Gennady Rudkevich
@grudkevich.bsky.social
Economist. Former Assistant Professor of Political Science, focusing on Russia and Central Asia. All views my own.
Curious what happened to all the realists claiming that who leads a country is irrelevant and that all rulers pursue a hardcoded set of national interests.
January 18, 2026 at 3:43 PM
Curious what happened to all the realists claiming that who leads a country is irrelevant and that all rulers pursue a hardcoded set of national interests.
The only thing worse than being a Russian enemy is being a Russian ally. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/w...
Russia’s Fearsome Arsenal Fizzled in Venezuela. Here’s Why.
www.nytimes.com
January 12, 2026 at 11:39 AM
The only thing worse than being a Russian enemy is being a Russian ally. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/w...
Reposted by Gennady Rudkevich
During this time, the Germans managed to reach Moscow and be pushed back to Berlin - and Putin got stuck near Myrnograd.
January 11, 2026 at 12:04 AM
During this time, the Germans managed to reach Moscow and be pushed back to Berlin - and Putin got stuck near Myrnograd.
It's amazing how the same people who had "crypto" in their profiles have suddenly transformed into AI experts. Can't wait for their next transformation.
November 28, 2025 at 1:50 PM
It's amazing how the same people who had "crypto" in their profiles have suddenly transformed into AI experts. Can't wait for their next transformation.
And this is just the tip of the iceberg of recent crimes against humanity in Sudan. news.un.org/en/story/202...
Reported massacre at hospital in Sudan’s El Fasher leaves 460 dead
Horrific stories of mass-atrocities committed by the RSF militia continue to emerge, along with the tens of thousands of civilians who have fled the North Darfur city of El Fasher in Sudan.
news.un.org
October 30, 2025 at 1:51 AM
And this is just the tip of the iceberg of recent crimes against humanity in Sudan. news.un.org/en/story/202...
If Maduro is overthrown, what stops regime loyalists from teaming up with cartels to seize control over chunks of Venezuela? And what would prevent a very violent civil war between various armed groups for control of the drug routes? No new government could assert control over the entire country.
October 24, 2025 at 11:07 PM
If Maduro is overthrown, what stops regime loyalists from teaming up with cartels to seize control over chunks of Venezuela? And what would prevent a very violent civil war between various armed groups for control of the drug routes? No new government could assert control over the entire country.
Since it's that time of the year (when NHL fans have hope for their team based on its preseason performance), I decided to run some correlations between performance in the preseason and the ensuing season. The correlation is 0.08. A perfect correlation is | 1 |.
For the graphically inclined:
For the graphically inclined:
October 1, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Since it's that time of the year (when NHL fans have hope for their team based on its preseason performance), I decided to run some correlations between performance in the preseason and the ensuing season. The correlation is 0.08. A perfect correlation is | 1 |.
For the graphically inclined:
For the graphically inclined:
Important lesson for ruling party elites who believe there's nothing to fear as long as they remain loyal to those in power.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
September 21, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Important lesson for ruling party elites who believe there's nothing to fear as long as they remain loyal to those in power.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
Since Putin is basically acting as if we're still in the 19th century in terms of foreign affairs, it's strange that he doesn't apply a 19th century logic to his current war. Back then, if you wanted to achieve maximalist goals, you needed to occupy the enemy capital.
August 19, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Since Putin is basically acting as if we're still in the 19th century in terms of foreign affairs, it's strange that he doesn't apply a 19th century logic to his current war. Back then, if you wanted to achieve maximalist goals, you needed to occupy the enemy capital.
Nominal GDP (in trillion $):
Sweden: 0.62
Norway: 0.50
Denmark: 0.45
Finland: 0.30
Iceland: 0.04
Total Nordic: 1.91
Russia: 2.08
Sweden: 0.62
Norway: 0.50
Denmark: 0.45
Finland: 0.30
Iceland: 0.04
Total Nordic: 1.91
Russia: 2.08
August 18, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Nominal GDP (in trillion $):
Sweden: 0.62
Norway: 0.50
Denmark: 0.45
Finland: 0.30
Iceland: 0.04
Total Nordic: 1.91
Russia: 2.08
Sweden: 0.62
Norway: 0.50
Denmark: 0.45
Finland: 0.30
Iceland: 0.04
Total Nordic: 1.91
Russia: 2.08
Might as well have promised to attack Estonia instead of Ukraine next time.
August 17, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Might as well have promised to attack Estonia instead of Ukraine next time.
A lot of Russian actions in the past 3.5 years have been pretty predictable, but if you told me that Russia would suffer ~200k fatalities (about 10 times higher than in the Afghan War) and there would be no publish backlash, there's no chance I'd believe you.
August 16, 2025 at 12:24 AM
A lot of Russian actions in the past 3.5 years have been pretty predictable, but if you told me that Russia would suffer ~200k fatalities (about 10 times higher than in the Afghan War) and there would be no publish backlash, there's no chance I'd believe you.
Am I the only one curious how du Plessis, an Afrikaner MMA fighter, has the same last name as the famous French foreign minister, Cardinal Richelieu?
August 15, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Am I the only one curious how du Plessis, an Afrikaner MMA fighter, has the same last name as the famous French foreign minister, Cardinal Richelieu?
Curious if anyone researched how the widespread adoption of first the television and then social media has allowed authoritarian governments to maintain domestic legitimacy through a more effective form of propaganda than what came before. The internet itself was generally too hard to control.
August 13, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Curious if anyone researched how the widespread adoption of first the television and then social media has allowed authoritarian governments to maintain domestic legitimacy through a more effective form of propaganda than what came before. The internet itself was generally too hard to control.
It's interesting how so many of the anti-migrant rioters (in this case, in the UK) have took part in the same crimes they're willing to riot over when committed by migrants. They share a profile with Islamist terrorists in Europe, who tend to have a criminal record.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
August 4, 2025 at 11:37 PM
It's interesting how so many of the anti-migrant rioters (in this case, in the UK) have took part in the same crimes they're willing to riot over when committed by migrants. They share a profile with Islamist terrorists in Europe, who tend to have a criminal record.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Given that the Russian-sponsored far right candidate in France is currently polling at 50% (in a second round match up), I can't imagine how much resources Russia will use to get its candidate into power in 2027. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/e...
Russia Sees France as Its Main Enemy in Europe, French General Says
www.nytimes.com
July 12, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Given that the Russian-sponsored far right candidate in France is currently polling at 50% (in a second round match up), I can't imagine how much resources Russia will use to get its candidate into power in 2027. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/e...
Reposted by Gennady Rudkevich
BRICS Brazil summit declaration condemns Ukraine’s attacks of Russian infrastructure in Bryansk, Voronezh and Kursk regions.
No word of Russian attacks of Ukraine, of course.
As if it is Russia that is a victim of Ukrainian aggressive war of expansion
No word of Russian attacks of Ukraine, of course.
As if it is Russia that is a victim of Ukrainian aggressive war of expansion
July 6, 2025 at 6:20 PM
BRICS Brazil summit declaration condemns Ukraine’s attacks of Russian infrastructure in Bryansk, Voronezh and Kursk regions.
No word of Russian attacks of Ukraine, of course.
As if it is Russia that is a victim of Ukrainian aggressive war of expansion
No word of Russian attacks of Ukraine, of course.
As if it is Russia that is a victim of Ukrainian aggressive war of expansion
After a lengthy intervention in the Syrian civil war, Russia has now seen three of its allies/key military partners (Armenia, Syria, Iran) get attacked in the past 3 years and provided serious assistance to none of them.
June 22, 2025 at 5:41 AM
After a lengthy intervention in the Syrian civil war, Russia has now seen three of its allies/key military partners (Armenia, Syria, Iran) get attacked in the past 3 years and provided serious assistance to none of them.
Let's hope Putin doesn't do anything rash, like shooting missiles at Ukrainian cities, kidnap thousands of Ukrainian children, or try to conquer Ukrainian territory. www.bbc.com/news/article...
Putin will seek revenge for Ukraine drone attack, warns Trump
Trump says a call with the Russian president was a "good conversation" but would not lead to "immediate peace".
www.bbc.com
June 4, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Let's hope Putin doesn't do anything rash, like shooting missiles at Ukrainian cities, kidnap thousands of Ukrainian children, or try to conquer Ukrainian territory. www.bbc.com/news/article...
Even in countries that recently came back from the brink of dictatorship (Poland and South Korea), the parties that enabled the path toward authoritarianism lost at most 10-20% of their previous support. This is in contrast to many communist parties going extinct after the Soviet collapse.
June 2, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Even in countries that recently came back from the brink of dictatorship (Poland and South Korea), the parties that enabled the path toward authoritarianism lost at most 10-20% of their previous support. This is in contrast to many communist parties going extinct after the Soviet collapse.
Any professor that bases academic misconduct reports entirely on an an AI detection tool should themselves be written up for academic misconduct. The false positive rate for these tools is huge. Not to mention that basic decency requires a more thorough investigation. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/17/s...
A New Headache for Honest Students: Proving They Didn’t Use A.I.
www.nytimes.com
May 20, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Any professor that bases academic misconduct reports entirely on an an AI detection tool should themselves be written up for academic misconduct. The false positive rate for these tools is huge. Not to mention that basic decency requires a more thorough investigation. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/17/s...
What a depressing story from every angle. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/w...
East African Housekeepers Face Rape, Assault and Death in Saudi Arabia
East African leaders and Saudi royals are among those profiting off a lucrative, deadly trade in domestic workers.
www.nytimes.com
March 16, 2025 at 5:47 PM
What a depressing story from every angle. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/w...