Stephen Kirchner
@insteconomics.bsky.social
Economist in Sydney, Australia. Personal account, usual disclaimers. If you like my short form content, you will just love my long form newsletter: https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/
Conference Board consumer sentiment the lowest since Trump announced his tariff depredations in April. As the US labour market cracks, we should see a narrowing in the divergence with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
November 25, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Conference Board consumer sentiment the lowest since Trump announced his tariff depredations in April. As the US labour market cracks, we should see a narrowing in the divergence with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
FRB Chicago Economic Conditions Activity Index 6-12 month hiring expectations remain near record lows in November, with capex expectations also still underwater
November 24, 2025 at 10:44 PM
FRB Chicago Economic Conditions Activity Index 6-12 month hiring expectations remain near record lows in November, with capex expectations also still underwater
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey measure of current economic conditions at a record low in November, levels normally associated with major downturns, crisis and plague. Even applying the Cummings and Tedeschi correction for the switch to the online survey only gets you to around 70
November 22, 2025 at 4:54 AM
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey measure of current economic conditions at a record low in November, levels normally associated with major downturns, crisis and plague. Even applying the Cummings and Tedeschi correction for the switch to the online survey only gets you to around 70
When the housing stock filters up
November 13, 2025 at 10:14 PM
When the housing stock filters up
Melbourne Institute house price expectations rise to a new cycle high
November 10, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Melbourne Institute house price expectations rise to a new cycle high
Index of current economic conditions at record lows in November
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Index of current economic conditions at record lows in November
FRBNY survey of consumer expectations has the mean probability of finding a job in the next three months off the record lows seen in August, but still around pandemic levels
November 7, 2025 at 8:59 PM
FRBNY survey of consumer expectations has the mean probability of finding a job in the next three months off the record lows seen in August, but still around pandemic levels
University of Michigan consumer sentiment falls to three year lows, levels normally associated with severe downturns
November 7, 2025 at 8:08 PM
University of Michigan consumer sentiment falls to three year lows, levels normally associated with severe downturns
Richmond Fed Maryland survey of business activity showing a collapse in expectations amid the government shutdown
October 31, 2025 at 12:46 AM
Richmond Fed Maryland survey of business activity showing a collapse in expectations amid the government shutdown
Chicago Fed Economic Conditions Activity Index hiring expectations over next 6-12 months look dire
October 23, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Chicago Fed Economic Conditions Activity Index hiring expectations over next 6-12 months look dire
October 22, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Queue at the Martin Place gold bullion dealer now almost as big as the residual in my gold valuation model
October 14, 2025 at 4:36 AM
Queue at the Martin Place gold bullion dealer now almost as big as the residual in my gold valuation model
2026 is another "fire horse" year. Leo Lewis speculates on the implications for Japanese fertility: www.ft.com/content/ffa1...
There were big dips in births in the previous "fire horse" years of 1906 and 1966, but also some recuperation in the period immediately following.
There were big dips in births in the previous "fire horse" years of 1906 and 1966, but also some recuperation in the period immediately following.
September 25, 2025 at 8:06 AM
2026 is another "fire horse" year. Leo Lewis speculates on the implications for Japanese fertility: www.ft.com/content/ffa1...
There were big dips in births in the previous "fire horse" years of 1906 and 1966, but also some recuperation in the period immediately following.
There were big dips in births in the previous "fire horse" years of 1906 and 1966, but also some recuperation in the period immediately following.
US net employment outlook for Q4 2025 the worst since Q3 2021
September 9, 2025 at 7:06 AM
US net employment outlook for Q4 2025 the worst since Q3 2021
Melbourne Institute house price expectations at 15 year highs
September 9, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Melbourne Institute house price expectations at 15 year highs
FRBNY survey of consumer job finding expectations at their lowest since the series began in 2013
September 8, 2025 at 11:19 PM
FRBNY survey of consumer job finding expectations at their lowest since the series began in 2013
Decomp of August NFP. Three month average for the net change in employment is just 29.3K.
September 5, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Decomp of August NFP. Three month average for the net change in employment is just 29.3K.
Also worth noting USD underperformance against the G10 et al on a YTD basis
September 3, 2025 at 4:28 AM
Also worth noting USD underperformance against the G10 et al on a YTD basis
Bespoke’s roundup of country ETF performance since Inauguration Day showing the US underperforming, including against all its G7 peers www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/...
September 3, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Bespoke’s roundup of country ETF performance since Inauguration Day showing the US underperforming, including against all its G7 peers www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/...
Investors underestimate Donald Trump’s threat to the Federal Reserve. FT survey cites fears that president’s assault has caused long-term damage to the US central bank and economy
on.ft.com/4n6eDj4
on.ft.com/4n6eDj4
September 1, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Investors underestimate Donald Trump’s threat to the Federal Reserve. FT survey cites fears that president’s assault has caused long-term damage to the US central bank and economy
on.ft.com/4n6eDj4
on.ft.com/4n6eDj4
New record highs in Australian house prices in August. Time to update the Big Aussie Short Hoomer Doomer Loser Index with more losing. (To be clear, the index is intended as a critique of supply side denialism) stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/in-defence...
August 31, 2025 at 11:42 PM
New record highs in Australian house prices in August. Time to update the Big Aussie Short Hoomer Doomer Loser Index with more losing. (To be clear, the index is intended as a critique of supply side denialism) stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/in-defence...
Weak expected capex reads in the regional Fed business surveys show how policy uncertainty is weighing on sentiment and business decision-making.
August 28, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Weak expected capex reads in the regional Fed business surveys show how policy uncertainty is weighing on sentiment and business decision-making.
Richmond Fed manufacturing capex expectations rose 4 points to -15 in August, but still at levels normally associated with economic downturns and below pre-'liberation day' levels.
August 27, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Richmond Fed manufacturing capex expectations rose 4 points to -15 in August, but still at levels normally associated with economic downturns and below pre-'liberation day' levels.
Michael Strain on the rise of crony capitalism in the United States www.ft.com/content/2ddb...
August 25, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Michael Strain on the rise of crony capitalism in the United States www.ft.com/content/2ddb...