Ian W
@fplstrategic.bsky.social
Here to chat FPL, analytics, visualizations, and the occasion other thing. 🇨🇦
Will make jokes on a lot of things.
Provide weekly (most of the time) rundowns of a variety of team xG/G prediction models.
https://fplstrategic.substack.com/
Will make jokes on a lot of things.
Provide weekly (most of the time) rundowns of a variety of team xG/G prediction models.
https://fplstrategic.substack.com/
Hindsight says non-Haaland cap was viable, but Salah didn't do anything. Score wasn't amazing, but a jump of to 2200k for now. Largely helped by inadvertently picking 15 players with a Saturday game. Have to hope the 3-4 remaining players everyone else have don't catch my score.
November 23, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Hindsight says non-Haaland cap was viable, but Salah didn't do anything. Score wasn't amazing, but a jump of to 2200k for now. Largely helped by inadvertently picking 15 players with a Saturday game. Have to hope the 3-4 remaining players everyone else have don't catch my score.
Wildcard complete. Also folks you want but they never all fit.
Main goal was to get Salah for this run and ship him around AFCON. Ended up a bit further on the "risk" side choosing to sell some of the higher owned players. With transfers to use by GW15 and a fresh 5 in 16, lots of options to pivot.
Main goal was to get Salah for this run and ship him around AFCON. Ended up a bit further on the "risk" side choosing to sell some of the higher owned players. With transfers to use by GW15 and a fresh 5 in 16, lots of options to pivot.
November 22, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Wildcard complete. Also folks you want but they never all fit.
Main goal was to get Salah for this run and ship him around AFCON. Ended up a bit further on the "risk" side choosing to sell some of the higher owned players. With transfers to use by GW15 and a fresh 5 in 16, lots of options to pivot.
Main goal was to get Salah for this run and ship him around AFCON. Ended up a bit further on the "risk" side choosing to sell some of the higher owned players. With transfers to use by GW15 and a fresh 5 in 16, lots of options to pivot.
Always 0.1 off the WC you want, aren't you. Maybe I should have been more on top of price changes.
November 21, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Always 0.1 off the WC you want, aren't you. Maybe I should have been more on top of price changes.
Also worth looking at home/away. 2023/24 saw a jump in the number of away goals with a decline in home gomes following in 2024/25. 11 GWs of data this year shows a massive drop off in away goals. Is there something in that? Are set piece goals a similar proportion for home and away teams?
November 20, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Also worth looking at home/away. 2023/24 saw a jump in the number of away goals with a decline in home gomes following in 2024/25. 11 GWs of data this year shows a massive drop off in away goals. Is there something in that? Are set piece goals a similar proportion for home and away teams?
In the last 5 years goals per game have increased to a peak in 2023/24 and then back down. To 2021/22 levels. But the 2025/26 rates are generally in line with 2018/19 though 2021/22 rates. The story is more of a return from a spike in goals.
November 20, 2025 at 9:36 PM
In the last 5 years goals per game have increased to a peak in 2023/24 and then back down. To 2021/22 levels. But the 2025/26 rates are generally in line with 2018/19 though 2021/22 rates. The story is more of a return from a spike in goals.
If you want to look at rotating keepers, these are the projected best combinations. I've assumed the top keeper starts every week and plotted average GW points by combined price. Same projections as before but only over TEN GWs (GW12-21). First team listed starts in 5 or more of the fixtures.
(3/4)
(3/4)
November 16, 2025 at 7:34 PM
If you want to look at rotating keepers, these are the projected best combinations. I've assumed the top keeper starts every week and plotted average GW points by combined price. Same projections as before but only over TEN GWs (GW12-21). First team listed starts in 5 or more of the fixtures.
(3/4)
(3/4)
First up is predictions for each team, sorted by price.
These show the average points per game as a set and forget keeper for GW12-GW26. Excludes: bonus, cards, pen saves, attacking returns, and other point sources. I've used Alisson's price for LIV and assume 90 minutes for all keepers.
(2/4)
These show the average points per game as a set and forget keeper for GW12-GW26. Excludes: bonus, cards, pen saves, attacking returns, and other point sources. I've used Alisson's price for LIV and assume 90 minutes for all keepers.
(2/4)
November 16, 2025 at 7:34 PM
First up is predictions for each team, sorted by price.
These show the average points per game as a set and forget keeper for GW12-GW26. Excludes: bonus, cards, pen saves, attacking returns, and other point sources. I've used Alisson's price for LIV and assume 90 minutes for all keepers.
(2/4)
These show the average points per game as a set and forget keeper for GW12-GW26. Excludes: bonus, cards, pen saves, attacking returns, and other point sources. I've used Alisson's price for LIV and assume 90 minutes for all keepers.
(2/4)
I've been following your advice for a long time with great success. Finally looked at my manual for recommended detergent dosing and realized the manufacturer recommends NO detergent in the prewash. It still has a little divot to put the prewash detergent in. Thoughts?
November 11, 2025 at 6:59 PM
I've been following your advice for a long time with great success. Finally looked at my manual for recommended detergent dosing and realized the manufacturer recommends NO detergent in the prewash. It still has a little divot to put the prewash detergent in. Thoughts?
Bench boost active!
Not ideal with 2 defenders playing two of my attackers, but could be one of the highest predicted bench scores remaining for me. EV of 13.1. probably would have given more though to starting Guehi if I wasn't on Bench Boost.
Not ideal with 2 defenders playing two of my attackers, but could be one of the highest predicted bench scores remaining for me. EV of 13.1. probably would have given more though to starting Guehi if I wasn't on Bench Boost.
November 8, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Bench boost active!
Not ideal with 2 defenders playing two of my attackers, but could be one of the highest predicted bench scores remaining for me. EV of 13.1. probably would have given more though to starting Guehi if I wasn't on Bench Boost.
Not ideal with 2 defenders playing two of my attackers, but could be one of the highest predicted bench scores remaining for me. EV of 13.1. probably would have given more though to starting Guehi if I wasn't on Bench Boost.
MCI (home) had a run as the top defense in the Premier League, but that has not been true for a year. LIV have been fluctuating, but currently dropping from their high near the end of last season. In summary, a tough fixture for both, but not as tough as it has been historically.
#FPLGraphics
#FPLGraphics
November 5, 2025 at 7:10 PM
MCI (home) had a run as the top defense in the Premier League, but that has not been true for a year. LIV have been fluctuating, but currently dropping from their high near the end of last season. In summary, a tough fixture for both, but not as tough as it has been historically.
#FPLGraphics
#FPLGraphics
I do not expect this to last so I'm posting it mid gameweek.
October 25, 2025 at 11:31 PM
I do not expect this to last so I'm posting it mid gameweek.
When you are having a great season thanks to luck and not your own skill, it is important to hold off playing chips to avoid shooting yourself on the foot.
October 22, 2025 at 3:46 AM
When you are having a great season thanks to luck and not your own skill, it is important to hold off playing chips to avoid shooting yourself on the foot.
Total non-penalty xG for Premier League teams after GW4. Also, values for a 'what if' 21 team Premier League where Haaland is a team by himself and MCI does not have him.
September 19, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Total non-penalty xG for Premier League teams after GW4. Also, values for a 'what if' 21 team Premier League where Haaland is a team by himself and MCI does not have him.
The good news is that green arrows are now easier to get.
The bad news is I found another bug with the PL/FPL app.
The bad news is I found another bug with the PL/FPL app.
September 1, 2025 at 1:22 AM
The good news is that green arrows are now easier to get.
The bad news is I found another bug with the PL/FPL app.
The bad news is I found another bug with the PL/FPL app.
This is me for GW1. An odd mix of safe and extremely unsafe. Not excited for day 1.
August 15, 2025 at 5:57 PM
This is me for GW1. An odd mix of safe and extremely unsafe. Not excited for day 1.
Sure it might be nearly too late, but here is my preseason buy/sell/hold chart. The thresholds are based on my season long projections:
If the next ~5 fixtures are:
-Higher than the season average -> Buy
-Roughly average -> Hold
-Lower than the average -> Sell
Also shows GW predictions vs average
If the next ~5 fixtures are:
-Higher than the season average -> Buy
-Roughly average -> Hold
-Lower than the average -> Sell
Also shows GW predictions vs average
August 15, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Sure it might be nearly too late, but here is my preseason buy/sell/hold chart. The thresholds are based on my season long projections:
If the next ~5 fixtures are:
-Higher than the season average -> Buy
-Roughly average -> Hold
-Lower than the average -> Sell
Also shows GW predictions vs average
If the next ~5 fixtures are:
-Higher than the season average -> Buy
-Roughly average -> Hold
-Lower than the average -> Sell
Also shows GW predictions vs average
Not to brag, but I'm a self identified FPL Expert 😏
June 10, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Not to brag, but I'm a self identified FPL Expert 😏
While my FPL season was more about the journey than the destination, I enjoyed playing the first full season of FPL Challenge. Following consistency, deserved luck, and blind luck, I ended up in a pretty good spot. Joint 42 Overall and being the Canadian champion. 🇨🇦
May 26, 2025 at 12:14 AM
While my FPL season was more about the journey than the destination, I enjoyed playing the first full season of FPL Challenge. Following consistency, deserved luck, and blind luck, I ended up in a pretty good spot. Joint 42 Overall and being the Canadian champion. 🇨🇦
Resounding BB success.
Smith Rowe and Semenyo -> Murphy and Rogers. Then did Van Hecke -> Livramento and Murillo to the Bench for BB.
Smith Rowe and Semenyo -> Murphy and Rogers. Then did Van Hecke -> Livramento and Murillo to the Bench for BB.
April 15, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Resounding BB success.
Smith Rowe and Semenyo -> Murphy and Rogers. Then did Van Hecke -> Livramento and Murillo to the Bench for BB.
Smith Rowe and Semenyo -> Murphy and Rogers. Then did Van Hecke -> Livramento and Murillo to the Bench for BB.
My FPL season has not been "successful" this year, but I used the TC on the best (I think this is still true) person and now BB seems to be a success (even with the extra transfer for it). Two more to go.
April 13, 2025 at 5:11 PM
My FPL season has not been "successful" this year, but I used the TC on the best (I think this is still true) person and now BB seems to be a success (even with the extra transfer for it). Two more to go.
I made these ahead of GW26, but never posted. Here they are before they are complete irrelevant.
Trying to assist with picking players around the blank GW29. One looks at strength of team in GW29 as well as 30 (in case you need both). The other looks at strength of schedule for blanking teams.
Trying to assist with picking players around the blank GW29. One looks at strength of team in GW29 as well as 30 (in case you need both). The other looks at strength of schedule for blanking teams.
February 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
I made these ahead of GW26, but never posted. Here they are before they are complete irrelevant.
Trying to assist with picking players around the blank GW29. One looks at strength of team in GW29 as well as 30 (in case you need both). The other looks at strength of schedule for blanking teams.
Trying to assist with picking players around the blank GW29. One looks at strength of team in GW29 as well as 30 (in case you need both). The other looks at strength of schedule for blanking teams.
Deleted comment because numbers were wrong.
For LEI, I get the attached predictions (just probabilities, not simulations).
Is it fair to say that the bars in your chart are not "solid" in that not all scores in that range are likely/possible?
For LEI, I get the attached predictions (just probabilities, not simulations).
Is it fair to say that the bars in your chart are not "solid" in that not all scores in that range are likely/possible?
February 20, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Deleted comment because numbers were wrong.
For LEI, I get the attached predictions (just probabilities, not simulations).
Is it fair to say that the bars in your chart are not "solid" in that not all scores in that range are likely/possible?
For LEI, I get the attached predictions (just probabilities, not simulations).
Is it fair to say that the bars in your chart are not "solid" in that not all scores in that range are likely/possible?