Frank Harrell
f2harrell.bsky.social
Frank Harrell
@f2harrell.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics
Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Expert Biostatistics Advisor
FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research
https://hbiostat.org https://fharrell.com
Some of the best data detective work I’ve seen, and embarrassing for @bmj.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.

The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.

The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.

Why?

It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
November 11, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Friends of Stats: The U. of Nebraska-Lincoln Department of Statistics needs your help. The university's Chancellor submitted a FINAL proposal today for budget cuts (budgetprocess.unl.edu/final-budget...) that eliminates the department. 1/ #LNK #Nebraska #Huskers @amstatnews.bsky.social
Final Budget Reduction Plan | Budget Process | Nebraska
budgetprocess.unl.edu
November 11, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
I'm participating in an "Open Science Exploratory Roundtable" in the Max Planck Society later this week, so bumping my grumpy thoughts about open science again. I'm as curious as everyone else to see what a club of competitive narcissists who succeeded under the status quo (the MPG) can manage!
November 10, 2025 at 8:38 AM
I just posted a critique of this paper at discourse.datamethods.org/t/critique-o... where I hope others will add their thoughts #StatsSky #EpiSky #Statistics #rct
November 9, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
1/ The US Government has quietly removed a memorial to Black soldiers who died in World War II from the Netherlands American Cemetery in Margraten, South Limburg. The move follows a complaint from the right-wing Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission. ⬇️
November 9, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
This is the next blow that red states are taking to follow along with the MAGA plan of attack. By disaffiliating as a member station, APT will not show any national PBS programming and will ultimately control every aspect of that station. What does this mean?

wbhm.org/2025/no-more...
No more Elmo? APT could cut ties with PBS
The board that oversees Alabama Public Television is considering disaffiliating from PBS, ending a 55-year relationship.
wbhm.org
November 8, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
LET ME BE PERFECTLY CLEAR: DOJ DID ALL OF THIS TO TRY AND STOP PAYMENTS TO PEOPLE UNDER AN ANTI-HUNGER PROGRAM.
Oh, this is wild.

DOJ went to SCOTUS *before* we got the First Circuit's administrative stay denial. (We know this because DOJ just filed a letter at SCOTUS about the admin stay denial.)

So, DOJ went to SCOTUS b/c the First Circuit did not meet its less-than-seven-hour "deadline" for a ruling.
November 8, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Weekend reads: Journal retracts ADHD intervention papers; ‘Science and the crisis of trust’; letters to editors surge
Weekend reads: Journal retracts ADHD intervention papers; ‘Science and the crisis of trust’; letters to editors surge
Former Australian science agency ecology researcher loses two papers Dozens of board members resign from big-data journal after mass staff firings Review mill in Italy targeting ob-gyn journals, re…
retractionwatch.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Probably the papers I share the most often are @f2harrell.bsky.social 1996 on how to effectively develop multivariate models and @benvancalster.bsky.social 2019 paper on Calibration. Both extremely well written and informative. What are you most shared stats paper? #statistics #statssky #academicsky
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Only too true 🤢
November 4, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Wow I really like the constant alignment while showing extra information for “don’t know” category.
This is definitely an interesting idea for display of Likert scale data allowing for don't-know / didn't-answer
Just trying out a way of showing Don't knows/Didn't answers.
Calculating the percents of Trust level and Party, then multiplying the don't know by -1 and using geom_col()
#rstats
November 4, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
🎨 How to create elegant #dataviz with base #rstats and the #tinyplot pkg

📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social

www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
tinyplot: convenient and customizable base R plots - Grant McDermott
YouTube video by useR! Conference
www.youtube.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
happy 11th anniversary to this email sent to all staff at the School of Mathematics and Statistics
November 4, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
What he said: 💯 🎯
November 1, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
The target population for the research question is the population of people who would satisfy the eligibility criteria. “
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
November 1, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Who did this?!
November 1, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Tapping the sign:
October 28, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
The Python Software Foundation got a competitive US research grant, but it came with a condition that they recant and abjure any diversity and inclusion ideas, on penalty of having to repay the money.

Obviously this is not desirable or safe, so no grant.

Donations would help them not regret this
The PSF has withdrawn $1.5 million proposal to US government grant program
In January 2025, the PSF submitted a proposal to the US government National Science Foundation under the Safety, Security, and Privacy of Open Source Ecosystems program to address structural vulnerabilities in Python and PyPI. It was the PSF’s first time applying for government funding, and navigating the intensive process was a steep learning curve for our small team to climb. Seth Larson, PSF Security Developer in Residence, serving as Principal Investigator (PI) with Loren Crary, PSF Deputy Executive Director, as co-PI, led the multi-round proposal writing process as well as the months-long vetting process. We invested our time and effort because we felt the PSF’s work is a strong fit for the program and that the benefit to the community if our proposal were accepted was considerable. We were honored when, after many months of work, our proposal was recommended for funding, particularly as only 36% of new NSF grant applicants are successful on their first attempt. We became concerned, however, when we were presented with the terms and conditions we would be required to agree to if we accepted the grant. These terms included affirming the statement that we “do not, and will not during the term of this financial assistance award, operate any programs that advance or promote DEI, or discriminatory equity ideology in violation of Federal anti-discrimination laws.” This restriction would apply not only to the security work directly funded by the grant, **but to any and all activity of the PSF as a whole**. Further, violation of this term gave the NSF the right to “claw back” previously approved and transferred funds. This would create a situation where money we’d already spent could be taken back, which would be an enormous, open-ended financial risk. Diversity, equity, and inclusion are core to the PSF’s values, as committed to in our mission statement: > _The mission of the Python Software Foundation is to promote, protect, and advance the Python programming language, and to support and facilitate the growth of**a diverse and international community** of Python programmers._ Given the value of the grant to the community and the PSF, we did our utmost to get clarity on the terms and to find a way to move forward in concert with our values. We consulted our NSF contacts and reviewed decisions made by other organizations in similar circumstances, particularly The Carpentries. In the end, however, the PSF simply can’t agree to a statement that we won’t operate any programs that “advance or promote” diversity, equity, and inclusion, as it would be a betrayal of our mission and our community. We’re disappointed to have been put in the position where we had to make this decision, because we believe our proposed project would offer invaluable advances to the Python and greater open source community, protecting millions of PyPI users from attempted supply-chain attacks. The proposed project would create new tools for automated proactive review of all packages uploaded to PyPI, rather than the current process of reactive-only review. These novel tools would rely on capability analysis, designed based on a dataset of known malware. Beyond just protecting PyPI users, the outputs of this work could be transferable for all open source software package registries, such as NPM and Crates.io, improving security across multiple open source ecosystems. In addition to the security benefits, the grant funds would have made a big difference to the PSF’s budget. The PSF is a relatively small organization, operating with an annual budget of around $5 million per year, with a staff of just 14. $1.5 million over two years would have been quite a lot of money for us, and easily the largest grant we’d ever received. Ultimately, however, the value of the work and the size of the grant were not more important than practicing our values and retaining the freedom to support every part of our community. The PSF Board voted unanimously to withdraw our application. Giving up the NSF grant opportunity—along with inflation, lower sponsorship, economic pressure in the tech sector, and global/local uncertainty and conflict—means the PSF needs financial support now more than ever. We are incredibly grateful for any help you can offer. If you're already a PSF member or regular donor, you have our deep appreciation, and we urge you to share your story about why you support the PSF. Your stories make all the difference in spreading awareness about the mission and work of the PSF. How to support the PSF: * Become a Member: When you sign up as a Supporting Member of the PSF, you become a part of the PSF. You’re eligible to vote in PSF elections, using your voice to guide our future direction, and you help us sustain what we do with your annual support. * Donate: Your donation makes it possible to continue our work supporting Python and its community, year after year. * Sponsor: If your company uses Python and isn’t yet a sponsor, send them our sponsorship page or reach out to sponsors@python.org today. The PSF is ever grateful for our sponsors, past and current, and we do everything we can to make their sponsorships beneficial and rewarding.
pyfound.blogspot.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
This is an excellent point that generalizes.
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.

But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
October 28, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
October 23, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
"Because science rejects claims to truth based on authority and depends on the criticism of established ideas, it is the enemy of autocracy. Because scientific knowledge is tentative and provisional, it is the enemy of dogma. "
October 25, 2025 at 9:41 PM
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Weekend reads: NEJM launches rival to MMWR; Former NIH official gets expression of concern; ‘1 in 5 chemists’ added errors to papers: study
Weekend reads: NEJM launches rival to MMWR; Former NIH official gets expression of concern; ‘1 in 5 chemists’ added errors to papers: study
Exclusive: Journal to retract Alzheimer’s study after investigation finds misconduct Less is more: Academic publishing needs ‘radical change,’ Cambridge press report concludes Exclusive: American H…
retractionwatch.com
October 25, 2025 at 9:59 PM