François Hublet
@fhublet.bsky.social
Computer scientist and political analyst, or vice-versa
Editor-in-chief Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE)
Contributor @grandcontinent.bsky.social
Doctoral candidate @ethzurich.bsky.social
Here in 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 and more
Editor-in-chief Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE)
Contributor @grandcontinent.bsky.social
Doctoral candidate @ethzurich.bsky.social
Here in 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 and more
France, Germany, Britain, and the EU have a lot in common these days:
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
October 7, 2025 at 9:08 PM
France, Germany, Britain, and the EU have a lot in common these days:
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
👉Huge pressure on executives
👉Unpopular leadership
👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior
In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇
🗳️🇲🇩 As Moldova is counting, a solid pro-EU majority emerges, yet PAS will likely need a coalition partner to govern. #alegeri #moldovaelections
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
September 28, 2025 at 9:08 PM
🗳️🇲🇩 As Moldova is counting, a solid pro-EU majority emerges, yet PAS will likely need a coalition partner to govern. #alegeri #moldovaelections
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...
— Service reminder 🔔 —
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
February 28, 2025 at 11:07 PM
— Service reminder 🔔 —
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇
Gone is the GroKo. #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Gone is the GroKo. #Bundestagswahl2025
Wir präsentieren: Der Wagenknecht-Tracker.
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
February 23, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Wir präsentieren: Der Wagenknecht-Tracker.
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert.
#Bundestagswahl2025
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/
Clear patterns in the youngest and oldest 🇩🇪 cohorts
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
February 23, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Clear patterns in the youngest and oldest 🇩🇪 cohorts
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted:
🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority
On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted:
⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner
First data pouring in right now in @grandcontinent.bsky.social
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
February 23, 2025 at 8:54 PM
First data pouring in right now in @grandcontinent.bsky.social
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
as 🇩🇪 is counting.
Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/
“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya”
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
February 22, 2025 at 12:57 AM
“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya”
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇
#Bundestagswahl2025
DeepSeek's censorship of Taiwanese independence goes brrr: “The Basque Country is an inseparable part of China” 👇
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
February 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
DeepSeek's censorship of Taiwanese independence goes brrr: “The Basque Country is an inseparable part of China” 👇
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
[NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]
So far Merz's move has had little demoscopic effect.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
February 8, 2025 at 3:44 PM
So far Merz's move has had little demoscopic effect.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right.
This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.
Here is what Germany's regional coalitions could look like were the CDU/CSU to abandon their “firewall” policy vis-à-vis the AfD.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
January 29, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Here is what Germany's regional coalitions could look like were the CDU/CSU to abandon their “firewall” policy vis-à-vis the AfD.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.
Etwa so könnte die neue politische Dystopie aussehen, falls die #Brandmauer heute wirklich wegfallen würde.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
January 29, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Etwa so könnte die neue politische Dystopie aussehen, falls die #Brandmauer heute wirklich wegfallen würde.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.
[5/5] Our main preliminary findings:
· Left-wing parties perform quite uniformly better in urban areas and PRR parties in rural areas;
· The PRR voting gap has increased in a statistically significant way between 2019 and 2024.
· Left-wing parties perform quite uniformly better in urban areas and PRR parties in rural areas;
· The PRR voting gap has increased in a statistically significant way between 2019 and 2024.
January 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM
[5/5] Our main preliminary findings:
· Left-wing parties perform quite uniformly better in urban areas and PRR parties in rural areas;
· The PRR voting gap has increased in a statistically significant way between 2019 and 2024.
· Left-wing parties perform quite uniformly better in urban areas and PRR parties in rural areas;
· The PRR voting gap has increased in a statistically significant way between 2019 and 2024.
[4/5] We present a preliminary analysis of BLUE_EP in BLUE's latest special dossier on the 2024 EP election.
Our dataset greatly eases the visualization of, e.g., the distribution of centrist support across the EU:
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/...
Our dataset greatly eases the visualization of, e.g., the distribution of centrist support across the EU:
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/...
January 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM
[4/5] We present a preliminary analysis of BLUE_EP in BLUE's latest special dossier on the 2024 EP election.
Our dataset greatly eases the visualization of, e.g., the distribution of centrist support across the EU:
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/...
Our dataset greatly eases the visualization of, e.g., the distribution of centrist support across the EU:
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/...
[3/5] In addition to standard LAUs, BLUE_EP also provides extensive results from voters residing outside of their country of citizenship, postal vote, etc.
One example: in the French constituency, the Greens obtain their best results in center European cities.
One example: in the French constituency, the Greens obtain their best results in center European cities.
January 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM
[3/5] In addition to standard LAUs, BLUE_EP also provides extensive results from voters residing outside of their country of citizenship, postal vote, etc.
One example: in the French constituency, the Greens obtain their best results in center European cities.
One example: in the French constituency, the Greens obtain their best results in center European cities.
[2/5] We classify all competing parties by their EP group and assign non-affiliated parties to broader "Left", "Center-right", and "Radical right" families whenever possible. This eases cross-border comparability.
January 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM
[2/5] We classify all competing parties by their EP group and assign non-affiliated parties to broader "Left", "Center-right", and "Radical right" families whenever possible. This eases cross-border comparability.
[1/5] To create BLUE_EP, we have compiled and harmonized 27 national datasets.
So far, the most fine-grained Europe-wide datasets only covered ~1.1k NUTS regions. BLUE_EP has 90k local units, most of which correspond to a Eurostat LAU (Germany: Gemeinden; France: communes...).
So far, the most fine-grained Europe-wide datasets only covered ~1.1k NUTS regions. BLUE_EP has 90k local units, most of which correspond to a Eurostat LAU (Germany: Gemeinden; France: communes...).
January 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM
[1/5] To create BLUE_EP, we have compiled and harmonized 27 national datasets.
So far, the most fine-grained Europe-wide datasets only covered ~1.1k NUTS regions. BLUE_EP has 90k local units, most of which correspond to a Eurostat LAU (Germany: Gemeinden; France: communes...).
So far, the most fine-grained Europe-wide datasets only covered ~1.1k NUTS regions. BLUE_EP has 90k local units, most of which correspond to a Eurostat LAU (Germany: Gemeinden; France: communes...).
2 elections.
90k municipalities.
Over 500 parties.
5.3M data points.
Today, we are releasing the first-ever dataset of local-level results of European Parliament elections.
A short 🧵on our new #BLUE_EP dataset.
t.co/eatnzauFSU
90k municipalities.
Over 500 parties.
5.3M data points.
Today, we are releasing the first-ever dataset of local-level results of European Parliament elections.
A short 🧵on our new #BLUE_EP dataset.
t.co/eatnzauFSU
January 3, 2025 at 4:40 PM
2 elections.
90k municipalities.
Over 500 parties.
5.3M data points.
Today, we are releasing the first-ever dataset of local-level results of European Parliament elections.
A short 🧵on our new #BLUE_EP dataset.
t.co/eatnzauFSU
90k municipalities.
Over 500 parties.
5.3M data points.
Today, we are releasing the first-ever dataset of local-level results of European Parliament elections.
A short 🧵on our new #BLUE_EP dataset.
t.co/eatnzauFSU
🇫🇷🗳️ Évolution du nombre de ministres par région 👇
📈 Les gagnantes
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté : 1 → 2
Corse : 0 → 1
Normandie : 1 → 2
📉 Les perdantes
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes : 4 → 0
Centre-Val-de-Loire : 2 → 0
🟰 Stable
Île-de-France : 4 → 4
📈 Les gagnantes
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté : 1 → 2
Corse : 0 → 1
Normandie : 1 → 2
📉 Les perdantes
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes : 4 → 0
Centre-Val-de-Loire : 2 → 0
🟰 Stable
Île-de-France : 4 → 4
December 23, 2024 at 8:12 PM
🇫🇷🗳️ Évolution du nombre de ministres par région 👇
📈 Les gagnantes
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté : 1 → 2
Corse : 0 → 1
Normandie : 1 → 2
📉 Les perdantes
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes : 4 → 0
Centre-Val-de-Loire : 2 → 0
🟰 Stable
Île-de-France : 4 → 4
📈 Les gagnantes
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté : 1 → 2
Corse : 0 → 1
Normandie : 1 → 2
📉 Les perdantes
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes : 4 → 0
Centre-Val-de-Loire : 2 → 0
🟰 Stable
Île-de-France : 4 → 4
🗺️🗳️ Si le gouvernement Bayrou est moins parisien que l'ex-gouvernemental Attal, il est loin d'être méridional : François Bayrou est seul issu de la France d'oc 👇
December 23, 2024 at 8:00 PM
🗺️🗳️ Si le gouvernement Bayrou est moins parisien que l'ex-gouvernemental Attal, il est loin d'être méridional : François Bayrou est seul issu de la France d'oc 👇
🗺️🏅 Very happy to announce that our paper
Where the Borders Lie: Mapping Cross-Border Communities in 10 Western European Countries
co-authored with Aurore Sallard @ethzurich.bsky.social
has received a 2024 Fred Burggraf Paper Award!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
Where the Borders Lie: Mapping Cross-Border Communities in 10 Western European Countries
co-authored with Aurore Sallard @ethzurich.bsky.social
has received a 2024 Fred Burggraf Paper Award!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
December 21, 2024 at 7:49 PM
🗺️🏅 Very happy to announce that our paper
Where the Borders Lie: Mapping Cross-Border Communities in 10 Western European Countries
co-authored with Aurore Sallard @ethzurich.bsky.social
has received a 2024 Fred Burggraf Paper Award!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
Where the Borders Lie: Mapping Cross-Border Communities in 10 Western European Countries
co-authored with Aurore Sallard @ethzurich.bsky.social
has received a 2024 Fred Burggraf Paper Award!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
🗳️🇷🇴 Here is how the Romanian diaspora voted 👇
🟠 Georgescu (far-right) wins 🇩🇪🇬🇧🇮🇹🇧🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇪🇸🇮🇪
🔵 Lasconi (liberal) wins 🇲🇩, East, Paris, Berlin, 🇳🇱🇸🇪🇵🇹
🟢 Kelemen (Hungarian minority party) wins 🇭🇺
🟠 Georgescu (far-right) wins 🇩🇪🇬🇧🇮🇹🇧🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇪🇸🇮🇪
🔵 Lasconi (liberal) wins 🇲🇩, East, Paris, Berlin, 🇳🇱🇸🇪🇵🇹
🟢 Kelemen (Hungarian minority party) wins 🇭🇺
November 28, 2024 at 10:40 PM
🗳️🇷🇴 Here is how the Romanian diaspora voted 👇
🟠 Georgescu (far-right) wins 🇩🇪🇬🇧🇮🇹🇧🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇪🇸🇮🇪
🔵 Lasconi (liberal) wins 🇲🇩, East, Paris, Berlin, 🇳🇱🇸🇪🇵🇹
🟢 Kelemen (Hungarian minority party) wins 🇭🇺
🟠 Georgescu (far-right) wins 🇩🇪🇬🇧🇮🇹🇧🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇪🇸🇮🇪
🔵 Lasconi (liberal) wins 🇲🇩, East, Paris, Berlin, 🇳🇱🇸🇪🇵🇹
🟢 Kelemen (Hungarian minority party) wins 🇭🇺