Daniel Larison
@daniellarison.bsky.social
Writer at Eunomia, Responsible Statecraft, and Antiwar
daniellarison.substack.com
daniellarison.substack.com
Reposted by Daniel Larison
The U.S. has now killed 128 people in boat strikes.
The U.S. Has Killed More than 100 People in Boat Strikes. We’re Tracking Them All.
The Intercept is keeping count of all publicly declared U.S. attacks on boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean and the number of civilians killed.
interc.pt
February 6, 2026 at 7:05 PM
The U.S. has now killed 128 people in boat strikes.
I would take the "prioritizers" more seriously if they followed their own recommendations. foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/06/p...
Pay Attention to the Prioritizers
The Republican foreign-policy establishment is developing a robust middle way between primacy and restraint.
foreignpolicy.com
February 6, 2026 at 6:38 PM
I would take the "prioritizers" more seriously if they followed their own recommendations. foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/06/p...
Reposted by Daniel Larison
The major flaw with the claim that Trump's foreign policy is "realist" is the fact that it is so deeply ideological. There is no "realist" case for driving South Africa into China's embrace, rather than competing for its partnership. The only reason Trump is doing so is based on racist memes.
Facing high Trump tariffs, Africa's leading economy says it's close to a new trade deal with China
China and South Africa have signed a framework agreement for a new trade deal. It shows how Africa’s leading economy is looking for other options following the high U.S. import tariffs imposed on it b...
apnews.com
February 6, 2026 at 3:05 PM
The major flaw with the claim that Trump's foreign policy is "realist" is the fact that it is so deeply ideological. There is no "realist" case for driving South Africa into China's embrace, rather than competing for its partnership. The only reason Trump is doing so is based on racist memes.
Reposted by Daniel Larison
DOD “signed a $210 million deal to buy advanced cluster shells from one of Israel’s state-owned arms companies… large new commitments to a class of weapons and an Israeli defense establishment both widely condemned for their indiscriminate killing of civilians.”
theintercept.com/2026/02/06/p...
theintercept.com/2026/02/06/p...
Pentagon Inks Massive $200 Million Deal to Buy Controversial Cluster Weapons From Israel
The contract for the controversial weapons known for high civilian death tolls is the largest of its kind in available government records.
theintercept.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:36 PM
DOD “signed a $210 million deal to buy advanced cluster shells from one of Israel’s state-owned arms companies… large new commitments to a class of weapons and an Israeli defense establishment both widely condemned for their indiscriminate killing of civilians.”
theintercept.com/2026/02/06/p...
theintercept.com/2026/02/06/p...
"The end of the last major arms control treaty this week will make the U.S. and the world less secure. The failure to create a replacement for New START is one of the biggest national security lapses of the last thirty years." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-death-...
The Death of Arms Control
We will all come to regret the ruinous and dangerous arms races that will follow.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:46 PM
"The end of the last major arms control treaty this week will make the U.S. and the world less secure. The failure to create a replacement for New START is one of the biggest national security lapses of the last thirty years." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-death-...
"Like Trump, they think the goal of our policy should be to get people in power who will remake Iranian foreign policy to our liking. They all imagine that Iran can be turned into some sort of vassal, and they differ only on how to get there." daniellarison.substack.com/p/there-is-n...
There Is No 'Right' Way to Pursue Regime Change
The U.S. should not be doing any of this.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:46 PM
"Like Trump, they think the goal of our policy should be to get people in power who will remake Iranian foreign policy to our liking. They all imagine that Iran can be turned into some sort of vassal, and they differ only on how to get there." daniellarison.substack.com/p/there-is-n...
"The Trumpist wager is that the U.S. can behave like a rogue state while continuing to lord it over others indefinitely through sheer strength." daniellarison.substack.com/p/trumps-pre...
Trump's 'Predatory Hegemony'
It is an irrational and destructive approach to the rest of the world, but it is how a would-be emperor would treat states that he considers his vassals.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:45 PM
"The Trumpist wager is that the U.S. can behave like a rogue state while continuing to lord it over others indefinitely through sheer strength." daniellarison.substack.com/p/trumps-pre...
"The U.S. doesn’t really want to negotiate at all. The administration wants to get everything it asks for in exchange for nothing." daniellarison.substack.com/p/attacking-...
Attacking Iran Will Be Arbitrary and Unjust
The president and his allies have no interest in finding a peaceful resolution.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:44 PM
"The U.S. doesn’t really want to negotiate at all. The administration wants to get everything it asks for in exchange for nothing." daniellarison.substack.com/p/attacking-...
"Thiessen’s column is otherwise worthless, but it does serve as a reminder that the hawkish side in the debate over Iran policy has always been bent on bloodshed and chaos. Trump seems very likely to give them what they want as he usually does." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-viciou...
The Viciousness of the Iran Hawks
Iran hawks have never wanted anything but war and regime change.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:43 PM
"Thiessen’s column is otherwise worthless, but it does serve as a reminder that the hawkish side in the debate over Iran policy has always been bent on bloodshed and chaos. Trump seems very likely to give them what they want as he usually does." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-viciou...
"Each intervention by itself might not cost him that much politically, but the frequency of the attacks and the number of different targets have soured most of the country on his foreign policy." daniellarison.substack.com/p/aggression...
Aggression Isn't Strength
The public has not been enthused by Trump’s many illegal attacks overseas.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:43 PM
"Each intervention by itself might not cost him that much politically, but the frequency of the attacks and the number of different targets have soured most of the country on his foreign policy." daniellarison.substack.com/p/aggression...
"If Trump had ever been open to a new treaty, his negotiators could have worked on that in his first term instead of wasting their time trolling China." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-truth-...
The Truth About Trump's 'New' and 'Improved' Treaty Proposal
If the president were serious about wanting a new and improved treaty, he would have no problem agreeing with Russia to respect the limits set by the old one.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:42 PM
"If Trump had ever been open to a new treaty, his negotiators could have worked on that in his first term instead of wasting their time trolling China." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-truth-...
Reposted by Daniel Larison
I see WaPo’s resident torture appreciator advocating for a US attack on Iran by playing the “credibility” card.
Not exactly clear to me how POTUS violating US treaty commitments enhances credibility.
Not exactly clear to me how POTUS violating US treaty commitments enhances credibility.
February 6, 2026 at 11:14 AM
I see WaPo’s resident torture appreciator advocating for a US attack on Iran by playing the “credibility” card.
Not exactly clear to me how POTUS violating US treaty commitments enhances credibility.
Not exactly clear to me how POTUS violating US treaty commitments enhances credibility.
Reposted by Daniel Larison
The administration's lawless killing spree at sea continues with another maritime strike in the eastern Pacific.
Real killing in a make believe armed conflict against unidentified enemies.
Real killing in a make believe armed conflict against unidentified enemies.
February 6, 2026 at 2:39 AM
The administration's lawless killing spree at sea continues with another maritime strike in the eastern Pacific.
Real killing in a make believe armed conflict against unidentified enemies.
Real killing in a make believe armed conflict against unidentified enemies.
Now they just need some thoughts to put in them.
February 6, 2026 at 12:41 AM
Now they just need some thoughts to put in them.
"If the president were serious about wanting a new and improved treaty, he would have no problem agreeing with Russia to respect the limits set by the old one." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-truth-...
The Truth About Trump's 'New' and 'Improved' Treaty Proposal
If the president were serious about wanting a new and improved treaty, he would have no problem agreeing with Russia to respect the limits set by the old one.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 7:38 PM
"If the president were serious about wanting a new and improved treaty, he would have no problem agreeing with Russia to respect the limits set by the old one." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-truth-...
Instead of taking the layup right in front of him to adhere to New START limits, he will do nothing and kick the can down the road. It's like his blather about a "better deal" with Iran. He pretends to support a future agreement that will never exist to cover for his opposition to the existing one.
In two weeks, say.
“Rather than extend ‘NEW START’ (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.”
February 5, 2026 at 6:58 PM
Instead of taking the layup right in front of him to adhere to New START limits, he will do nothing and kick the can down the road. It's like his blather about a "better deal" with Iran. He pretends to support a future agreement that will never exist to cover for his opposition to the existing one.
Reposted by Daniel Larison
Doesn't sound promising:
"Middle Eastern officials involved in efforts to de-escalate the tensions had already downgraded their expectations for Friday’s meeting...some were resigned to what appeared to be an inevitable military confrontation." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
"Middle Eastern officials involved in efforts to de-escalate the tensions had already downgraded their expectations for Friday’s meeting...some were resigned to what appeared to be an inevitable military confrontation." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
U.S., Iran Agree to Discuss Nuclear Issues Friday in Oman
The talks had been in danger of collapsing over the agenda and location.
www.wsj.com
February 5, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Doesn't sound promising:
"Middle Eastern officials involved in efforts to de-escalate the tensions had already downgraded their expectations for Friday’s meeting...some were resigned to what appeared to be an inevitable military confrontation." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
"Middle Eastern officials involved in efforts to de-escalate the tensions had already downgraded their expectations for Friday’s meeting...some were resigned to what appeared to be an inevitable military confrontation." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Reposted by Daniel Larison
@wyden.senate.gov's record of warning that there is deep and constitutionally-serious dirt being done by the intelligence agencies in secret is unblemished. The vaguer he is, the filthier the dirt is. This is the vaguest I've ever seen him
Ron Wyden Only Talks Like This When The Spies Do Something *Real* Bad
No, I don't know what they did. But I have a lot of experience with the senator
www.forever-wars.com
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
@wyden.senate.gov's record of warning that there is deep and constitutionally-serious dirt being done by the intelligence agencies in secret is unblemished. The vaguer he is, the filthier the dirt is. This is the vaguest I've ever seen him
"There appears to be a real political cost at home when the would-be “peacemaker” spends so much time in the first year back in office bombing and killing people around the world." daniellarison.substack.com/p/aggression...
Aggression Isn't Strength
The public has not been enthused by Trump’s many illegal attacks overseas.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 3:22 PM
"There appears to be a real political cost at home when the would-be “peacemaker” spends so much time in the first year back in office bombing and killing people around the world." daniellarison.substack.com/p/aggression...
“We will all come to regret the ruinous and dangerous arms races that will follow. The very preventable death of arms control is now here.” daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-death-...
The Death of Arms Control
We will all come to regret the ruinous and dangerous arms races that will follow.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 12:28 PM
“We will all come to regret the ruinous and dangerous arms races that will follow. The very preventable death of arms control is now here.” daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-death-...
"Iran hawks have never wanted anything but war and regime change." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-viciou...
The Viciousness of the Iran Hawks
Iran hawks have never wanted anything but war and regime change.
daniellarison.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 4:03 AM
"Iran hawks have never wanted anything but war and regime change." daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-viciou...
Reposted by Daniel Larison
Yep. This trade war with (and generic hostility toward) Canada is wrong, stupid, and self-defeating. wapo.st/4awb4iL
Opinion | Trump’s target was Canada, but Michigan takes the hit
The collateral damage of tariffs
wapo.st
February 4, 2026 at 9:32 PM
Yep. This trade war with (and generic hostility toward) Canada is wrong, stupid, and self-defeating. wapo.st/4awb4iL
Reposted by Daniel Larison
Arms Control Pope
February 4, 2026 at 9:05 PM
Arms Control Pope
Reposted by Daniel Larison
Axios: "We told them it is this or nothing, and they said, 'Ok, then nothing,'" a senior U.S. official said.
Iranians:
Iranians:
February 4, 2026 at 8:50 PM
Axios: "We told them it is this or nothing, and they said, 'Ok, then nothing,'" a senior U.S. official said.
Iranians:
Iranians:
In a stunning breakthrough, the two sides finally agree on the location of the meeting.
Iran-U.S. talks to take place in Oman on Friday, U.S. official confirms reut.rs/469pCTd
Iran-U.S. talks to take place in Oman on Friday, U.S. official confirms
U.S. talks with Iran will take place on Friday in Oman, a U.S. official confirmed on Wednesday, after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that nuclear talks with the U.S. are set to be held in the Omani capital Muscat at around 10 a.m. on Friday.
reut.rs
February 4, 2026 at 8:42 PM
In a stunning breakthrough, the two sides finally agree on the location of the meeting.