Frank Harrell
@f2harrell.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics
Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Expert Biostatistics Advisor
FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research
https://hbiostat.org https://fharrell.com
Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Expert Biostatistics Advisor
FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research
https://hbiostat.org https://fharrell.com
Americans are not supposed to see this, and @cbsnews.com is now an embarrassment.
December 23, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Americans are not supposed to see this, and @cbsnews.com is now an embarrassment.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
It’s the run up to the holidays so there can only be one #MethodologyMonday topic - the scientific way to cut your Christmas cake. Published c1906 in Nature by the statistician Francis Galton 🎂🎄🔪😊 Enjoy!
galton.org/essays/1900-...
galton.org/essays/1900-...
December 22, 2025 at 7:57 AM
It’s the run up to the holidays so there can only be one #MethodologyMonday topic - the scientific way to cut your Christmas cake. Published c1906 in Nature by the statistician Francis Galton 🎂🎄🔪😊 Enjoy!
galton.org/essays/1900-...
galton.org/essays/1900-...
Reposted by Frank Harrell
In case people need a refresher:
The Trump administration is fighting contempt proceedings y in federal court over what happened “inside CECOT” to human beings unlawfully renditioned there.
Bari Weiss’s CBS News is now part of the coverup.
The Trump administration is fighting contempt proceedings y in federal court over what happened “inside CECOT” to human beings unlawfully renditioned there.
Bari Weiss’s CBS News is now part of the coverup.
December 21, 2025 at 10:13 PM
In case people need a refresher:
The Trump administration is fighting contempt proceedings y in federal court over what happened “inside CECOT” to human beings unlawfully renditioned there.
Bari Weiss’s CBS News is now part of the coverup.
The Trump administration is fighting contempt proceedings y in federal court over what happened “inside CECOT” to human beings unlawfully renditioned there.
Bari Weiss’s CBS News is now part of the coverup.
#Statistics thought of the day: For longitudinal studies, don't treat the baseline measurement as the first follow-up measurement. Baseline cannot be considered a response to treatment. You'd be surprised how often this in done in #pharma. hbiostat.org/rmsc/long#mo... #StatsSky
7 Modeling Longitudinal Responses using Generalized Least Squares – Regression Modeling Strategies
hbiostat.org
December 22, 2025 at 1:45 PM
#Statistics thought of the day: For longitudinal studies, don't treat the baseline measurement as the first follow-up measurement. Baseline cannot be considered a response to treatment. You'd be surprised how often this in done in #pharma. hbiostat.org/rmsc/long#mo... #StatsSky
Reposted by Frank Harrell
I did a whole post about stat software warranties a few years back notstatschat.rbind.io/2019/02/18/a...
Absolutely no warranty? - Biased and Inefficient
notstatschat.rbind.io
December 19, 2025 at 11:29 PM
I did a whole post about stat software warranties a few years back notstatschat.rbind.io/2019/02/18/a...
Doug Altman - an eternal inspiration for all medical statisticians and non-statistician medical researchers. #StatsSky #Statistics
Doug Altman was an internationally renowned statistician who served as The BMJ’s chief statistical adviser.
Read about life and work that made this statistician a "citation millionaire"
#BMJChristmas
www.bmj.com/content/391/...
Read about life and work that made this statistician a "citation millionaire"
#BMJChristmas
www.bmj.com/content/391/...
December 19, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Doug Altman - an eternal inspiration for all medical statisticians and non-statistician medical researchers. #StatsSky #Statistics
Reposted by Frank Harrell
This is actually the trippiest thing I've ever seen that was not deliberately created by M C Fucking Escher. It straight up took me over a minute to make sense of and now I can't go back.
This is the white-and-gold dress on a gram a week of trenbolone.
This is the white-and-gold dress on a gram a week of trenbolone.
Ok, this is nuts. Once you see it you cannot unsee it. Do you see it?
(OP @drgbuckingham.bsky.social )
(OP @drgbuckingham.bsky.social )
December 17, 2025 at 6:52 AM
This is actually the trippiest thing I've ever seen that was not deliberately created by M C Fucking Escher. It straight up took me over a minute to make sense of and now I can't go back.
This is the white-and-gold dress on a gram a week of trenbolone.
This is the white-and-gold dress on a gram a week of trenbolone.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Sounds about right.
December 15, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Sounds about right.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
I knew his response to this was going to be one of the worst things he ever posted and somehow, it was even worse than I imagined it could be.
December 15, 2025 at 3:03 PM
I knew his response to this was going to be one of the worst things he ever posted and somehow, it was even worse than I imagined it could be.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Use of {tinyplot} is very nice.
But, I'd love to see examples that don't use variables like
c("e16sex", "c172code", "e42dep")
But, I'd love to see examples that don't use variables like
c("e16sex", "c172code", "e42dep")
🎉 Great news for #rstats users! If you love the native R graphics feel of #tinyplot AND you're a fan of the powerful #easystats #modelbased package, this is for you!
Thanks to @gmcd.bsky.social, we significantly enhanced the tinyplot integration.
🔗 Read more: easystats.github.io/modelbased/a...
Thanks to @gmcd.bsky.social, we significantly enhanced the tinyplot integration.
🔗 Read more: easystats.github.io/modelbased/a...
Plotting estimated marginal means with tinyplot
easystats.github.io
December 13, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Use of {tinyplot} is very nice.
But, I'd love to see examples that don't use variables like
c("e16sex", "c172code", "e42dep")
But, I'd love to see examples that don't use variables like
c("e16sex", "c172code", "e42dep")
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Weekend reads: Springer Nature retracts papers using ‘bonkers’ dataset; preprint server welcomes AI authors; ethics editors’ COI disclosures ‘insufficient’
Weekend reads: Springer Nature retracts papers using ‘bonkers’ dataset; preprint server welcomes AI authors; ethics editors’ COI disclosures ‘insufficient’
Dear RW readers, we look forward to wrapping up the week with Weekend Reads. If you enjoy it too, please consider showing your support with a tax-deductible donation. I support retraction wat…
retractionwatch.com
December 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Weekend reads: Springer Nature retracts papers using ‘bonkers’ dataset; preprint server welcomes AI authors; ethics editors’ COI disclosures ‘insufficient’
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Reposted by Frank Harrell
This post is truly ghastly. ICE break the law with impunity. The black shirts rule the USA.
ICYMI — “I identified myself as a U.S. citizen and a veteran, but that didn't matter. ICE Agents smashed my window, sprayed tear gas and pepper spray into my car, dragged me out… this experience violated the very principles I fought to defend.”
December 11, 2025 at 12:30 PM
This post is truly ghastly. ICE break the law with impunity. The black shirts rule the USA.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
#GVerse #FuckICE detain U.S. citizen for "looking" Somali—use illegal chokehold to tackle him to ground.
Man repeatedly begs agents to look at his digital passport ID—they refuse.
The incident occurred at the Cedar-Riverside neighborhood in Minneapolis. #DemsUnited
Man repeatedly begs agents to look at his digital passport ID—they refuse.
The incident occurred at the Cedar-Riverside neighborhood in Minneapolis. #DemsUnited
December 10, 2025 at 10:50 PM
#GVerse #FuckICE detain U.S. citizen for "looking" Somali—use illegal chokehold to tackle him to ground.
Man repeatedly begs agents to look at his digital passport ID—they refuse.
The incident occurred at the Cedar-Riverside neighborhood in Minneapolis. #DemsUnited
Man repeatedly begs agents to look at his digital passport ID—they refuse.
The incident occurred at the Cedar-Riverside neighborhood in Minneapolis. #DemsUnited
An astounding resource for learning and thinking
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
December 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM
An astounding resource for learning and thinking
Reposted by Frank Harrell
E.P.A. Erases Mention of Humans Causing Climate Change From Some Web Pages. Gift link: nyti.ms/3Mo6REt
nyti.ms
December 9, 2025 at 9:18 PM
E.P.A. Erases Mention of Humans Causing Climate Change From Some Web Pages. Gift link: nyti.ms/3Mo6REt
Excellent article on data visualization
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
December 10, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Excellent article on data visualization
Reposted by Frank Harrell
New projpred (projection predictive variable selection for brms and rstanarm) release 2.10.0. Frank Weber added support for censored observations when using the latent projection (see a vignette mc-stan.org/projpred/art...). @aloctavodia.bsky.social fixed bugs and made the release.
Latent projection predictive feature selection
mc-stan.org
December 10, 2025 at 8:44 AM
New projpred (projection predictive variable selection for brms and rstanarm) release 2.10.0. Frank Weber added support for censored observations when using the latent projection (see a vignette mc-stan.org/projpred/art...). @aloctavodia.bsky.social fixed bugs and made the release.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Heartbreaking. The University of Nebraska will terminate its entire Earth science department.
One of the country's most successful and respected geology & climate programs: gone.
When ideologues & politicians are threatened by the very act of studying climate change, I wonder: who of us is next?
One of the country's most successful and respected geology & climate programs: gone.
When ideologues & politicians are threatened by the very act of studying climate change, I wonder: who of us is next?
It's over.
Despite the fact that the academic council recommended against it, despite the fact that the program brought in more tuition than it cost, and despite the fact that Nebraskans need & deserve this expertise, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences will be cut.
www.dailynebraskan.com/news/adminis...
Despite the fact that the academic council recommended against it, despite the fact that the program brought in more tuition than it cost, and despite the fact that Nebraskans need & deserve this expertise, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences will be cut.
www.dailynebraskan.com/news/adminis...
BREAKING: ‘This hurts’: UNL eliminates 4 programs despite faculty, student pleas
The University of Nebraska-Lincoln eliminates the Earth and atmospheric sciences 8-0, educational administration 7-1, statistics 7-1, textiles, merchandising and fashion design 7-1 programs.
www.dailynebraskan.com
December 6, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Heartbreaking. The University of Nebraska will terminate its entire Earth science department.
One of the country's most successful and respected geology & climate programs: gone.
When ideologues & politicians are threatened by the very act of studying climate change, I wonder: who of us is next?
One of the country's most successful and respected geology & climate programs: gone.
When ideologues & politicians are threatened by the very act of studying climate change, I wonder: who of us is next?
Reposted by Frank Harrell
ICE has arrested nearly 75,000 people with no criminal records, data shows www.nbcnews.com/politics/imm...
ICE has arrested nearly 75,000 people with no criminal records, data shows
The figures do not include arrests made by Border Patrol, which has launched aggressive immigration operations in several cities in recent months.
www.nbcnews.com
December 7, 2025 at 11:19 AM
ICE has arrested nearly 75,000 people with no criminal records, data shows www.nbcnews.com/politics/imm...
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Spotify has laid off thousands in recent years, while reportedly paying artists $0.003 per stream.
Spotify profits rose 28% in Q3. Its CEO is worth $9.8 billion. It's making money off ICE recruitment ads.
Don't you think it's time put a wrap on corporate greed and exploitation?
Spotify profits rose 28% in Q3. Its CEO is worth $9.8 billion. It's making money off ICE recruitment ads.
Don't you think it's time put a wrap on corporate greed and exploitation?
December 4, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Spotify has laid off thousands in recent years, while reportedly paying artists $0.003 per stream.
Spotify profits rose 28% in Q3. Its CEO is worth $9.8 billion. It's making money off ICE recruitment ads.
Don't you think it's time put a wrap on corporate greed and exploitation?
Spotify profits rose 28% in Q3. Its CEO is worth $9.8 billion. It's making money off ICE recruitment ads.
Don't you think it's time put a wrap on corporate greed and exploitation?
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Reminder about Jan 6:
it really happened
It was a horror
140+ police were injured
A range of violent weapons were used by attackers
Chants to hang Mike Pence were heard
There was a gallows and guns
Pipe bombs diverted police as mob approached
it really happened
It was a horror
140+ police were injured
A range of violent weapons were used by attackers
Chants to hang Mike Pence were heard
There was a gallows and guns
Pipe bombs diverted police as mob approached
December 4, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Reminder about Jan 6:
it really happened
It was a horror
140+ police were injured
A range of violent weapons were used by attackers
Chants to hang Mike Pence were heard
There was a gallows and guns
Pipe bombs diverted police as mob approached
it really happened
It was a horror
140+ police were injured
A range of violent weapons were used by attackers
Chants to hang Mike Pence were heard
There was a gallows and guns
Pipe bombs diverted police as mob approached
Universities always have $ for athletics, not so much for full-time and part-time faculty.
December 3, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Universities always have $ for athletics, not so much for full-time and part-time faculty.
Excellent note @avehtari.bsky.social - with insights I had missed about how the effective posterior draw sample size depends on which part of the posterior distribution you are estimating for a parameter. #Statistics #StatsSky
I wrote more about how effective sample size depends on the quantity of interest statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/02/e...
Effective sample size depends on the quantity | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
December 2, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Excellent note @avehtari.bsky.social - with insights I had missed about how the effective posterior draw sample size depends on which part of the posterior distribution you are estimating for a parameter. #Statistics #StatsSky
Oversampling: A sure way to expose fundamental statistical misunderstandings. #Statistics #StatsSky
In which horses are more common than zebras and this isn't a reason to oversample
notstatschat.rbind.io/2025/12/01/h...
notstatschat.rbind.io/2025/12/01/h...
Horses or Zebras? - Biased and Inefficient
notstatschat.rbind.io
December 1, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Oversampling: A sure way to expose fundamental statistical misunderstandings. #Statistics #StatsSky