Alessandro Rebucci
@arebucci.bsky.social
Professor of Economics and Finance at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School. International finance and macroeconomics. Former IMF and IDB.
https://carey.jhu.edu/faculty/faculty-directory/alessandro-rebucci-phd
https://carey.jhu.edu/faculty/faculty-directory/alessandro-rebucci-phd
Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
April 21, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
7/7 The #USdollar response to the Liberation Day tariff announcement was surprising and appears also driven by a portfolio reallocation away from US equity markets. This suggests that tariff negotiation plans will not only need to consider possible impacts on #safeassets but also risky assets.
April 17, 2025 at 3:09 PM
7/7 The #USdollar response to the Liberation Day tariff announcement was surprising and appears also driven by a portfolio reallocation away from US equity markets. This suggests that tariff negotiation plans will not only need to consider possible impacts on #safeassets but also risky assets.
6/7 This is especially the case when these inputs are specific and cannot be substituted away. For example, the share of industrial supplies, capital goods, and transport equipment in US imports from China is more than 70% (cepr.org/voxeu/column...)
April 17, 2025 at 3:09 PM
6/7 This is especially the case when these inputs are specific and cannot be substituted away. For example, the share of industrial supplies, capital goods, and transport equipment in US imports from China is more than 70% (cepr.org/voxeu/column...)
5/7 Why did US equities fall more than foreign equities?
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks *
Abstract. This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurre
academic.oup.com
April 17, 2025 at 3:09 PM
5/7 Why did US equities fall more than foreign equities?
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
4/7 The VIX index spiked on the announcement, WTI oil fell, driven by global demand concerns, gold rose, BUT the US Treasury 10-year yield fell on 4/3. Although US Treasury yields rose considerably during the following week, flight-to-safety did not drive the initial impact on the dollar.
April 17, 2025 at 3:09 PM
4/7 The VIX index spiked on the announcement, WTI oil fell, driven by global demand concerns, gold rose, BUT the US Treasury 10-year yield fell on 4/3. Although US Treasury yields rose considerably during the following week, flight-to-safety did not drive the initial impact on the dollar.
3/7 Why did this happen? Foreign investors rebalanced their portfolios away from US equities after the tariff announcement: US stock indices fell more than others, and Global benchmark funds ex-US saw much smaller outflows.
April 17, 2025 at 3:09 PM
3/7 Why did this happen? Foreign investors rebalanced their portfolios away from US equities after the tariff announcement: US stock indices fell more than others, and Global benchmark funds ex-US saw much smaller outflows.
2/7 We find that tariffs weakened the US dollar and hurt US equities, driven by the appreciation of G10 currencies.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.
April 17, 2025 at 3:09 PM
2/7 We find that tariffs weakened the US dollar and hurt US equities, driven by the appreciation of G10 currencies.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.