Eric Finnigan
@ericfinnigan.jbrec.com
Charts & data on US demographics, housing, real estate, migration, immigration, econ/finance.
VP Demographics Research @ John Burns Research and Consulting
📍 Boulder, CO
VP Demographics Research @ John Burns Research and Consulting
📍 Boulder, CO
2025 feels early 2000s-ish. Solid GDP and a terrible job market.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
October 27, 2025 at 7:31 PM
2025 feels early 2000s-ish. Solid GDP and a terrible job market.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Lines up with research we sent to clients last week calling out Walmart HQ's metro as 1 of ~15 local housing markets most exposed to H-1B changes, based on analysis of loan-level data by citizenship status.
October 21, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Lines up with research we sent to clients last week calling out Walmart HQ's metro as 1 of ~15 local housing markets most exposed to H-1B changes, based on analysis of loan-level data by citizenship status.
2 recent immigration policy shifts affecting housing:
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
October 14, 2025 at 4:22 PM
2 recent immigration policy shifts affecting housing:
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
One of the big themes I presented for clients yesterday was households hunkering down as job security becomes primary concern. In other words, need to see a bigger price change (or better job security) to bring more buyers back.
September 19, 2025 at 3:49 PM
One of the big themes I presented for clients yesterday was households hunkering down as job security becomes primary concern. In other words, need to see a bigger price change (or better job security) to bring more buyers back.
Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July
August 28, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July
And the cherry on top:
August 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
And the cherry on top:
Worth watching:
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
August 26, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Worth watching:
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Reminds me of this from The Economist, each generation is also paid better than the previous at any given life stage.
Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
August 17, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Reminds me of this from The Economist, each generation is also paid better than the previous at any given life stage.
Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Our internal data shows households moving between metro areas spiked in 2021 and has fallen by 29% since.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
August 15, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Our internal data shows households moving between metro areas spiked in 2021 and has fallen by 29% since.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Two charts on shifting housing demand:
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
August 11, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Two charts on shifting housing demand:
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
Opening move to a citizenship question in the 2030 Census?
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
August 7, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Opening move to a citizenship question in the 2030 Census?
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
You might be surprised how good the reporting/coverage has been, although it's not perfect.
From Gad Levanon (Burning Glass):
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
From Gad Levanon (Burning Glass):
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
August 4, 2025 at 5:23 PM
You might be surprised how good the reporting/coverage has been, although it's not perfect.
From Gad Levanon (Burning Glass):
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
From Gad Levanon (Burning Glass):
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
Immigrants are leaving the US workforce in very large numbers.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
August 3, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Immigrants are leaving the US workforce in very large numbers.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
ICE raids are hitting Western Union's US→Mexico money-sending business.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
July 29, 2025 at 5:36 PM
ICE raids are hitting Western Union's US→Mexico money-sending business.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
I think you're right to be skeptical, in addition to the usual caveats about peering through messy seasonal adjustments and a single month of data.
July 29, 2025 at 5:06 PM
I think you're right to be skeptical, in addition to the usual caveats about peering through messy seasonal adjustments and a single month of data.
Hispanic homeownership rate is 49%.
Among recent immigrants, it's 18% (not pictured).
Interesting relationship but ultimately spurious.
Among recent immigrants, it's 18% (not pictured).
Interesting relationship but ultimately spurious.
July 29, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Hispanic homeownership rate is 49%.
Among recent immigrants, it's 18% (not pictured).
Interesting relationship but ultimately spurious.
Among recent immigrants, it's 18% (not pictured).
Interesting relationship but ultimately spurious.
We called out the importance of shorter-distance, affordability-driven migration back in March 2024, highlighting 3 other markets - Austin, Orlando, and Denver.
jbrec.com/insights/3-m...
jbrec.com/insights/3-m...
July 21, 2025 at 11:00 PM
We called out the importance of shorter-distance, affordability-driven migration back in March 2024, highlighting 3 other markets - Austin, Orlando, and Denver.
jbrec.com/insights/3-m...
jbrec.com/insights/3-m...
WILDLY different from early 2010s when millennials flocked to coastal mega-cities to work in tech and media.
Geography of real estate and housing is undergoing similar shifts.
Geography of real estate and housing is undergoing similar shifts.
July 18, 2025 at 6:26 PM
WILDLY different from early 2010s when millennials flocked to coastal mega-cities to work in tech and media.
Geography of real estate and housing is undergoing similar shifts.
Geography of real estate and housing is undergoing similar shifts.
ICE arrests hit over 1,000 per day in June.
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
July 16, 2025 at 10:50 PM
ICE arrests hit over 1,000 per day in June.
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
Today's Fed Beige Book mentions 5 ways this is impacting companies and consumers (🧵)
Why is Gen Z different? Important context here...
And in some ways, this probably understates the inflation effect by leaving out student loan burdens.
Millennials took out a lot of student debt too, but could refi during ZIRP.
And in some ways, this probably understates the inflation effect by leaving out student loan burdens.
Millennials took out a lot of student debt too, but could refi during ZIRP.
July 9, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Why is Gen Z different? Important context here...
And in some ways, this probably understates the inflation effect by leaving out student loan burdens.
Millennials took out a lot of student debt too, but could refi during ZIRP.
And in some ways, this probably understates the inflation effect by leaving out student loan burdens.
Millennials took out a lot of student debt too, but could refi during ZIRP.
This matches a chart we've been showing clients this year, namely that the immigrant surge filled up vacant rentals, mostly in small apartment buildings.
June 30, 2025 at 2:47 PM
This matches a chart we've been showing clients this year, namely that the immigrant surge filled up vacant rentals, mostly in small apartment buildings.
College town vs. Retirement community:
Madison County, ID (home of 17,000 BYU-Idaho students) and Sumter County, FL (aka The Villages) show the extreme demographic differences within the US.
Madison County, ID (home of 17,000 BYU-Idaho students) and Sumter County, FL (aka The Villages) show the extreme demographic differences within the US.
June 27, 2025 at 9:50 PM
College town vs. Retirement community:
Madison County, ID (home of 17,000 BYU-Idaho students) and Sumter County, FL (aka The Villages) show the extreme demographic differences within the US.
Madison County, ID (home of 17,000 BYU-Idaho students) and Sumter County, FL (aka The Villages) show the extreme demographic differences within the US.
Denver converted some hotels into temporary migrant shelters. These 800 mentioned would be experiencing homelessness. So, consistent with immigration surge being a big causal factor.
www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...
www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...
June 11, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Denver converted some hotels into temporary migrant shelters. These 800 mentioned would be experiencing homelessness. So, consistent with immigration surge being a big causal factor.
www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...
www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...
Why are teen pregnancies so rare today? Turns out kids don't want kids of their own (yet).
June 9, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Why are teen pregnancies so rare today? Turns out kids don't want kids of their own (yet).
Also this, 2010's Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program
June 9, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Also this, 2010's Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program