Ian W
fplstrategic.bsky.social
Ian W
@fplstrategic.bsky.social
Here to chat FPL, analytics, visualizations, and the occasion other thing. 🇨🇦
Will make jokes on a lot of things.
Provide weekly (most of the time) rundowns of a variety of team xG/G prediction models.
https://fplstrategic.substack.com/
Yeah, plan was to try a cheeky Salah for a couple weeks. Already had Szoboszlai and added Allison to rotate. Amazing start to the olan 😂
November 23, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Similar place as you, went triple LIV, triple CRY, 0 ARS
November 22, 2025 at 9:00 AM
That was my thought, too. Although it did look like Anderson played most weeks with Thaigo and Minte rotating. I'm currently looking at a version with Alisson and Sarr (over Bruno). A little more risky for EO, though.
November 21, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Overall, it is interesting to show the change in how goals are scored, but the article feels more about forming a data around a narrative instead of actually looking at the trends and causes.
November 20, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Also worth looking at home/away. 2023/24 saw a jump in the number of away goals with a decline in home gomes following in 2024/25. 11 GWs of data this year shows a massive drop off in away goals. Is there something in that? Are set piece goals a similar proportion for home and away teams?
November 20, 2025 at 9:36 PM
In the last 5 years goals per game have increased to a peak in 2023/24 and then back down. To 2021/22 levels. But the 2025/26 rates are generally in line with 2018/19 though 2021/22 rates. The story is more of a return from a spike in goals.
November 20, 2025 at 9:36 PM
3. BHA+NEW: Not ideal over the next 2 or 3, but good long term after that.
4. BOU+BRE: One of the best until GW15. Not ideal GW18-26, so pretty short term.
November 19, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Top rotation pair consideration:
1. BOU+NEW: 6th best pair, good value. Mostly BOU playing at the start, NEW GW15 & GW18.
2. LIV+BOU: 3rd best. Ideally have Alisson for GW13, but only marginally better. Need him by GW16.
November 19, 2025 at 5:39 PM
BHA: Have been consistent. Have had the hardest fixture run and performed better than predictions. Basically slightly worse than BOU every week until GW18.
BRE: Had a tough fixture run and performed better than expected. Good fixture in GW13, so a good rotation partner. Higher short term upside.
November 19, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Teams I'm considering for WC GK.
BOU: Home looks good, away is iffy. Have a high number of saves (not sure if this prediction is accurate).
NEW: Not sure they are outstanding, but some good fixtures
LIV: Have performed slightly worse than predictions. Still a stronger defence, fixtures are good.
November 19, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Lol, I just say a post that says Semenyo may be injured, might have one less decision to make 😂.
Let me look a little more and give you a good recommendation
November 17, 2025 at 5:19 PM
I'm 95% WCing this week. If I do, my plan is to go Salah and Haaland. My two options would be keeping or selling Semenyo. If I keep I would go budget pair (BOU & NEW or NEW & BHA). If I sell I have more budget so I may keep Raya and maybe rotate. Still need to look more at long term rotation.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Final disclaimer:
I am happy using my own player model for team goal predictions and I'm happy for you to do so as well. The save mode is very basic and based on 11 GWs of data this week. Please take at least 2 minutes to see if you agree with the predictions before you rely on them.
(4/4)
November 16, 2025 at 7:34 PM
If you want to look at rotating keepers, these are the projected best combinations. I've assumed the top keeper starts every week and plotted average GW points by combined price. Same projections as before but only over TEN GWs (GW12-21). First team listed starts in 5 or more of the fixtures.
(3/4)
November 16, 2025 at 7:34 PM
First up is predictions for each team, sorted by price.
These show the average points per game as a set and forget keeper for GW12-GW26. Excludes: bonus, cards, pen saves, attacking returns, and other point sources. I've used Alisson's price for LIV and assume 90 minutes for all keepers.
(2/4)
November 16, 2025 at 7:34 PM
I see some logic with adding more detergent, but certainly not ideal.
November 12, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Thanks. I also realize I just more detergent so I may experiment with reducing that as well (one at a time, for science reasons, though)
November 12, 2025 at 2:43 AM
I've been following your advice for a long time with great success. Finally looked at my manual for recommended detergent dosing and realized the manufacturer recommends NO detergent in the prewash. It still has a little divot to put the prewash detergent in. Thoughts?
November 11, 2025 at 6:59 PM