Stephen D. Williamson

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 1d

I thought "the stockings were placed by the chimney with care...," not in the kids' beds.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 9d

That's roughly consistent with the dot plots in the SEP. The issue isn't so much what neutral is - though there is a lot of dispersion in the estimates - but how fast to go there.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 12d

Excellent. Thoughts like this go through my head when people ask for a research statement as part of a tenure case, or when someone asks for the "intuition."

Wojtek Kopczuk @wwwojtekk.bsky.social · 12d

'My papers say what I have researched. And therefore neither I nor my papers have any more to say. I am a researcher, not a speaker. Do you hear me? Actually, if you're going to interview anyone, you can interview my papers. If you don't find an answer there, then that's your own fault.'

Wojtek Kopczuk @wwwojtekk.bsky.social · 12d

'My papers say what I have researched. And therefore neither I nor my papers have any more to say. I am a researcher, not a speaker. Do you hear me? Actually, if you're going to interview anyone, you can interview my papers. If you don't find an answer there, then that's your own fault.'

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 19d

If there were recorded music from the 17th century, I would probably listen to that too. Wouldn't you?

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 19d

I can't remember a Provost saying anything that made sense.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 27d

If the jobs of executives can be done by AI, why do we pay those characters so much?

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 27d

If you actually have to do work, AI often just makes more work because you have to spend so much time making sure it didn't lie to you again.

Dare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 28d

A study by Dayforce shows 87% of executives use AI for work, compared to 57% of managers and just 27% of employees.

I think this explains the massive disconnect we see in how CEOs talk about AI versus everyone else. It also raises the question of how useful it truly is for frontline work?

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 27d

If you actually have to do work, AI often just makes more work because you have to spend so much time making sure it didn't lie to you again.

Dare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 28d

A study by Dayforce shows 87% of executives use AI for work, compared to 57% of managers and just 27% of employees.

I think this explains the massive disconnect we see in how CEOs talk about AI versus everyone else. It also raises the question of how useful it truly is for frontline work?

Execs are embracing AI more than their employees are, new research suggests

Research from HR software company Dayforce suggests that executives are leaning into AI far more than their employees.

www.businessinsider.com

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Nov 23

Loading meat was not all it was cracked up to be.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Nov 17

Editors do something. Who knew?

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Nov 13

This is actually something I might do.

The Onion @theonion.com · Nov 13

Dad Calling Just To Say He Loves King Crimson https://theonion.com/dad-calling-just-to-say-he-loves-king-crimson/

The Onion @theonion.com · Nov 13

Dad Calling Just To Say He Loves King Crimson https://theonion.com/dad-calling-just-to-say-he-loves-king-crimson/

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Nov 10

Take out "the potential to" and the statement is false. And explaining why there is "potential" is quite difficult.

Tuffy @smtuffy.bsky.social · Nov 10

I really don’t think this is true and it’s unclear to be why the BoE does

Tuffy @smtuffy.bsky.social · Nov 10

I really don’t think this is true and it’s unclear to be why the BoE does

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 28

2/balances or a halt in passive reductions in the Fed's asset portfolio. Overnight interest rate control is straightforward given existing tools.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 28

1/The Fed has confused the markets by the way it speaks to monetary policy in terms of a fed funds rate range, and by how it sets the interest rates on its reverse repo and standing repo facilities. It's silly to argue that recent developments in overnight markets reflect a need for more reserve...

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · Oct 28

Wall Street moves to embrace imminent end to Fed balance sheet drawdown and increasingly sees central bank needing to restock financial system with cash.

Market liquidity concerns cloud end of Fed's balance sheet drawdown

As Wall Street's expectations have rapidly shifted toward an imminent end to the Federal Reserve's effort to shrink its bond holdings, some analysts also anticipate a return to balance sheet expansion in relatively short order.

www.reuters.com

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · Oct 28

Wall Street moves to embrace imminent end to Fed balance sheet drawdown and increasingly sees central bank needing to restock financial system with cash.

Market liquidity concerns cloud end of Fed's balance sheet drawdown

As Wall Street's expectations have rapidly shifted toward an imminent end to the Federal Reserve's effort to shrink its bond holdings, some analysts also anticipate a return to balance sheet expansion in relatively short order.

www.reuters.com

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 27

4/One puzzle is why the Fed still bothers telling us about its overnight interest rate target in terms of a fed funds rate range, rather than a target for SOFR. Especially since they are in fact targeting SOFR.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 27

3/fall, there will be more takeup on the standing repo facility, and the interest rate offered at the standing repo facility will determine SOFR. So, no big deal. But we will see some window dressing on the Fed's part, as they will want the fed funds rate to fall within the prescribed range...

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 27

2/on reserves, reverse repos parked at the Fed, and the Fed's standing repo facility, takeup on the reverse repo facility goes to zero, and then the overnight repo rate (SOFR) becomes unmoored from the rate offered at the reverse repo facility. As the size of the asset portfolio continues to...

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 27

1/First, it is not clear what "ample" is supposed to mean. Second, even if we knew what ample means, it's not clear why ample might be optimal. Third, what "tightness?" What we're seeing is that, consistent with past behavior of overnight markets, there's a point where, given the interest rates...

Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · Oct 27

Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)

Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · Oct 27

Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 27

This paper claims that MMT includes "a well-developed
theoretical framework (including mathematical models)" I scrolled through the paper and couldn't find any symbols, save in some national income accounting identities. No "mathematical model" in sight.

NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics @repec-nep-mac.bsky.social · Oct 27

"Modern Money Theory on Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Empirics, Theory and Policymaking"

NEP/RePEc link

to paper

d.repec.org

NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics @repec-nep-mac.bsky.social · Oct 27

"Modern Money Theory on Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Empirics, Theory and Policymaking"

NEP/RePEc link

to paper

d.repec.org

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 21

Interesting. Waller's speech proposes Fed "payment accounts," which are effectively limited reserve accounts. He doesn't call this stuff central bank digital currency, but clearly the intention is to expand the reach of the Fed in wholesale payments involving the crypo sector.

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · Oct 21

Governor Waller delivers opening remarks at the Payments Innovation Conference: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Watch live: www.federalreserve.gov/conferences/...
www.youtube.com/federalreserve

Learn more about Governor Waller: www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/...

Payments Innovation Conference

economic Conference - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · Oct 21

Governor Waller delivers opening remarks at the Payments Innovation Conference: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Watch live: www.federalreserve.gov/conferences/...
www.youtube.com/federalreserve

Learn more about Governor Waller: www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/...

Payments Innovation Conference

economic Conference - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 18

2/about the worst. I would give the prize to Beijing. The air will kill you (though maybe it's improved).

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 18

1/If you want a major city, Central Park is pretty nice, though crowded. But, suppose I get to choose my city. Some of these big cities are nice to visit, but I prefer a mid-sized city. Or if I want things that are nice to look at, Boulder Colorado and Banff Alberta are great. We could also talk...

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 18

2/listen to the heavy traffic on the Lakeshore. Toronto is worse, of course. There's nothing like that close to the lake, and the Gardiner Expressway is a barrier between the city and the lake.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 18

1/Haha. It looked a lot like the view over the east river I saw 2 weeks ago. Now I recognize the Chicago skyline. I still like it better here. To get down to that running path from Chicago downtown, you have to get across Michigan Ave, Columbus Dr, and the Lakeshore. Then, on the path, you get to...

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