Ian W
@fplstrategic.bsky.social
Here to chat FPL, analytics, visualizations, and the occasion other thing. 🇨🇦
Will make jokes on a lot of things.
Provide weekly (most of the time) rundowns of a variety of team xG/G prediction models.
https://fplstrategic.substack.com/
Will make jokes on a lot of things.
Provide weekly (most of the time) rundowns of a variety of team xG/G prediction models.
https://fplstrategic.substack.com/
Hindsight says non-Haaland cap was viable, but Salah didn't do anything. Score wasn't amazing, but a jump of to 2200k for now. Largely helped by inadvertently picking 15 players with a Saturday game. Have to hope the 3-4 remaining players everyone else have don't catch my score.
November 23, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Hindsight says non-Haaland cap was viable, but Salah didn't do anything. Score wasn't amazing, but a jump of to 2200k for now. Largely helped by inadvertently picking 15 players with a Saturday game. Have to hope the 3-4 remaining players everyone else have don't catch my score.
Wildcard complete. Also folks you want but they never all fit.
Main goal was to get Salah for this run and ship him around AFCON. Ended up a bit further on the "risk" side choosing to sell some of the higher owned players. With transfers to use by GW15 and a fresh 5 in 16, lots of options to pivot.
Main goal was to get Salah for this run and ship him around AFCON. Ended up a bit further on the "risk" side choosing to sell some of the higher owned players. With transfers to use by GW15 and a fresh 5 in 16, lots of options to pivot.
November 22, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Wildcard complete. Also folks you want but they never all fit.
Main goal was to get Salah for this run and ship him around AFCON. Ended up a bit further on the "risk" side choosing to sell some of the higher owned players. With transfers to use by GW15 and a fresh 5 in 16, lots of options to pivot.
Main goal was to get Salah for this run and ship him around AFCON. Ended up a bit further on the "risk" side choosing to sell some of the higher owned players. With transfers to use by GW15 and a fresh 5 in 16, lots of options to pivot.
Always 0.1 off the WC you want, aren't you. Maybe I should have been more on top of price changes.
November 21, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Always 0.1 off the WC you want, aren't you. Maybe I should have been more on top of price changes.
Great pod. Interesting insight into James' thought process and a great preview of what the site can do by someone who built it.
📺 Gameweek 12 - James' Wildcard
@pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social are joined by @trout-post.com, CTO of Solio Analytics, to discuss some recent Solio features, planning with risk, and James's chip strategy and wildcard draft (he has all his chips left!)
youtu.be/Ic-JVdnwQGg
@pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social are joined by @trout-post.com, CTO of Solio Analytics, to discuss some recent Solio features, planning with risk, and James's chip strategy and wildcard draft (he has all his chips left!)
youtu.be/Ic-JVdnwQGg
FPL Gameweek 12 - James' Wildcard
YouTube video by Solio Analytics
youtu.be
November 21, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Great pod. Interesting insight into James' thought process and a great preview of what the site can do by someone who built it.
Highlighting things that are changing based on only two data points is never telling the full story. I don't have all the data, but based on what I have, I looked at this over the last 5 years.
November 20, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Highlighting things that are changing based on only two data points is never telling the full story. I don't have all the data, but based on what I have, I looked at this over the last 5 years.
I've been looking at keeper point predictions for the next 10 and 15 GWs. These are based on my team strength model and a simple save prediction model I created (I have low confidence in the save model).
(1/4)
#FPLCharts
(1/4)
#FPLCharts
November 16, 2025 at 7:34 PM
I've been looking at keeper point predictions for the next 10 and 15 GWs. These are based on my team strength model and a simple save prediction model I created (I have low confidence in the save model).
(1/4)
#FPLCharts
(1/4)
#FPLCharts
Looking at going Haaland and Salah for the next couple weeks. Now are Salah and Sarr are on exactly same xG this season. The last doesn't equal the future, but it makes you think.
November 13, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Looking at going Haaland and Salah for the next couple weeks. Now are Salah and Sarr are on exactly same xG this season. The last doesn't equal the future, but it makes you think.
Bench boost active!
Not ideal with 2 defenders playing two of my attackers, but could be one of the highest predicted bench scores remaining for me. EV of 13.1. probably would have given more though to starting Guehi if I wasn't on Bench Boost.
Not ideal with 2 defenders playing two of my attackers, but could be one of the highest predicted bench scores remaining for me. EV of 13.1. probably would have given more though to starting Guehi if I wasn't on Bench Boost.
November 8, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Bench boost active!
Not ideal with 2 defenders playing two of my attackers, but could be one of the highest predicted bench scores remaining for me. EV of 13.1. probably would have given more though to starting Guehi if I wasn't on Bench Boost.
Not ideal with 2 defenders playing two of my attackers, but could be one of the highest predicted bench scores remaining for me. EV of 13.1. probably would have given more though to starting Guehi if I wasn't on Bench Boost.
Woltemade or Thiago?
November 8, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Woltemade or Thiago?
MCI vs LIV is on this weekend. General opinion is that both MCI and LIV defense are tough opponents, but is there truth to that? My model has this as MCI’s 22nd most difficult fixture and LIV as 32nd.
November 5, 2025 at 7:10 PM
MCI vs LIV is on this weekend. General opinion is that both MCI and LIV defense are tough opponents, but is there truth to that? My model has this as MCI’s 22nd most difficult fixture and LIV as 32nd.
Reposted by Ian W
Haaland with 13 goals in 10 league matches. Absolute dominance. Pep may want others to step up considering that City's 2nd leading scorer is a defender for Burnley.
November 3, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Haaland with 13 goals in 10 league matches. Absolute dominance. Pep may want others to step up considering that City's 2nd leading scorer is a defender for Burnley.
Plan was sell Mbeumo this week for Saka and keep Bruno. But now the questions are:
Is Bruno still the one to keep?
Is Saka the one to get?
I ~think~ the answers are both "yes" but still need to look at it a bit.
Thoughts?
Is Bruno still the one to keep?
Is Saka the one to get?
I ~think~ the answers are both "yes" but still need to look at it a bit.
Thoughts?
Which #FPL midfielders have stood out for attacking threat (xGI/90) and DEFCON potential (CBITR/90) over the first 9GW?👇
October 28, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Plan was sell Mbeumo this week for Saka and keep Bruno. But now the questions are:
Is Bruno still the one to keep?
Is Saka the one to get?
I ~think~ the answers are both "yes" but still need to look at it a bit.
Thoughts?
Is Bruno still the one to keep?
Is Saka the one to get?
I ~think~ the answers are both "yes" but still need to look at it a bit.
Thoughts?
I do not expect this to last so I'm posting it mid gameweek.
October 25, 2025 at 11:31 PM
I do not expect this to last so I'm posting it mid gameweek.
Last minute team finalization was started 5 minutes too late. Probably would have settled on Haaland cap, but had it on Bruno at the deadline. Time to jump rank one way or the other.
October 24, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Last minute team finalization was started 5 minutes too late. Probably would have settled on Haaland cap, but had it on Bruno at the deadline. Time to jump rank one way or the other.
My dilemma this week, start 2:
- Damsgaard (vs LIV)
- Estéve (at WOL)
- Mateta (at ARS)
- Strand Larsen (vs BUR)
- Damsgaard (vs LIV)
- Estéve (at WOL)
- Mateta (at ARS)
- Strand Larsen (vs BUR)
October 24, 2025 at 12:50 PM
My dilemma this week, start 2:
- Damsgaard (vs LIV)
- Estéve (at WOL)
- Mateta (at ARS)
- Strand Larsen (vs BUR)
- Damsgaard (vs LIV)
- Estéve (at WOL)
- Mateta (at ARS)
- Strand Larsen (vs BUR)
When you are having a great season thanks to luck and not your own skill, it is important to hold off playing chips to avoid shooting yourself on the foot.
October 22, 2025 at 3:46 AM
When you are having a great season thanks to luck and not your own skill, it is important to hold off playing chips to avoid shooting yourself on the foot.
Two (!) articles just posted.
The usual look at the predicted team xG/G for GW8, with a special appearance of GW7 results.
The other brief revisiting of stopping problems in math to optimize your bench boost.
The usual look at the predicted team xG/G for GW8, with a special appearance of GW7 results.
The other brief revisiting of stopping problems in math to optimize your bench boost.
October 18, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Two (!) articles just posted.
The usual look at the predicted team xG/G for GW8, with a special appearance of GW7 results.
The other brief revisiting of stopping problems in math to optimize your bench boost.
The usual look at the predicted team xG/G for GW8, with a special appearance of GW7 results.
The other brief revisiting of stopping problems in math to optimize your bench boost.
I was so close to shipping Haaland for Isak this week. Enough halfhearted arguments can be made if you both look hard enough and don't think about it too much. Logic has prevailed but I'm going to be annoyed if Isak outscores Haaland over the next 4.
October 18, 2025 at 7:43 AM
I was so close to shipping Haaland for Isak this week. Enough halfhearted arguments can be made if you both look hard enough and don't think about it too much. Logic has prevailed but I'm going to be annoyed if Isak outscores Haaland over the next 4.
Aside from the "was it a bad choice" discussion, such bad luck that
a) Bruno didn't score that top bin shot
b) the rebound wasn't put in
c) he only got 11 DefCons
a) Bruno didn't score that top bin shot
b) the rebound wasn't put in
c) he only got 11 DefCons
Who else is on Bruno captain?
October 5, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Aside from the "was it a bad choice" discussion, such bad luck that
a) Bruno didn't score that top bin shot
b) the rebound wasn't put in
c) he only got 11 DefCons
a) Bruno didn't score that top bin shot
b) the rebound wasn't put in
c) he only got 11 DefCons
Who else is on Bruno captain?
October 3, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Who else is on Bruno captain?
Bruno penalty miss + penalty save for my bench keeper vs a Bruno goal and Mbeumo assist is a bit of a swing in my team.
September 28, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Bruno penalty miss + penalty save for my bench keeper vs a Bruno goal and Mbeumo assist is a bit of a swing in my team.
A couple days ago, we lost a great person. While I did not know him well, we had a connection and I enjoyed the time I spent with him. It is sad to see him go and think about the hole he will leave in his community. I thank him for his time and energy and will remember the impact he had.
September 26, 2025 at 3:59 PM
A couple days ago, we lost a great person. While I did not know him well, we had a connection and I enjoyed the time I spent with him. It is sad to see him go and think about the hole he will leave in his community. I thank him for his time and energy and will remember the impact he had.
I have worked to distance my mood from my FPL results and have been relatively successful. However, today I seem to be in a random good mood after 3 great FPL weeks. I'm not sure if I should be glad I get joy from my hobby or worried my mood is tied to FPL outcomes.
September 21, 2025 at 10:54 PM
I have worked to distance my mood from my FPL results and have been relatively successful. However, today I seem to be in a random good mood after 3 great FPL weeks. I'm not sure if I should be glad I get joy from my hobby or worried my mood is tied to FPL outcomes.
Total non-penalty xG for Premier League teams after GW4. Also, values for a 'what if' 21 team Premier League where Haaland is a team by himself and MCI does not have him.
September 19, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Total non-penalty xG for Premier League teams after GW4. Also, values for a 'what if' 21 team Premier League where Haaland is a team by himself and MCI does not have him.