GPT
@giantsprospects.bsky.social
Posts about the San Francisco Giants. Substack: https://giantsprospects.substack.com
Email: giantsprospectsgpt@gmail.com
Email: giantsprospectsgpt@gmail.com
I’m taking this as they aren’t all that serious about Eldridge in OF. Otherwise one would think they would have given him a heads up earlier in the offseason.
🤖 Shayna Rubin
Bryce Eldridge took fly balls in the corner outfield today, said it was Tony Vitello’s idea to stay ready there given the crowded infield situation. He used Jung Hoo Lee’s glove for now and his mom is shipping his outfield glove to AZ.
Bryce Eldridge took fly balls in the corner outfield today, said it was Tony Vitello’s idea to stay ready there given the crowded infield situation. He used Jung Hoo Lee’s glove for now and his mom is shipping his outfield glove to AZ.
February 11, 2026 at 9:23 PM
I’m taking this as they aren’t all that serious about Eldridge in OF. Otherwise one would think they would have given him a heads up earlier in the offseason.
He’s going to continue to take meatballs for strikes and swing at slop? Cool. These are just words, but this isn’t great.
🤖 Justice delos Santos
Luis Arráez said he doesn't plan to change his offensive approach despite lower numbers in '24 and '25. He added that the concussion he sustained last season affected "everything."
Luis Arráez said he doesn't plan to change his offensive approach despite lower numbers in '24 and '25. He added that the concussion he sustained last season affected "everything."
February 10, 2026 at 8:40 PM
He’s going to continue to take meatballs for strikes and swing at slop? Cool. These are just words, but this isn’t great.
Schmitt looking a lot leaner in the background. I think he’ll be improved at 2B with some range increase.
🤖 SFGiants
Luis Arráez wasted no time getting on the field in the Orange & Black
Luis Arráez wasted no time getting on the field in the Orange & Black
February 10, 2026 at 7:42 PM
Schmitt looking a lot leaner in the background. I think he’ll be improved at 2B with some range increase.
PIT becoming a bit interesting. They could use an upgrade at 3B. Triolo hasn’t done a whole lot with the bat, though defense is quite good. Schmitt is a fit for them. PIT has some SP depth, but not sure who would be a fair target. Maybe Thomas Harrington? Throws strikes with a mediocre mix.
@JeffPassan tweeted
Designated hitter Marcell Ozuna and the Pittsburgh Pirates are in agreement on a one-year, $12 million contract with a mutual option for 2027, sources tell ESPN. The deal will pay Ozuna $10.5M this year with a $16M option that has a $1.5M buyout. @JonHeyman was first on the news.
Designated hitter Marcell Ozuna and the Pittsburgh Pirates are in agreement on a one-year, $12 million contract with a mutual option for 2027, sources tell ESPN. The deal will pay Ozuna $10.5M this year with a $16M option that has a $1.5M buyout. @JonHeyman was first on the news.
February 9, 2026 at 4:49 PM
PIT becoming a bit interesting. They could use an upgrade at 3B. Triolo hasn’t done a whole lot with the bat, though defense is quite good. Schmitt is a fit for them. PIT has some SP depth, but not sure who would be a fair target. Maybe Thomas Harrington? Throws strikes with a mediocre mix.
Relevant today as one might see commentary that doesn’t really get Boston’s motivations for Devers trade.
I would guess that Boston penciled themselves in as coming out ahead on this trade even if they got zero value in the return. The way they see it, they won by getting off the Devers contract, anything else is a bonus.
The Giants' Rafael Devers trade is aging quite well after the Red Sox parted with another one of San Francisco's former assets
February 9, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Relevant today as one might see commentary that doesn’t really get Boston’s motivations for Devers trade.
Putting a “rookie” at third base, that’s a lot of pressure on Borg. He has been in the org as a player and a coach since 2004!
He’s a rookie for a position in the major leagues. But has been in that role at various times in his career, including in LIDOM.
He’s a rookie for a position in the major leagues. But has been in that role at various times in his career, including in LIDOM.
The Giants finally announced Tony Vitello’s coaching staff:
February 6, 2026 at 7:43 PM
Putting a “rookie” at third base, that’s a lot of pressure on Borg. He has been in the org as a player and a coach since 2004!
He’s a rookie for a position in the major leagues. But has been in that role at various times in his career, including in LIDOM.
He’s a rookie for a position in the major leagues. But has been in that role at various times in his career, including in LIDOM.
There are six “countries” with overlap between WBC and 2026 Cricket World Cup. Can you name them? I guessed only 2.
February 6, 2026 at 1:29 AM
There are six “countries” with overlap between WBC and 2026 Cricket World Cup. Can you name them? I guessed only 2.
What was going on in the Giants bullpen in these years…
February 5, 2026 at 2:16 AM
What was going on in the Giants bullpen in these years…
Apologies for the post spam. When I get some time, I will figure out how to group similar transactions like these.
2026-02-04: San Francisco Giants invited non-roster 2B Nate Furman to spring training.
February 4, 2026 at 7:52 PM
Apologies for the post spam. When I get some time, I will figure out how to group similar transactions like these.
I would guess that Boston penciled themselves in as coming out ahead on this trade even if they got zero value in the return. The way they see it, they won by getting off the Devers contract, anything else is a bonus.
The Giants' Rafael Devers trade is aging quite well after the Red Sox parted with another one of San Francisco's former assets
Giants' blockbuster Rafael Devers trade looks even better after Red Sox' Jordan Hicks deal
One of the key pieces the Red Sox received for Rafael Devers is already gone, making the Giants’ blockbuster deal look even stronger in hindsight.
www.nbcsportsbayarea.com
February 3, 2026 at 10:28 PM
I would guess that Boston penciled themselves in as coming out ahead on this trade even if they got zero value in the return. The way they see it, they won by getting off the Devers contract, anything else is a bonus.
Luis Arraez had a double plate approach problem in 2025.
1. 11th highest in baseball in % of pitches taken in the heart of the zone
2. 24th in swinging at pitches in the “Chase” and “Waste” part of the zones
3. Highest % of first pitch called strikes
(Min 2,000 pitches, 132 qualified batters)
1. 11th highest in baseball in % of pitches taken in the heart of the zone
2. 24th in swinging at pitches in the “Chase” and “Waste” part of the zones
3. Highest % of first pitch called strikes
(Min 2,000 pitches, 132 qualified batters)
February 3, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Luis Arraez had a double plate approach problem in 2025.
1. 11th highest in baseball in % of pitches taken in the heart of the zone
2. 24th in swinging at pitches in the “Chase” and “Waste” part of the zones
3. Highest % of first pitch called strikes
(Min 2,000 pitches, 132 qualified batters)
1. 11th highest in baseball in % of pitches taken in the heart of the zone
2. 24th in swinging at pitches in the “Chase” and “Waste” part of the zones
3. Highest % of first pitch called strikes
(Min 2,000 pitches, 132 qualified batters)
So, what do we think the Cardinals wanted from the Giants to top this?
February 3, 2026 at 12:19 AM
So, what do we think the Cardinals wanted from the Giants to top this?
10% better wRC+ translates to about ~0.7 more WAR over 600 PA, holding everything else equal. So for upgrades that Bader and Arraez bring, Giants are adding ~1.5 WAR. Value that at around 12-15M. So Giants are paying another 8-11M on top for lower volatility.
How much better are Bader/Arraez than Gilbert/Jesus Rodriguez?
ZiPS:
Bader - 102
Arraez - 108
Gilbert - 93
Rodriguez - 101
About 10% offensive boost + less volatility. Is that worth 23M? Bader/Gilbert defensively aren’t that far apart. Hard to imagine Rodriguez being worse than Arraez at 2B.
ZiPS:
Bader - 102
Arraez - 108
Gilbert - 93
Rodriguez - 101
About 10% offensive boost + less volatility. Is that worth 23M? Bader/Gilbert defensively aren’t that far apart. Hard to imagine Rodriguez being worse than Arraez at 2B.
February 2, 2026 at 5:38 PM
10% better wRC+ translates to about ~0.7 more WAR over 600 PA, holding everything else equal. So for upgrades that Bader and Arraez bring, Giants are adding ~1.5 WAR. Value that at around 12-15M. So Giants are paying another 8-11M on top for lower volatility.
How much better are Bader/Arraez than Gilbert/Jesus Rodriguez?
ZiPS:
Bader - 102
Arraez - 108
Gilbert - 93
Rodriguez - 101
About 10% offensive boost + less volatility. Is that worth 23M? Bader/Gilbert defensively aren’t that far apart. Hard to imagine Rodriguez being worse than Arraez at 2B.
ZiPS:
Bader - 102
Arraez - 108
Gilbert - 93
Rodriguez - 101
About 10% offensive boost + less volatility. Is that worth 23M? Bader/Gilbert defensively aren’t that far apart. Hard to imagine Rodriguez being worse than Arraez at 2B.
February 2, 2026 at 5:24 PM
How much better are Bader/Arraez than Gilbert/Jesus Rodriguez?
ZiPS:
Bader - 102
Arraez - 108
Gilbert - 93
Rodriguez - 101
About 10% offensive boost + less volatility. Is that worth 23M? Bader/Gilbert defensively aren’t that far apart. Hard to imagine Rodriguez being worse than Arraez at 2B.
ZiPS:
Bader - 102
Arraez - 108
Gilbert - 93
Rodriguez - 101
About 10% offensive boost + less volatility. Is that worth 23M? Bader/Gilbert defensively aren’t that far apart. Hard to imagine Rodriguez being worse than Arraez at 2B.
I would have guessed Brian Bannister was in the Giants org when Hicks signed, but he left to White Sox a few months earlier.
🤖 Jeff Passan
Trade news: The Chicago White Sox are acquiring veteran right-hander Jordan Hicks and right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin in a trade with the Boston Red Sox, sources tell ESPN.
Trade news: The Chicago White Sox are acquiring veteran right-hander Jordan Hicks and right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin in a trade with the Boston Red Sox, sources tell ESPN.
February 1, 2026 at 7:04 PM
I would have guessed Brian Bannister was in the Giants org when Hicks signed, but he left to White Sox a few months earlier.
If Arraez plays everyday at 2B, Giants are pretty much giving up all the positive value they’ve built with the Bader addition and hopeful bounce back from Ramos. If Ramos doesn’t bounce back (-11 to ~ -5 FRV), the defense is likely to be worse overall in 2026 than 2025.
This becomes easier. Assuming Bader plays 500 PA worth in CF, Lee in RF. That’s nearly a win right there with improvements at both. Ramos bouncing back is another half. 1.5 win sandbag against negative outcomes elsewhere.
Giants OF was -15 FRV (positive arm value brings them above the -18 OAA). Getting that to 0 is like adding 1.5-2 team wins. Pretty significant benefit, but also an Herculean task. What Shane Robinson accomplishes could be the difference between a wild card spot and missing out by a game or two.
February 1, 2026 at 4:38 PM
If Arraez plays everyday at 2B, Giants are pretty much giving up all the positive value they’ve built with the Bader addition and hopeful bounce back from Ramos. If Ramos doesn’t bounce back (-11 to ~ -5 FRV), the defense is likely to be worse overall in 2026 than 2025.
I’ve GitHub Actions, to run the workflow to pull transactions, set to 15 mins. But they aren’t really running every 15 mins. I’m guessing this is a bottleneck with GitHub. Not complaining, because it’s free. If anyone has an idea how to improve frequency, please DM.
2026-01-30: San Francisco Giants signed free agent LF Harrison Bader.
January 30, 2026 at 7:54 PM
I’ve GitHub Actions, to run the workflow to pull transactions, set to 15 mins. But they aren’t really running every 15 mins. I’m guessing this is a bottleneck with GitHub. Not complaining, because it’s free. If anyone has an idea how to improve frequency, please DM.
Not sure I get this. Villarroel is a small, contact heavy guy, without much of a position. Sub .300 OBP in High-A as a 20 year old.
Teng isn’t super impressive or a lock for a role this year but he was in the mix for innings to open the season.
Whatever I guess.
Teng isn’t super impressive or a lock for a role this year but he was in the mix for innings to open the season.
Whatever I guess.
Sources: the Astros and Giants are nearing a trade that would send right-hander Kai-Wei Teng to Houston in exchange for catching prospect Jancel Villareal. Teng is an optionable swingman who can pitch out of the rotation or within a bullpen that could use more right-handed depth
January 30, 2026 at 12:38 AM
Not sure I get this. Villarroel is a small, contact heavy guy, without much of a position. Sub .300 OBP in High-A as a 20 year old.
Teng isn’t super impressive or a lock for a role this year but he was in the mix for innings to open the season.
Whatever I guess.
Teng isn’t super impressive or a lock for a role this year but he was in the mix for innings to open the season.
Whatever I guess.
Bot works!
2026-01-22: RF Jerar Encarnacion changed number to 19.
January 29, 2026 at 11:56 PM
Bot works!
Bryce Eldridge has perhaps an outlier low projection with OOPSY (89 wRC+). The BAT has him at 104 wRC+, ZiPS at 100, Steamer at 99.
(None are good enough to be starting at DH for a playoff contender)
(None are good enough to be starting at DH for a playoff contender)
January 29, 2026 at 6:35 PM
Bryce Eldridge has perhaps an outlier low projection with OOPSY (89 wRC+). The BAT has him at 104 wRC+, ZiPS at 100, Steamer at 99.
(None are good enough to be starting at DH for a playoff contender)
(None are good enough to be starting at DH for a playoff contender)
This becomes easier. Assuming Bader plays 500 PA worth in CF, Lee in RF. That’s nearly a win right there with improvements at both. Ramos bouncing back is another half. 1.5 win sandbag against negative outcomes elsewhere.
Giants OF was -15 FRV (positive arm value brings them above the -18 OAA). Getting that to 0 is like adding 1.5-2 team wins. Pretty significant benefit, but also an Herculean task. What Shane Robinson accomplishes could be the difference between a wild card spot and missing out by a game or two.
I know the Giants are hoping that outfield defense, to some degree, can improve through coaching and positioning. The Giants were last in outfield defense with -18 OAA in 2025. If the coaching staff can get them to be just average while returning much of the same group...
January 27, 2026 at 9:31 PM
This becomes easier. Assuming Bader plays 500 PA worth in CF, Lee in RF. That’s nearly a win right there with improvements at both. Ramos bouncing back is another half. 1.5 win sandbag against negative outcomes elsewhere.
Bader is fine. But paying for 90 wRC+ bat with good CF defense is not great for a contending org. Good teams look to upgrade that, Giants are shelling out in FA for it. Indictment of where the org is.
The bottom could fall out on the bat, then you have an expensive defensive replacement.
The bottom could fall out on the bat, then you have an expensive defensive replacement.
January 26, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Bader is fine. But paying for 90 wRC+ bat with good CF defense is not great for a contending org. Good teams look to upgrade that, Giants are shelling out in FA for it. Indictment of where the org is.
The bottom could fall out on the bat, then you have an expensive defensive replacement.
The bottom could fall out on the bat, then you have an expensive defensive replacement.
Not sure if it means anything, but Harrison Bader has struggled against LHP over the last two seasons, ~300 PA. A notable shift from his career.
January 26, 2026 at 5:20 PM
Not sure if it means anything, but Harrison Bader has struggled against LHP over the last two seasons, ~300 PA. A notable shift from his career.
I think either Gonzalez for Abrams or Davidson+Level+Whisenhunt is a “fair” trade. I wouldn’t do the former and probably not the latter, but just how I believe prospects are valued. I wouldn’t do below trade even if Jacob Young was included.
I peg Gonzalez+Davidson+Level+ Bresnahan+Whisenhunt at ~15 WAR in value. Abrams has three years of control left. Might get 9-10 WAR out of him, 12 at high end. So, accounting for $20M/3y, 7-10 surplus WAR. Suggested trade is a major overpay on paper imo. www.nytimes.com/athletic/699...
Giants rebuffed after making aggressive pitch for Nationals' CJ Abrams: Source
www.nytimes.com
January 24, 2026 at 7:22 PM
I think either Gonzalez for Abrams or Davidson+Level+Whisenhunt is a “fair” trade. I wouldn’t do the former and probably not the latter, but just how I believe prospects are valued. I wouldn’t do below trade even if Jacob Young was included.
I peg Gonzalez+Davidson+Level+ Bresnahan+Whisenhunt at ~15 WAR in value. Abrams has three years of control left. Might get 9-10 WAR out of him, 12 at high end. So, accounting for $20M/3y, 7-10 surplus WAR. Suggested trade is a major overpay on paper imo. www.nytimes.com/athletic/699...
Giants rebuffed after making aggressive pitch for Nationals' CJ Abrams: Source
www.nytimes.com
January 24, 2026 at 2:10 AM
I peg Gonzalez+Davidson+Level+ Bresnahan+Whisenhunt at ~15 WAR in value. Abrams has three years of control left. Might get 9-10 WAR out of him, 12 at high end. So, accounting for $20M/3y, 7-10 surplus WAR. Suggested trade is a major overpay on paper imo. www.nytimes.com/athletic/699...