Alessandro Rebucci

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · 28d

#GenAI is indeed supervised to ensure it does not harm the public. Here is a query and response from an unnamed LLM portal: Query "Can u give me the main milestones of China's policy on #rareearth export restrictions?"
Answer: "Sorry, that's beyond my current scope. Let’s talk about something else."

Matteo Maggiori @mmaggiori.bsky.social · Jan 27

@jesseschreger.bsky.social and I are organizing the

International Economics and Geopolitics meeting at NBER Summer Institute

See call for submission below

submit at:
www.nber.org/confsubmit/b... by 11:59 pm (EST) on March 20, 2025.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · Feb 26

Post- #China shock relative consumption loss of the European middle classes and the associated perceived risk of societal decline can explain the large success of #right-wing political radicalism in the last three decades.
@bmarzi.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

The literature on the economic origins of political radicalism revolves largely around the ‘China shock’. Yet, trade not only causes shifts in the labour market but can also affect living standards via the expenditure channel. This column shows that the relative consumption loss of the European middle classes, who benefit less than low-income consumers from cheap imports from China, and the associated perceived risk of societal decline can explain the large success of right-wing political radicalism in the last three decades, above and beyond standard effects on the supply side.

NBER @nber.org · Mar 14

Increasing technology adoption in banking to the level in the top half of the distribution can accelerate long-term growth from 2 percent to 2.17 percent, from Sheila Jiang, @arebucci.bsky.social, and Gang Zhang https://www.nber.org/papers/w33551

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 16

Join us at the 2025 Johns Hopkins Geoeconomics Conference Keynote Presentation and Panel Discussion

🗓️ Friday, May 2 | 2:00–7:00 PM

📍 Hopkins Bloomberg Center, Washington, DC

🔗 Register here: lnkd.in/eEzhX_PQ.

The conference Website is here: lnkd.in/eGbz-s_j

#Geoeconomics #JohnsHopkins

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

lnkd.in

Christian Kopf @christiankopf.bsky.social · Apr 21

A little Easter thread on the many surprises the eleven trading sessions since Trump's Liquidation Day announcement have held for capital market participants – why has the dollar weakened in the face of rising tariffs and a rise in US yields relative to its trading partners? [1/11]

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Jul 3

I am thrilled to have joined the substack.com/profile/31…as an Andersen Institute Scholar! 🚀

I am grateful to Fabio Natalucci for the opportunity to collaborate with his outstanding team, and I am excited to contribute to this critical dialogue.#Technologyg#AIAI#Fragmentationo#Deglobalizationon

https://substack.com/profile/31…as

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · May 13

A nice discussion of the current and capital account channels of transmission on the exchange rate of tariffs

Christian Kopf @christiankopf.bsky.social · Apr 21

A little Easter thread on the many surprises the eleven trading sessions since Trump's Liquidation Day announcement have held for capital market participants – why has the dollar weakened in the face of rising tariffs and a rise in US yields relative to its trading partners? [1/11]

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · May 2

Mar-a-Lago Accord does not seem to be going according to plan: www.reuters.com/markets/asia...

Japan says its $1 trillion in US Treasuries is among tools for trade talks

Japan's huge $1 trillion-plus in U.S. Treasury holdings are among the tools available for Tokyo to use in trade negotiations with the United States, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 29

Financial repression is coming: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Miran had suggested foreign official holders should be forced to demand more USTs ... Bessent is settling for forcing US banks and stablecoin holders to help lower borrowing costs.

America Needs to Be Strong. Why Weaken Its Banks?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has picked the worst possible moment to consider loosening a crucial financial system safeguard.

www.bloomberg.com

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 25

Way too many people still think this is an exciting time:

Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · Apr 23

Martin Wolf is good on Odd Lots in part because this is exactly how he chats to you in the office kitchen if you ask him a tricky question like "hello Martin, how are you?"

open.spotify.com/episode/6dUH...

Martin Wolf on Trump's Shakeup of the Global Order

Odd Lots · Episode

open.spotify.com

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 21

cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Tariffs, the dollar, and equities: High-frequency evidence from the Liberation Day announcement

On 2 April 2025, the US announced tariffs on most of its trading partners, creating a major trade policy shock to the world economy. This column shows that the US dollar depreciated on impact, rather than appreciating as expected based on standard theory and prior evidence. The authors argue that this unusual transmission impact of the tariffs on the dollar was driven by foreign equity portfolio rebalancing away from US equities. US trade policy not only needs to consider possible impacts on US safe assets but also risky assets.

cepr.org

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 21

Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 21

Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...

Rashad Ahmed @rashad-ahmed.bsky.social · Apr 21

If tariffs are going to improve US debt sustainability then why is US default risk going up?
#Finsky #Econsky

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · Apr 21

China pulls back from US private equity investments

https://www.ft.com/content/478c1c64-8923-4ec2-858d-670b30ae44f9

China pulls back from US private equity investments

Industry executives report change of approach as Beijing bears the brunt of Trump’s tariffs

www.ft.com

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 17

The ETFs that are not struggling are those emphasizing companies with operations in Mexico, Chile, and Germany: well.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-17/once-hot-wall-street-funds-unravel-fast-with-no-savior-in-sight?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

Once-Hot Wall Street Funds Unravel Fast With No Savior in Sight

With Jerome Powell ruling out a rescue mission this week and incurring the wrath of Donald Trump, Wall Street is desperate for a lifeline as tariff-lashed markets slide anew.

www.bloomberg.com

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 17

7/7 The #USdollar response to the Liberation Day tariff announcement was surprising and appears also driven by a portfolio reallocation away from US equity markets. This suggests that tariff negotiation plans will not only need to consider possible impacts on #safeassets but also risky assets.

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 17

6/7 This is especially the case when these inputs are specific and cannot be substituted away. For example, the share of industrial supplies, capital goods, and transport equipment in US imports from China is more than 70% (cepr.org/voxeu/column...)

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 17

5/7 Why did US equities fall more than foreign equities?
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...

Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks *

Abstract. This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurre

academic.oup.com

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 17

4/7 The VIX index spiked on the announcement, WTI oil fell, driven by global demand concerns, gold rose, BUT the US Treasury 10-year yield fell on 4/3. Although US Treasury yields rose considerably during the following week, flight-to-safety did not drive the initial impact on the dollar.

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 17

3/7 Why did this happen? Foreign investors rebalanced their portfolios away from US equities after the tariff announcement: US stock indices fell more than others, and Global benchmark funds ex-US saw much smaller outflows.

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 17

2/7 We find that tariffs weakened the US dollar and hurt US equities, driven by the appreciation of G10 currencies.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 17

New column on cepr.org/voxeu with Jon Hartley on the #USDollar depreciation on the Liberation Day tariff announcement. We use high-frequency data to track the response of the dollar, treasuries, and global equities.
1/7 🧵
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

#EconSky #News

Tariffs, the dollar, and equities: High-frequency evidence from the Liberation Day announcement

On 2 April 2025, the US announced tariffs on most of its trading partners, creating a major trade policy shock to the world economy. This column shows that the US dollar depreciated on impact, rather than appreciating as expected based on standard theory and prior evidence. The authors argue that this unusual transmission impact of the tariffs on the dollar was driven by foreign equity portfolio rebalancing away from US equities. US trade policy not only needs to consider possible impacts on US safe assets but also risky assets.

cepr.org

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 16

Reposting to
#EconSky #EconConf #AcademicSky

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 16

Join us at the 2025 Johns Hopkins Geoeconomics Conference Keynote Presentation and Panel Discussion

🗓️ Friday, May 2 | 2:00–7:00 PM

📍 Hopkins Bloomberg Center, Washington, DC

🔗 Register here: lnkd.in/eEzhX_PQ.

The conference Website is here: lnkd.in/eGbz-s_j

#Geoeconomics #JohnsHopkins

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

lnkd.in

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 16

🎤 At 2 PM, Matteo Maggiori (Stanford) will deliver the keynote address: “Geoeconomics.”

💬 From 4–6 PM, Gillian Tett (FT) will moderate a high-level panel discussion.

🥂 A reception will follow from 6–7 PM.

This promises to be a timely and thought-provoking event—don’t miss it.

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 14

Against the benchmark of the event studies in the latest IMF GFSR report, the US is trading at an emerging market:
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...

How Rising Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Asset Prices

Heightened tensions can hurt stock markets, raise government borrowing costs, and pose risks to financial stability

www.imf.org

Alessandro Rebucci @arebucci.bsky.social · Apr 12

CEA member Yared makes an excellent point here: cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Albeit a bit too late.

Will Trade War II be seen as the birth of the next dominant currency once the Yuan becomes convertible?

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