There's little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military action in a decade.

A new energy pact between Belgrade and Baku signals a structural shift in the Western Balkans gas map, with Azerbaijan positioning itself to displace Russian supplies in Serbia. Agreements reached by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev envisage higher gas volumes and new power-generation capacity, potentially redefining regional flows. Following talks with Ilham Aliyev in Belgrade, Vučić announced that a joint Serbian-Azerbaijani gas-fired power plant would be built in the Niš area, with commissioning possible in 2029. “We discussed this, today a preliminary agreement (term sheet agreement) is being signed, and we will try in the next two or three months to complete everything so that soon afterwards we can move to the conceptual design and to the construction of the gas power plant in the vicinity of Niš. This construction takes a little more than two years,” he said, as quoted by Tanjug . He added that the project represents “clean energy”, recognised as such by the European Union and three locations are being considered for the power plant – Trupale, Krušce and Niška Banja – with Krušce currently seen as the leading option. Aliyev’s visit comes at a key moment, as Russia’s Gazprom is under U.S. sanctions’ pressure to sell everything in Serbia, abandoning its dominant energy position in the country. Azerbaijan aims to consolidate a more durable presence than Russia through the construction of a large power plant, in which it will directly participate. Ties between Baku and Moscow have deteriorated sharply following the downing of an Azerbaijani aircraft in an incident that sharply raised tensions between the two countries. Azerbaijan leader says he wants Russia to admit it accidentally shot down passenger plane “We are aiming for 500 MW of installed capacity. President Aliyev personally promised to get involved, because they have built – you would not believe – 1,890 MW of gas-fired capacity and completed these facilities in two years. Perhaps people in Azerbaijan do not know, but this is the fastest completion I have heard of,” Vučić said. The agreements and memoranda were exchanged in the presence of both presidents. The document on cooperation in building the plant was exchanged by Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović and Azerbaijan’s Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov. After the first meeting of the Strategic Partnership Council, Vučić said relations between the two countries had a “bright future”. He noted that the rainy day in Serbia was, in Chinese mythology, interpreted as a positive sign for the beginning of something significant. “I hope that despite the bad weather we understand how bright the future is ahead of Serbia and Azerbaijan. I would like to express great respect for the people of Azerbaijan and to you personally, Mr President. I always learn a lot from my conversations with you,” Vučić said, describing Aliyev as an experienced statesman and a genuine national leader. The visit coincided with Serbia’s Statehood Day, and Aliyev was received with full state honours at the Palace of Serbia. The occasion was also used to elevate relations to a strategic level during the first session of the Serbia–Azerbaijan Strategic Partnership Council. Serbian authorities say procedures will be accelerated in the coming months so the project can move into technical design and implementation, based on a joint development model involving Serbian and Azerbaijani companies. Aliyev described the investment in Serbia as one of Azerbaijan’s most significant projects in Europe, linking it to Serbia’s investment reliability and a stable business environment. Gas via Bulgaria The agreements carry wider regional implications, because almost all natural gas delivered to Serbia currently transits through Bulgaria via the interconnector, meaning any increase in Azerbaijani supply would directly raise transit volumes across Bulgarian territory. The understandings between Vučić and Aliyev therefore imply a substantial expansion of Azeri gas flows through Bulgaria. The Caspian gas could gradually replace Russian quantities that have been reaching Serbia via the Balkan Stream (TurkStream) pipeline once European restrictions on Russian gas take full effect. The implications go beyond a single 500 MW project. Azerbaijan is attempting to consolidate its role not only as a supplier but also as an investor in energy infrastructure on Europe’s periphery, while Serbia is trying to reposition itself after the energy crisis triggered by US sanctions affecting Gazprom’s oil refinery operations in the country. Azeri business with the EU Across the Western Balkans and South-East Europe, Azerbaijani gas has gradually expanded beyond its initial Greek market following the launch of the Southern Gas Corridor, which transports Caspian gas from the Shah Deniz field via the South Caucasus Pipeline, TANAP across Turkey and TAP into the EU. Greece and Bulgaria are currently the core Balkan importers, each receiving roughly about 1 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually under long-term contracts, while Serbia began deliveries in 2023 through the Bulgaria–Serbia interconnector and is negotiating higher volumes. Smaller or indirect access exists via regional hubs and swap arrangements affecting North Macedonia and Romania, which can source gas from the same corridor through interconnected systems. Overall, Azerbaijan exports around 12 bcm per year to the European market, and Brussels aims to raise that to at least 20 bcm annually before 2030, positioning the Southern Gas Corridor as the main non-Russian pipeline supply route into south-eastern Europe and a structural alternative to Gazprom in the Balkan gas balance. Caption: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (R) talks with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev (L) during their meeting in Belgrade, Serbia, 15 February 2026. President Aliyev is on an official state visit to Serbia. EPA/ANDREJ CUKIC

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