Stephen Kirchner
@insteconomics.bsky.social
Economist in Sydney, Australia. Personal account, usual disclaimers. If you like my short form content, you will just love my long form newsletter: https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL
The growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers
Beijing’s GDP figures have drawn scrutiny for years but the questions have become more acute
on.ft.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:32 PM
“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
10 years ago "House of Debt" was published to wide acclaim and became the go-to explainer about the housing boom and financial crisis.
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
November 18, 2025 at 8:29 PM
10 years ago "House of Debt" was published to wide acclaim and became the go-to explainer about the housing boom and financial crisis.
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL
The growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers
Beijing’s GDP figures have drawn scrutiny for years but the questions have become more acute
on.ft.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:32 PM
“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
It’s genuinely good to see a conservative think tank like Hudson advocating for RFA and RFE/RL: www.hudson.org/human-rights...
The Case for Radio Free Asia and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Ensuring Information Access for Closed Societies
Introduction In March 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order aimed at closing the United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM).1 This decision affected Radio Free Asia (RFA) and Rad...
www.hudson.org
November 18, 2025 at 6:57 PM
It’s genuinely good to see a conservative think tank like Hudson advocating for RFA and RFE/RL: www.hudson.org/human-rights...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it.
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
OSF
osf.io
November 18, 2025 at 2:48 AM
The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it.
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it.
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
OSF
osf.io
November 18, 2025 at 2:48 AM
The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it.
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
For thirty years I worked in the post-Soviet successor states in Central Asia and observed over and over again precisely the cycle that Bill Kristol describes. Corruption leads to authoritarianism, directly. The path is utterly predictable.
November 17, 2025 at 12:02 AM
For thirty years I worked in the post-Soviet successor states in Central Asia and observed over and over again precisely the cycle that Bill Kristol describes. Corruption leads to authoritarianism, directly. The path is utterly predictable.
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
In the 1980s, for the average woman, it would have taken 6 years of wages to purchase the average Brighton property.
In 2025, despite radical improvements in gender pay, it would take the average woman nearly 33 years...
In 2025, despite radical improvements in gender pay, it would take the average woman nearly 33 years...
Bayside residents are rallying against plans to introduce buildings up to 16 storeys in the area.
Residents marching in Brighton on Sunday argued the ill-conceived plan would overrun their suburbs’ population without adequate infrastructure or their consent.
Video: Cassandra Morgan and Sophie Boyd
Residents marching in Brighton on Sunday argued the ill-conceived plan would overrun their suburbs’ population without adequate infrastructure or their consent.
Video: Cassandra Morgan and Sophie Boyd
November 16, 2025 at 6:53 AM
In the 1980s, for the average woman, it would have taken 6 years of wages to purchase the average Brighton property.
In 2025, despite radical improvements in gender pay, it would take the average woman nearly 33 years...
In 2025, despite radical improvements in gender pay, it would take the average woman nearly 33 years...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
NIMBYs in Brighton.
This is why housing is unaffordable.
This is why housing is unaffordable.
Bayside residents are rallying against plans to introduce buildings up to 16 storeys in the area.
Residents marching in Brighton on Sunday argued the ill-conceived plan would overrun their suburbs’ population without adequate infrastructure or their consent.
Video: Cassandra Morgan and Sophie Boyd
Residents marching in Brighton on Sunday argued the ill-conceived plan would overrun their suburbs’ population without adequate infrastructure or their consent.
Video: Cassandra Morgan and Sophie Boyd
November 16, 2025 at 7:22 AM
NIMBYs in Brighton.
This is why housing is unaffordable.
This is why housing is unaffordable.
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
If you are an ambitious politician looking for tomorrow's issue to champion, @scottwiener.bsky.social, California's top YIMBY legislator, provides a good model to follow.
1/ If you're interested in housing and the debates within the Democratic party about how much is needed and how to get it built, you need to read this profile of CA NIMBY slayer @scottwiener.bsky.social by @jetjocko.bsky.social.
www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
Scott Wiener Defeated California’s NIMBYs. Can He Fix America’s Housing Crisis?
By running for Nancy Pelosi's seat, he's putting the "Abundance" theory to the test.
www.motherjones.com
November 16, 2025 at 7:25 AM
If you are an ambitious politician looking for tomorrow's issue to champion, @scottwiener.bsky.social, California's top YIMBY legislator, provides a good model to follow.
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
IMF data show US held about SDR 127bn in October, down by 640.8mn, while Argentina’s holdings rose by 640.8mn. Argentina’s central bank balance sheet suggests USD 2.7bn of the USD 20bn currency swap line has been drawn, with a portion being used to make debt payments to the IMF on.ft.com/4qZxUpk
US drew $900mn from IMF account as Argentina debt payment loomed
Buenos Aires’s reserves rose by the same margin as Washington seeks to bolster Javier Milei’s government
on.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:25 PM
IMF data show US held about SDR 127bn in October, down by 640.8mn, while Argentina’s holdings rose by 640.8mn. Argentina’s central bank balance sheet suggests USD 2.7bn of the USD 20bn currency swap line has been drawn, with a portion being used to make debt payments to the IMF on.ft.com/4qZxUpk
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
When the housing stock filters up
November 13, 2025 at 10:14 PM
When the housing stock filters up
When the housing stock filters up
November 13, 2025 at 10:14 PM
When the housing stock filters up
IMF data show US held about SDR 127bn in October, down by 640.8mn, while Argentina’s holdings rose by 640.8mn. Argentina’s central bank balance sheet suggests USD 2.7bn of the USD 20bn currency swap line has been drawn, with a portion being used to make debt payments to the IMF on.ft.com/4qZxUpk
US drew $900mn from IMF account as Argentina debt payment loomed
Buenos Aires’s reserves rose by the same margin as Washington seeks to bolster Javier Milei’s government
on.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:25 PM
IMF data show US held about SDR 127bn in October, down by 640.8mn, while Argentina’s holdings rose by 640.8mn. Argentina’s central bank balance sheet suggests USD 2.7bn of the USD 20bn currency swap line has been drawn, with a portion being used to make debt payments to the IMF on.ft.com/4qZxUpk
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
So much for the AI-powered productivity boom www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
AI-powered nimbyism could grind UK planning system to a halt, experts warn
Tools that help people scan applications and find grounds for objection have potential to hit government’s housebuilding plans
www.theguardian.com
November 12, 2025 at 7:03 PM
So much for the AI-powered productivity boom www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
So much for the AI-powered productivity boom www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
AI-powered nimbyism could grind UK planning system to a halt, experts warn
Tools that help people scan applications and find grounds for objection have potential to hit government’s housebuilding plans
www.theguardian.com
November 12, 2025 at 7:03 PM
So much for the AI-powered productivity boom www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Three German universities offering post-docs for researchers "who cannot conduct or continue their work in the USA appropriately because of actual political pressure. "
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
Early Career Rescue Fellowship
www.uni-konstanz.de
November 11, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Three German universities offering post-docs for researchers "who cannot conduct or continue their work in the USA appropriately because of actual political pressure. "
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
This new affordable housing project in San Jose is going to require public subsidy of one million dollars per unit, and that is *on top of* the rent that the tenants will pay. At these prices, subsidized affordable housing will never get us broad housing affordability. We need to unleash the market.
Affordable San Jose housing project lands key construction financing
An affordable housing development has landed some key chunks of construction financing.
www.eastbaytimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:06 PM
This new affordable housing project in San Jose is going to require public subsidy of one million dollars per unit, and that is *on top of* the rent that the tenants will pay. At these prices, subsidized affordable housing will never get us broad housing affordability. We need to unleash the market.
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Trial balloon for “I respect the Supreme Court, but I can’t obey them.”
November 11, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Trial balloon for “I respect the Supreme Court, but I can’t obey them.”
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Melbourne Institute house price expectations rise to a new cycle high
November 10, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Melbourne Institute house price expectations rise to a new cycle high
Melbourne Institute house price expectations rise to a new cycle high
November 10, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Melbourne Institute house price expectations rise to a new cycle high
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
I’m honoured to be featured alongside some of Australia’s biggest names in wonkdom in the summer issue of Inflection Points.
My paper is the culmination of 4 years work on declining civic participation — and why other researchers into the phenomenon have a blind spot for political parties.
My paper is the culmination of 4 years work on declining civic participation — and why other researchers into the phenomenon have a blind spot for political parties.
November 9, 2025 at 8:47 PM
I’m honoured to be featured alongside some of Australia’s biggest names in wonkdom in the summer issue of Inflection Points.
My paper is the culmination of 4 years work on declining civic participation — and why other researchers into the phenomenon have a blind spot for political parties.
My paper is the culmination of 4 years work on declining civic participation — and why other researchers into the phenomenon have a blind spot for political parties.
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
My new article "Immigration is Not Invasion" is now up on SSRN. It comprehensively explains why illegal migration and drug smuggling do not qualify as "invasion" under the Constitution and the Alien Enemies Act of 1798: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Immigration is Not Invasion
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In recent years, state governments and the second Trump Administration have increasingly advanced the argument that illegal migration and cross-border dr
papers.ssrn.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:42 PM
My new article "Immigration is Not Invasion" is now up on SSRN. It comprehensively explains why illegal migration and drug smuggling do not qualify as "invasion" under the Constitution and the Alien Enemies Act of 1798: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Credible central banks can fight inflation with smaller rate hikes — a "reputation dividend". New research combines theory and bond-market evidence to measure its size, from Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis, Kasper Jørgensen, and Rishabh Kirpalani www.nber.org/papers/w34436
November 8, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Credible central banks can fight inflation with smaller rate hikes — a "reputation dividend". New research combines theory and bond-market evidence to measure its size, from Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis, Kasper Jørgensen, and Rishabh Kirpalani www.nber.org/papers/w34436
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
FRBNY survey of consumer expectations has the mean probability of finding a job in the next three months off the record lows seen in August, but still around pandemic levels
November 7, 2025 at 8:59 PM
FRBNY survey of consumer expectations has the mean probability of finding a job in the next three months off the record lows seen in August, but still around pandemic levels