François Hublet
@fhublet.bsky.social
Computer scientist and political analyst, or vice-versa
Editor-in-chief Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE)
Contributor @grandcontinent.bsky.social
Doctoral candidate @ethzurich.bsky.social
Here in 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 and more
Editor-in-chief Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE)
Contributor @grandcontinent.bsky.social
Doctoral candidate @ethzurich.bsky.social
Here in 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 and more
France, Germany, Britain, and the EU have a lot in common these days:
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
October 7, 2025 at 9:08 PM
France, Germany, Britain, and the EU have a lot in common these days:
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
🗳️🇲🇩 As Moldova is counting, a solid pro-EU majority emerges, yet PAS will likely need a coalition partner to govern. #alegeri #moldovaelections
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
September 28, 2025 at 9:08 PM
🗳️🇲🇩 As Moldova is counting, a solid pro-EU majority emerges, yet PAS will likely need a coalition partner to govern. #alegeri #moldovaelections
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
Dass Menschen im heutigen Frankreich so schlecht Deutsch sprechen, hat vor allem mit zu tun, dass Englisch eine massive Vormachtstellung im frz. Schulsystem genießt. 🙃
Unklar bleibt dabei allein, ob Leavitts Äußerung als eher frankophob oder eher germanophob zu deuten sei.
Unklar bleibt dabei allein, ob Leavitts Äußerung als eher frankophob oder eher germanophob zu deuten sei.
🇺🇸🇫🇷 "C'est seulement grâce aux Etats-Unis d'Amérique que les Français ne parlent pas allemand aujourd'hui, donc ils devraient être très reconnaissants envers notre grand pays", a déclaré la porte-parole de la Maison Blanche, Karoline Leavitt, en réponse aux propos de Raphaël Glucksmann.
March 17, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Dass Menschen im heutigen Frankreich so schlecht Deutsch sprechen, hat vor allem mit zu tun, dass Englisch eine massive Vormachtstellung im frz. Schulsystem genießt. 🙃
Unklar bleibt dabei allein, ob Leavitts Äußerung als eher frankophob oder eher germanophob zu deuten sei.
Unklar bleibt dabei allein, ob Leavitts Äußerung als eher frankophob oder eher germanophob zu deuten sei.
Reposted by François Hublet
After the AfD's surge on Sunday, far right parties are the most voted-for of any grouping in Europe, for the first time in history: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
February 28, 2025 at 5:32 PM
After the AfD's surge on Sunday, far right parties are the most voted-for of any grouping in Europe, for the first time in history: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
— Service reminder 🔔 —
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
February 28, 2025 at 11:07 PM
— Service reminder 🔔 —
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
Gone is the GroKo. #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Gone is the GroKo. #Bundestagswahl2025
Wir präsentieren: Der Wagenknecht-Tracker.
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
February 23, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Wir präsentieren: Der Wagenknecht-Tracker.
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
Clear patterns in the youngest and oldest 🇩🇪 cohorts
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
February 23, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Clear patterns in the youngest and oldest 🇩🇪 cohorts
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
First data pouring in right now in @grandcontinent.bsky.social
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
February 23, 2025 at 8:54 PM
First data pouring in right now in @grandcontinent.bsky.social
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
Reposted by François Hublet
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
February 23, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
25% kam aus Österreich, 30% von den 500 reichsten deutschen Familien, 5% aus dem Osten Deutschlands, und nur 2% von Spenderinnen.
Mit C. Kleine haben wir für @grandcontinent.bsky.social die Großspenden im Wahlkampf unter die Lupe genommen 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
legrandcontinent.eu/de/2025/02/2...
Mit C. Kleine haben wir für @grandcontinent.bsky.social die Großspenden im Wahlkampf unter die Lupe genommen 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
legrandcontinent.eu/de/2025/02/2...
Bundestagswahl: Wer waren die Großspenderinnen und Großspender? 10 Punkte zu den 23 Millionen Euro an Wahlkampfspenden - Der Grand Continent
Ein Schlüsselindikator wurde im Bundestagswahlkampf kaum thematisiert, obwohl er von tiefgreifenden Veränderungen in der deutschen Parteienlandschaft zeugt: die private Parteienfinanzierung. Die Roll...
legrandcontinent.eu
February 23, 2025 at 12:43 PM
25% kam aus Österreich, 30% von den 500 reichsten deutschen Familien, 5% aus dem Osten Deutschlands, und nur 2% von Spenderinnen.
Mit C. Kleine haben wir für @grandcontinent.bsky.social die Großspenden im Wahlkampf unter die Lupe genommen 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
legrandcontinent.eu/de/2025/02/2...
Mit C. Kleine haben wir für @grandcontinent.bsky.social die Großspenden im Wahlkampf unter die Lupe genommen 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
legrandcontinent.eu/de/2025/02/2...
Reposted by François Hublet
“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya”
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
February 22, 2025 at 12:57 AM
“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya”
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
Reposted by François Hublet
A lot of speculation why Trump is doing what he is.
As I told @kyivindependent.com @chrisdyork.bsky.social on Thurs, there’s 3 options
1. Putting Europeans on notice (unlikely)
2. Splitting Russia from China (misguided)
3. Embracing the Dark side (nightmare).
kyivindependent.com/how-ukraine-...
As I told @kyivindependent.com @chrisdyork.bsky.social on Thurs, there’s 3 options
1. Putting Europeans on notice (unlikely)
2. Splitting Russia from China (misguided)
3. Embracing the Dark side (nightmare).
kyivindependent.com/how-ukraine-...
February 21, 2025 at 11:41 PM
A lot of speculation why Trump is doing what he is.
As I told @kyivindependent.com @chrisdyork.bsky.social on Thurs, there’s 3 options
1. Putting Europeans on notice (unlikely)
2. Splitting Russia from China (misguided)
3. Embracing the Dark side (nightmare).
kyivindependent.com/how-ukraine-...
As I told @kyivindependent.com @chrisdyork.bsky.social on Thurs, there’s 3 options
1. Putting Europeans on notice (unlikely)
2. Splitting Russia from China (misguided)
3. Embracing the Dark side (nightmare).
kyivindependent.com/how-ukraine-...
“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya”
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
February 22, 2025 at 12:57 AM
“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya”
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
Reposted by François Hublet
Notre prochain mardi du Grand Continent à @normalesup.bsky.social portera sur les élections allemandes.
Avec @guillaumeduval.bsky.social, @fhublet.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, @vdubslaff.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @pmennerat.bsky.social.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/evenement...
Avec @guillaumeduval.bsky.social, @fhublet.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, @vdubslaff.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @pmennerat.bsky.social.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/evenement...
Comprendre les résultats des élections allemandes | Le Grand Continent
Mardi du Grand Continent à l'École normale supérieure, avec Jean-Yves Dormagen, Guillaume Duval, François Hublet, Hélène Miard-Delacroix, Joseph de Weck, Valérie Dubslaff, Ulrike Franke et Pierre Menn...
legrandcontinent.eu
February 20, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Notre prochain mardi du Grand Continent à @normalesup.bsky.social portera sur les élections allemandes.
Avec @guillaumeduval.bsky.social, @fhublet.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, @vdubslaff.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @pmennerat.bsky.social.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/evenement...
Avec @guillaumeduval.bsky.social, @fhublet.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, @vdubslaff.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @pmennerat.bsky.social.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/evenement...
In the 2024 campaign, Musk donated $288M.
You may think this was a major investment.
It wasn't.
$288M is 0.066% of Musk's wealth, akin to a $74 donation for a median U.S. household.
Musk's only trick: His wealth is 4 million times higher than the median.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
You may think this was a major investment.
It wasn't.
$288M is 0.066% of Musk's wealth, akin to a $74 donation for a median U.S. household.
Musk's only trick: His wealth is 4 million times higher than the median.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Elon Musk donated $288 million in 2024 election, final tally shows
The official count of Musk’s donations further cemented him as the country’s largest -— and most prominent — donor.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 15, 2025 at 12:30 AM
In the 2024 campaign, Musk donated $288M.
You may think this was a major investment.
It wasn't.
$288M is 0.066% of Musk's wealth, akin to a $74 donation for a median U.S. household.
Musk's only trick: His wealth is 4 million times higher than the median.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
You may think this was a major investment.
It wasn't.
$288M is 0.066% of Musk's wealth, akin to a $74 donation for a median U.S. household.
Musk's only trick: His wealth is 4 million times higher than the median.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
DeepSeek's censorship of Taiwanese independence goes brrr: “The Basque Country is an inseparable part of China” 👇
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
February 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
DeepSeek's censorship of Taiwanese independence goes brrr: “The Basque Country is an inseparable part of China” 👇
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
So far Merz's move has had little demoscopic effect.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
February 8, 2025 at 3:44 PM
So far Merz's move has had little demoscopic effect.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
Reposted by François Hublet
Редакция газеты Le Monde осуждает отзыв аккредитации у своего корреспондента
February 5, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Редакция газеты Le Monde осуждает отзыв аккредитации у своего корреспондента
Self-proclaimed minimal-state advocates promoting authoritarian rule.
Self-proclaimed free-market capitalists putting the richest of their kind in power.
Self-proclaimed libertarians cracking down on academic freedom.
Trumpism may be to liberalism what Stalinism was to socialism.
Self-proclaimed free-market capitalists putting the richest of their kind in power.
Self-proclaimed libertarians cracking down on academic freedom.
Trumpism may be to liberalism what Stalinism was to socialism.
February 2, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Self-proclaimed minimal-state advocates promoting authoritarian rule.
Self-proclaimed free-market capitalists putting the richest of their kind in power.
Self-proclaimed libertarians cracking down on academic freedom.
Trumpism may be to liberalism what Stalinism was to socialism.
Self-proclaimed free-market capitalists putting the richest of their kind in power.
Self-proclaimed libertarians cracking down on academic freedom.
Trumpism may be to liberalism what Stalinism was to socialism.
As far as I know, this is absolutely unprecedented in recent decades in any democratically ruled polity.
Well-accepted *scientific* concepts being censored away from and by a government-affiliated body.
Well-accepted *scientific* concepts being censored away from and by a government-affiliated body.
BREAKING NEWS: CDC orders mass retraction and revision of submitted research across all science and medicine journals. Banned terms must be scrubbed.
Goes beyond MMWR +other CDC pubs. Applies to research already submitted to top medical journals.
Take a look.
open.substack.com/pub/insideme...
Goes beyond MMWR +other CDC pubs. Applies to research already submitted to top medical journals.
Take a look.
open.substack.com/pub/insideme...
BREAKING NEWS: CDC orders mass retraction and revision of submitted research across all science and medicine journals. Banned terms must be scrubbed.
Any unpublished manuscript mentioning certain topics, including gender and "LGBT," must be pulled or revised.
open.substack.com
February 1, 2025 at 11:51 PM
As far as I know, this is absolutely unprecedented in recent decades in any democratically ruled polity.
Well-accepted *scientific* concepts being censored away from and by a government-affiliated body.
Well-accepted *scientific* concepts being censored away from and by a government-affiliated body.
Here is what Germany's regional coalitions could look like were the CDU/CSU to abandon their “firewall” policy vis-à-vis the AfD.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
January 29, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Here is what Germany's regional coalitions could look like were the CDU/CSU to abandon their “firewall” policy vis-à-vis the AfD.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
Etwa so könnte die neue politische Dystopie aussehen, falls die #Brandmauer heute wirklich wegfallen würde.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
January 29, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Etwa so könnte die neue politische Dystopie aussehen, falls die #Brandmauer heute wirklich wegfallen würde.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
Reposted by François Hublet
Durchaus bemerkenswert, welche Konfliktlinien sich da innerhalb Springers auftun und dass die Redaktion (+Leitung) der WELT zumindest in Teilen noch rechter ist als die der BILD.
January 5, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Durchaus bemerkenswert, welche Konfliktlinien sich da innerhalb Springers auftun und dass die Redaktion (+Leitung) der WELT zumindest in Teilen noch rechter ist als die der BILD.
🗳️🇦🇹 En Autriche, le président Alexander van der Bellen (Verts) vient d'ouvrir la porte au premier chancelier d’extrême droite depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale.
Voici la traduction et le commentaire de son discours👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/0...
Voici la traduction et le commentaire de son discours👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/0...
En Autriche le président Van der Bellen ouvre la porte au premier chancelier d’extrême droite depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale | Le Grand Continent
L’extrême droite vient-elle d’emporter une nouvelle victoire en Autriche ? Ce dimanche 5 janvier, le président autrichien Alexander van der Bellen a annoncé convier le leader d’extrême droite Herbert ...
legrandcontinent.eu
January 5, 2025 at 11:16 PM
🗳️🇦🇹 En Autriche, le président Alexander van der Bellen (Verts) vient d'ouvrir la porte au premier chancelier d’extrême droite depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale.
Voici la traduction et le commentaire de son discours👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/0...
Voici la traduction et le commentaire de son discours👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/0...