Fred Carver
@arbeider4fred.bsky.social
Advice for hire. Occasional writing, editing, speaking. Atrocity Prevention, Peacekeeping, UN, South Asia. Based in Bergen, NO. https://frederichcarver.com
Pinned
Fred Carver
@arbeider4fred.bsky.social
· Aug 14
Here's a consolidated thread of my marathon yesterday. If you're impressed, and able, please do consider sponsoring me by giving funds to SAST via this link. They really do incredible work. www.gofundme.com/f/urgent-tor...
Reposted by Fred Carver
Ian McKellen performs “The Strangers’ Case” speech from “Sir Thomas More” on Colbert.
February 5, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Ian McKellen performs “The Strangers’ Case” speech from “Sir Thomas More” on Colbert.
There are surely questions to be asked over the functioning of five eyes if the FBI had evidence of a senior member of the British gov committing insider trading and chose not to pass that over to UK authorities...
February 4, 2026 at 4:27 PM
There are surely questions to be asked over the functioning of five eyes if the FBI had evidence of a senior member of the British gov committing insider trading and chose not to pass that over to UK authorities...
Best news of 2026. A low bar granted but still....
BREAKING: NO CONVICTIONS AS VERDICTS COME IN FOR FILTON24 TRIAL
After 8 days of deliberation, the jury have not convicted Charlotte Head, Samuel Corner, Ellie (Leona) Kamio, Fatema Zainab Rajwani, Zoe Rogers and Jordan Devlin on any charge.
Defend Our Juries comment to follow.
After 8 days of deliberation, the jury have not convicted Charlotte Head, Samuel Corner, Ellie (Leona) Kamio, Fatema Zainab Rajwani, Zoe Rogers and Jordan Devlin on any charge.
Defend Our Juries comment to follow.
February 4, 2026 at 3:32 PM
Best news of 2026. A low bar granted but still....
People have literally come up to my wife in the supermarket to say "we don't think Trump's your fault!"
the "americans will be pariahs when they travel!!" discourse is so funny. 1) we deserve it, 2) people in other countries (excluding, say, large parts of Iraq) are in reality pretty chill about americans, great satan or no
January 21, 2026 at 7:37 PM
People have literally come up to my wife in the supermarket to say "we don't think Trump's your fault!"
Pretty good analysis tbh. The global system is collapsing, but global cooperation is not, because collaboration still brings greater benefit than conflict, and because - now more than ever - coalitions have more power than any state acting alone
www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, PM of Canada
Canadian PM Mark Carney stressed the end of the rules-based international order and urged middle powers to act together to counter the great power rivalry.
www.weforum.org
January 21, 2026 at 8:50 AM
Pretty good analysis tbh. The global system is collapsing, but global cooperation is not, because collaboration still brings greater benefit than conflict, and because - now more than ever - coalitions have more power than any state acting alone
www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
Reposted by Fred Carver
The UN Human Rights Council must now act decisively by convening a special session and adopting a strong resolution that signals unequivocally to Iranian authorities that the spiral of bloodshed and impunity must end.
Read in full ➡️ mrap.fr/joint-cso-ca...
Read in full ➡️ mrap.fr/joint-cso-ca...
January 20, 2026 at 11:27 AM
The UN Human Rights Council must now act decisively by convening a special session and adopting a strong resolution that signals unequivocally to Iranian authorities that the spiral of bloodshed and impunity must end.
Read in full ➡️ mrap.fr/joint-cso-ca...
Read in full ➡️ mrap.fr/joint-cso-ca...
Deeply troubled by the lack of coverage and commentary on Rojava. The betrayal might have been inevitable, as might the conquest, but the wider international community turning their backs and shrugging their shoulders was a choice.
January 20, 2026 at 11:24 AM
Deeply troubled by the lack of coverage and commentary on Rojava. The betrayal might have been inevitable, as might the conquest, but the wider international community turning their backs and shrugging their shoulders was a choice.
Re-upping since Tooze is in the nooze
LOL
sdg-action.org/with-sustain...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/08/a...
(to be clear, this is a very obvious way to start an essay on the SDGs, I'm not accusing Tooze of plagiarism, but it is funny)
sdg-action.org/with-sustain...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/08/a...
(to be clear, this is a very obvious way to start an essay on the SDGs, I'm not accusing Tooze of plagiarism, but it is funny)
January 18, 2026 at 8:55 AM
Re-upping since Tooze is in the nooze
This tracks. Just pass an executive order announcing the annexation of Greenland and that Thule space base is its new capital. No military operation and ground realities don't change a jot
The reason is that Trump's desire to possess Greenland is detached from reality, so his possession of Greenland does not have to correspond to reality. As with Venezuela, he does not need to have it in order to claim he runs it.
January 15, 2026 at 12:21 PM
This tracks. Just pass an executive order announcing the annexation of Greenland and that Thule space base is its new capital. No military operation and ground realities don't change a jot
Surprised at the lack of preparedness since Scandinavia - Sweden and Norway at least - are perhaps the most overprepared for invasion places in the world. Whither om krisen eller kriget kommer? www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
‘Are they going to bring their violence here?’: Fear – but little preparation – as threat of invasion looms over Greenland
Ahead of high-stakes talks, people tell of alarm, thoughts of fleeing and lack of information on what to do if US invades
www.theguardian.com
January 14, 2026 at 4:44 PM
Surprised at the lack of preparedness since Scandinavia - Sweden and Norway at least - are perhaps the most overprepared for invasion places in the world. Whither om krisen eller kriget kommer? www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
I've been becoming slowly more convinced we should just forget about the UNSC, let it whither on the vine, & elevate the GA as the de facto preeminent institution of the UN. This from @richardgowan1.bsky.social tho points out there is still sometimes a role for it
academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
The UN Security Council: still room for compromise?
This policy paper argues that while the UN system, and in particular the UN Security Council, may not be capable of resolving the most major contemporary c
academic.oup.com
January 14, 2026 at 10:34 AM
I've been becoming slowly more convinced we should just forget about the UNSC, let it whither on the vine, & elevate the GA as the de facto preeminent institution of the UN. This from @richardgowan1.bsky.social tho points out there is still sometimes a role for it
academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
Reposted by Fred Carver
For those keeping score, Bellingcat, The New York Times Visual Investigation Team, & Washington Post's Visual Forensic team have all published analysis showing the ICE shooter wasn't in the path of Renee Nicole Good’s vehicle when he shot her, contradicting statements by the President & his cronies
January 8, 2026 at 3:35 PM
For those keeping score, Bellingcat, The New York Times Visual Investigation Team, & Washington Post's Visual Forensic team have all published analysis showing the ICE shooter wasn't in the path of Renee Nicole Good’s vehicle when he shot her, contradicting statements by the President & his cronies
I don't think the US can withdraw from some of these eg DESA or the SRs: they are parts of the secretariat ie the US isn't a member of them. Others eg ECOSOC are core parts of the UN or like PBC the US has a seat thru Security Council - so the US can stop showing up but they will still have a seat
This is insane. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Withdrawing the United States from International Organizations, Conventions, and Treaties that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United
www.whitehouse.gov
January 8, 2026 at 7:40 AM
I don't think the US can withdraw from some of these eg DESA or the SRs: they are parts of the secretariat ie the US isn't a member of them. Others eg ECOSOC are core parts of the UN or like PBC the US has a seat thru Security Council - so the US can stop showing up but they will still have a seat
I think there's also an "I wouldn't have started from here" argument that had UK foreign policy developed a reputation for being coherent and principled over the preceding decades the offence caused by the UK taking a stand now would be reduced...
there are two arguments hanging in the balance here, both of which have some merit: (1) it doesn't do the UK government any good to publicly antagonize the US government, so why do it? (2) it doesn't do the UK government any good to curry favor with the US government, so why not stand on principle?
I am not an expert is international diplomacy, by any stretch, but the current argument sweeping Bsky, that "the UK gov't must demonstrate it recognises just how aggressive, dangerous, and unpredictable Trump's US has become, by poking Trump publicly in the eye" is not entirely rational.
January 5, 2026 at 10:14 PM
I think there's also an "I wouldn't have started from here" argument that had UK foreign policy developed a reputation for being coherent and principled over the preceding decades the offence caused by the UK taking a stand now would be reduced...
Granted this is Swinford's analysis rather than a direct quote but even so the highlighted sentence is a hell of a thing to brief as it presumably was. Of course it's true, we all know it. But saying it out loud is peak pundit brain: looking smart above actual diplomatic effects
January 5, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Granted this is Swinford's analysis rather than a direct quote but even so the highlighted sentence is a hell of a thing to brief as it presumably was. Of course it's true, we all know it. But saying it out loud is peak pundit brain: looking smart above actual diplomatic effects
So I guess 3 possibilities here:
1 this is nonsense
2 Rodriguez said it but didn't mean it
3 Rodriguez said it and meant it
But even if it's 3 there's still a lot of people in Venezuela with guns and no real reason to accept President Hegseth's oil extraction mandate
1 this is nonsense
2 Rodriguez said it but didn't mean it
3 Rodriguez said it and meant it
But even if it's 3 there's still a lot of people in Venezuela with guns and no real reason to accept President Hegseth's oil extraction mandate
Trump: "There is nobody to take over. You have a vice president who has been appointed by Maduro. She's I guess the president. She was sworn in just a little while ago. She had a long conversation with Marco and she said, 'We'll do whatever you need.' She really doesn't have a choice."
January 3, 2026 at 6:16 PM
So I guess 3 possibilities here:
1 this is nonsense
2 Rodriguez said it but didn't mean it
3 Rodriguez said it and meant it
But even if it's 3 there's still a lot of people in Venezuela with guns and no real reason to accept President Hegseth's oil extraction mandate
1 this is nonsense
2 Rodriguez said it but didn't mean it
3 Rodriguez said it and meant it
But even if it's 3 there's still a lot of people in Venezuela with guns and no real reason to accept President Hegseth's oil extraction mandate
I do find it baffling that the creators of LLMs evade legal responsibility for their creations' speech
Genuinely wild that no actual people will go to jail for this
January 3, 2026 at 1:13 PM
I do find it baffling that the creators of LLMs evade legal responsibility for their creations' speech
Agreed. Additionally I'm continually amazed how well this decade old interview with Julia Buxton holds up newleftreview.org/issues/ii99/...
January 3, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Agreed. Additionally I'm continually amazed how well this decade old interview with Julia Buxton holds up newleftreview.org/issues/ii99/...
This feels like one of two plausible scenarios. Is there another that goes like this?
1. Rally round the flag effect kills support for opposition and solidifies the Chavismo regime
2. Pride and a need to restore detterance mean Vzla has to insist a state of war exist between it & USA for at least
1. Rally round the flag effect kills support for opposition and solidifies the Chavismo regime
2. Pride and a need to restore detterance mean Vzla has to insist a state of war exist between it & USA for at least
Plausible worst case scenario with Venezuela in four steps:
1. Rubio and Venezuelan exiles sell the idea of decapitation strikes against Maduro to Trump as the one big thing that solves Venezuela, cartels and Cuba for the US.
1. Rubio and Venezuelan exiles sell the idea of decapitation strikes against Maduro to Trump as the one big thing that solves Venezuela, cartels and Cuba for the US.
January 3, 2026 at 11:06 AM
This feels like one of two plausible scenarios. Is there another that goes like this?
1. Rally round the flag effect kills support for opposition and solidifies the Chavismo regime
2. Pride and a need to restore detterance mean Vzla has to insist a state of war exist between it & USA for at least
1. Rally round the flag effect kills support for opposition and solidifies the Chavismo regime
2. Pride and a need to restore detterance mean Vzla has to insist a state of war exist between it & USA for at least
This is a bit of a mess and I think that's all downwind of not mentioning Iraq and the war on terror. The interregnum started in about 2003 and what were now seeing is the morbid symptoms subsiding as the new order is finally born www.theguardian.com/law/ng-inter...
Into the void: how Trump killed international law
The rules-based global order, its institutions and value system face a crisis of legitimacy and credibility as the US turns away
www.theguardian.com
December 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
This is a bit of a mess and I think that's all downwind of not mentioning Iraq and the war on terror. The interregnum started in about 2003 and what were now seeing is the morbid symptoms subsiding as the new order is finally born www.theguardian.com/law/ng-inter...