Eric Brewer
@ebrewer.bsky.social
Deputy VP at Nuclear Threat Initiative. Previously Director for Counterproliferation at the National Security Council and Deputy National Intelligence Officer for WMD at the National Intelligence Council. Personal account/views my own.
Told Francois Murphy that "a strike by the United States could probably cause more damage than an Israeli strike, but in either case you're talking about buying time and there's a real risk that it drives Iran toward rather than away from a bomb.”
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Would military strikes kill Iran's nuclear programme? Probably not
The recent U.S. deployment of B-2 bombers, the only planes able to launch the most powerful bunker-busting bombs, to within range of Iran is a potent signal to Tehran of what could happen to its nuclear programme if no deal is reached to rein it in.
www.reuters.com
April 15, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Told Francois Murphy that "a strike by the United States could probably cause more damage than an Israeli strike, but in either case you're talking about buying time and there's a real risk that it drives Iran toward rather than away from a bomb.”
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Lots of focus on what the U.S. end goal should be as part of nuclear talks with Iran. Fair. But Witkoff needs to staff up, and fast. These talks are highly technical and he’s going to need both nuclear and sanctions experts. Doing otherwise is courting disaster.
April 14, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Lots of focus on what the U.S. end goal should be as part of nuclear talks with Iran. Fair. But Witkoff needs to staff up, and fast. These talks are highly technical and he’s going to need both nuclear and sanctions experts. Doing otherwise is courting disaster.
Sec Wright: “We’ve not reached the details on an agreement, but it certainly looks like there is a pathway to do that…The issue is control of sensitive technology. Are there solutions to that that involve enrichment here in Saudi Arabia? Yes.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/w...
U.S. Revives Talks With Saudi Arabia on Transfer of Nuclear Technology
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he sees a “pathway” to a deal that would allow the kingdom to develop a commercial nuclear power industry and potentially enrich uranium.
www.nytimes.com
April 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Sec Wright: “We’ve not reached the details on an agreement, but it certainly looks like there is a pathway to do that…The issue is control of sensitive technology. Are there solutions to that that involve enrichment here in Saudi Arabia? Yes.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/w...
Reposted by Eric Brewer
“You can remove centrifuges, but you can't remove that knowledge... Even if you remove those machines and dilute and cap the material, Iran is starting from a much more advanced place today than it was in 2015," says NTI's @ebrewer.bsky.social ⤵️
How Iran’s nuclear gains complicate Trump's desire for a 'stronger' deal
President Trump says he's seeking an Iranian nuclear deal stronger than the one he trashed in his first term. But with Iran's nuclear program more advanced than ever before, is that even possible?
www.al-monitor.com
April 11, 2025 at 6:48 PM
“You can remove centrifuges, but you can't remove that knowledge... Even if you remove those machines and dilute and cap the material, Iran is starting from a much more advanced place today than it was in 2015," says NTI's @ebrewer.bsky.social ⤵️
Quoted: “There is growing doubt among allies and partners about whether the United States will meet its defense commitments when the chips are down…But there are a lot of other systemic factors driving countries to talk about developing nuclear weapons.”
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War
The threat of U.S. withdrawal has prompted countries around the world — from Germany to South Korea — to talk about building their own nuclear arsenals.
www.politico.com
April 12, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Quoted: “There is growing doubt among allies and partners about whether the United States will meet its defense commitments when the chips are down…But there are a lot of other systemic factors driving countries to talk about developing nuclear weapons.”
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Advisor to the Supreme Leader 👇
The conditions (“continuation of external threats and being in a state of military attack”) are pretty ambiguous and leave a lot of room for flexibility, as do the threatened consequences.
The conditions (“continuation of external threats and being in a state of military attack”) are pretty ambiguous and leave a lot of room for flexibility, as do the threatened consequences.
April 10, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Advisor to the Supreme Leader 👇
The conditions (“continuation of external threats and being in a state of military attack”) are pretty ambiguous and leave a lot of room for flexibility, as do the threatened consequences.
The conditions (“continuation of external threats and being in a state of military attack”) are pretty ambiguous and leave a lot of room for flexibility, as do the threatened consequences.
Sanctioning Iranian entities involved in enrichment ahead of U.S.-Iran talks certainly seems like a signal to Tehran that Washington has no intention of accepting that enrichment program under any agreement.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
Treasury Imposes Sanctions on Enablers of Iran’s Nuclear Program
WASHINGTON — Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating five entities and one individual based in Iran for their support to key entities that manage...
home.treasury.gov
April 9, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Sanctioning Iranian entities involved in enrichment ahead of U.S.-Iran talks certainly seems like a signal to Tehran that Washington has no intention of accepting that enrichment program under any agreement.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
Far more important than whether US-Iran talks are direct or indirect is how the Trump admin approaches these first meetings. Does it frame its goal as making sure Iran can’t produce a nuclear weapon? Or that Iran needs to dismantle its entire nuclear infrastructure? 1/
April 8, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Far more important than whether US-Iran talks are direct or indirect is how the Trump admin approaches these first meetings. Does it frame its goal as making sure Iran can’t produce a nuclear weapon? Or that Iran needs to dismantle its entire nuclear infrastructure? 1/
Tensions between Iran and the US are heating up. The US is flowing more forces into the region as both sides exchange threats. Direct talks appear unlikely for now, and time for a deal is short. How might Khamenei manage what is likely to be a perilous ~6 months? I see four options. 1/
April 2, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Tensions between Iran and the US are heating up. The US is flowing more forces into the region as both sides exchange threats. Direct talks appear unlikely for now, and time for a deal is short. How might Khamenei manage what is likely to be a perilous ~6 months? I see four options. 1/
Excited to see this panel at Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Conference - “Back to the Future? Nuclear Proliferation Risks in an Era of Uncertainty,” featuring the 3 co-chairs (and 1 member) of the NTI-CEIP-Belfer Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and US Nat Sec.
carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
2025 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference
For over 35 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonpro...
carnegieendowment.org
March 28, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Excited to see this panel at Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Conference - “Back to the Future? Nuclear Proliferation Risks in an Era of Uncertainty,” featuring the 3 co-chairs (and 1 member) of the NTI-CEIP-Belfer Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and US Nat Sec.
carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
Quite the line here in the Annual Threat Assessment: “Iranian leaders recognize the country is at one of its most fragile points since the Iran-Iraq War”
March 26, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Quite the line here in the Annual Threat Assessment: “Iranian leaders recognize the country is at one of its most fragile points since the Iran-Iraq War”
Although largely overshadowed by the Signal debacle in today’s hearing, the IC’s Annual Threat Assessment is worth reading. Interesting info in particular on Iran’s strategic situation in the region, Russia/Ukraine, and Russia-Iran-China-DPRK collab.
www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
www.dni.gov
March 25, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Although largely overshadowed by the Signal debacle in today’s hearing, the IC’s Annual Threat Assessment is worth reading. Interesting info in particular on Iran’s strategic situation in the region, Russia/Ukraine, and Russia-Iran-China-DPRK collab.
www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
I think the seemingly different takes by Waltz and Witkoff over the goals of U.S. Iran policy stem at least in part from the fact that Trump himself has been inconsistent on this issue.
www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/mik...
www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/mik...
Transcript: National Security Adviser Mike Waltz "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," March 23, 2025
The following is the transcript of an interview with National Security Adviser Mike Waltz that aired on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on March 23, 2025.
www.cbsnews.com
March 23, 2025 at 7:48 PM
I think the seemingly different takes by Waltz and Witkoff over the goals of U.S. Iran policy stem at least in part from the fact that Trump himself has been inconsistent on this issue.
www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/mik...
www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/mik...
Pleased to share my thoughts with Patrick Tucker for his piece on the growing risk of proliferation by U.S. allies, including some of the challenges and risks they would face in actually developing nuclear weapons.
www.defenseone.com/threats/2025...
www.defenseone.com/threats/2025...
Experts fear cascade of nuclear proliferation as Trump shakes alliances
U.S. allies contemplate the once-unthinkable: building their own nuclear arsenals.
www.defenseone.com
March 12, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Pleased to share my thoughts with Patrick Tucker for his piece on the growing risk of proliferation by U.S. allies, including some of the challenges and risks they would face in actually developing nuclear weapons.
www.defenseone.com/threats/2025...
www.defenseone.com/threats/2025...
With the U.S. tilt toward Russia (and away from Europe) and reports of Russia acting as an intermediary between the U.S. and Iran, what are the implications for nuclear talks and a new deal with Tehran? A few thoughts. 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Putin Agrees to Help Trump Broker Nuclear Talks With Iran
Russia agreed to assist US President Donald Trump’s administration in communicating with Iran on issues including the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and its support for regional anti-US proxies, a...
www.bloomberg.com
March 7, 2025 at 10:38 PM
With the U.S. tilt toward Russia (and away from Europe) and reports of Russia acting as an intermediary between the U.S. and Iran, what are the implications for nuclear talks and a new deal with Tehran? A few thoughts. 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Poland’s PM calls for the development of nuclear weapons.
March 7, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Poland’s PM calls for the development of nuclear weapons.
Reposted by Eric Brewer
Reposted by Eric Brewer
"Developing nuclear weapons to counter North Korea is not 'off the table' for South Korea, foreign minister Cho Tae-yul stated on Wednesday"
In shift, South Korea’s top diplomat says nuclear armament ‘not off the table’ | NK News
Developing nuclear weapons to counter North Korea is not “off the table” for South Korea, foreign minister Cho Tae-yul stated on Wednesday, appearing to shift his rhetoric on the issue amid concerns…
www.nknews.org
February 27, 2025 at 3:55 PM
"Developing nuclear weapons to counter North Korea is not 'off the table' for South Korea, foreign minister Cho Tae-yul stated on Wednesday"
Lots to digest here, but let’s not overlook that it’s now late Feb and there’s been no conversation between IAEA DG Grossi and the Trump admin. With Iran’s program growing and major decisions looming, U.S. needs to get its house in order on Iran policy. And fast.
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Iran Has Enough Highly Enriched Uranium for Six Nuclear Weapons
Iran has sharply increased its stockpile of a critical raw material for atomic weapons, according to a confidential U.N. report.
www.wsj.com
February 26, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Lots to digest here, but let’s not overlook that it’s now late Feb and there’s been no conversation between IAEA DG Grossi and the Trump admin. With Iran’s program growing and major decisions looming, U.S. needs to get its house in order on Iran policy. And fast.
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
“These officials wrote that they ‘will not use our skills as technologists to compromise core government systems, jeopardize Americans' sensitive data, or dismantle critical public services.’”
www.cbsnews.com/news/doge-st...
www.cbsnews.com/news/doge-st...
21 DOGE staffers, whose employment predated Musk agency, resign
The officials wrote in a letter that they "will not lend our expertise to carry out or legitimize DOGE's actions."
www.cbsnews.com
February 25, 2025 at 11:58 PM
“These officials wrote that they ‘will not use our skills as technologists to compromise core government systems, jeopardize Americans' sensitive data, or dismantle critical public services.’”
www.cbsnews.com/news/doge-st...
www.cbsnews.com/news/doge-st...
This isn’t about accountability. It’s a campaign of harassment—carried out by an unelected and unappointed individual— designed to demoralize the federal workforce and drive people to quit.
February 22, 2025 at 10:22 PM
This isn’t about accountability. It’s a campaign of harassment—carried out by an unelected and unappointed individual— designed to demoralize the federal workforce and drive people to quit.
Reposted by Eric Brewer
Dmitry Medvedev, the former President of Russia and the Deputy Chair of the Security Council, on President Trump’s post about Ukraine and Zelenskyy this morning.
February 20, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Dmitry Medvedev, the former President of Russia and the Deputy Chair of the Security Council, on President Trump’s post about Ukraine and Zelenskyy this morning.
Reposted by Eric Brewer
Good men & women in EUCOM are—as they've done every month since Feb 2022—actively helping track & repel this aerial assault. Meanwhile their commander-in-chief at home is actively attacking Ukraine's president, while handing concession after concession to the state firing the missiles.
Russia is attacking Kyiv right now. Powerful explosions are shaking the capital. Authorities report air defense in action.
February 19, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Good men & women in EUCOM are—as they've done every month since Feb 2022—actively helping track & repel this aerial assault. Meanwhile their commander-in-chief at home is actively attacking Ukraine's president, while handing concession after concession to the state firing the missiles.
Reposted by Eric Brewer
The common thread here is that you if you don't like what Trump is doing, don't just complain and wait. Take action now to regain the initiative -- and inspire others to do the same!
February 19, 2025 at 8:49 PM
The common thread here is that you if you don't like what Trump is doing, don't just complain and wait. Take action now to regain the initiative -- and inspire others to do the same!