Dan Pemstein
@danpemstein.com
Political economist working mostly on democratic institutions, tech, political careers and party org, and measurement. http://www.danpemstein.com
https://digitalsocietyproject.org
https://digitalsocietyproject.org
Pinned
Dan Pemstein
@danpemstein.com
· Jun 2
Happy to share this paper with Jeevan Baniya, @smeserve.bsky.social, and Brigitte Seim. We used multiple survey experiments to see how Nepali voters think about the trade-off between vote-buying and candidate provision of local public goods (schools, plumbing) in office. doi.org/10.1111/ajps... 1/
You probably never had a chance to eat at Bernbaum's, which is a shame. But now there's a cookbook! (although yours will likely not be signed and unexpectedly hand-delivered by the author) www.dottirpress.com/bernbaums
December 25, 2025 at 4:02 PM
You probably never had a chance to eat at Bernbaum's, which is a shame. But now there's a cookbook! (although yours will likely not be signed and unexpectedly hand-delivered by the author) www.dottirpress.com/bernbaums
TBF, people under 65 are watching a 60 Minutes spot today.
December 23, 2025 at 12:00 AM
TBF, people under 65 are watching a 60 Minutes spot today.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
In a world of Sundown Towns where Black people weren’t allowed after nightfall, Green Book businesses were tiny spots of light. Traveling while Black was about survival. The Green Book Project documents that history:
greenbookproject.org.ohio-state.edu #GreenBookProject #CommunityMap #EconSky
greenbookproject.org.ohio-state.edu #GreenBookProject #CommunityMap #EconSky
December 22, 2025 at 2:13 PM
In a world of Sundown Towns where Black people weren’t allowed after nightfall, Green Book businesses were tiny spots of light. Traveling while Black was about survival. The Green Book Project documents that history:
greenbookproject.org.ohio-state.edu #GreenBookProject #CommunityMap #EconSky
greenbookproject.org.ohio-state.edu #GreenBookProject #CommunityMap #EconSky
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Small-d democrats have little or nothing to learn about how to govern from the audacious lawlessness of the Trump regime, so argues @donmoyn.bsky.social.
Demolition isn't building, & action isn't achievement. The goals of the movements are fundamentally at odds, so the methods don't translate.
Demolition isn't building, & action isn't achievement. The goals of the movements are fundamentally at odds, so the methods don't translate.
Democrats need a theory of power, but democracies need a theory of accountability
No, the Trump administration is not a model for how to get things done
donmoynihan.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Small-d democrats have little or nothing to learn about how to govern from the audacious lawlessness of the Trump regime, so argues @donmoyn.bsky.social.
Demolition isn't building, & action isn't achievement. The goals of the movements are fundamentally at odds, so the methods don't translate.
Demolition isn't building, & action isn't achievement. The goals of the movements are fundamentally at odds, so the methods don't translate.
NSF panels were a form of service that always felt truly worthwhile. All systems are flawed but this one seemed to work pretty well.
NSF plans to streamline merit review to heal self-inflicted staffing wound www.science.org/content/arti...
NSF pares down grant-review process, reducing influence of outside scientists
Memo cites overburdened staff, but some say move also aims to elevate White House priorities
www.science.org
December 16, 2025 at 3:50 PM
NSF panels were a form of service that always felt truly worthwhile. All systems are flawed but this one seemed to work pretty well.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
This is what government censorship actually looks like: defunding entire fields, deporting researchers, and quite effectively chilling speech that helps people understand how our information systems are being exploited and calls out powerful people and platforms for their bullshit.
For the last decade, the pervasive spread of bullshit & manipulation of online platforms have been widely recognized societal concerns. Now non US citizens studying those subjects can be labeled “censors” & denied visas or deported from the US. Censorship, indeed. www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Exclusive: Trump administration orders enhanced vetting for applicants of H-1B visa
An internal State Department memo said that anyone involved in "censorship" of free speech should be considered for rejection.
www.reuters.com
December 4, 2025 at 5:27 PM
This is what government censorship actually looks like: defunding entire fields, deporting researchers, and quite effectively chilling speech that helps people understand how our information systems are being exploited and calls out powerful people and platforms for their bullshit.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
I'm going to sound like a broken record by the way I keep mentioning how 95% of Somalis in the Twin Cities metro area are US citizens, but very few mainstream outlets are pointing this out.
This should be very basic stuff for any news organization.
This should be very basic stuff for any news organization.
December 3, 2025 at 11:44 PM
I'm going to sound like a broken record by the way I keep mentioning how 95% of Somalis in the Twin Cities metro area are US citizens, but very few mainstream outlets are pointing this out.
This should be very basic stuff for any news organization.
This should be very basic stuff for any news organization.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
This fetid landmark, this historical stain on humanity is primarily due to the stunningly reckless obliteration of America's foreign assistance agency earlier this year.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
For First Time in Decades, Child Deaths Will Rise This Year
Almost a quarter of a million more children around the world are projected to die in 2025 than in 2024.
www.wsj.com
December 4, 2025 at 4:18 PM
This fetid landmark, this historical stain on humanity is primarily due to the stunningly reckless obliteration of America's foreign assistance agency earlier this year.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
when someone tells me not to use em dashes because AI uses em dashes
November 30, 2025 at 7:48 PM
when someone tells me not to use em dashes because AI uses em dashes
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Completely missed this over the weekend; Fox was a giant. I use {car} virtually every time I boot up R. #RIP
#rstats
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca
John Fox: Books and Software
www.john-fox.ca
November 30, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Completely missed this over the weekend; Fox was a giant. I use {car} virtually every time I boot up R. #RIP
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Looks like LLMs are *very* vulnerable to attack via poetic allusion: "curated poetic prompts yielded high attack-success rates (ASR), with some providers exceeding 90% ..."
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
November 20, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Looks like LLMs are *very* vulnerable to attack via poetic allusion: "curated poetic prompts yielded high attack-success rates (ASR), with some providers exceeding 90% ..."
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Just published a deep look at where open social networks stand in 2025: Mastodon’s leadership change, Bluesky’s trajectory, AT Protocol, ActivityPub, cross-network tools, and more. For newsrooms and public service orgs, this moment really matters. werd.io/the-state-of...
The State of the Open Social Web
A comprehensive look at Mastodon, Bluesky, and the growing ecosystem of open, interoperable social networks.
werd.io
November 18, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Just published a deep look at where open social networks stand in 2025: Mastodon’s leadership change, Bluesky’s trajectory, AT Protocol, ActivityPub, cross-network tools, and more. For newsrooms and public service orgs, this moment really matters. werd.io/the-state-of...
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
WE JUST KEEP WINNING. (UC President's Postdoctoral Fellowship Program RESTORED!!!!)
![On official UC letterhead:
UNIVERSITY
OF
CALIFORNIA
James B. Milliken President
Office of the President
1111 Franklin Street Oakland, CA 94607
universityofcalifornia.edu
CAMPUSES Berkeley
Davis
Irvine
UCLA
Merced
Riverside San Diego San Francisco
Santa Barbara Santa Cruz
MEDICAL CENTERS
Davis
Irvine
UCLA
San Diego
San Francisco
NATIONAL LABORATORIES Lawrence Berkeley Lawrence Livermore Los Alamos
DIVISION OF AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
November 18, 2025
Dear Chancellors:
I'm writing with regard to the President's Postdoctoral Fellowship Program (PPFP) and the program's associated faculty hiring incentive.
As you know, for more than 40 years, PPFP has provided postdoctoral research fellowships, professional development, and faculty mentoring to scholars in all fields whose research, teaching, and service advance the academic and research missions of the University of California.
Since 2003, UC campuses that hire current and former PPFP fellows into ladder-rank positions have been eligible for a hiring incentive funded by the University that provides support for newly hired fellows for five years. Since the creation of the incentive, more than $162 million has been invested by the University to support PPFP faculty hires. This commitment has enabled our campuses to successfully recruit and retain outstanding faculty across a range of disciplines.
Given the myriad challenges currently facing UC - including disruptions to billions of dollars in annual federal support, as well as uncertainty around the state budget- reasonable questions were raised in recent months about whether the University could maintain the commitment to current levels of incentive funding. After considering a recommendation to sunset the incentive program due to these significant fiscal constraints, I consulted with all of you as well as faculty and campus academic administrators and systemwide Academic Senate leadership.
[continued on next image]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rzn6yramffebefeitqifiqqz/bafkreigiwq5ongzwpj4wqmgjam3yfvhyjnv5e3dbq6cnrrbwblqvs624gq@jpeg)
November 18, 2025 at 10:34 PM
WE JUST KEEP WINNING. (UC President's Postdoctoral Fellowship Program RESTORED!!!!)
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
I would love to read an account of this saga that isn’t written in an atrociously purple way but seems like that’s too much to ask of anyone involved
November 18, 2025 at 1:52 AM
I would love to read an account of this saga that isn’t written in an atrociously purple way but seems like that’s too much to ask of anyone involved
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
During Jim Crow, everything from restaraunts to stores to hotels to pharmacies to gas stations required making safe choices. They shaped every trip a Black person made. We document that history, and you can add your story to it here #CommunityMap: greenbookproject.osu.edu #GreenBookProject #EconSky
November 14, 2025 at 3:05 PM
During Jim Crow, everything from restaraunts to stores to hotels to pharmacies to gas stations required making safe choices. They shaped every trip a Black person made. We document that history, and you can add your story to it here #CommunityMap: greenbookproject.osu.edu #GreenBookProject #EconSky
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
In chart form (with a slightly different basket of comparison agencies) bsky.app/profile/empt...
November 14, 2025 at 4:11 PM
In chart form (with a slightly different basket of comparison agencies) bsky.app/profile/empt...
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
MAGA’s ongoing war on academic freedom, reflected in headlines from the last 24 hours.
November 14, 2025 at 1:17 PM
MAGA’s ongoing war on academic freedom, reflected in headlines from the last 24 hours.
“With concepts like harmlessness or reasoning, people oftentimes just throw the word around to pick something that falls near that category that they can measure and say, ‘Great, now I’ve measured it,’” Bean added.
Also my social science pet peeve. Measuring human/social concepts is hard.
Also my social science pet peeve. Measuring human/social concepts is hard.
I appreciate the work of these authors to show that this problem not only is still here but has grown:
www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...
But it is also quite frustrating 🧵>>
www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...
But it is also quite frustrating 🧵>>
AI's capabilities may be exaggerated by flawed tests, according to new study
A study from the Oxford Internet Institute analyzed 445 tests used to evaluate AI models.
www.nbcnews.com
November 9, 2025 at 3:24 PM
“With concepts like harmlessness or reasoning, people oftentimes just throw the word around to pick something that falls near that category that they can measure and say, ‘Great, now I’ve measured it,’” Bean added.
Also my social science pet peeve. Measuring human/social concepts is hard.
Also my social science pet peeve. Measuring human/social concepts is hard.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Online platforms shape what we know, how we connect & who gets heard. In partnership with Knight Georgetown Institute, we are launching a new series, Seeing the Digital Sphere: The Case for Public Platform Data. The series starts today, with an essay from KGI’s Leticia Bode and Peter Chapman.
Seeing the Digital Sphere: The Case for Public Platform Data | TechPolicy.Press
Introducing a series from Tech Policy Press and the Knight-Georgetown Institute, exploring why public platform data access is vital in today’s digital world.
www.techpolicy.press
November 6, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Online platforms shape what we know, how we connect & who gets heard. In partnership with Knight Georgetown Institute, we are launching a new series, Seeing the Digital Sphere: The Case for Public Platform Data. The series starts today, with an essay from KGI’s Leticia Bode and Peter Chapman.
November 2, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
Very few Americans support actual political violence.
Many more support intimidation.
Almost no one thinks it’s appropriate to kill your political opponents, but many more would dox them.
Read the latest: goodauthority.org/news/very-fe...
Many more support intimidation.
Almost no one thinks it’s appropriate to kill your political opponents, but many more would dox them.
Read the latest: goodauthority.org/news/very-fe...
Very few Americans support actual political violence. Many more support intimidation.
Almost no one thinks it’s appropriate to kill your political opponents, but many more would dox them.
goodauthority.org
October 31, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Very few Americans support actual political violence.
Many more support intimidation.
Almost no one thinks it’s appropriate to kill your political opponents, but many more would dox them.
Read the latest: goodauthority.org/news/very-fe...
Many more support intimidation.
Almost no one thinks it’s appropriate to kill your political opponents, but many more would dox them.
Read the latest: goodauthority.org/news/very-fe...
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
People are commenting “welcome to turkmenistan” all over Kyrgyz social media —and I have to say that the measure is indeed more extreme than anything we’ve seen in Kazakhstan or even Uzbekistan in recent years
October 28, 2025 at 12:45 PM
People are commenting “welcome to turkmenistan” all over Kyrgyz social media —and I have to say that the measure is indeed more extreme than anything we’ve seen in Kazakhstan or even Uzbekistan in recent years
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
🧵
🧵
The official home of the Python Programming Language
www.python.org
October 27, 2025 at 2:47 PM
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
🧵
🧵
Saw a few more people in Teddy Roosevelt & on the Maah Daah Hey trail than I saw in the Boundary Waters two weeks ago, but not many. Did see Bison (only a couple, most are in winter pasture), feral horses, and prairie dogs. Heard coyote and elk.
TRNP/Maah Daah Hey 2025
Explore this photo album by Dan Pemstein on Flickr!
www.flickr.com
October 27, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Saw a few more people in Teddy Roosevelt & on the Maah Daah Hey trail than I saw in the Boundary Waters two weeks ago, but not many. Did see Bison (only a couple, most are in winter pasture), feral horses, and prairie dogs. Heard coyote and elk.
Reposted by Dan Pemstein
New editorial from me and @keithschnak.bsky.social.
“Why Washington University must not sign Trump's 'compact'”
“Why Washington University must not sign Trump's 'compact'”
Opinion: Why Washington University must not sign Trump's 'compact'
Washington University in St. Louis has built its reputation on a simple ideal: excellence wins. For decades, our researchers have competed for and won federal grants based on the quality
www.stltoday.com
October 21, 2025 at 6:52 PM
New editorial from me and @keithschnak.bsky.social.
“Why Washington University must not sign Trump's 'compact'”
“Why Washington University must not sign Trump's 'compact'”