today's newsletter—almost a clean sweep for the Dems. Get caught up here!
Morning Digest: Voters deliver massive wins to Democrats in rejection of Trump and GOP
From coast to coast, Democrats ran up the score—and ran ahead of the polls
www.the-downballot.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:31 PM
It wasn't just the marquee races last night: Democrats racked up massive victories across the country and far down the ballot, pretty much everywhere.
We recap *dozens* of elections in today's newsletter—almost a clean sweep for the Dems. Get caught up here!
We recap *dozens* of elections in today's newsletter—almost a clean sweep for the Dems. Get caught up here!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Tuned into @the-downballot.com's election night stream for most of the night open.substack.com/live-stream/...
LIVE NOW: Election night live coverage, with The Downballot & Strength In Numbers
David Nir on Substack
open.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Tuned into @the-downballot.com's election night stream for most of the night open.substack.com/live-stream/...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
As data nerds know, MS is one of the worst states for calculating presidential election results by district ... but the indefatigable @jeffsinger.bsky.social & @donnermaps.bsky.social teamed up to get it done for Tuesday's big batch of redistricting-induced specials! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 3, 2025 at 9:05 PM
As data nerds know, MS is one of the worst states for calculating presidential election results by district ... but the indefatigable @jeffsinger.bsky.social & @donnermaps.bsky.social teamed up to get it done for Tuesday's big batch of redistricting-induced specials! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Our Babka prediction contest study guide is now live!
We obsessively track overlooked elections all year so that we can bring you special reports like this one—our guide to the top races of 2025.
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
The Downballot's 2025 election preview
We go way beyond Virginia and New Jersey to spotlight dozens of races nationwide
www.the-downballot.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Our Babka prediction contest study guide is now live!
There is no question I get more than when is the babka contest. The answer is ... now!
It's the most delicious time of the year: The Downballot's annual election prediction contest—aka the babka contest—is back!
Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka!
Good luck, one and all!
Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka!
Good luck, one and all!
Enter The Downballot's 2025 prediction contest, sponsored by GreensBabka.com!
To the victors go the spoils!
www.the-downballot.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:13 PM
There is no question I get more than when is the babka contest. The answer is ... now!
Proud of my favorite "Central Jersey Truther" @mattbooker.bsky.social
I am BEAMING right now, @mattbooker.bsky.social! www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
October 24, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Proud of my favorite "Central Jersey Truther" @mattbooker.bsky.social
Georgia Republican Tim Echols explains his decision to label Democrat Alicia Johnson, who is Black, as a "DEI specialist" by saying: "This is not a dog whistle. This is a whistle. I’m not being shy about it." Echols and Fitz Johnson are up next month for seats on state Public Service Commission.
Why the PSC election next month is an early test for Democratic momentum
Early voting numbers in Democratic strongholds are far outpacing those in GOP-friendly counties, and some Republicans worry about closing the gap by Election Day on Nov. 4.
www.ajc.com
October 24, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Georgia Republican Tim Echols explains his decision to label Democrat Alicia Johnson, who is Black, as a "DEI specialist" by saying: "This is not a dog whistle. This is a whistle. I’m not being shy about it." Echols and Fitz Johnson are up next month for seats on state Public Service Commission.
Yes, Eric Adams said Andrew Cuomo was "a snake and a liar." But he didn't say Cuomo was a BAD snake and a liar!
Eric Adams Will Endorse Andrew Cuomo for Mayor
www.nytimes.com
October 23, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Yes, Eric Adams said Andrew Cuomo was "a snake and a liar." But he didn't say Cuomo was a BAD snake and a liar!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
With John Sununu reemerging, so does this ... memorable musical video Democrats made in 2008 linking him to George W. Bush.
September 3, 2025 at 8:24 PM
With John Sununu reemerging, so does this ... memorable musical video Democrats made in 2008 linking him to George W. Bush.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
The Utah GOP has hit on a new way to repeal anti-gerrymandering rules that they hate: a so-called "indirect" initiative that would tee up a vote by the legislature.
But as @yeargain.bsky.social points out, the laws they're relying on smell pretty unconstitutional.
More in today's Morning Digest →
But as @yeargain.bsky.social points out, the laws they're relying on smell pretty unconstitutional.
More in today's Morning Digest →
Morning Digest, sponsored by FiftyPlusOne: Why the Utah GOP's new ploy to stop fair maps may be unconstitutional
Time is running out before a judge decides which districts to use in 2026
www.the-downballot.com
October 20, 2025 at 3:46 PM
The Utah GOP has hit on a new way to repeal anti-gerrymandering rules that they hate: a so-called "indirect" initiative that would tee up a vote by the legislature.
But as @yeargain.bsky.social points out, the laws they're relying on smell pretty unconstitutional.
More in today's Morning Digest →
But as @yeargain.bsky.social points out, the laws they're relying on smell pretty unconstitutional.
More in today's Morning Digest →
Very excited to see this!
October 9, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Very excited to see this!
Kevin McCarthy told Republicans this summer he wanted to raise $100 million to stop California redistricting. So far he's absolutely *nowhere* near that goal. punchbowl.news/archive/1082...
October 8, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Kevin McCarthy told Republicans this summer he wanted to raise $100 million to stop California redistricting. So far he's absolutely *nowhere* near that goal. punchbowl.news/archive/1082...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
@malcolmkenyatta.bsky.social The Downballot wrote about the PA Supreme Court twice last month!
Morning Digest: Democrats have a wide spending edge in the battle for Pennsylvania's Supreme Court
But the richest man in the state could tip the balance with a single check
www.the-downballot.com
October 7, 2025 at 3:19 PM
@malcolmkenyatta.bsky.social The Downballot wrote about the PA Supreme Court twice last month!
A must read resource for why some states can redraw their maps with ease, and why it's not happening elsewhere.
There's been a lot of confusion about which states could redraw their House maps before the midterms, so we've put together a definitive guide to every state that could actually do so—16 in all.
We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.
We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.
Here's every state that could draw a new congressional map by 2026
Most states can't pass new maps quickly—but those that can favor Republicans
www.the-downballot.com
October 3, 2025 at 3:29 PM
A must read resource for why some states can redraw their maps with ease, and why it's not happening elsewhere.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
My annual PSA: What do you wish people observing Yom Kippur?
It's not a joyous day—it's a day of atonement and fasting. So "Have a happy holiday" is out.
*But* you can wish someone a happy new year (or "shana tova"), since this time of year is closely tied to Rosh Hashanah (the new year).
It's not a joyous day—it's a day of atonement and fasting. So "Have a happy holiday" is out.
*But* you can wish someone a happy new year (or "shana tova"), since this time of year is closely tied to Rosh Hashanah (the new year).
October 1, 2025 at 9:08 PM
My annual PSA: What do you wish people observing Yom Kippur?
It's not a joyous day—it's a day of atonement and fasting. So "Have a happy holiday" is out.
*But* you can wish someone a happy new year (or "shana tova"), since this time of year is closely tied to Rosh Hashanah (the new year).
It's not a joyous day—it's a day of atonement and fasting. So "Have a happy holiday" is out.
*But* you can wish someone a happy new year (or "shana tova"), since this time of year is closely tied to Rosh Hashanah (the new year).
Update: GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who just a month ago dismissed fears about the Medicaid cuts he voted for as "whining and bedwetting," is running for governor of Arizona.
Good thing this guy isn't in a competitive seat and isn't thinking about running statewide ... oh wait, oh wait.
Arizona congressman defends Medicaid cuts after dismissing concerns as 'bedwetting'
Schweikert made the case that the reforms are the fiscally responsible thing to do and will help fix rising health care costs.
www.azcentral.com
September 30, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Update: GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who just a month ago dismissed fears about the Medicaid cuts he voted for as "whining and bedwetting," is running for governor of Arizona.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
A bottom-feeding trash site called @bluedelaware.bsky.social was stealing our work all year. We noticed it today and called them on it. They hastily deleted lots of posts, but @archive.org saved some.
Sample stolen post: web.archive.org/web/20250627...
Ours: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Sample stolen post: web.archive.org/web/20250627...
Ours: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
The Political Report – June 26, 2025
Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old self-identified democratic socialist, overcame massive opposition by New York City’s political establishment to thwart former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’…
web.archive.org
September 30, 2025 at 2:06 AM
A bottom-feeding trash site called @bluedelaware.bsky.social was stealing our work all year. We noticed it today and called them on it. They hastily deleted lots of posts, but @archive.org saved some.
Sample stolen post: web.archive.org/web/20250627...
Ours: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Sample stolen post: web.archive.org/web/20250627...
Ours: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Tired: Donors wasting massive amounts on Kevin McCarthy's "Revenge Tour."
Wired: Donors not bothering to contribute to Kevin McCarthy's quest to stop California redistricting.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Wired: Donors not bothering to contribute to Kevin McCarthy's quest to stop California redistricting.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
September 30, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Tired: Donors wasting massive amounts on Kevin McCarthy's "Revenge Tour."
Wired: Donors not bothering to contribute to Kevin McCarthy's quest to stop California redistricting.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Wired: Donors not bothering to contribute to Kevin McCarthy's quest to stop California redistricting.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
pro tip for any candidate considering running:
if this happens, just make the plunge!
announce!
don't dither!
don't wait!
just fucking announce!
meet the moment!
look at Andy Kim's quick decision to announce his challenge of Bob Menendez as an example!
if this happens, just make the plunge!
announce!
don't dither!
don't wait!
just fucking announce!
meet the moment!
look at Andy Kim's quick decision to announce his challenge of Bob Menendez as an example!
At this point, any Democrat who votes to keep this government open without extracting very serious concessions — RFK’s resignation, ICE rollback, Epstein Files release, etc — will absolutely face a primary challenger who will set fundraising records.
Republicans run the White House, Congress and Supreme Court on the principle that the only role Dems can play is bailing the GOP out from facing the consequences of their own actions.
They expect Dems to clean up after them and save them from voters’ blame, and sadly some Dems want to do just that.
They expect Dems to clean up after them and save them from voters’ blame, and sadly some Dems want to do just that.
September 28, 2025 at 6:54 PM
pro tip for any candidate considering running:
if this happens, just make the plunge!
announce!
don't dither!
don't wait!
just fucking announce!
meet the moment!
look at Andy Kim's quick decision to announce his challenge of Bob Menendez as an example!
if this happens, just make the plunge!
announce!
don't dither!
don't wait!
just fucking announce!
meet the moment!
look at Andy Kim's quick decision to announce his challenge of Bob Menendez as an example!
I asked ChatGPT a political news question, and it cited my own writing back to me.
September 25, 2025 at 1:30 AM
I asked ChatGPT a political news question, and it cited my own writing back to me.
My Trump Isn't Threatening To Cut Off Federal Funding If We Don't Pass a New Gerrymander shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt.
Braun says Trump administration has not threatened state's federal funding over redistricting - Indianapolis Business Journal
Still, Trump administration officials have been pushing Indiana Republicans to call a special session focused on redistricting. Most notably, Vice President J.D. Vance traveled to Indianapolis to spea...
www.ibj.com
September 24, 2025 at 3:04 PM
My Trump Isn't Threatening To Cut Off Federal Funding If We Don't Pass a New Gerrymander shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt.