Peter Barnes
@barnespa.bsky.social
I work on politics and elections at the BBC. Anti-relativist.
Reposted by Peter Barnes
If you want to understand British politics, please can I urge you to read this paper. It is essential to understanding Labour's troubles, Reform's success, Conservative woes.
Briefly, the Brexit realignment accentuated two blocs. When the two-party share fell, voters switched *within* the blocs.
Briefly, the Brexit realignment accentuated two blocs. When the two-party share fell, voters switched *within* the blocs.
🚨NEW PUBLICATION 🚨
Though people have moved on from Brexit, they still vote in line with their Brexit preferences - with age/education still separating voters.
Voters now back party blocs, which matters greatly for Labour's current appeals to Reform voters.
🧵
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
Though people have moved on from Brexit, they still vote in line with their Brexit preferences - with age/education still separating voters.
Voters now back party blocs, which matters greatly for Labour's current appeals to Reform voters.
🧵
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election
Abstract. Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support f
academic.oup.com
May 14, 2025 at 11:23 AM
If you want to understand British politics, please can I urge you to read this paper. It is essential to understanding Labour's troubles, Reform's success, Conservative woes.
Briefly, the Brexit realignment accentuated two blocs. When the two-party share fell, voters switched *within* the blocs.
Briefly, the Brexit realignment accentuated two blocs. When the two-party share fell, voters switched *within* the blocs.
Reposted by Peter Barnes
Tomorrow Kim Leadbeater will introduce into the House of Commons her private member's bill on assisted dying.
PMBs face a precarious route onto the statute book, often vulnerable to objections from small numbers of MPs.
So what might we expect on this bill?
🧵
PMBs face a precarious route onto the statute book, often vulnerable to objections from small numbers of MPs.
So what might we expect on this bill?
🧵
October 15, 2024 at 1:17 PM
Tomorrow Kim Leadbeater will introduce into the House of Commons her private member's bill on assisted dying.
PMBs face a precarious route onto the statute book, often vulnerable to objections from small numbers of MPs.
So what might we expect on this bill?
🧵
PMBs face a precarious route onto the statute book, often vulnerable to objections from small numbers of MPs.
So what might we expect on this bill?
🧵
I think my reaction would be the same if someone did this to me.
September 12, 2024 at 7:25 PM
I think my reaction would be the same if someone did this to me.
Reposted by Peter Barnes
Latest piece for the House Magazine.
On the ranking of Prime Ministers - and the difficulties of getting MPs to answer surveys.
www.politicshome.com/thehouse/art...
On the ranking of Prime Ministers - and the difficulties of getting MPs to answer surveys.
www.politicshome.com/thehouse/art...
The professor will see you now - MPs' surveys
Who was the most successful prime minister?
www.politicshome.com
September 3, 2024 at 6:42 PM
Latest piece for the House Magazine.
On the ranking of Prime Ministers - and the difficulties of getting MPs to answer surveys.
www.politicshome.com/thehouse/art...
On the ranking of Prime Ministers - and the difficulties of getting MPs to answer surveys.
www.politicshome.com/thehouse/art...
Reposted by Peter Barnes
Reposted - was a gremlin in the data in previous post.
Turnout fell least in seats the Conservatives held and most in those already held by Labour. Perhaps in a 'change' election there's lower motivation to vote for an MP that is already on the 'change' side?
Turnout fell least in seats the Conservatives held and most in those already held by Labour. Perhaps in a 'change' election there's lower motivation to vote for an MP that is already on the 'change' side?
September 3, 2024 at 2:15 PM
Reposted - was a gremlin in the data in previous post.
Turnout fell least in seats the Conservatives held and most in those already held by Labour. Perhaps in a 'change' election there's lower motivation to vote for an MP that is already on the 'change' side?
Turnout fell least in seats the Conservatives held and most in those already held by Labour. Perhaps in a 'change' election there's lower motivation to vote for an MP that is already on the 'change' side?
Does anyone know the source for the stat that 75 Conservative MPs stood down in 1997? The Butler & Kavanagh book says 72. (p.186)
May 24, 2024 at 4:01 PM
Does anyone know the source for the stat that 75 Conservative MPs stood down in 1997? The Butler & Kavanagh book says 72. (p.186)