Stephen D. Williamson

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 1d

Take out "the potential to" and the statement is false. And explaining why there is "potential" is quite difficult.

Tuffy @smtuffy.bsky.social · 1d

I really don’t think this is true and it’s unclear to be why the BoE does

Tuffy @smtuffy.bsky.social · 1d

I really don’t think this is true and it’s unclear to be why the BoE does

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14d

2/balances or a halt in passive reductions in the Fed's asset portfolio. Overnight interest rate control is straightforward given existing tools.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14d

1/The Fed has confused the markets by the way it speaks to monetary policy in terms of a fed funds rate range, and by how it sets the interest rates on its reverse repo and standing repo facilities. It's silly to argue that recent developments in overnight markets reflect a need for more reserve...

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 14d

Wall Street moves to embrace imminent end to Fed balance sheet drawdown and increasingly sees central bank needing to restock financial system with cash.

Market liquidity concerns cloud end of Fed's balance sheet drawdown

As Wall Street's expectations have rapidly shifted toward an imminent end to the Federal Reserve's effort to shrink its bond holdings, some analysts also anticipate a return to balance sheet expansion in relatively short order.

www.reuters.com

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 14d

Wall Street moves to embrace imminent end to Fed balance sheet drawdown and increasingly sees central bank needing to restock financial system with cash.

Market liquidity concerns cloud end of Fed's balance sheet drawdown

As Wall Street's expectations have rapidly shifted toward an imminent end to the Federal Reserve's effort to shrink its bond holdings, some analysts also anticipate a return to balance sheet expansion in relatively short order.

www.reuters.com

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14d

4/One puzzle is why the Fed still bothers telling us about its overnight interest rate target in terms of a fed funds rate range, rather than a target for SOFR. Especially since they are in fact targeting SOFR.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14d

3/fall, there will be more takeup on the standing repo facility, and the interest rate offered at the standing repo facility will determine SOFR. So, no big deal. But we will see some window dressing on the Fed's part, as they will want the fed funds rate to fall within the prescribed range...

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14d

2/on reserves, reverse repos parked at the Fed, and the Fed's standing repo facility, takeup on the reverse repo facility goes to zero, and then the overnight repo rate (SOFR) becomes unmoored from the rate offered at the reverse repo facility. As the size of the asset portfolio continues to...

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14d

1/First, it is not clear what "ample" is supposed to mean. Second, even if we knew what ample means, it's not clear why ample might be optimal. Third, what "tightness?" What we're seeing is that, consistent with past behavior of overnight markets, there's a point where, given the interest rates...

Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 14d

Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)

Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 14d

Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 14d

This paper claims that MMT includes "a well-developed
theoretical framework (including mathematical models)" I scrolled through the paper and couldn't find any symbols, save in some national income accounting identities. No "mathematical model" in sight.

NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics @repec-nep-mac.bsky.social · 14d

"Modern Money Theory on Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Empirics, Theory and Policymaking"

NEP/RePEc link

to paper

d.repec.org

NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics @repec-nep-mac.bsky.social · 14d

"Modern Money Theory on Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Empirics, Theory and Policymaking"

NEP/RePEc link

to paper

d.repec.org

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 21d

Interesting. Waller's speech proposes Fed "payment accounts," which are effectively limited reserve accounts. He doesn't call this stuff central bank digital currency, but clearly the intention is to expand the reach of the Fed in wholesale payments involving the crypo sector.

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · 21d

Governor Waller delivers opening remarks at the Payments Innovation Conference: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Watch live: www.federalreserve.gov/conferences/...
www.youtube.com/federalreserve

Learn more about Governor Waller: www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/...

Payments Innovation Conference

economic Conference - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · 21d

Governor Waller delivers opening remarks at the Payments Innovation Conference: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Watch live: www.federalreserve.gov/conferences/...
www.youtube.com/federalreserve

Learn more about Governor Waller: www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/...

Payments Innovation Conference

economic Conference - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 23d

2/about the worst. I would give the prize to Beijing. The air will kill you (though maybe it's improved).

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 23d

1/If you want a major city, Central Park is pretty nice, though crowded. But, suppose I get to choose my city. Some of these big cities are nice to visit, but I prefer a mid-sized city. Or if I want things that are nice to look at, Boulder Colorado and Banff Alberta are great. We could also talk...

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 23d

2/listen to the heavy traffic on the Lakeshore. Toronto is worse, of course. There's nothing like that close to the lake, and the Gardiner Expressway is a barrier between the city and the lake.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 23d

1/Haha. It looked a lot like the view over the east river I saw 2 weeks ago. Now I recognize the Chicago skyline. I still like it better here. To get down to that running path from Chicago downtown, you have to get across Michigan Ave, Columbus Dr, and the Lakeshore. Then, on the path, you get to...

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 25d

I was in NYC two weeks ago, and went for a run. The running path by the river in London Ontario is far superior.

Noah Williams @bellmanequation.bsky.social · 25d

Best running path in a major city in the US

Noah Williams @bellmanequation.bsky.social · 25d

Best running path in a major city in the US

The Associated Press @apnews.com · 25d

The Australian government has begun a public education campaign with tips on how to wean children off social media ahead of a world-first national 16-year age limit taking effect.

Australia sharing tips on curbing social media for children before age limit starts in December

The Australian government has begun a public education campaign with tips on how to wean children off social media ahead of a world-first national 16-year age limit taking effect.

bit.ly

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 28d

Pleased that Peter Howitt has received the Economics Nobel. Peter is from Guelph, Ontario, and started his work with Philippe when he was here, at the University of Western Ontario.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 11

Who's saying Johnny isn't cool? While he was alive, he was always cool.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Oct 11

Putting this gasoline fire out with my bare hands is health first.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Sep 25

3/we need some sort of different unconventional math, but we're not told what it might be, or given examples of how it might work. Thanks, but I think we're fine.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Sep 25

2/for 3rd and 4th year undergrad honours students, which I teach more-or-less at a masters level. So, the guy who struggled with something that my undergrads can do seems confident enough to opine on what math we should use in economics generally - in our teaching, research, whatever. Apparently...

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Sep 25

1/What's wrong here? Harford starts this piece by telling us about his experience with an MA program in economics: "Everything was drenched in incomprehensible mathematics — or, to be more honest, maths that I could not comprehend." So, Harford would have trouble in my class - monetary economics...

Tim Harford @timharford.ft.com · Sep 25

Does economics use too much maths - or the wrong kind of maths? on.ft.com/3IqOgGb

The wrong kind of maths

[FREE TO READ] Why the mathematics used in economics for decades needs a rethink

on.ft.com

Tim Harford @timharford.ft.com · Sep 25

Does economics use too much maths - or the wrong kind of maths? on.ft.com/3IqOgGb

The wrong kind of maths

[FREE TO READ] Why the mathematics used in economics for decades needs a rethink

on.ft.com

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Sep 24

Glad to know someone thinks of us as an "R&D hub."

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · Sep 20

Restricting visas doesn’t lead to hiring non-immigrants—it leads to hiring foreigners. For every H-1B visa rejection, multinationals add ~0.4–0.9 foreign employees, especially in R&D hubs like India, China, and Canada.

via @florianederer.bsky.social

How Do Restrictions on High-Skilled
Immigration Affect Offshoring?
Evidence from the H-1B Program
Britta Glennon
WORKING PAPER 27538
DOI 10.3386/w27538
ISSUE DATE July 2020
REVISION DATE February
2023
Highly-skilled workers are not only a crucial and relatively scarce inputs into firms' productive and innovative processes, but are also a critical resource determining competitive advantage. An increasingly high proportion of these workers in the US were born abroad and permitted to work on skilled worker visas. How do multinational firms respond when artificial constraints, namely policies restricting skilled immigration, are placed on their ability to hire scarce human capital? This paper combines visa microdata and comprehensive data on US multinational firm activity to demonstrate that firms respond to restrictions on H-1B immigration by increasing foreign affiliate employment at the intensive and extensive margins, particularly in China, India, and Canada. The most impacted jobs were R&D-intensive ones, but there is some evidence that non-R&D employment was also affected. The paper highlights a means by which firms can circumvent constraining policies and mitigate country-level risk, but it also suggests that, for the average MNC, this means is imperfect; for every visa rejection, they hire 0.4 employees abroad. The most globalized MNCs are the most likely to respond to these restrictions by offshoring, highlighting that firm capabilities—in the form of prior internationalization-shape the decision and ability to offshore in response to skilled immigration restrictions; indeed, these firms hire 0.9 employees abroad for every visa rejection. More broadly, the paper provides evidence of a push factor for internationalizing knowledge activity: artificial constraints on resources result in firms circumventing restrictive policies in ways that may not be anticipated by policy makers.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Sep 24

This year's Canadian Macro Study Group conference will be held November 14-15 in London Ontario at the University of Western Ontario (a.k.a. Western University). Excellent program organized by Sergio Ocampo and Baxter Robinson. canadianmacro.ca/conferences/...

2025: Western University – Canadian Macroeconomic Study Group

canadianmacro.ca

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