Eric Finnigan
@ericfinnigan.jbrec.com
Charts & data on US demographics, housing, real estate, migration, immigration, econ/finance.
VP Demographics Research @ John Burns Research and Consulting
📍 Boulder, CO
VP Demographics Research @ John Burns Research and Consulting
📍 Boulder, CO
2025 feels early 2000s-ish. Solid GDP and a terrible job market.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
October 27, 2025 at 7:31 PM
2025 feels early 2000s-ish. Solid GDP and a terrible job market.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Lines up with research we sent to clients last week calling out Walmart HQ's metro as 1 of ~15 local housing markets most exposed to H-1B changes, based on analysis of loan-level data by citizenship status.
October 21, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Lines up with research we sent to clients last week calling out Walmart HQ's metro as 1 of ~15 local housing markets most exposed to H-1B changes, based on analysis of loan-level data by citizenship status.
2 recent immigration policy shifts affecting housing:
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
October 14, 2025 at 4:22 PM
2 recent immigration policy shifts affecting housing:
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July
August 28, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July
Waller: Payroll jobs likely declined May-July
"After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]."
www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...
"After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]."
www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...
Economic Club of Miami hosts Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller
YouTube video by The Economic Club of Miami
www.youtube.com
August 28, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Waller: Payroll jobs likely declined May-July
"After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]."
www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...
"After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]."
www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...
Worth watching:
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
August 26, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Worth watching:
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Our internal data shows households moving between metro areas spiked in 2021 and has fallen by 29% since.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
August 15, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Our internal data shows households moving between metro areas spiked in 2021 and has fallen by 29% since.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Reposted by Eric Finnigan
To add to this: The foreign-born sample in CPS is -12% since last August. Nativity is not part of population controls, so assuming the foreign-born population didn't drop 12%, weighted results will show declining numbers of immigrants. So looks like fewer immigrant workers. Don't use CPS for this.
August 13, 2025 at 6:38 PM
To add to this: The foreign-born sample in CPS is -12% since last August. Nativity is not part of population controls, so assuming the foreign-born population didn't drop 12%, weighted results will show declining numbers of immigrants. So looks like fewer immigrant workers. Don't use CPS for this.
Two charts on shifting housing demand:
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
August 11, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Two charts on shifting housing demand:
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
Opening move to a citizenship question in the 2030 Census?
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
August 7, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Opening move to a citizenship question in the 2030 Census?
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
Reposted by Eric Finnigan
Native born employment and population may appear higher because… people are now self reporting that they were born in the US rather than abroad.
August 7, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Native born employment and population may appear higher because… people are now self reporting that they were born in the US rather than abroad.
Immigrants are leaving the US workforce in very large numbers.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
August 3, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Immigrants are leaving the US workforce in very large numbers.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
Reposted by Eric Finnigan
Affordability is rerouting housing growth. @conorsen.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com cites research from @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com and Chris Porter of @jbrec.com on migration shifts from Austin to San Antonio and beyond.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Hello Spartanburg! The Affordability Migration Finds New Homes
A challenging housing market is drawing builders to cities where they can build homes at the right price point.
www.bloomberg.com
July 29, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Affordability is rerouting housing growth. @conorsen.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com cites research from @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com and Chris Porter of @jbrec.com on migration shifts from Austin to San Antonio and beyond.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Labor costs aren't currently going up for homebuilders because we're in a homebuilding recession.
I'm thinking about the next cycle, and the 1.4M new homes needed every year to keep up with household growth.
Watch out for "hockey stick"-shaped labor cost inflation in the next cycle.
I'm thinking about the next cycle, and the 1.4M new homes needed every year to keep up with household growth.
Watch out for "hockey stick"-shaped labor cost inflation in the next cycle.
ICE raids are hitting Western Union's US→Mexico money-sending business.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
July 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Labor costs aren't currently going up for homebuilders because we're in a homebuilding recession.
I'm thinking about the next cycle, and the 1.4M new homes needed every year to keep up with household growth.
Watch out for "hockey stick"-shaped labor cost inflation in the next cycle.
I'm thinking about the next cycle, and the 1.4M new homes needed every year to keep up with household growth.
Watch out for "hockey stick"-shaped labor cost inflation in the next cycle.
ICE raids are hitting Western Union's US→Mexico money-sending business.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
July 29, 2025 at 5:36 PM
ICE raids are hitting Western Union's US→Mexico money-sending business.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
We called out the importance of shorter-distance, affordability-driven migration back in March 2024, highlighting 3 other markets - Austin, Orlando, and Denver.
jbrec.com/insights/3-m...
jbrec.com/insights/3-m...
July 21, 2025 at 11:00 PM
We called out the importance of shorter-distance, affordability-driven migration back in March 2024, highlighting 3 other markets - Austin, Orlando, and Denver.
jbrec.com/insights/3-m...
jbrec.com/insights/3-m...
When resale housing warms back up, I believe this story is a taste of what's coming.
Affordability-driven migration will create new winners & losers. It'll be fascinating to watch.
That said, Atlanta has begun looking better in our internal migration data (through May 2025).
Affordability-driven migration will create new winners & losers. It'll be fascinating to watch.
That said, Atlanta has begun looking better in our internal migration data (through May 2025).
With the huge caveat that the sluggish resale housing market is muddying a lot of migration trends, if you’re 35+ and just want to own a house and have any old job I do think places like Greenville and Chattanooga have a higher quality of life than exurban Atlanta: www.wsj.com/economy/atla...
Atlanta’s Growth Streak Has Come to an End
“Welcome South, Brother” is turning into goodbye as many residents look to smaller, more affordable metro areas.
www.wsj.com
July 21, 2025 at 10:39 PM
When resale housing warms back up, I believe this story is a taste of what's coming.
Affordability-driven migration will create new winners & losers. It'll be fascinating to watch.
That said, Atlanta has begun looking better in our internal migration data (through May 2025).
Affordability-driven migration will create new winners & losers. It'll be fascinating to watch.
That said, Atlanta has begun looking better in our internal migration data (through May 2025).
WILDLY different from early 2010s when millennials flocked to coastal mega-cities to work in tech and media.
Geography of real estate and housing is undergoing similar shifts.
Geography of real estate and housing is undergoing similar shifts.
July 18, 2025 at 6:26 PM
WILDLY different from early 2010s when millennials flocked to coastal mega-cities to work in tech and media.
Geography of real estate and housing is undergoing similar shifts.
Geography of real estate and housing is undergoing similar shifts.
Homebuilders and remodeling contractors in our surveys have let us know about ICE raids' effect on residential construction over the past few months.
Worth keeping an eye on this, as the BBB includes $170 billion in funding for larger-scale deportations.
Worth keeping an eye on this, as the BBB includes $170 billion in funding for larger-scale deportations.
ICE arrests hit over 1,000 per day in June.
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
July 16, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Homebuilders and remodeling contractors in our surveys have let us know about ICE raids' effect on residential construction over the past few months.
Worth keeping an eye on this, as the BBB includes $170 billion in funding for larger-scale deportations.
Worth keeping an eye on this, as the BBB includes $170 billion in funding for larger-scale deportations.
ICE arrests hit over 1,000 per day in June.
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
July 16, 2025 at 10:50 PM
ICE arrests hit over 1,000 per day in June.
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
Why is Gen Z different? Important context here...
And in some ways, this probably understates the inflation effect by leaving out student loan burdens.
Millennials took out a lot of student debt too, but could refi during ZIRP.
And in some ways, this probably understates the inflation effect by leaving out student loan burdens.
Millennials took out a lot of student debt too, but could refi during ZIRP.
July 9, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Why is Gen Z different? Important context here...
And in some ways, this probably understates the inflation effect by leaving out student loan burdens.
Millennials took out a lot of student debt too, but could refi during ZIRP.
And in some ways, this probably understates the inflation effect by leaving out student loan burdens.
Millennials took out a lot of student debt too, but could refi during ZIRP.
On Sumitomo Forestry's $29M acquisition of Teal Jones Louisiana Holdings:
"Sumitomo is now positioned to control the supply of a key input (Southern Yellow Pine lumber) from forest to frame."
www.thebuildersdaily.com/sumitomos-ti...
"Sumitomo is now positioned to control the supply of a key input (Southern Yellow Pine lumber) from forest to frame."
www.thebuildersdaily.com/sumitomos-ti...
Sumitomo's Timber Complex Sharpens Its Edge Of Integration
The $29M Teal Jones acquisition solidifies Sumitomo’s strategy: Develop and own the lots, control the materials, manage the build cycle ... and thereby reshape the market.
www.thebuildersdaily.com
July 8, 2025 at 8:59 PM
On Sumitomo Forestry's $29M acquisition of Teal Jones Louisiana Holdings:
"Sumitomo is now positioned to control the supply of a key input (Southern Yellow Pine lumber) from forest to frame."
www.thebuildersdaily.com/sumitomos-ti...
"Sumitomo is now positioned to control the supply of a key input (Southern Yellow Pine lumber) from forest to frame."
www.thebuildersdaily.com/sumitomos-ti...
This matches a chart we've been showing clients this year, namely that the immigrant surge filled up vacant rentals, mostly in small apartment buildings.
June 30, 2025 at 2:47 PM
This matches a chart we've been showing clients this year, namely that the immigrant surge filled up vacant rentals, mostly in small apartment buildings.
College town vs. Retirement community:
Madison County, ID (home of 17,000 BYU-Idaho students) and Sumter County, FL (aka The Villages) show the extreme demographic differences within the US.
Madison County, ID (home of 17,000 BYU-Idaho students) and Sumter County, FL (aka The Villages) show the extreme demographic differences within the US.
June 27, 2025 at 9:50 PM
College town vs. Retirement community:
Madison County, ID (home of 17,000 BYU-Idaho students) and Sumter County, FL (aka The Villages) show the extreme demographic differences within the US.
Madison County, ID (home of 17,000 BYU-Idaho students) and Sumter County, FL (aka The Villages) show the extreme demographic differences within the US.
99.6% of the 2024 increase in Hispanic population experiencing homelessness were counted as "sheltered."
NYC and Chicago put migrants in hotels, just like Denver
www.npr.org/2023/11/08/1...
NYC and Chicago put migrants in hotels, just like Denver
www.npr.org/2023/11/08/1...
June 12, 2025 at 5:04 PM
99.6% of the 2024 increase in Hispanic population experiencing homelessness were counted as "sheltered."
NYC and Chicago put migrants in hotels, just like Denver
www.npr.org/2023/11/08/1...
NYC and Chicago put migrants in hotels, just like Denver
www.npr.org/2023/11/08/1...