Alan Swallow
@alanswallow.bsky.social
Retired pension risk manager, actuary, with an interest in wider economy. England rugby fan, who likes the French. And Spain. Likes balance.
Reposted by Alan Swallow
I prefer Camus: “il faut imaginer Sisyphus heureux”—one must imagine Sisyphus happy. It is clear to me that the “il faut” is along the lines of “the order of the universe requires” while “imaginer” means picture, conceive, or envisage, with no connotation that what one “imaginer” is in fact... 1/
November 19, 2025 at 2:27 PM
I prefer Camus: “il faut imaginer Sisyphus heureux”—one must imagine Sisyphus happy. It is clear to me that the “il faut” is along the lines of “the order of the universe requires” while “imaginer” means picture, conceive, or envisage, with no connotation that what one “imaginer” is in fact... 1/
Reposted by Alan Swallow
Banger post on the buzziest (but fuzziest) phenomenon in institutional investing, from @tobyn.bsky.social naturally. on.ft.com/47MeI73
The hot new investment trend is the ‘Total Portfolio Approach’. Does it work?
Exploring the buzzy but fuzzy new phenomenon in asset allocation
on.ft.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Banger post on the buzziest (but fuzziest) phenomenon in institutional investing, from @tobyn.bsky.social naturally. on.ft.com/47MeI73
Reposted by Alan Swallow
New reflections from me about the challenge of countering disinformation when the state itself is distributing it
christinapagel.substack.com/p/the-erosio...
christinapagel.substack.com/p/the-erosio...
November 15, 2025 at 2:23 PM
New reflections from me about the challenge of countering disinformation when the state itself is distributing it
christinapagel.substack.com/p/the-erosio...
christinapagel.substack.com/p/the-erosio...
Reposted by Alan Swallow
🧵On our revelations today about the BBC Coup and the Prescott Dossier.
The leaked ‘BBC Bias’ memo Trump used to attack the BBC was authored by Michael Prescott — a Hanover lobbyist paid by US tech/media giants tied to Trump. Full story: bylinetimes.com/2025/11/11/b... 1/12
The leaked ‘BBC Bias’ memo Trump used to attack the BBC was authored by Michael Prescott — a Hanover lobbyist paid by US tech/media giants tied to Trump. Full story: bylinetimes.com/2025/11/11/b... 1/12
'BBC Bias' Memo Was Authored by Lobbyist Tied to Pro-Trump Tech Giants
The leaked memo that fuelled Trump’s attack on the BBC was written by a lobbyist at a firm paid by US tech giants tied to the President
bylinetimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:19 PM
🧵On our revelations today about the BBC Coup and the Prescott Dossier.
The leaked ‘BBC Bias’ memo Trump used to attack the BBC was authored by Michael Prescott — a Hanover lobbyist paid by US tech/media giants tied to Trump. Full story: bylinetimes.com/2025/11/11/b... 1/12
The leaked ‘BBC Bias’ memo Trump used to attack the BBC was authored by Michael Prescott — a Hanover lobbyist paid by US tech/media giants tied to Trump. Full story: bylinetimes.com/2025/11/11/b... 1/12
Reposted by Alan Swallow
This was a diagram illustrating a piece I wrote in @prospectmagazine.co.uk in January 2024. Some faces have since changed but you get the general gist …
November 10, 2025 at 10:44 AM
This was a diagram illustrating a piece I wrote in @prospectmagazine.co.uk in January 2024. Some faces have since changed but you get the general gist …
Reposted by Alan Swallow
Vietnam: Five and a half feet of rain in a day. Smashes previous 24 hour record by two and a half feet.
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Vietnam city sets national record with 1.7 m rain in 24 hours
The central Vietnamese city of Hue recorded more than a metre of rain in a 24-hour period, smashing a national record set over two decades ago, the environment ministry said Tuesday.
www.france24.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Vietnam: Five and a half feet of rain in a day. Smashes previous 24 hour record by two and a half feet.
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Reposted by Alan Swallow
We are closer to the full scale invasion of Ukraine (40 months) than we are to the last date of the next election (45 months).
Next time you are about to make a confident prediction, have a think about all that has happened in the last 45 months rather than the fortune-tellings of excited hacks.
Next time you are about to make a confident prediction, have a think about all that has happened in the last 45 months rather than the fortune-tellings of excited hacks.
Infuriatingly, this repeats the historically illiterate: This hasn't happened since Labour replaced the Liberals. Only nothing has replaced anything. There's been some striking opinion polls and midterm results, years from an election. The last time what we are seeing happened was actually 1981. 1/3
Andrew Marr: I was wrong to believe in Keir Starmer
YouTube video by The New Statesman
www.youtube.com
October 26, 2025 at 3:54 PM
We are closer to the full scale invasion of Ukraine (40 months) than we are to the last date of the next election (45 months).
Next time you are about to make a confident prediction, have a think about all that has happened in the last 45 months rather than the fortune-tellings of excited hacks.
Next time you are about to make a confident prediction, have a think about all that has happened in the last 45 months rather than the fortune-tellings of excited hacks.
Reposted by Alan Swallow
Ed Luce watching democracy die in the United States of America
October 24, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Ed Luce watching democracy die in the United States of America
Reposted by Alan Swallow
Via @sundersays.bsky.social the Conservatives' draft legislation - absolutely clear that it applies to (and is intended to apply to) legal permanent residents claiming state pension (on the basis of their contributions) or child benefit for British kids.
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
October 22, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Via @sundersays.bsky.social the Conservatives' draft legislation - absolutely clear that it applies to (and is intended to apply to) legal permanent residents claiming state pension (on the basis of their contributions) or child benefit for British kids.
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
Reposted by Alan Swallow
There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
October 15, 2025 at 12:35 PM
There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system.
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts
Spending is controlled, not spiralling
Worklessness is near record lows
My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Reposted by Alan Swallow
A much needed corrective by @chrisgiles.ft.com to the "welfare is out of control" narrative, drawing on research by my colleague @benbgeiger.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
No need for a moral panic about the welfare system
It’s far from perfect, but the UK’s spending is broadly controlled and employment is high
www.ft.com
October 15, 2025 at 1:17 PM
A much needed corrective by @chrisgiles.ft.com to the "welfare is out of control" narrative, drawing on research by my colleague @benbgeiger.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
www.ft.com/content/ee67...
Reposted by Alan Swallow
Teeny house guest brought in by the cat last night.
October 13, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Teeny house guest brought in by the cat last night.
Reposted by Alan Swallow
After a long pause, I've just done another England Covid & NHS update as we head into the autumn/winter season.
TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...
TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...
England is now experiencing a significant Covid wave, after 10 months of relative quiet
The latest Covid situation in England and a look at where NHS services are as we head into winter
christinapagel.substack.com
October 10, 2025 at 1:10 PM
After a long pause, I've just done another England Covid & NHS update as we head into the autumn/winter season.
TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...
TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...
Reposted by Alan Swallow
There are lots of reasons not to leave ECHR. But apart from anything else, it just doesn't solve the problem the Tories/Reform think it does.
E.g. the Supreme Court judgment re Rwanda being unsafe explicitly said it was not based on ECHR.
E.g. the Supreme Court judgment re Rwanda being unsafe explicitly said it was not based on ECHR.
October 4, 2025 at 8:42 AM
There are lots of reasons not to leave ECHR. But apart from anything else, it just doesn't solve the problem the Tories/Reform think it does.
E.g. the Supreme Court judgment re Rwanda being unsafe explicitly said it was not based on ECHR.
E.g. the Supreme Court judgment re Rwanda being unsafe explicitly said it was not based on ECHR.
Reposted by Alan Swallow
Javier Milei had to beg a bail-out and already needs another. Argentina's economy is in a tailspin. Gov't bonds and peso in freefall. People starving, throwing rocks at him.
Farage last year: "He's amazing. It's Thatcherism on steroids. Cutting and slashing expenditure. That's leadership."
SHARE!
Farage last year: "He's amazing. It's Thatcherism on steroids. Cutting and slashing expenditure. That's leadership."
SHARE!
October 1, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Javier Milei had to beg a bail-out and already needs another. Argentina's economy is in a tailspin. Gov't bonds and peso in freefall. People starving, throwing rocks at him.
Farage last year: "He's amazing. It's Thatcherism on steroids. Cutting and slashing expenditure. That's leadership."
SHARE!
Farage last year: "He's amazing. It's Thatcherism on steroids. Cutting and slashing expenditure. That's leadership."
SHARE!
Reposted by Alan Swallow
Reposted by Alan Swallow
New post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some highly technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some highly technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market
I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
September 30, 2025 at 8:07 AM
New post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some highly technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some highly technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
Reposted by Alan Swallow
The Five Questions Nigel Farage is Never Asked About Brexit, Trump and Russia – Byline Times bylinetimes.com/2024/06/19/t...
The Five Questions Nigel Farage is Never Asked About Brexit, Trump and Russia
As the media provides the Reform Leader with a prominent platform, Peter Jukes considers all the concerning lines of enquiry that journalists never confront him with
bylinetimes.com
September 26, 2025 at 5:32 PM
The Five Questions Nigel Farage is Never Asked About Brexit, Trump and Russia – Byline Times bylinetimes.com/2024/06/19/t...
Reposted by Alan Swallow
Wtf
A 7% decline in English birds in just 5 years is astonishing
The web of life is unravelling fast
The web of life is unravelling fast
Wild bird numbers continue to fall in UK with some species in ‘dramatic freefall’
Species index fell by 4% between 2019 and 2024 – although data shows woodland populations beginning to stabilise
www.theguardian.com
September 24, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Wtf
Reposted by Alan Swallow
First Farage platformed notorious UK anti-vaxxer, Aseem Malhotra, who insinuated that Covid vaccines caused the Royal Family’s recent cancers.
Now he’s openly trashing scientific method & evidence, pretending neither can be trusted & facts are a free for all.
This is deeply dangerous populism.
Now he’s openly trashing scientific method & evidence, pretending neither can be trusted & facts are a free for all.
This is deeply dangerous populism.
Farage asked on @lbc.co.uk whether he agreed with on the unproven link between paracetamol and autism
“I have no idea... We were told thalidomide was a v safe drug and it isn’t. who knows. I don’t know, you don’t know…when it comes to science I don’t side with anybody. It’s never settled.”
“I have no idea... We were told thalidomide was a v safe drug and it isn’t. who knows. I don’t know, you don’t know…when it comes to science I don’t side with anybody. It’s never settled.”
September 24, 2025 at 7:36 AM
First Farage platformed notorious UK anti-vaxxer, Aseem Malhotra, who insinuated that Covid vaccines caused the Royal Family’s recent cancers.
Now he’s openly trashing scientific method & evidence, pretending neither can be trusted & facts are a free for all.
This is deeply dangerous populism.
Now he’s openly trashing scientific method & evidence, pretending neither can be trusted & facts are a free for all.
This is deeply dangerous populism.
Reposted by Alan Swallow
What on Earth is this? An "in depth" BBC article about free speech in the UK that only cites examples of right-wing/ 'anti-woke' speech being suppressed. How can you mention Lucy Connolly but completely ignore Palestine Action / Just Stop Oil? Gob-smacking. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
How the simmering UK freedom of speech row reached boiling point
How did we reach a point where the UK is being compared to a 'tin pot Third World dictatorship'?
www.bbc.co.uk
September 23, 2025 at 9:11 AM
What on Earth is this? An "in depth" BBC article about free speech in the UK that only cites examples of right-wing/ 'anti-woke' speech being suppressed. How can you mention Lucy Connolly but completely ignore Palestine Action / Just Stop Oil? Gob-smacking. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Alan Swallow
NOTHING will prepare you for this 45-second story arc. From "I'm just doing this because I love the flag, it's totally grassroots, and I'm not part of anything political"... to who actually gave him the flags the night before.
Anyone who believes it is an innocent movement needs to see this.
Anyone who believes it is an innocent movement needs to see this.
September 10, 2025 at 11:08 AM
NOTHING will prepare you for this 45-second story arc. From "I'm just doing this because I love the flag, it's totally grassroots, and I'm not part of anything political"... to who actually gave him the flags the night before.
Anyone who believes it is an innocent movement needs to see this.
Anyone who believes it is an innocent movement needs to see this.
Reposted by Alan Swallow
It’s hardly a wild hypothesis that this might make some people less inclined to show compassion to refugees. Especially since they are unlikely to have any sense of how much money it costs, compared to the amounts we are paying to the Bank of England for QT losses for example
September 16, 2025 at 9:00 AM
It’s hardly a wild hypothesis that this might make some people less inclined to show compassion to refugees. Especially since they are unlikely to have any sense of how much money it costs, compared to the amounts we are paying to the Bank of England for QT losses for example
Reposted by Alan Swallow
🚨Reform UK's simple plan to fix LGPS pensions.
Come for the pensions geekery, stay for the beautiful Marimekko chart.
on.ft.com/4ncoy6Y
Come for the pensions geekery, stay for the beautiful Marimekko chart.
on.ft.com/4ncoy6Y
September 3, 2025 at 4:10 PM
🚨Reform UK's simple plan to fix LGPS pensions.
Come for the pensions geekery, stay for the beautiful Marimekko chart.
on.ft.com/4ncoy6Y
Come for the pensions geekery, stay for the beautiful Marimekko chart.
on.ft.com/4ncoy6Y