Gennady Rudkevich
@grudkevich.bsky.social
Economist. Former Assistant Professor of Political Science, focusing on Russia and Central Asia. All views my own.
It's telling that this is a third-tier story for BBC and doesn't even show up on the main NY Times website. May we live in interesting times.
October 12, 2025 at 2:27 PM
It's telling that this is a third-tier story for BBC and doesn't even show up on the main NY Times website. May we live in interesting times.
By contrast, the correlation between an NHL team's point total in the previous season and its point total in the current season is 0.54.
October 1, 2025 at 11:21 PM
By contrast, the correlation between an NHL team's point total in the previous season and its point total in the current season is 0.54.
Since it's that time of the year (when NHL fans have hope for their team based on its preseason performance), I decided to run some correlations between performance in the preseason and the ensuing season. The correlation is 0.08. A perfect correlation is | 1 |.
For the graphically inclined:
For the graphically inclined:
October 1, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Since it's that time of the year (when NHL fans have hope for their team based on its preseason performance), I decided to run some correlations between performance in the preseason and the ensuing season. The correlation is 0.08. A perfect correlation is | 1 |.
For the graphically inclined:
For the graphically inclined:
Important lesson for ruling party elites who believe there's nothing to fear as long as they remain loyal to those in power.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
September 21, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Important lesson for ruling party elites who believe there's nothing to fear as long as they remain loyal to those in power.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
Might as well have promised to attack Estonia instead of Ukraine next time.
August 17, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Might as well have promised to attack Estonia instead of Ukraine next time.
It's interesting how so many of the anti-migrant rioters (in this case, in the UK) have took part in the same crimes they're willing to riot over when committed by migrants. They share a profile with Islamist terrorists in Europe, who tend to have a criminal record.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
August 4, 2025 at 11:37 PM
It's interesting how so many of the anti-migrant rioters (in this case, in the UK) have took part in the same crimes they're willing to riot over when committed by migrants. They share a profile with Islamist terrorists in Europe, who tend to have a criminal record.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
The incumbent party lost more than a third of its votes in France in 2024. The 2022 presidential election was too close to the start of the inflation problem.
As for Canada, the polling summary provides a clear story.
As for Canada, the polling summary provides a clear story.
May 20, 2025 at 11:45 PM
The incumbent party lost more than a third of its votes in France in 2024. The 2022 presidential election was too close to the start of the inflation problem.
As for Canada, the polling summary provides a clear story.
As for Canada, the polling summary provides a clear story.
The left map shows the parts of Germany with the highest percentage of Syrian refugees.
The right map shows public support for the anti-migrant AfD.
Something to keep in mind when reading stories that posit a direct link between refugee numbers and support for the far-right.
The right map shows public support for the anti-migrant AfD.
Something to keep in mind when reading stories that posit a direct link between refugee numbers and support for the far-right.
February 10, 2025 at 10:38 PM
The left map shows the parts of Germany with the highest percentage of Syrian refugees.
The right map shows public support for the anti-migrant AfD.
Something to keep in mind when reading stories that posit a direct link between refugee numbers and support for the far-right.
The right map shows public support for the anti-migrant AfD.
Something to keep in mind when reading stories that posit a direct link between refugee numbers and support for the far-right.
The DeepSeek news about the cost-effectiveness of technology reminds me of the old joke about NASA:
January 28, 2025 at 12:31 AM
The DeepSeek news about the cost-effectiveness of technology reminds me of the old joke about NASA:
Not even one whole day into the new year.
January 1, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Not even one whole day into the new year.
He got more support, but that doesn't compare to the performance of the main opposition party (PP).
December 5, 2024 at 9:18 PM
He got more support, but that doesn't compare to the performance of the main opposition party (PP).
As some people pointed out, I missed non-European Western elections. Added New Zealand and Japan to the countries that had elections and Australia and Canada to the list of upcoming ones. Same anti-incumbency bias.
*the French election wasn't for the top political post
*the French election wasn't for the top political post
November 9, 2024 at 1:28 AM
As some people pointed out, I missed non-European Western elections. Added New Zealand and Japan to the countries that had elections and Australia and Canada to the list of upcoming ones. Same anti-incumbency bias.
*the French election wasn't for the top political post
*the French election wasn't for the top political post
Here are three upcoming elections in Western countries. Compare the incumbent's past performance with their current polling.
As you could see, all three incumbents are headed for major defeat.
(polling numbers from Wikipedia's national polling averages)
As you could see, all three incumbents are headed for major defeat.
(polling numbers from Wikipedia's national polling averages)
November 9, 2024 at 12:58 AM
Here are three upcoming elections in Western countries. Compare the incumbent's past performance with their current polling.
As you could see, all three incumbents are headed for major defeat.
(polling numbers from Wikipedia's national polling averages)
As you could see, all three incumbents are headed for major defeat.
(polling numbers from Wikipedia's national polling averages)
Here's a list of all Western incumbents who faced an election for their top political position since July 2023 (parties that were in power for <2 years are excluded).
Out of 11 incumbents, only 1 (Luxembourg's) saw its vote share increase. Note that the parties spanned the political spectrum.
Out of 11 incumbents, only 1 (Luxembourg's) saw its vote share increase. Note that the parties spanned the political spectrum.
November 9, 2024 at 12:35 AM
Here's a list of all Western incumbents who faced an election for their top political position since July 2023 (parties that were in power for <2 years are excluded).
Out of 11 incumbents, only 1 (Luxembourg's) saw its vote share increase. Note that the parties spanned the political spectrum.
Out of 11 incumbents, only 1 (Luxembourg's) saw its vote share increase. Note that the parties spanned the political spectrum.
Certain Western political scientists: Russians are opposed to NATO and EU expansion due to legitimate security concerns.
Actual Russian arguments:
Actual Russian arguments:
October 20, 2024 at 12:02 PM
Certain Western political scientists: Russians are opposed to NATO and EU expansion due to legitimate security concerns.
Actual Russian arguments:
Actual Russian arguments:
My favorite part of the NY Post article. How dare the police try to punish people for drunk driving?
June 23, 2024 at 8:30 PM
My favorite part of the NY Post article. How dare the police try to punish people for drunk driving?
It's interesting that Putin maintains some level of loyalty toward Prigozhin, even though he likely had Prigozhin assassinated. Reminds me of Stalin's treatment of Kirov.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
June 23, 2024 at 3:58 PM
It's interesting that Putin maintains some level of loyalty toward Prigozhin, even though he likely had Prigozhin assassinated. Reminds me of Stalin's treatment of Kirov.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
The only way Putin's "peace terms" make sense is if Ukraine expects its situation to further deteriorate. A realistic proposal from Putin would have offered a return of some Ukrainian territory. More likely, Putin is doing this to give his supporters a talking point about Russia being peaceful.
June 15, 2024 at 7:56 PM
The only way Putin's "peace terms" make sense is if Ukraine expects its situation to further deteriorate. A realistic proposal from Putin would have offered a return of some Ukrainian territory. More likely, Putin is doing this to give his supporters a talking point about Russia being peaceful.
Russian sock puppet accounts on Twitter are now using AI-generated images to sow racial and religious hatred in the US.
April 21, 2024 at 2:07 PM
Russian sock puppet accounts on Twitter are now using AI-generated images to sow racial and religious hatred in the US.
Here are those 21st century de facto rulers in map form. Note that out of these 15 rulers, 9 border at least one other such ruler.
February 4, 2024 at 4:34 PM
Here are those 21st century de facto rulers in map form. Note that out of these 15 rulers, 9 border at least one other such ruler.
List of de facto rulers who've been in power the entirety of the 21st century. The only change since my last update in 2021 was the "retirement" of Cambodia's Hun Sen (who was formally replaced by his son). Mswati III of Eswatini did face major protests, but managed to cling to power.
February 4, 2024 at 4:26 PM
List of de facto rulers who've been in power the entirety of the 21st century. The only change since my last update in 2021 was the "retirement" of Cambodia's Hun Sen (who was formally replaced by his son). Mswati III of Eswatini did face major protests, but managed to cling to power.
Strange how Russia's war fought, in part, to limit NATO's power is likely to nearly quadruple the size of Russia's borders with NATO.
Russia's border with:
Norway: 122 mi
Poland: 127 mi
Estonia: 202 mi
Latvia: 168 mi
Lithuania: 265 mi
Total: 784 mi
Finland: 790 mi
Ukraine: 1,227 mi
Total: 2,017
Russia's border with:
Norway: 122 mi
Poland: 127 mi
Estonia: 202 mi
Latvia: 168 mi
Lithuania: 265 mi
Total: 784 mi
Finland: 790 mi
Ukraine: 1,227 mi
Total: 2,017
January 26, 2024 at 12:42 AM
Strange how Russia's war fought, in part, to limit NATO's power is likely to nearly quadruple the size of Russia's borders with NATO.
Russia's border with:
Norway: 122 mi
Poland: 127 mi
Estonia: 202 mi
Latvia: 168 mi
Lithuania: 265 mi
Total: 784 mi
Finland: 790 mi
Ukraine: 1,227 mi
Total: 2,017
Russia's border with:
Norway: 122 mi
Poland: 127 mi
Estonia: 202 mi
Latvia: 168 mi
Lithuania: 265 mi
Total: 784 mi
Finland: 790 mi
Ukraine: 1,227 mi
Total: 2,017