Frank Harrell
@f2harrell.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics
Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Expert Biostatistics Advisor
FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research
https://hbiostat.org https://fharrell.com
Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Expert Biostatistics Advisor
FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research
https://hbiostat.org https://fharrell.com
Some of the best data detective work I’ve seen, and embarrassing for @bmj.com
This is one of the most remarkable academic debacles I've ever seen.
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
A large RCT got published in BMJ. There are currently 44 Pubpeer comments, mostly about the data, including...well. Read for yourself.
pubpeer.com/publications...
PubPeer - Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart fail...
There are comments on PubPeer for publication: Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart failure by intracoronary infusion of mesenchymal stem cells: phase 3 randomised clinical trial (P...
pubpeer.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Some of the best data detective work I’ve seen, and embarrassing for @bmj.com
Reposted by Frank Harrell
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
November 11, 2025 at 1:50 AM
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Ten Simple Rules for AI-Assisted Coding in Science arxiv.org/abs/2510.22254 - our latest, led by @ericwbridgeford.bsky.social
Ten Simple Rules for AI-Assisted Coding in Science
While AI coding tools have demonstrated potential to accelerate software development, their use in scientific computing raises critical questions about code quality and scientific validity. In this pa...
arxiv.org
October 28, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Ten Simple Rules for AI-Assisted Coding in Science arxiv.org/abs/2510.22254 - our latest, led by @ericwbridgeford.bsky.social
Reposted by Frank Harrell
What intro stats textbook to use?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
What intro stats textbook to use? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 9, 2025 at 4:20 PM
What intro stats textbook to use?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Friends of Stats: The U. of Nebraska-Lincoln Department of Statistics needs your help. The university's Chancellor submitted a FINAL proposal today for budget cuts (budgetprocess.unl.edu/final-budget...) that eliminates the department. 1/ #LNK #Nebraska #Huskers @amstatnews.bsky.social
Final Budget Reduction Plan | Budget Process | Nebraska
budgetprocess.unl.edu
November 11, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Friends of Stats: The U. of Nebraska-Lincoln Department of Statistics needs your help. The university's Chancellor submitted a FINAL proposal today for budget cuts (budgetprocess.unl.edu/final-budget...) that eliminates the department. 1/ #LNK #Nebraska #Huskers @amstatnews.bsky.social
Reposted by Frank Harrell
I'm participating in an "Open Science Exploratory Roundtable" in the Max Planck Society later this week, so bumping my grumpy thoughts about open science again. I'm as curious as everyone else to see what a club of competitive narcissists who succeeded under the status quo (the MPG) can manage!
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...
Which Kind of Science Reform
What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.
elevanth.org
November 10, 2025 at 8:38 AM
I'm participating in an "Open Science Exploratory Roundtable" in the Max Planck Society later this week, so bumping my grumpy thoughts about open science again. I'm as curious as everyone else to see what a club of competitive narcissists who succeeded under the status quo (the MPG) can manage!
I just posted a critique of this paper at discourse.datamethods.org/t/critique-o... where I hope others will add their thoughts #StatsSky #EpiSky #Statistics #rct
November 9, 2025 at 3:56 PM
I just posted a critique of this paper at discourse.datamethods.org/t/critique-o... where I hope others will add their thoughts #StatsSky #EpiSky #Statistics #rct
Reposted by Frank Harrell
1/ The US Government has quietly removed a memorial to Black soldiers who died in World War II from the Netherlands American Cemetery in Margraten, South Limburg. The move follows a complaint from the right-wing Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission. ⬇️
November 9, 2025 at 9:23 AM
1/ The US Government has quietly removed a memorial to Black soldiers who died in World War II from the Netherlands American Cemetery in Margraten, South Limburg. The move follows a complaint from the right-wing Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission. ⬇️
Reposted by Frank Harrell
This is the next blow that red states are taking to follow along with the MAGA plan of attack. By disaffiliating as a member station, APT will not show any national PBS programming and will ultimately control every aspect of that station. What does this mean?
wbhm.org/2025/no-more...
wbhm.org/2025/no-more...
No more Elmo? APT could cut ties with PBS
The board that oversees Alabama Public Television is considering disaffiliating from PBS, ending a 55-year relationship.
wbhm.org
November 8, 2025 at 12:03 AM
This is the next blow that red states are taking to follow along with the MAGA plan of attack. By disaffiliating as a member station, APT will not show any national PBS programming and will ultimately control every aspect of that station. What does this mean?
wbhm.org/2025/no-more...
wbhm.org/2025/no-more...
Reposted by Frank Harrell
LET ME BE PERFECTLY CLEAR: DOJ DID ALL OF THIS TO TRY AND STOP PAYMENTS TO PEOPLE UNDER AN ANTI-HUNGER PROGRAM.
Oh, this is wild.
DOJ went to SCOTUS *before* we got the First Circuit's administrative stay denial. (We know this because DOJ just filed a letter at SCOTUS about the admin stay denial.)
So, DOJ went to SCOTUS b/c the First Circuit did not meet its less-than-seven-hour "deadline" for a ruling.
DOJ went to SCOTUS *before* we got the First Circuit's administrative stay denial. (We know this because DOJ just filed a letter at SCOTUS about the admin stay denial.)
So, DOJ went to SCOTUS b/c the First Circuit did not meet its less-than-seven-hour "deadline" for a ruling.
November 8, 2025 at 12:06 AM
LET ME BE PERFECTLY CLEAR: DOJ DID ALL OF THIS TO TRY AND STOP PAYMENTS TO PEOPLE UNDER AN ANTI-HUNGER PROGRAM.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Weekend reads: Journal retracts ADHD intervention papers; ‘Science and the crisis of trust’; letters to editors surge
Weekend reads: Journal retracts ADHD intervention papers; ‘Science and the crisis of trust’; letters to editors surge
Former Australian science agency ecology researcher loses two papers Dozens of board members resign from big-data journal after mass staff firings Review mill in Italy targeting ob-gyn journals, re…
retractionwatch.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Weekend reads: Journal retracts ADHD intervention papers; ‘Science and the crisis of trust’; letters to editors surge
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Probably the papers I share the most often are @f2harrell.bsky.social 1996 on how to effectively develop multivariate models and @benvancalster.bsky.social 2019 paper on Calibration. Both extremely well written and informative. What are you most shared stats paper? #statistics #statssky #academicsky
November 7, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Probably the papers I share the most often are @f2harrell.bsky.social 1996 on how to effectively develop multivariate models and @benvancalster.bsky.social 2019 paper on Calibration. Both extremely well written and informative. What are you most shared stats paper? #statistics #statssky #academicsky
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Only too true 🤢
Interested in helping ICE protect the Homeland?
Check out the Lincoln Project's useful video guide!
open.substack.com/pub/therickw...
Check out the Lincoln Project's useful video guide!
open.substack.com/pub/therickw...
Your Guide To Working for ICE
Interested in joining ICE to defend the Homeland?
open.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Only too true 🤢
Wow I really like the constant alignment while showing extra information for “don’t know” category.
This is definitely an interesting idea for display of Likert scale data allowing for don't-know / didn't-answer
Just trying out a way of showing Don't knows/Didn't answers.
Calculating the percents of Trust level and Party, then multiplying the don't know by -1 and using geom_col()
#rstats
Calculating the percents of Trust level and Party, then multiplying the don't know by -1 and using geom_col()
#rstats
November 4, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Wow I really like the constant alignment while showing extra information for “don’t know” category.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
🎨 How to create elegant #dataviz with base #rstats and the #tinyplot pkg
📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
tinyplot: convenient and customizable base R plots - Grant McDermott
YouTube video by useR! Conference
www.youtube.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:38 AM
🎨 How to create elegant #dataviz with base #rstats and the #tinyplot pkg
📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
📈 useR! 2025 presentation by Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOB-...
Reposted by Frank Harrell
happy 11th anniversary to this email sent to all staff at the School of Mathematics and Statistics
November 4, 2025 at 2:16 AM
happy 11th anniversary to this email sent to all staff at the School of Mathematics and Statistics
Reposted by Frank Harrell
What he said: 💯 🎯
November 1, 2025 at 6:55 PM
What he said: 💯 🎯
Reposted by Frank Harrell
The target population for the research question is the population of people who would satisfy the eligibility criteria. “
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
November 1, 2025 at 7:03 PM
The target population for the research question is the population of people who would satisfy the eligibility criteria. “
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Who did this?!
November 1, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Who did this?!
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Tapping the sign:
October 28, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Tapping the sign:
Reposted by Frank Harrell
The Python Software Foundation got a competitive US research grant, but it came with a condition that they recant and abjure any diversity and inclusion ideas, on penalty of having to repay the money.
Obviously this is not desirable or safe, so no grant.
Donations would help them not regret this
Obviously this is not desirable or safe, so no grant.
Donations would help them not regret this
October 28, 2025 at 7:16 AM
The Python Software Foundation got a competitive US research grant, but it came with a condition that they recant and abjure any diversity and inclusion ideas, on penalty of having to repay the money.
Obviously this is not desirable or safe, so no grant.
Donations would help them not regret this
Obviously this is not desirable or safe, so no grant.
Donations would help them not regret this
Reposted by Frank Harrell
This is an excellent point that generalizes.
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.
But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.
But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
October 28, 2025 at 11:22 AM
This is an excellent point that generalizes.
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.
But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.
But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Reposted by Frank Harrell
"Because science rejects claims to truth based on authority and depends on the criticism of established ideas, it is the enemy of autocracy. Because scientific knowledge is tentative and provisional, it is the enemy of dogma. "
October 25, 2025 at 9:41 PM
"Because science rejects claims to truth based on authority and depends on the criticism of established ideas, it is the enemy of autocracy. Because scientific knowledge is tentative and provisional, it is the enemy of dogma. "
Reposted by Frank Harrell
Weekend reads: NEJM launches rival to MMWR; Former NIH official gets expression of concern; ‘1 in 5 chemists’ added errors to papers: study
Weekend reads: NEJM launches rival to MMWR; Former NIH official gets expression of concern; ‘1 in 5 chemists’ added errors to papers: study
Exclusive: Journal to retract Alzheimer’s study after investigation finds misconduct Less is more: Academic publishing needs ‘radical change,’ Cambridge press report concludes Exclusive: American H…
retractionwatch.com
October 25, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Weekend reads: NEJM launches rival to MMWR; Former NIH official gets expression of concern; ‘1 in 5 chemists’ added errors to papers: study