Javier Enrique Aguilar
@javieraguilar.bsky.social
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
This is one of the most remarkable academic debacles I've ever seen.
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
PubPeer - Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart fail...
There are comments on PubPeer for publication: Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart failure by intracoronary infusion of mesenchymal stem cells: phase 3 randomised clinical trial (P...
pubpeer.com
November 11, 2025 at 1:19 AM
This is one of the most remarkable academic debacles I've ever seen.
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
happy 11th anniversary to this email sent to all staff at the School of Mathematics and Statistics
November 4, 2025 at 2:16 AM
happy 11th anniversary to this email sent to all staff at the School of Mathematics and Statistics
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
I'm looking for a PhD position (PolSci / Sociology / Data Science) starting this autumn or winter: jfsalzmann.com
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
Johann-Friedrich Salzmann
Academic Website, Portfolio, and Contact Information
jfsalzmann.com
October 12, 2025 at 6:19 PM
I'm looking for a PhD position (PolSci / Sociology / Data Science) starting this autumn or winter: jfsalzmann.com
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
This paper is a delight along multiple axes. It describes an Erdős problem that was solved 30 years before Erdős declared it open. arxiv.org/abs/2510.19804
Forbidden Sidon subsets of perfect difference sets, featuring a human-assisted proof
We resolve a $1000 Erdős prize problem, complete with formal verification generated by a large language model.
In over a dozen papers, beginning in 1976 and spanning two decades, Paul Erdős repeated...
arxiv.org
October 25, 2025 at 3:13 PM
This paper is a delight along multiple axes. It describes an Erdős problem that was solved 30 years before Erdős declared it open. arxiv.org/abs/2510.19804
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
Thought of the day: It is somewhat mysterious why Gaussians remain stable under the particle-minimizing flow (i.e. the Wasserstein gradient flow) for so many widely used energies: entropy, Fisher information, quadratic interaction potentials, functionals depending only on mean and covariance,
September 27, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Thought of the day: It is somewhat mysterious why Gaussians remain stable under the particle-minimizing flow (i.e. the Wasserstein gradient flow) for so many widely used energies: entropy, Fisher information, quadratic interaction potentials, functionals depending only on mean and covariance,
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
Do terminal-embedded LLMs have pipe dreams
October 21, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Do terminal-embedded LLMs have pipe dreams
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
A palate cleanser: 'The causal structure of banana'. Robust, simply structured, and convenient. 8/10. The DAG is nice too.
This is the first of three bananadags in Hitchcock (2016) "Conditioning, intervening, and decision".
This is the first of three bananadags in Hitchcock (2016) "Conditioning, intervening, and decision".
October 17, 2025 at 12:04 PM
A palate cleanser: 'The causal structure of banana'. Robust, simply structured, and convenient. 8/10. The DAG is nice too.
This is the first of three bananadags in Hitchcock (2016) "Conditioning, intervening, and decision".
This is the first of three bananadags in Hitchcock (2016) "Conditioning, intervening, and decision".
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
sensational energy here
October 17, 2025 at 9:21 AM
sensational energy here
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
Last year, I had a paper rejected after 18 months with the @amjepi.bsky.social.
It's the first time I've had a paper rejected after being invited for revisions. And the first time I've had a paper sent out to completely new reviewers.
It stung so hard that it's taken me a year to look at again.
It's the first time I've had a paper rejected after being invited for revisions. And the first time I've had a paper sent out to completely new reviewers.
It stung so hard that it's taken me a year to look at again.
Every academic career is built on rejection, but we don’t show it.
CVs list publications, grants & awards, not rejected manuscripts, unfunded proposals, or failures.
But those invisible rejections shape us more than our successes ever do.
👉 catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/fail-bette...
🧵
CVs list publications, grants & awards, not rejected manuscripts, unfunded proposals, or failures.
But those invisible rejections shape us more than our successes ever do.
👉 catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/fail-bette...
🧵
Fail Better: Why Your Rejections Will Shape You More Than Your Publications
The Art of Learning from Rejection
catherineeunicedevries.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Last year, I had a paper rejected after 18 months with the @amjepi.bsky.social.
It's the first time I've had a paper rejected after being invited for revisions. And the first time I've had a paper sent out to completely new reviewers.
It stung so hard that it's taken me a year to look at again.
It's the first time I've had a paper rejected after being invited for revisions. And the first time I've had a paper sent out to completely new reviewers.
It stung so hard that it's taken me a year to look at again.
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
35 years ago, on October 3, 1990, Germany was reunified. Just two months later, voters in the former GDR went to the polls in the first free federal election since the Weimar era. Despite decades of socialist dictatorship, East German voting behavior displayed marked regional differences. Thread🧵
October 3, 2025 at 1:29 PM
35 years ago, on October 3, 1990, Germany was reunified. Just two months later, voters in the former GDR went to the polls in the first free federal election since the Weimar era. Despite decades of socialist dictatorship, East German voting behavior displayed marked regional differences. Thread🧵
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
My Bayesian Data Analysis course at Aalto is starting in 20mins. There are now 375 registered students, but as the course is not compulsory for most, I expect about 230 students to finish it. All the course material is available online at avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A...
Bayesian Data Analysis course
avehtari.github.io
September 1, 2025 at 10:54 AM
My Bayesian Data Analysis course at Aalto is starting in 20mins. There are now 375 registered students, but as the course is not compulsory for most, I expect about 230 students to finish it. All the course material is available online at avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A...
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
hey @lunafazio.bsky.social welcome :)
September 4, 2025 at 7:32 PM
hey @lunafazio.bsky.social welcome :)
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
Javier Enrique Aguilar, David Kohns, Aki Vehtari, Paul-Christian B\"urkner
R2 priors for Grouped Variance Decomposition in High-dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.11833
R2 priors for Grouped Variance Decomposition in High-dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.11833
July 17, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Javier Enrique Aguilar, David Kohns, Aki Vehtari, Paul-Christian B\"urkner
R2 priors for Grouped Variance Decomposition in High-dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.11833
R2 priors for Grouped Variance Decomposition in High-dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.11833
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
Finite mixture models are useful when data comes from multiple latent processes.
BayesFlow allows:
• Approximating the joint posterior of model parameters and mixture indicators
• Inferences for independent and dependent mixtures
• Amortization for fast and accurate estimation
📄 Preprint
💻 Code
BayesFlow allows:
• Approximating the joint posterior of model parameters and mixture indicators
• Inferences for independent and dependent mixtures
• Amortization for fast and accurate estimation
📄 Preprint
💻 Code
February 11, 2025 at 8:48 AM
I was at an event last week and someone said that there should be a social network where you could only join if you have an institutional email from a university 🤣.
July 15, 2025 at 11:04 AM
I was at an event last week and someone said that there should be a social network where you could only join if you have an institutional email from a university 🤣.
Orange cats are the nicest
July 15, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Orange cats are the nicest
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
unsolved millennium prize problems are just evidence that the problems are wrongly priced. if they gradually raise the reward money, eventually the supply and demand will match and a solution will arise. its just economics
July 14, 2025 at 9:46 PM
unsolved millennium prize problems are just evidence that the problems are wrongly priced. if they gradually raise the reward money, eventually the supply and demand will match and a solution will arise. its just economics
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
as my final act of love i'll recommend rejection
July 12, 2025 at 1:19 PM
as my final act of love i'll recommend rejection
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
Javier Enrique Aguilar, Paul-Christian B\"urkner
Dependency-Aware Shrinkage Priors for High Dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.10715
Dependency-Aware Shrinkage Priors for High Dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.10715
May 19, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Javier Enrique Aguilar, Paul-Christian B\"urkner
Dependency-Aware Shrinkage Priors for High Dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.10715
Dependency-Aware Shrinkage Priors for High Dimensional Regression
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.10715
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
StanBio Connect 2025 free online conference May 30 stanbio.org
... Stan in biomedicine including drug discovery and development, bioinformatics, medical devices, health economics, real-world evidence, and decision-making under uncertainty
... Stan in biomedicine including drug discovery and development, bioinformatics, medical devices, health economics, real-world evidence, and decision-making under uncertainty
StanBio Connect 2025 – StanBio
Advancing Biomedical Research with Stan
stanbio.org
May 21, 2025 at 12:43 PM
StanBio Connect 2025 free online conference May 30 stanbio.org
... Stan in biomedicine including drug discovery and development, bioinformatics, medical devices, health economics, real-world evidence, and decision-making under uncertainty
... Stan in biomedicine including drug discovery and development, bioinformatics, medical devices, health economics, real-world evidence, and decision-making under uncertainty
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
2) The next two days will be focused on a topic of current interest in Bayesian analysis. The topic of this edition is "Bayesian modelling with brms". This 12-hour course is provided by Javier Enrique Aguilar (TU Dortmund University, Germany).
March 24, 2025 at 7:08 PM
2) The next two days will be focused on a topic of current interest in Bayesian analysis. The topic of this edition is "Bayesian modelling with brms". This 12-hour course is provided by Javier Enrique Aguilar (TU Dortmund University, Germany).
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
The València International #Bayesian Summer School (#VIBASS 8), a four-day summer school designed to provide an introduction to Bayesian learning, will take place7-10 July 2025 in València, Spain.
Info and registration can be found at vabar.es
Info and registration can be found at vabar.es
VABAR –VAlencia BAyesian Research group
This is the webpage of the VAlencia BAyesian Research group (VABAR). Based at the University of Valencia and heir of prominent Bayesians like Susie Bayarri and Juan Ferrándiz.
vabar.es
March 24, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Reposted by Javier Enrique Aguilar
